
Ian Hartitz releases his weekly manifesto, which features bold predictions, trends, players who boomed and disappointed, and so much more.

And just like that: Week 8 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
This week? 11! Because the NFL doesn't sleep, and old WRs keep getting traded to good teams. THIS LEAGUE.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Kansas City made its expected splash into the trade market by sending a 5th-rounder that can become a 4th to the Titans in exchange for longtime stud WR DeAndre Hopkins. The trade comes with the Chiefs down three of their top WRs due to injury and finally lands Patrick Mahomes the sort of X receiver who should be able to consistently win one-on-one on the outside.
The move was necessary in order to hopefully jumpstart a passing game that hasn't been nearly as prolific as in past years.
Mahomes passing TDs in the first six games of the season:
While Hopkins is currently averaging career-low numbers across the board when it comes to counting stats, he's been stuck inside the Titans' sad excuse for an NFL offense dealing with the Will Levis experience. Expecting peak production out of a 32-year-old veteran with ongoing knee issues isn't exactly a recipe for success, but then again we just saw JuJu Smith-Schuster put up a 7-130-0 receiving line despite seemingly not having knees for years.
At least in 2023, Hopkins still showed a solid ability to separate and make the occasional fantastic contested catch. Overall, ESPN's "Open Rating" dubbed Hopkins as a top-five separator alongside Garrett Wilson and A.J. Brown last season; we shouldn't dismiss the potential for the artist known as Nuk to rise up to the top of this baren WR depth chart in a hurry.
Ultimately, we'll need to see just how willing the Chiefs are to hand Hopkins a full-time role, but he offers WR3 upside with the potential for WR2 spike weeks inside of an offense dying for some consistent receiver production. Adding a receiver like Hopkins doesn't overly downgrade guys like Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce due to the potential for the passing game as a whole to operate with a bit better efficiency. Still, top-tier ELITE outcomes for both do seem a bit further away with newfound high-end target competition in town.
Meanwhile, in Tennessee, Calvin Ridley becomes someone who could push for double-digit targets on a weekly basis. Of course, it's hardly a given that those amount to much: Ridley is tied with Amari Cooper for the most unrealized air yards (510) in the NFL through seven weeks, meaning he's had a LOT of opportunity left on the field largely due to subpar QB play.
It's tough to move any WR likely projected for eight-plus targets too far down the ranks, but Week 8's matchup with an improving Lions secondary still doesn't exactly look like a must-start moment. Ridley deserves a slight upgrade into mid-to-low-end WR3 territory for the rest of the season; just realize the most likely answer to which pass-catcher to start in Tennessee will probably continue to be: “No.”
Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell no!
Without further adieu: Let's get weird.
Players highlighted last week and results: Malik Nabers (4-41-0), Kyren Williams (21-76-2), and Noah Brown (1-16-0).
Barring any setbacks, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa will return to the gridiron on Sunday against the Cardinals.
It's hard to understate just how bad "The Greatest Show on Surf" has been to start the 2024 season, but here's a shot:
Points per game:
The fantasy results have accordingly been absolutely miserable. Early-round WRs Tyreek Hill (PPR WR46 per game) and Jaylen Waddle (WR62) have been consistent busts, while De'Von Achane went from looking like the best RB in fantasy (RB3 and RB2 in Weeks 1-2) to someone not overly fun to even FLEX in recent weeks.
This brings us to today's bajillion-dollar question: Can the return of Tua simply fix matters for everyone involved?
I'm optimistic. As damning as the last month has been for Mike McDaniel's offensive wizard stock, we still have two solid years of evidence telling us that this is one of the league's most prolific offenses whenever No. 1 is healthy enough to suit up under center. Seriously: The Dolphins posted top-6 numbers in EPA per play and dropback during the 2022-23 seasons while scoring more points than any team other than the Cowboys, 49ers, Lions, Eagles, and Bills. Neither Tyler Huntley, Tim Boyle, nor Skylar Thompson have ever been confused with an even league-average QB, so even something close to 2022-23 levels of efficiency from Tua has the potential to take this group from horrible to at least above-average in a hurry.
The upcoming schedule should help matters as well:
Tua is someone who should abso-lutely be scooped off the waiver wire if he happens to be available in your league, Tyreek is BACK to familiar top-5 treatment at the WR position, Waddle is an upside WR3 at worst, and don't look now, but Achane could get back to resembling the sort of league-winning asset managers thought they had after the first two weeks of the season.
