With the NFL Draft less than two weeks away, it’s time to check the ADP price tag on rookie skill position players and if they are values in fantasy football or not. We’re using Underdog best ball ADP and our rankings, comparing the two to see whether players are properly valued or overpriced.

Fantasy Football ADP Price Check for Rookies

Running Backs

Jeremiyah Love

• Underdog ADP: 17.0
• Positional Rank: 11
• Verdict: Properly Valued

Analysts slapping Jeremiyah Love with the “Generational Talent” label, and rumors continuing to swirl that the Notre Dame prospect will be a top-10 pick, have landed yet another high-end rookie rusher in the first couple of rounds in drafts. But recent history should keep us from pushing Love’s ADP any higher.

• Ashton Jeanty, 2025—RB6 (ADP), RB11 (EoS Rank)
• Jonathon Brooks*, 2024—RB35, RB114
• Bijan Robinson, 2023—RB4, RB9
• Breece Hall, 2022—RB23, RB42
• Najee Harris, 2021—RB11, RB3

* - Coming off injury

As we’ve learned (the hard way at times), fantasy production comes at the intersection of talent and situation. Sure, there’s no question (or fewer questions) about Love’s on-field ability. However, out of the first 10 teams drafting this year, just three ended the season with an above-average run-block win rate. And two of the three have established starters. So, for now, taking him at cost would be reasonable, but I’d be wary of letting the price go any higher.

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Jadarian Price

• Underdog ADP: 108.0
• Positional Rank: 36
• Verdict: Slightly Overpriced

Before you get upset at the call, I’ll give two caveats. One, “slightly” is doing most of the heavy lifting. And, two, admittedly, the answer comes in anticipation of what’s to come. Let’s look back at the last few RBs with similar ADPs.

• 2025: Javonte Williams (107), Austin Ekeler (109)
• 2024: Chase Brown (108), Jerome Ford (111)
• 2023: Antonio Gibson (107), Zach Charbonnet (112)

The “ambiguous backfield” concept isn’t anything new. Gamers prey (and pray) on those situations to break in their favor. Jadarian Price’s size, speed and per-touch metrics would push him into an RB1 given the opportunity. But his projected draft slot has the potential to land him in a committee. And, we’ll crown him as the rusher to bet on, driving up his cost throughout the offseason. So I say “slightly” for now, but expect the hype only to build once we see him in training camp.

Jonah Coleman

• Underdog ADP: 133.3
• Positional Rank: 41
• Verdict: Slightly Properly Valued

If Jonah Coleman proves me wrong, blame Dwain.

“There have been 55 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 68 and 78 since 2017, with 36% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

• Top-six finishes: 7%
• Top-12 finishes: 13%
• Top-24 finishes: 36%
• Top-36 finishes: 53%

Skill set: Potential Every-Down RB.”

The film and analytics agree that the former Huskie could be a three-down back. But he lacks the skill set to maintain a starter role. But as a 12th-round pick, that’s OK! As Dwain noted in his write-up of Coleman, we’ve got a 50-50 shot at an RB3 result. With an RB41 price tag before the draft, the chance for Coleman to outkick his ADP is worth the cost.

Mike Washington

• Underdog ADP: 136.9
• Positional Rank: 43
• Verdict: Slightly Over Valued

There are two scenarios I can envision for Mike Washington, and neither gets me excited about his ADP.

The first situation is where he lands on a team with little competition. Let’s say the Seahawks, for example. We talk ourselves into Washington as an RB1, while sweeping under the rug his lack of a role in the passing game and liability as a pass blocker. The offseason progresses, Seattle adds a veteran, we get news Zach Charbonnet will return during the season, and Washington’s projected workload reduces before Week 1.

The second situation drops Washington into a backfield with options already in place. I’ll use the Buccaneers here, for the sake of argument. Yes, his straight-line speed at his size would be a nice complement to Bucky Irving. But, while next to lesser talent, Washington’s designed rush shares never topped 50% in college. His role from a week-to-week standpoint would be difficult to trust, which, again, would make him an overvalued selection in the 12th round.

Wide Receivers

Carnell Tate

• Underdog ADP: 58.5
• Positional Rank: 29
• Verdict: Properly Valued

So, it’s a toss-up as to who’s the WR1 of this class. By our Big Board, Jordyn Tyson has the crown. But Carnell Tate has the top spot in the Rookie Super Model. In either case, let’s use the same logic applied to Jeremiyah Love to see if drafters are approaching the top of the receiver class the right way.

• Travis Hunter, 2025 – WR30 (ADP), WR97* (EoS Rank)
• Marvin Harrison Jr., 2024 – WR9, WR30
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 2023 – WR39, WR48
• Drake London, 2022 – WR42, WR31
• Ja'Marr Chase, 2021 – WR29, WR5

If team context, like offensive line strength, mattered for RBs, the same applies to WRs. Except now, we have more people involved. Pass catchers not only have more competition, but the quality of targets becomes a factor. In other words, not only does the variability in ADP seem reasonable, but also the market’s hesitancy to elevate Tate into the Top 24 until after the draft.

Makai Lemon

• Underdog ADP: 64.8
• Positional Rank: 32
• Verdict: Properly Valued

Without knowing draft capital or landing spot, we should be asking ourselves two questions regarding Makai Lemon’s cost:

• Is his contextualized collegiate production similar to Tate’s (or Tyson’s)?
• Can we see him excelling independent of draft outcome?

If you can answer yes to both, then the former Trojan falling a few spots behind Tate shouldn’t be an issue. Luckily, we agree with this standpoint.  

However, the larger point isn’t about comparing our tools. It’s finding a rapid process for comparing prospects. While some would take Lemon’s high slot rate and typecast him as an interior-only player, both the analytics and tape highlight there’s more to his game, justifying the rank.

Jordyn Tyson

• Underdog ADP: 71.6
• Positional Rank: 35
• Verdict: Properly Valued

As I mentioned, there’s a dispute as to who’s at the top of the receiver food chain. I don’t have a dog in the fight, so, of course, I pulled what data we’ve got on Jordyn Tyson to compare the two prospects.

• Career Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt: 54th percentile (Tate), 78th (Tyson)
• Production Rating: 84, 86
• Targeted QB Passer Rating: 79th, 54th
• aDOT: 12.9, 13.3

Sure, it’s simplistic. That’s the point. Similar to the Lemon discussion, there’s no discernible difference between the two incoming rookies. And yet, we can get a round discount on Tyson. Now, his lingering injuries and lack of athletic testing are driving the gap in price. However, if you’re risk-averse, then betting on talent (and his subsequent draft capital) shouldn’t be an issue.

Tight End

Kenyon Sadiq

• Underdog ADP: 134.6
• Positional Rank: 14
• Verdict: Properly Valued

Since 2015, there have been 21 rookie TEs to run a route on more than 50% of their team’s dropbacks. So, about two per year get on the field in a meaningful way. Even better, no TE drafted in the first two rounds has exited their rookie year with a target share less than 10%. So, Kenyon Sadiq, with a first-round grade, is on the path to a productive first season at his current ADP.

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