Brian Thomas Jr. Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Brian Thomas Jr. Scouting Report

Underdog ADP: 66 overall (WR38), rookie WR4
WR Rookie Model Percentile: 70%, Tier 3

There’s a fairly consensus top three atop the pass-catcher rankings ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU WR Malik Nabers and Washington WR Rome Odunze in some order.

And then there are the other guys – arguably headlined by another LSU WR in Brian Thomas Jr., who was actually a higher-rated recruit (4-star, No. 9 overall WR) than Nabers (WR19) and Harrison (WR21) in that loaded 2021 class.

Surprising but true: The 6’3”, 209-pound gargantuan with 4.3 speed isn’t exactly an underdog story. Thomas made this abundantly clear courtesy of his breathtaking 2023 performance as a top dog (tiger?) inside of college football’s No. 1 ranked scoring offense:

Thomas among 148 qualified Power 5 WRs in 2023

PFF receiving grade: 75.1 (tied for No. 53)
Passer rating when targeted: 148.8 (No. 2)
Receiving yards: 1,177 (No. 10)
Receiving TD: 17 (No. 1)
Yards per route run: 2.61 (No. 18)
Yards per reception: 17.3 (No. 21)
Targets per route run: 19.3% (tied for No. 114)

While not all of those advanced metrics paint a perfect picture, Thomas deserves plenty of credit for emerging as an explosive playmaker inside an LSU offense with other high-end avenues to go with the football. The man scored a TD every four catches last year for crying out loud; his 17 scores on the season were the most by a Power 5 receiver since DeVonta Smith (23, lol) back in 2020.

Of course, Thomas didn’t get a whole lot going on the stat sheet until his final year at LSU, and there are some questions regarding how well his game will translate to the next level.

This brings us to today’s topic: What are the pros and cons of Thomas and what should we make of him as a fantasy prospect ahead of 2024 and beyond? Let’s dive in.

Pros and Cons of Brian Thomas Jr.

Pros

Size-speed freak

Humans standing 6-foot-3 and weighing 209 pounds shouldn’t be able to run a 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds, but Thomas isn’t like most mortals. Overall, his 122.2 speed score ranks in the 99th percentile at the position; the man’s 10-yard split (1.5) was a mere 0.01 second removed from NFL Combine 40-yard champ Xavier Worthy (1.49) for crying out loud.

Throw in a 38.5-inch vertical, and Thomas stands out as a freak among freaks: His 9.97 out of 10.00 RAS score ranks 10th out of 3,063 WRs from 1987 to 2024.

This combination of elite size and speed made Thomas a big play waiting to happen. Massive games against Florida State (7-142-1), Arkansas (5-133-2), Ole Miss (8-124-3) and Florida (6-150-2) demonstrated the weekly upside on hand for the 21-year-old talent. Thomas proved capable of supplying some pretty damn good YAC skillz for a man his size as well.

Good things simply happened when Jayden Daniels decided to sling the rock in Thomas’ direction. Only Michigan WR Roman Wilson (58%) had a higher percentage of his targets go for TDs or first downs than Thomas (56%) in 2023.

Of course, Thomas has one particular method for getting free that profiles as his trump card of sorts at the next level.

Black belt in going long

Thomas’ speed was particularly evident on go routes. He clocked the fastest time (22.91 MPH) when going deep at the 2024 NFL Combine – and this feature was repeatedly evident on film during his time down by the Bayou.

Why did LSU rely so heavily on deep balls and specifically slot fades last season? Well, probably because both Nabers and Thomas possessed the sort of speed to put the fear of God into opposing defensive backs of all shapes and sizes.