Seriously: Achane's Week 7 utilization coming off the bye was borderline erotic despite the entire Miami backfield being healthy:
Hell, maybe even Jonnu Smith builds off his TE2 finish and season-high 78% route rate. The possibilities are endless ahead of their Week 8 matchup with the Cardinals' 24th-ranked scoring defense.
It's crazy how much a simple change at QB can change the trajectory for everyone involved, ya know? Speaking of …
This is not necessarily a given in the long term. Yes, Deshaun Watson (Achilles) is done for the season. Also yes, the Browns curiously elevated Dorian Thompson-Robinson to QB2 status prior to Week 7, but a finger injury could potentially keep him out of the lineup in the short term
Even if DTR does, in fact, get the eventual nod under center, it's hard to think he'll last too long considering how poorly he's performed with his opportunities. Overall, Thompson-Robinson ranks dead last in yards per attempt and EPA+CPOE composite score among 55 qualified QBs over the past two seasons; Cleveland somehow found themselves one of the VERY few signal-callers actually worse than Watson.
That said: Jameis Winston has been named the starting QB ahead of the team's Week 8 matchup with the Ravens. I wouldn't necessarily expect real-life fireworks; the Browns' 1-6 record and -56-point differential reflect the reality that this team isn't exactly a slight upgrade at QB away from competing for the division title. The Browns do rank 31st in my supporting cast rating after all.
Still, Winson has managed to provide some seriously solid moments over the years despite plenty of bad as well. This is demonstrated through his consistently positive EPA per dropback numbers, which have never ranked worse than 16th in a season with at least 400 dropbacks (per the great Kevin Cole):
Of course, it's far from a given that Kevin Stefanski pulls a Bruce Arians and lets Jameis go full Jameis. The team's season-low -9% dropback over expected rate last week reflects the reality that this offense probably wants to feature Nick Chubb and the run game more moving forward.
Ultimately, the REAL winner here should be TE David Njoku. The PPR TE3 after Watson was lost for the season last year, the YAC monster has always made a habit of making the most out of his opportunities, and now he should have more of those than ever if his 14-target Week 7 performance was any indication of what lies ahead. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs this season; fire up Njoku as a legit top-6 option at the position ahead of this potential smash spot.
Otherwise, Winston deserves to be scooped off waiver wires in the hope that he could be allowed to go full YOLO/DGAF mode at some point, a scenario that would also lead to WRs Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy working their way into FLEX-plus consideration on a more consistent basis.
Oh, what's that? You want more discourse on complementary WRs suddenly being thrust into bigger roles? Say less!
Bucs WR Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle) is done for the season, while Mike Evans (hamstring) is expected to be out through the team's Week 11 bye after re-aggravating the existing issue on Monday night.
This leaves the Bucs with a trio of underwhelming options to help replace most people's idea of one of the league's better duos at the position:
McMillan deserves to be the waiver wire priority thanks to his potential to soak up Godwin's fantasy-friendly targets from the slot. Godwin was one of only four WRs with double-digit screen targets prior to getting injured, plus Mayfield has thrown to his slot receiver more than all but three other QBs this season while averaging the league's fifth-highest passer rating while doing so.
That said: There's a chance that no parties involved exactly emerge as weekly must-start options in the absence of Godwin and Evans. Kudos to Mayfield for working as fantasy's overall QB2 (!) through seven weeks, but it'd make a helluva lot of sense if his production cratered far from easy matchups with the Falcons and (especially) the Chiefs and 49ers before the team's Week 11 bye.
There's also the potential for TE Cade Otton to emerge as the real winner in fantasy land during the short term. He's quietly started earning more consistent work in the passing game after a quiet first two weeks of the season:
Otton has always played a near full-time role and done a relatively good job with his opportunities, but he hasn't been overly featured due to the presence of more qualified pass catchers elsewhere on the offense—something that sadly is no longer a problem.
Alright, enough sad injury talk: Now let's break down whether or not some of Week 7's more surprising boom performances were a flash in the pan, or if they're here to stay!
The following players ripped off sterling top-five PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.
