Fantasy Football Fallout Of Keenan Allen's Return To The Chargers

It took until August, but the last free agency domino finally dropped on Tuesday when 33-year-old prodigal son—Keenan Allen—returned home to the Chargers on a one-year, $8.52M deal.

And the more I think about it, the more I believe it is a pretty big deal for fantasy. Allen had a 27% target share last year (9th in the NFL) and converted those looks into 70 receptions in a crowded offense. There really isn’t any reason to think he won’t do similarly again in 2025.

Impact of Keenan Allen’s Return to the Chargers

Outside of Ladd McConkey—he is clearly a baller who is going to shine in any situation—there are some pretty significant value changes we need to adjust for with Allen in the fold …

📈 Justin Herbert—This can’t be anything but good news for Herbert, who ranked 23rd in pass attempts per game last year. He was desperate for a reliable No. 2 option behind Ladd, and now he has it. Wheels up and bolt up, or whatever.

📈 Allen—Early drafters wanted nothing to do with Keenan as a Free Agent (current ADP: 187), but he is set to rise quickly. Along with J.K. Dobbins, who made a similar move earlier this offseason, Keenan is poised to be the biggest riser of best ball summer. Pack your bags now because he’s on a rocket ship to the Round 11-12 range.

CHECK YOUR ALLEN EXPOSURE IN OUR BEST BALL HUB

📉 Tre Harris—This has been a brutal week for Harris. Not only has he been outshined by KeAndre Lambert-Smith in training camp and the first preseason game, but he now has to fight Allen for targets and snaps. His current ADP (108) makes him an impossible click. He should drop closer to the Jack Bech range (ADP: 169).

📉 Quentin Johnston—Johnston was a fun story last year, but any hopes at earning significant targets went out the window with Allen in the mix. He’ll need to run extremely hot on deep TDs (had 8 last year, to be fair) to be a relevant fantasy asset. He’s more of an Alec Pierce-type bet (ADP: 178) at this point.

📉 Lambert-Smith—KLS was shaping up to be one of the most intriguing late-round rookie WR fliers, but Allen really sucks the air out of the room. I’d only mix him in sparingly as part of Herbert stacks.

WILL LADD MCCONKEY’S PROJECTIONS BE IMPACTED BY ALLEN?

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Matthew Freedman was up to the task of doing the 1-QB, 14-team mock draft from the seventh position on our mock draft simulator. Staying true to his rankings and pre-draft analysis, there was only one player with whom that Freedman could start this draft. See who that player is, and how Freedman drafted around this player—he got an A+—who is one of the big question marks going into 2025. ⬇️

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John Laghezza dove in on four sleepers at the position who should be available in the late rounds of drafts. What do they have in common? They’re all on the young side, all with plenty of upside. One even has the Thor Nystrom stamp of approval. Not to give too much away. So if you want to load up your roster early and wait at QB, you have options. ⬇️

JUST WHEN WE WERE OUT ON THIS PLAYER …

Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.

🃏 Yes, cooterdoodle has identified to Joker in Denver.

😍 If you love something, let it go … if it is meant to be, they’ll return.

😆 Sean Payton trolling with his RB depth chart? A tale as old as time.

🚀 The hype is building for this rookie WR. I’m buying.

🚑️ An update on Matthew Stafford’s health. Not great.

🪓 Great AMA on Guillotine Leagues^TM on Reddit.

🤔 Are you drafting or passing on Jordan Addison after his suspension?👀 Drafting for Guillotine Leagues or Redraft? There’s a difference.

📊 Ranking the leading EDGE and LB players for IDP. Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt, or Myles Garrett urge you to get defensive.