Shit happens in fantasy football land. Whether it's another manager deciding they need the exact player you were hoping would fall just one more spot, or irrational roster construction ruining your carefully crafted strategy: The only certainty during any given fantasy draft is the general uncertainty surrounding what the hell everyone is going to do.

While this inherent randomness can be tilting at times, it also makes fantasy football a lot of fun — particularly when we can use it to our advantage.

Enter: Tier-based drafting. This is essentially the practice of asking yourself "What can I get now that I can't get later" before every pick and acting accordingly. This practice certainly goes hand in hand with fantasy football rankings and general draft strategy; just realize leaning on tiers is really useful when attempting to discern whether or not you have the luxury of waiting on the position in question, or if the time to act is meow.

Today's goal: RB tiers with superlatives to highlight some of the biggest questions facing the involved signal-callers. The RBs are listed in order of my personal rankings inside the tiers and are followed by one specific superlative-themed write-up. Check out my team preview series for full thoughts on every team's RB room.

Access all our of experts customized player rankings and tiers as part of FantasyLife+!

As always: It's a great day to be great.

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Tier 1: Running back, THE running back, ya'll (3)

A really good RB in a really good offense with a really good fantasy-friendly role, is that something you might be interested in?

• 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: The NFL's all-time RB1 in PPR points per game has finished as a top-24 RB in all but two of his games with the 49ers.
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson: Fantasy Life Projections call for 305 combined carries and targets in 2024 — a scary thought for the 2023 NFL Draft's No. 8 overall pick behind PFF's reigning fourth-ranked offensive line in an offense suddenly expected to have above-average play under center.
• Jets RB Breece Hall: Finished as the overall PPR RB2 last season despite only seeing *one* single carry inside the five-yard line.

Most likely to break fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey

The position's highest-paid player on a per-year basis ($19 million!) doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon. No. 2 in both rushing yards over expected per carry (+1.32) and PFF receiving grade (87.1) last season, McCaffrey is as complete of an RB as they come, and the 49ers were accordingly more willing to give him a true workhorse role than almost any other offense in the league.

Nobody seems to dispute CMC's standing as the overall RB1 in fantasy land, but does he again deserve to go off draft boards as the legit 1.01?

I tend to think the answer is yes. The 28-year-old isn't quite at the point where we expect a dropoff in overall production, and his 1,297 career carries leave him below the scary 1,500 mark that historically is about when RBs start to lose efficiency.

McCaffrey's relative dominance at the position was unmatched in 2023:

Difference in total PPR fantasy points between No. 1 and No. 2 overall scorers in 2023:

• QB: 13.4
• RB: 122.6
• WR: 12.5
• TE: 6.0

Fantasy Life Projections again have McCaffrey garnering the position's most fantasy-friendly workload, which is a scary thought inside of a 49ers offense that once again looks poised to supply plenty of scoring opportunities. While it's fair to prefer CeeDee Lamb in certain WR-heavy leagues that feature full-PPR scoring, CMC continues to profile as anyone's idea of a solid 1.01, particularly in half-PPR and standard formats.

Tier 2: High-end RB1, but just one small problem (4)

Most of us don't need more than one hand to count the number of RBs we prefer ahead of these guys, although the presence of a dual-threat QB or fellow rock star in the backfield makes their projection just a bit harder to get excited about relative to the position's big-three options…

• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: Philly has 37.75 million reasons to feature their new shiny RB, who should enjoy the biggest runways of his career behind PFF's reigning top-ranked offensive line.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor: The rising fifth-year stud is projected to lead the NFL in rush attempts behind PFF's reigning third-ranked offensive line that just so happens to return all five starters — and don't be surprised if that Anthony Richardson guy helps widen those rushing lanes, even if dual-threat QBs don't typically bring out the best of their RBs in fantasy land.
• Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs: Averaged 16.7 PPR points per game alongside a healthy David Montgomery from Week 10 through the NFC Championship — that would have been good for RB7 status during the regular season, and the ceiling remains the roof should Montgomery miss any time.
• Dolphins RB De'Von Achane: Just broke the NFL record for yards per carry (7.8) in a single season with at least 100 rush attempts. While we should again expect Achane to split usage with Raheem Mostert fairly evenly, the rising second-year talent's "break the sport" sort of weekly upside is worthy of early-round investment.