Steelers QB Russell Wilson (QB3): Pittsburgh's new QB1 showed off a still-solid moon ball on his way to beating up the (very injured) Jets defense to the tune of 264 yards and 2 scores through the air. That said, DangeRuss led a Steelers offense that posted a typical run-heavy -13% dropback rate over expected. We also shouldn't necessarily expect too many more QB sneaks for TDs. Clearly the Steelers are better off with Russ under center (hand up, I was wrong), but his fantasy upside is too contingent on George Pickens winning jump balls to trust as more than a low-floor QB2 moving forward. RULING: Fraud (at least in fantasy land).
Broncos RB Javonte Williams (RB5): Williams had finished outside the position's top-24 backs in all but two weeks prior to his Week 7 explosion. Now, positive blowout game script certainly helped matters, but Williams also deserves credit for easily posting his best efficiency of the season (6.3 yards per carry) on the ground. He's racked up 18, 18, 9, and most recently 17 touches over the past four weeks in an offense that surely doesn't want to put TOO much on Bo Nix's plate if they can help it. There's still a low floor here in matchups that feature the Broncos down early, although that is certainly less of a risk than usual ahead of next week's home matchup with the Panthers. Ruling: Not a fraud at least ahead of Week 8, but maybe sell high before back-to-back tough spots afterward in Baltimore and Kansas City.
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (WR3): The former first-round pick was already putting some groovy routes on film even before last week's breakout. Clearly Bateman's 4-121-1 explosion proved that he can boom in the right matchup, although Monday night marked the sixth game in seven tries that he finished with 5 or fewer targets. A potential short-term absence to Zay Flowers (ankle) would help matters, but as we've seen all year in this offense (looking at you, Mark Andrews): There's not enough consistent overall pass-game volume to expect week-to-week booms from pretty much any pass catcher. Ruling: Fraud in terms of Bateman being someone fantasy managers can trust as more than a boom-or-bust FLEX.
Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith (TE2): On the one hand, Joonu has racked up 8 and 7 targets in his last two games, with the latter post-bye performance also including a season-best 78% route rate. On the other hand, Tua Tagovailoa has never made a habit of overly leaning on his TE, and I also have a hard time reading too heavily into Mike McDaniel's post-bye strategy considering Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for just four targets. Smith has always possessed the sort of high-end YAC ability to make the most out of minimal opportunities; it seems more likely that he'll have to do that moving forward as opposed to a large weekly target share suddenly being on the table. Ruling: Fraud.
Now let's move on to some of the most disappointing RBs of the (still) young season!
I looked at PFF's expected fantasy points model as well as simply some of the league's touch leaders without too many TDs to get an idea of which RBs might be on the verge of falling into the end zone a bit more often in the upcoming weeks.
*Law and Order music*
These are their stories:
Steelers RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren: Two of just 11 RBs scoring at least 10 PPR points BELOW expected this season, both Najee and Warren are good candidates to find the end zone a bit more often moving forward in an offense that:
1.) Looked a lot better with Russell Wilson under center
2.) Will no longer be splitting fantasy-friendly goal-line touches with dual-threat QB Justin Fields.
Najee in particular deserves a lot of credit for running hard as hell over the past two weeks, but don't count out a second-half emergence from Warren either; the overqualified RB2 racked up a season-high 14 touches last week and finally looked a bit more like his usual explosive self after playing through lower-body injuries for most of the first six weeks.
Packers RB Josh Jacobs: Green Bay has fed Jacobs 120 rush attempts this season, yet he's found the end zone just once on the ground. The next-closest RB in terms of carries with 1 or fewer rushing TDs? De'Von Achane … at 71. The Packers' high-priced free agent addition has largely looked good with his new employer; it'd make a lot of sense if this number BOOMS in upcoming weeks, starting this Sunday against the Jaguars' 30th-ranked scoring defense.
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane: The man mentioned above should not only benefit from the return of Tua Tagovailoa under center, but also the potential for 2024 efficiency numbers to get a bit closer to what we saw last year. Consider: Week 7 (5.1 YPC) was the first time all year Achane averaged more than even 4.4 yards per rush attempt after breaking the f*cking single-season record as a rookie. The Dolphins have happily fed Achane a team-high 4 goal-line carries, and he already has as many games with 15-plus opportunities this year as he did in 2023 (4). A return to prominence by last year’s top overall scoring offense should go hand-in-hand with their RB1 booming more consistently down the stretch.
Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins: While Dobbins has skirted into the end zone three times this season, he's had to largely hit big runs to do so. Overall, Dobbins has just *one* carry inside the 5-yard line through seven weeks of action despite having the 11th-most total rush attempts at the position (95). Don't expect the Chargers' 26th-ranked scoring offense to suddenly overflow with fantasy-friendly goal-line opportunities, but at a minimum more consistently positive game scripts should be on the way in upcoming matchups with the Saints, Browns, and Titans.
Let's stick with today's overall depressing tone by moving on to WRs who have simply not made the most out of their opportunities this season.
Note that this section was inspired by Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has racked up quite a few targets this year … yet not managed to do much of anything with them.
Overall, four WRs really stick out in terms of their failure to put up fantasy-friendly numbers despite having the sort of workload that most players at the position can only dream of possessing.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton: While there wasn’t much Sutton could do about his Week 7 goose-egg considering, you know, he didn't get targeted once, things weren't exactly going stellar before then. Overall, the 29-year-old veteran is averaging a career-low 5.9 yards per target and has yet to reach even 70 yards in a game. No WR has scored more PPR points BELOW expectation than Sutton (-31.1) this season. Of course, the Bo Nix experience probably deserves most of the blame here: Only Anthony Richardson (-11.3%) has a lower completion percentage over expected than Nix (-4.1%) this season. Here's to hoping Week 8's matchup with the Panthers' league-worst scoring defense serves as the sort of get-right spot this duo badly needs.
Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson: Robinson has the second-most targets in the entire NFL ... and is the WR28 in PPR points per game. His 104-reception pace has helped maintain a decent enough floor in full-PPR scoring, but we're talking about a guy who has 5 games with at least 9 targets and under 75 receiving yards this season–no other NFL player has more than 3. The return of Malik Nabers and status quo under center will probably limit the potential for Robinson to make more out of his opportunities than he has to this point, although the bar certainly isn't high: His average of 4.5 yards per target is the single-lowest mark among 69 players with at least 30 pass-game opportunities this season.
Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.: You can blame Kyler Murray's depressingly low middle-of-the-field passing rate or failure to find Marv when he's breaking wide open deep downfield: Either way the early returns from the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 4 overall pick have been rough. Three consecutive performances with under 40 scoreless yards (one cut short by a concussion) have highlighted the fact that Arizona's new No. 1 WR simply isn't producing at the moment, but the returns are particularly disappointing considering the volume at hand. Overall, Harrison has a solid enough 60% WOPR this year (20th at the position), yet already has four finishes outside the position's top-50 PPR performers. Here's to hoping Week 8's matchup with the Dolphins yields better results, but potentially finding higher-percentage ways to get Marv the ball would be a good start: Only Keon Coleman (33%) has had a higher percentage of his targets come on go routes and fades than Harrison (25.5%) among the league's 72 most-targeted WRs this season.
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The 2023 first-round pick has as many targets as Stefon Diggs as well as more than guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Terry McLaurin this season. Hell, JSN even beats out Diggs and Chase when it comes to air yards: There has been plenty of opportunity on the table, but nothing much has happened anyway. This is what makes expecting JSN to suddenly boom in the potential absence of DK Metcalf (knee) tough to fully get behind; there's no reason why he shouldn't have been doing more already anyway. Ultimately, ESPN's sixth-worst WR in Open Rating has struggled to make his presence felt as a separator or after the catch this season; don't expect a meaningful boom on Sunday against a Bills defense that is one of just 10 units to allow fewer than 30 PPR points per game to opposing WR rooms this season.
Step it up, fellas. But if not, fantasy managers will need to make up those points elsewhere…
There are no byes in Week 8, for some reason, meaning everyone should have a QB ready to go ahead of Sunday barring injury (sorry, Jayden Daniels managers, but hey, check out Matthew Stafford or Marcus Mariota if things don't work out).
That said: Now might be a pretty good time to get ahead on future waiver wire madness at the position if your bench depth allows it. Specifically, fantasy managers of the following QBs should look to target the following one-week replacements ahead of the next month of action:
Fun times (hopefully), but now let's focus on the present and break down some of the biggest potential advantages ahead of Week 8.
Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."
Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.
I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.
With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses: