Ian Hartitz delivers Week 17 fantasy football bold predictions.

Week 16 has come and gone. We saw 16 NFL games that brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.

Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.

Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.

What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from last week that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh!" I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:

• Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
• Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
• Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
• Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
• Other random shit that managed to tilt fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes

Let's kick things off with an example of a great day that could have been absolutely nuclear … 

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Xavier Worthy was so close to an absolutely MASSIVE game

The Chiefs' first-round rookie has gained 151 total yards and scored 2 TDs over the past two weeks. Xavier Worthy hasn't exactly lit the league on fire during his debut season, but there have still been plenty of nice moments.

Unfortunately, so far the defining memory of Worthy's rookie year is his plethora of near-miss TDs, many of the deep-ball variety. Week 16's win over the Texans was no exception, as the 21-year-old speedster just barely failed to get his second foot down in bounds on what would've been a 24-yard score and dropped a potential 9-yard TD.

Worthy has now caught just *one* of 8 end-zone targets this season. He's hauled in only 3 of 17 targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield, and 1 of 10 targets chucked 30-plus yards deep. The latter mixtape is particularly sheeshy.

Sadly, Worthy wasn't the only receiver to leave some yards on the field last week.

Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug

We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving-yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.

ANYWAY: Eight players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 16:

• Bills WR Khalil Shakir (92)
• Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (89)
• Giants WR Malik Nabers (82)
• Eagles WR A.J. Brown (79)
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (76)
• Bears WR DJ Moore (75)
• Texans WR Robert Woods (72)
• Broncos WR Marvin Mims (72)

Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.

Of course, sometimes these unrealized air yards were far more the fault of the WR than the QB.

The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns

While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one—and I sadly witnessed the following four pass catchers drop what sure looked like reasonable chances to secure six points.

• Chiefs WR Justin Watson (32)
• Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (22—and it basically cost the Eagles the game)
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (15)
• Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (9)

Also note that Brian Thomas Jr. let a potential 80-yard TD bounce off his hands and fall incomplete, but an offensive holding penalty would have wiped out the big play anyway.

Sheeshy stuff indeed—almost as bad as when a missed TD was more so the QB's fault!

I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)

I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:

• Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer (56)
• Broncos WR Marvin Mims (52)
• Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (47, caught for 28 on underthrow)
• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (31)
• Vikings WR Jordan Addison (21)
• Texans TE Dalton Schultz (15)
• Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (12)
• Panthers WR Jalen Coker (8)
• Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (6)

Also note 49ers TE George Kittle was wide open for a short 3-yard TD, but Chop Robinson made a helluva play to deflect the pass at the line of scrimmage. A similar happening occurred to Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks—his deflected target happened from 40 yards out late during the Packers' blowout win on Monday night. Sheesh. 

This category was certainly a bit subjective—our next one not so much.

The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1 and no TD on the same drive

Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.

Here’s the full list of Week 16’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:

• Packers RB Josh Jacobs (x2, same drive)
• Bengals RB Chase Brown (x2, same drive)
• Browns RB D'Onta Foreman (x2, same drive, lost fumble)
• Bears RB D'Andre Swift
• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
• Packers WR Jayden Reed
• Broncos WR Marvin Mims
• Steelers WR Van Jefferson
• Raiders WR Tre Tucker
• Colts QB Anthony Richardson (even though it sure looked like he was in the end zone)

Pretty much the only thing more sheeshy than this is when the player actually does score a TD … only for the points to come right back off the scoreboard.

TD! Wait: Flag.

TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the rollercoaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.

In Week 16 there were two TDs nullified by penalty.

*Law and Order music*

These are their stories:

• Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Had an 11-yard TD run wiped out on a hold by TE Jordan Akins that, you know, kinda allowed the score to happen in the first place.
• Giants RB Tyrone Tracy: Took a sweep around right end for a 5-yard TD … that was  nullified on a hold by Wan'Dale Robinson. Once again, hard to overly argue with this one.

Additionally, Titans WR Calvin Ridley (36 yards), Rams RB Blake Corum (32), Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. (24), Giants WR Malik Nabers (23), Raiders WR Tre Tucker (19), and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (16) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.

Let's keep the sheeshy vibes going with more ref-aided, near-miss moments!

That's right: A.J. Brown could've had an even bigger day

Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.

That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.

Overall, four players gained at least 20 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 16:

• Eagles WR A.J. Brown (68 on 3 penalties)
• Falcons WR Darnell Mooney (30)
• Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (20)
• Panthers WR Jalen Coker (20)

Our last category of sheesh centers around determining which QBs perhaps deserve some slack for their on-paper turnovers …

Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?

From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.

Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 16 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.

Specifically: 

• Titans QB Mason Rudolph (x2): Threw a short pass to Tony Pollard that was officially ruled a drop by PFF before being intercepted, and also threw a pick as time expired with the Titans needing an 89-yard miracle TD to potentially send the game to overtime.
• Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Sure looked like he expected Rashod Bateman to keep running across the field instead of sitting. Typically the WR is supposed to sit vs. zone and keep running vs. man, and considering Bateman's trailing corner was sprinting like hell to catch up, I think it's reasonable to believe this one wasn't really on Lamar.
• Falcons QB Michael Penix: Made the mistake of thinking TE Kyle Pitts could catch an accurate pass, which led to a drop and interception for the Giants. That's OK, the rookie will learn.
• Bills QB Josh Allen: Threw up an arm punt on 3rd and 16 that wound up getting intercepted and brought back out of the end zone to set up the Patriots at the 1-yard line. Chess not checkers.
• Giants QB Drew Lock: Had a pass deflected at the line of scrimmage and taken back to the house by Matthew Judon. Hardly ideal, but also not exactly an egregious decision or brutally inaccurate pass, ya know?

I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.

Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 17.

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