Most likely to help push his QB's tush on the one-yard line: Saquon Barkley

It'd sure make a lot of sense if the Eagles' badass offensive line and Jalen Hurts' dual-threat prowess make life quite a bit easier when it comes to Barkley picking up yards efficiently on the ground. After all, only the Ravens (1.9) and Bills (1.8) have been as good as the Eagles (1.8) when it comes to rushing yards before contact per carry over the past three seasons.

Then again, this Eagles offensive environment hasn't been all that conducive to high-end fantasy success for RBs due to Hurts' tendencies to:

1. Scramble instead of checking down: Hurts has fed Eagles RBs just 246 total targets since taking over the starting job in 2021 — the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL.
2. Take control of the offense at the opponent's goal line: Eagles RBs rank 30th in carries from the one-yard line (10) over the past three seasons.

Overall, the Eagles have offered a bottom-five offensive environment in terms of expected RB PPR points per game over the past two seasons despite functioning as the NFL's fourth-ranked scoring offense during the same span. Opportunity rules all for RBs in fantasy land, and Philly simply hasn't gone out of their way to make life all that easy for their lead backs in Miles Sanders (RB37, RB21) and D'Andre Swift (RB24).

Intriguingly, Eagles RBs do in fact rank first in rush attempts from their opponent's 2-5 yard lines during this span; Barkley should get at least one opportunity to score when the Eagles get around the goal line — he just better take advantage of it.

Ultimately, Barkley does profile as the team's every-down workhorse back; it'd be surprising if he doesn't finish with around 300 combined carries and targets with a little help from the injury Gods. This makes him worthy of mid-tier RB1 treatment, even if it'd be a lot cooler if there was more upside on the goal line and in the passing game.

Tier 3: Target-brand discounted bell-cow RBs (4)

 And I love Target! That said, there's a reason why you're getting groceries from there and not Whole Foods. And there's a reason why these RBs are generally still available after Round 1 despite being expected to finish as top-12 producers at the position…

• Ravens RB Derrick Henry: Recorded a top-12 PPR finish in 59% of his games last season — a mark only bested by Christian McCaffrey (81%) and Kyren Williams. Now imagine that sort of performance inside the Ravens' reigning top-five offense in both points per game and PFF offensive line rank.
• Rams RB Kyren Williams: 2023's RB2 in PPR points per game is once again expected to be the clear-cut lead back inside of one of the NFL's most willing offenses to feature a true workhorse RB. Of course, third-round pick Blake Corum figures to eat into that workload at least a bit, and the pass-game upside appears limited after Williams finished last season dead last in yards per route run among 47 qualified RBs.
• Jaguars RB Travis Etienne: Worked as the overall RB2 in Weeks 1-8 thanks in large part to a league-high 178 touches but fell to the RB15 in Weeks 10-18 when his overall utilization dropped. Good news: Competition continues to be minimal; here's to hoping an improved Jaguars offensive line leads to efficiency numbers more on par with what we saw in 2022.
• Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco: Projected to rack up 259 touches in an improved Chiefs offense that yielded the seventh-most expected RB PPR points per game last season. Pacheco might run like the ground has taken everything he's ever worked for, but he's ranked 14th and ninth in Next-Gen Stats' rushing yards over expected per carry over the last two seasons while also catching an absurd 91.5% of his career 82 targets.

Most likely to tell Father Time to f*ck right off: Derrick Henry

There actually hasn't been much on-field evidence of Henry's ability falling off. Sure, his raw yards per carry have dipped, but a lot of that has to do with PFF's reigning 32nd-ranked offensive line struggling mightily in the trenches in recent years.

Titans rank in rush yards before contact per carry:

• 2023: 0.9 (30th)
• 2022: 1.0 (30th)
• 2021: 1.3 (18th)
• 2020: 1.5 (13th)

The Ravens’ rank during this span? First. This is both a testament to Baltimore:

1. Typically doing a good job ensuring they’ve invested ample resources into their offensive line.
2. Lamar Jackson’s value in the run game. His gravity on read-option plays has helped Baltimore RBs average a robust 4.8 yards per carry over the past five years — the highest mark in the league.

Henry’s yards after contact per carry have stayed between 3.3 and 3.9 yards in each of the past four seasons — good for top-10 marks at the position every year along the way. His max speed per season tells a similar story: Don’t be so quick to dub Henry washed just because of his raw yards per carry numbers.

However, life in this Baltimore offense hasn't exactly been overly fantasy-friendly for RBs over the years. Twenty-ninth and 20th in expected RB PPR points per game since 2022, the Ravens join the Eagles as two great examples of awesome real-life offenses that don't exactly offer pristine environments for their RBs due to dual-threat QBs: 1.) Eating into their offense's rushing pie, and 2.) Scrambling instead of checking down in the passing game.

Gus Edwards scored 13 TDs last season with the longest one going for … seven yards. Henry is a strong candidate to lead the league in rushing scores — Fantasy Life Projections accordingly have him tied with Christian McCaffrey in this very metric. Don't expect much of a PPR-friendly pass-game role alongside long-time pass-down specialist Justice Hill, but we also shouldn't be surprised if King Henry isn't quite done putting up big-time fantasy numbers on the ground.

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Tier 4: Walmart-brand discounted bell-cow RBs (5)

With all due respect to Walmart, of course. Either way, these RBs aren't tentatively expected to carry the same explosive upside as the position's other top-15 options despite having RB1-level workloads. But hey, maybe that's still not such a bad deal considering the lower price at hand…

• Texans RB Joe Mixon: The NFL's only RB to finish inside the position's top 12 in PPR points per game during each of the past three seasons. Lots of volume in a high-scoring offense tends to make up for meh yards per carry numbers rather quickly in fantasy land.
• Packers RB Josh Jacobs: The Packers have 48 million reasons to feed Jacobs the rock despite last year's brutal efficiency; there's volume-induced RB1 potential for one of league’s best rushers in forcing missed tackles and picking up yards after contact during the first four seasons of his career.
• Buccaneers RB Rachaad White: Piss poor rushing efficiency was more than made up for by borderline erotic receiving ability. Don't be surprised if more volume-driven RB1 production is on the way in 2024 should White manage to hold off rookie fourth-rounder Bucky Irving.
• Bills RB James Cook: The man dropped not one, not two, not three, but four likely TDs last season. Then again, Cook still finished as the RB19 in PPR points per game and profiles as the team's clear-cut RB1 with less receiving and goal-line competition than ever due to the departures of Stefon Diggs and Latavius Murray.
• Lions RB David Montgomery: Averaged a stellar 13.6 PPR points per game in Weeks 10-NFC Championship alongside a healthy Jahmyr Gibbs — good for RB20 status when applied to a full season. D-Mont deserves a boost in half-PPR and standard formats; there's weekly RB1 upside here should Gibbs miss any time.

Most likely to post RB1 production on meh efficiency thanks to sweet, sweet volume: Joe Mixon

Inefficiency and off-the-field issues have distracted from the fact that Mixon has been one of the league's more consistent fantasy producers since entering the league back in 2017:

Mixon PPR points per game by year:

• 2017: 10.1 (RB28)
• 2018: 17.4 (RB9)
• 2019: 14.1 (RB20)
• 2020: 16.6 (RB9)
• 2021: 18 (RB7)
• 2022: 17.1 (RB6)
• 2023: 15.7 (RB11)

While the original trade to Houston didn't seem like that big of a deal considering Mixon was only exchanged for a seventh-round pick, the ensuing contract extension certainly raised some eyebrows. Overall, Mixon's three-year, $27 million contract extension includes $13 million guaranteed — more than guys like Josh Jacobs ($12.5 million), Tony Pollard ($10.49 million) and Derrick Henry ($9 million) managed on their respective new deals.