Failure to send safety help to either proved to be a borderline death sentence in 2023; this sort of high-end field-stretching ability is why popular comps for Thomas have ranged from D.K. Metcalf to Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

My personal favorite comps:

Skinny D.K. Metcalf
Gen-Z Braylon Edwards
Upper-middle-class man's D.J. Chark
Martavis Bryant in the nicest way possible
Christian Watson with functioning hamstrings
Fire truck with jet-powered engines

It obviously remains to be seen whether or not he’ll ever fully reach the tantalizing ceiling here; just realize the latest stud LSU product profiles as an immediate lid-lifter at the next level, even if he fails to ever become a true elite No. 1 WR at the next level.

Cons

A bit of a one-year wonder

As great as Thomas’ 2023 campaign was, his numbers don’t look great when we examine the whole picture. It’s not like he was buried behind scrubs on the LSU depth chart during his first two seasons in college, but then again both Kayshon Boutte and Trey Palmer only wound up amounting to sixth-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.

This is the primary issue in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie WR Super Model: Thomas’ career-adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA, 0.66) is the primary reason why he’s closer to the WR5 than WR3 in terms of overall model score.

Additionally, Thomas’ 2023 performance wasn’t all roses. Per Yahoo’s Nate Tice:

“Drops are an issue with Thomas, and so is catching the football through contact and more physical defenders (7.4% drop rate in college, 20th percentile ranking since 2019). He can make catches away from his body, but he is not that mega ball-winner you might expect from his size; think of Thomas Jr. as more of an oversized wing in basketball than a post player banging down low.”

Thomas still flashed the ability to make some truly awesome contested snags, but it wasn’t exactly an every-week phenomenon. This problem is compounded by the reality that Thomas is…

Not exactly a route-running technician

This isn’t to suggest that Thomas CAN’T pull off a crisp route from time to time, but similar to his contested-catch goodness, this part of his game wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders as consistently as you’d hope.

From NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein:

“Thomas will occasionally go through the motions as a route-runner, but the bend, athleticism and speed needed to get better are all in the toolbox. He’s elusive against press and can uncover quickly underneath, but he still needs to improve intermediate routes and play a little more physically when crowded to become well-rounded.”

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler echoes this sentiment, noting: “Crisper cuts and improved leverage will help him create better separation out of breaks.”

To be fair: Thomas wasn’t really asked to run a bunch of routes other than slants, gos and curls – kudos to him for being pretty damn good at each. It’d make sense if the athletically gifted 21-year-old improves in this facet of his game with more on-field experience.

Still, Thomas’ relative lack of success vs. press coverage profiles as at least a bit of a red flag; failure to add enhanced route-running nuance and/or strength is where the more busty comps like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and late-career D.J. Chark make some sense.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Brian Thomas Jr.

Landing spot could be the primary determining factor in whether or not Thomas falls from his current (mostly) consensus standing as this class’ No. 4 WR.

The Bills? Suddenly Thomas looks like a locked-in top-10 rookie draft selection. Note that Nabers suggested this landing spot, and Josh Allen named Thomas first when discussing some of the draft’s top incoming WRs.

The Chargers? Yeah, that’d be pretty awesome too, even if elite target volume could be tough to come by in this likely run-first attack. This is Matthew Freedman’s projected landing spot in his latest Fantasy Life mock draft (23rd overall).

Both of those spots would give Thomas the chance to work as a legit No. 1 WR with a proven QB; things get tougher if we see a squad like the Buccaneers, Lions, Ravens, Saints, or Rams make the move. This isn’t to suggest Thomas couldn’t produce some early booms in these still-solid offenses, but the chances of him being pigeon-holed as more of a one-trick field-stretching pony early in his career would be heightened.

Ultimately, I agree with Dwain’s conclusion: Thomas is a walking, talking boom-or-bust WR4 ahead of 2024 – there are enough concerns about his relative late-career boom and overall rawness as a prospect to warrant the gap between him and the position’s top-three receivers.

While his current status as the group’s WR4 is fair considering the tools at hand, I’d be willing to have guys like Xavier Worthy and Troy Franklin jump him in the ranks should they get the better draw in terms of eventual landing spot.

Brian Thomas Jr. Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook