The Fantasy Football Playoffs are officially here, and Chris Allen is here to break down the best and worst fantasy football playoff matchups that managers should be mindful of:

Best Fantasy Football Playoff Matchups Entering Week 15

QB: Bo Nix, Broncos

Denver’s bye couldn’t have come at a better time. Against the Browns in Week 13, Bo Nix hit a career-high 11.5 air yards per attempt, resulting in his first multi-turnover game since Week 2. To go with his newly-found passing aggression, Nix’s rushing was nonexistent. In fact, he hasn’t generated any positive production on the ground since Week 11.

However, his upcoming schedule (IND, LAC, and CIN) should give fantasy managers the confidence needed to trust the rookie through the playoffs. The last two mobile QBs to face the Colts hit 19.4 and 18.2 FPTs (Josh Allen and Drake Maye). Kirk Cousins is the only QB to face the Chargers over their last six games and not throw for at least one TD. Half of them had multi-score outings. And Cincinnati is the second-best passing defense for QBs to face.

With his next two opponents ranking in the Top 12 in pressure rate, we should see more of Nix as a runner, and his passing weapons will keep him in the QB1 conversation during the playoffs.

RB: James Conner, Cardinals

James Conner crested 70.0% of the Cardinals’ backfield totes for the third time this season in Week 14. However, while we’ve watched Trey Benson mix throughout the year, Conner’s 61.0% carry rate ranks in the Top 20. Plus, with an 11.0% target share, he has multiple paths to wind up as a top-12 RB throughout the playoffs.

And each of his next three matchups speaks to his hybrid role with Arizona’s offense.

The Patriots (Week 15) gave up receiving TDs to RBs in back-to-back contests before their bye. Carolina (Week 16) has allowed the most 100-yard rushers (6). The Rams (Week 17) rank 14th in PPR PPG to RBs. Even as the rest of the passing game struggles, Conner’s targets and carries throughout the playoffs should make him a weekly staple in lineups heading to the championship.

WR: Ladd McConkey, Chargers

The Chargers have had a negative dropback over expectation rate in two games since their bye. Both were games without Ladd McConkey (Week 14), or he wasn’t a focal point of the passing game (Week 10).

Regardless, over the eight-game stretch, the rookie’s 7.3 UR Score aligns his usage with WR1s like Calvin Ridley and Jauan Jennings. In addition, he’ll see the Bucs’ and Patriots’ secondaries which have been top-10 units for opposing WRs all season. As McConkey works his way back from injury, he’ll be a key piece of your and the Chargers’ playoff hopes. 

TE: David Njoku, Browns

The Lord hasn’t delivered Jameis Winston from turnovers, but he’s at least provided Winston with a pass-catcher who can limit his penchant for throwing downfield into traffic. David Njoku’s 5.2 air yards per target are the sixth-lowest of any TE with a 50.0% route rate or higher this season. Since Winston took over as the starter, Njoku has the fifth-highest target share amongst his peers and the most end-zone looks in Cleveland. To go with his high-end workload, Chief Njoku faces the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bengals throughout the playoffs.

All three have allowed double-digit PPG to pass-catching TEs over the last six weeks (17.7, 10.7, and 11.0 – min. 50.0% route rate, 10.0% target share). The Browns have maintained a pass-friendly offense after the QB change (+3.0% dropback over expectation rate). If you’ve got Njoku, you should lock him into your TE spot once he’s healthy.

Worst Fantasy Football Playoff Matchups Entering Week 15

QB: Jordan Love, Packers

Admittedly, I don’t think anyone in the playoffs is relying on Jordan Love for a title. But I can see the case. The Packers play the Saints in Week 16. In addition, the last time Love saw DC Brian Flores’s defense, he torched them for four TDs. So, Love’s runout is appealing. But this isn’t the same offense from earlier in the season. Even in that Week 4 bout against the Vikings, Love had a 76.0% dropback rate and threw the ball 54 times. He’s had more than 30 attempts in a single game just three times since. The Packers have the second-lowest early-down passing rate with Love under center.

New Orleans and Seattle have been at or above the league average in rushing yards allowed per game over the last six weeks. The environments invite more attempts on the ground, which suits the Packers’ recent game-planning tendencies. As a result, Love is a boom-bust QB2 for the rest of the season.

RB: Najee Harris, Steelers

Week 14 was a reminder of Najee Harris’ fragility as a fantasy option. While he was running into a tough Cleveland front, a touchdown saved any gamer that started him. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren averaged more adjusted yards after contact, hit a couple of explosive gains, and played a part in the passing game (20.8% target share). And unfortunately, this isn’t a one-game occurrence. Harris has been at a 49.0% snap rate since Week 8 (six-game sample). Warren has out-earned him as a receiver (12.0% to 10.0%), and either Warren or Cordarrelle Patterson has been on the field in two-minute situations.

Harris might be the short-yardage option, but chances to bang in a TD become slim against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs over the next three weeks. None of them have allowed more than one rushing TD to an RB this season. Chuba Hubbard is the only rusher to accrue more than 100 yards against any of the three. At best, Harris grades out as a low-end RB2 with a split backfield and tough defensive environments to close out the fantasy season.

WR: DK Metcalf, Seahawks

On the one hand, even with the shoulder and knee ailments, DK Metcalf has led the Seahawks’ WRs in target share (26.0%). Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had target counts of 4 and 5 in his last two games after he stockpiled 11 in Metcalf’s first game back. However, he has had zero high-percentage looks since Week 11. Geno Smith only targets him on the perimeter.

Put another way, a less-than-healthy Metcalf only gets to perform as a receiver in situations requiring your full strength (i.e., contested catches). Concurrently, Seattle faces an uphill battle from a scheduling standpoint. Outside of Minnesota (second-best matchup for WRs), Metcalf will go up against two pass units with below-average ranks in PPR PPG allowed to outside WRs. While a deep shot turned score is typically in the cards for Metcalf, his floor is tough to trust for the playoffs.

TE: Sam LaPorta, Lions

The good news for Sam LaPorta is he’s still a factor in the Lions’ offense. After sitting out Week 11 with an injury, his target share has (slowly) been on the rise each of the last three weeks. And they’re not empty-calorie looks from Jared Goff. LaPorta shares the lead for the most end-zone attempts thrown his way over the same span. So, falling into the paint for a TE1 finish isn’t outside of his range of outcomes.

However, enemy running games have gashed all three of Detroit’s opponents (BUF, CHI, and SF) in the fantasy playoffs. All three rank as top-12 fronts to face based on season-long data. Given Detroit’s tendency to lean on their run game, LaPorta’s outlook is a bit more uncertain at a time when fantasy managers need consistent producers in every starting slot.

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