28 in July, Mixon isn't quite at the age where we've historically seen a steep decline from RBs in fantasy land, and it sure seems like the Texans plan on feeding him the rock after letting Devin Singletary walk in free agency. Friendly reminder that Singletary handled the position's fourth-most touches and ranked eighth in expected PPR points after receiving the starting job in Week 9 last season.

While Mixon might profile as the sort of "dead zone" RB that we are only taking because of volume in past years, his current ADP places him in the Round 3-5 conversation depending on the site — not a bad bet to make considering the sky-high scoring upside of this Texans offense.

Tier 5: I just don't see it, man (3)

The last thing we want to do in fantasy land is spend high-end draft capital on an RB strictly for volume purposes while ignoring age, efficiency and/or environment red flags. There's always a chance for an exception or two, but in general these are the sorts of archetypes better off avoiding when we can help it…

• Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker: Was out-performed by Zach Charbonnet on a per-rush basis in almost every notable advanced metric and now faces life in a new offense that isn't exactly expected to light up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. Walker needs to be one of the best pure rushers to justify his current Round 4 cost.
• Saints RB Alvin Kamara: Rode extreme pass-game usage to an RB3 finish on a per-game basis last season. Still, that was with third-rounder KenDre Miller spending more weeks than not on the sideline, and professional vulture Taysom Hill remains a nuisance around the goal line.
• Vikings RB Aaron Jones: Kudos to the longtime Packer for racking up 100-plus rushing yards in each of his final five games of last season, although the rising eighth-year veteran turns 30 in December and has a worrisome history of lower-body injuries. Don't count on this Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy-led attack producing more fantasy-friendly opportunities than what Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love managed over the years.

Most likely to ball out … as long as he's healthy: Aaron Jones

While Father Time is coming for Jones (30 next December), the longtime stud looked better than ever down the stretch of last season upon returning from a hamstring injury:

• Week 16: 21 carries-127 rush yards-0 TD
• Week 17: 20-120-0
• Week 18: 22-111-0
• Wild Card: 21-118-3
• Divisional Round: 18-108-0

Jones was his usual efficient self on the ground all season long, ranking eighth in EPA per rush and yards per carry in 2023 (including playoffs). Going from the PFF’s 11th-ranked offensive line to their 12th should hopefully be a fairly smooth transition.

The main two problems:

1. Scoring upside. The Green Bay offense was playing as well as any group in the league down the stretch of last season … and Sam Darnold is the current betting favorite to be under center come Week 1 for the Vikings.
2. Pass-game usage. Kevin O’Connell has taken a page out of his old boss Sean McVay’s book and largely refrained from featuring his RBs in the passing game: The Vikings join the Ravens and Rams as the only three teams averaging fewer than 75 total targets to their RBs over the past two seasons.

Competition in the form of Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu shouldn’t be much of a factor considering both were multiple injuries away from making a factor in 2023. Perhaps this is Jones’ path to continued high-end success: A bigger down-to-down role than he’s ever had would certainly help make up for the likely loss of overall TD and target upside.

Jones is a solid zero/hero-RB pick in the right build, even if I prefer typically guys like Rhamondre Stevenson, David Montgomery and James Conner at cost. Even if Father Time is probably going to be annoying in terms of efficiency and health, it's hard to be too far out on an explosive, pass-catching RB expected to push for 250 combined carries and targets.

Tier 6: Yes, we're saying there's a chance (8)

Whether it's age, an underwhelming offense, or simple disbelief that the RB is in fact #good: These backs are discounted RB2 options available in the middle rounds of drafts despite seemingly being set up well enough to at least supply some top-20 goodness in fantasy land…

• Cardinals RB James Conner: Posted top-five numbers in basically every advanced rushing metric we care (per our Advanced RB Stats) about last season on his way to (again) smashing his mundane preseason ADP — and he looked good doing it. It sure doesn't sound like the Cardinals plan on taking too much off the plate of the 29-year-old veteran.
• Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson: The recently #paid bell-cow RB is just one season removed from an RB10 finish in PPR points per game. While the offensive environment isn't ideal, it'd be surprising to NOT see Stevenson rack up 15-20 combined carries and targets on a weekly basis.
• Steelers RB Jaylen Warren: Posted elite efficiency numbers as the offense's second banana in 2023 and should benefit from having Russell Wilson under center considering the veteran QB fed Broncos RBs a league-high 255 targets over the past two seasons.
• Steelers RB Najee Harris: Has parlayed touch counts of 381, 313 and 284 into 1,200-plus total yards and at least eight TDs in every season as a pro.
• Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks: Might not be fully unleashed until a month or two into the season while recovering from a torn ACL, but the rookie should offer plenty of second-half fireworks if he comes close to living up to some of his comps in the Fantasy Life Rookie RB Super Model.
• Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert: The reigning RB4 in PPR points per game will likely again split snaps with De'Von Achane inside of a Dolphins offense that produced more expected RB PPR points per game than any other offense in 2023. Father Time is undefeated, but Mostert is fairly young in terms of career touches.
• Bengals RB Zack Moss: Profiles as the lead early-down and short-yardage back inside of a Bengals offense that figures to be among the league's most-prolific units with a healthy No. 9 under center. Moss finished as Next Gen Stats' RB5 in rushing yards over expected per carry last season. 
• Bears RB D'Andre Swift: Fully expected to lead this backfield after fetching a three-year, $24 million deal in free agency. It wouldn't be surprising to see the 25-year-old talent get more fantasy-friendly opportunities in the pass game and around the goal line inside this new offense.

Most likely to annoy fantasy managers when everyone is healthy: Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris

Harris arguably put forward the best season of his career in terms of rushing efficiency in 2023, yet still paled in comparison to Warren in virtually any metric:

• PFF rush grade: Warren (84.4), Harris (77.2)
• Yards per carry: Warren (5.2), Harris (4)
• Yards after contact per carry: Warren (3.7), Harris (3)
• Missed tackled forced per carry: Warren (0.36), Harris (0.2)
• Explosive run rate: Warren (16.6%), Harris (9.4%)
• Stuff rate: Warren (17%), Harris (19%)

To be fair: Warren ranks near the top of the leaderboard period in most of these stats, and Harris did have to deal with eight-plus defenders in the box on a far higher percentage of his carries (37.5% vs. 23.6%).

That said, Warren's emergence as a bonafide stud was undoubtedly part of the reason why the Steelers felt comfortable declining Harris' fifth-year option this offseason.

Clearly, Warren is going to be a big part of this offense, but that hasn't stopped Pittsburgh from playing him behind Harris in each of the past two seasons. Fantasy footballers are also all too familiar with Arthur Smith's RB usage practices. While we've seen past examples of featured workhorses in both systems, our most recent sample sure seems to indicate another 1.A/1.B approach is on the horizon.

2023 touches

• Bijan Robinson (272), Tyler Allgeier (204)
• Najee Harris (284), Jaylen Warren (210)

Good news: Both offenses finished inside the league's top-six most fantasy-friendly backfields in terms of expected PPR points per game. Adding Wilson's Broncos to the equation gives us another top-four finisher. There should be plenty of overall usage to go around here, although introducing Justin Fields into the equation could potentially complicate things due to the negative fantasy impact mobile QBs typically have on their team's RBs.

The backfield's incumbent roles and pecking order should once again crown Harris as the starter and leading rusher, but Warren profiles as the preferred pass-game option. This led to fairly consistent RB3 production from both Warren (RB29) and Harris (RB30) last season. Either would immediately be in the RB1 conversation should the other miss time with an injury. 

Tier 7: Yes, we're kinda sorta saying there's a chance (9)

It's a bit tougher to wrap your mind around the path to upside for these backs relative to tier six, but then again: It's possible. Still, the red flags shine a bit brighter here; there are reasons why these RBs are generally going off the board in the RB3 stage of fantasy drafts…

• Raiders RB Zamir White: Ripped off PPR RB12, RB17, RB16 and RB21 finishes on touch counts of 20, 22, 25 and 26 during the final four weeks of last season. Minimal competition exists inside this backfield, but White isn't exactly expected to flirt with many fantasy-friendly targets or goal-line opportunities.
• Titans RB Tony Pollard: The Titans have 21.75 million reasons to feature Pollard as their featured RB, although OC Nick Holz previously said he and Tyjae Spears are "interchangeable" and "1a/1b". Pollard should still be able to return fantasy value with a lesser workload if his efficiency numbers get back to a pre-2023 level.
• Giants RB Devin Singletary: Has posted better rushing efficiency numbers than Saquon Barkley and now looks the part of the lead back inside this shallow backfield. Of course, the scoring upside here is low, and the presence of dual-threat QB Daniel Jones won't do "Motor" any favors on check-down targets or around the goal line.
• Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott: Hasn't been good for quite some time, but still profiles as at least the lead goal-line option inside the league's reigning No. 1 scoring offense.
• Commanders RB Brian Robinson: Expected to (again) work as the Commanders' lead early-down and goal line back. Robinson also boasts some underrated receiving ability (36-368-4 in 2023), but it's tough to expect too many fireworks in a likely split backfield inside the NFL's reigning 25th-ranked scoring offense.
• Commanders RB Austin Ekeler: Just one season removed from an overall RB1 finish, we've all seen the long run against the Packers when Ekeler reached just 13 miles per hour, but he looked plenty spry before the injury, notably hitting 19.6 miles per hour on this screen.
• Titans RB Tyjae Spears: One of just three RBs to post PFF grades north of 70 in rushing, receiving and pass blocking last season, Spears is a true all-around talent who makes good things happen with the football in his hands. If only Pollard wasn't around to at a minimum split touches.
• Chargers RB Gus Edwards: The money to Gus Bus (2-years, $6.5M, $3.375M guaranteed) reflects the reality that he's fully expected to start ahead of J.K. Dobbins (1-year, $1.61M, $50,000 guaranteed) and sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal. Presented banged up, it looks like Gus should be fine by training camp.
• Broncos RB Javonte Williams: Rumored to be potentially fighting for a roster spot inside of an offense that ranked fourth in expected RB PPR points per game last season. Williams should be able to win out thanks to his status as the group's most complete back IF his efficiency can get back to something close to pre-knee injury levels.

Most likely to rack up fantasy points despite not being overly good at football: Ezekiel Elliott

While Zeke didn’t seem COMPLETELY washed last season (Fun fact: Elliott posted a faster top speed than Tony Pollard!), the former No. 4 overall pick has certainly been on a downward trend as of late:

• 2018: +0.45 rushing yards over expected per carry (No. 17 among qualified RBs)
• 2019: +0.4 (No. 12)
• 2020: +0.03 (No. 32)
• 2021: -0.19 (No. 31)
• 2022: -0.34 (No. 43)
• 2023: -0.39 (No. 43)

Don’t expect a workhorse role for the soon-to-be 29-year-old veteran, but Elliott does profile as the most likely goal-line option inside the NFL’s reigning No. 1 ranked scoring offense. There’s potential for TD-dependent RB3 usage here, particularly if the Cowboys refrain from making any relevant trades at the position between now and Week 1.

Only the Lions (70), Colts (59) and Eagles (57) have given their RBs more carries inside the five-yard line than the Cowboys (55) over the past three seasons. Reminder: Zeke averaged just 3.8 yards per carry during his last season in Dallas while contributing essentially nothing to the passing game … and still finished as the RB22 in PPR points per game on the back of 12 TDs — nine of which came from inside the five-yard line.

And guess what? Zeke was even worse last year, but did you know:

• Elliott's rushing efficiency metrics were better than Josh Jacobs across the board.
• Saquon Barkley and Zeke averaged the same amount of missed tackles forced per carry.
• Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon averaged the same amount of yards after contact per carry as Elliott.

Nobody is (or at least should be) arguing that Zeke is still even a "good" NFL RB, but the same numbers used to paint that picture are also true for fellow veterans going well above him in fantasy drafts … mostly because of fantasy managers (understandably) simply being willing to follow that sweet, sweet volume.

Tier 8: Babe, get the handcuffs out (18)

Handcuff running backs aren't created equal in fantasy football land. Sure, the allure of newfound upside from someone who previously was simply a backup is always enticing, but differing usage, scoring environment and personal ability are just a few factors that make it tricky to project second-string RBs thrust into starting roles.

For more on these backups, check out my award-winning (not really) Handcuff Tiers article…

• Cardinals RB Trey Benson: Third-round draft capital makes the explosive high-end athlete a good bet to assume a near-every-down role should James Conner miss any time (10 missed games since 2021).
• Bengals RB Chase Brown: Collegiate workload and fine enough size (5-foot-10, 209 pounds) seemingly doesn't pigeonhole Brown as a glorified scat back, but his chances of ever getting a true three-down role are contingent on more trust as a pass blocker (eight total pass-blocking snaps in 2023).
• Rams RB Blake Corum: Third-round draft capital seemingly cements Corum as the next man up behind Kyren Williams in an expected top-10 scoring offense that was more willing to feature a true workhorse RB than most last season.
• Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet: While it's far from guaranteed the team's new coaching staff cares about Charbonnet's solid advanced numbers (which you can also find in our suite of advanced positional tools), he proved capable of working across all three downs on his way to handling 21, 18 and 20 touches during his three games with Kenneth Walker sidelined.
• Browns RB Nick Chubb: Not a handcuff but not every tier can be perfect from top to bottom, OK!? Anyways, Chubb’s multi-ligament injury required two separate surgeries and places him in uncharted territory; expect reduced efficiency even if the longtime stud does his best Adrian Peterson impression and manages to get back onto the field sooner rather than later.
• Browns RB Jerome Ford: The rising third-year talent proved to be a walking big play on his way to racking up 1,132 total yards and nine TDs in 2023; there's high-end handcuff upside here in addition to 1.B treatment with plenty of pass-down usage even once Chubb is back in action.
• Vikings RB Ty Chandler: Racked up 27, eight, 13 and 15 combined carries and targets in his four starts to end 2023. Ultimately, what Chandler lacks in potential three-down ability and offensive upside he makes up for in lack of backfield depth — and we also shouldn't completely rule out some level of standalone value here.
• Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd: The return of A.J. Dillon (200-plus touches in three straight seasons) could complicate the potential of Lloyd seeing a true three-down role if Josh Jacobs was forced out of action, even if the explosive pass-catching RB would still be the preferred option should Jacobs miss time.
• Bills RB Ray Davis: Was one of college football's more productive receiving backs over the past two seasons and also offers the sort of stocky build (5-foot-8, 211 pounds) that could lead to short-yardage usage after the Bills declined to bring back Latavius Murray this offseason.
• Patriots RB Antonio Gibson: The 26-year-old talent didn't rack up over 1,000 total yards with double-digit TDs in back-to-back seasons to start his career by accident, and there's enough receiving ability here to believe some serious full-PPR goodness would be on the table should Stevenson hit the sideline
• Saints RB KenDre Miller: There's enough size (6-foot, 220 pounds) and theoretical pass-down ability here to believe Miller could seize control of this backfield should Alvin Kamara be forced out of action so long as Pokemon fanatic Jamaal Williams stays out of the way (not guaranteed).
• Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard: The former fourth-round pick deserves credit for proving capable of earning a true every-down role in 2023 — something that could again be on the table should rookie Jonathon Brooks miss time either to start the season or beyond.
• Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier: The former fifth-round pick worked as the overall PPR RB5 during the final four weeks of 2022 when featured as the lead back. Don't count on Allgeier stealing nearly as many touches away from Bijan Robinson as he did last season, but his sky-high handcuff upside hasn't gone anywhere.
• Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin: While Jaleel deserves credit for posting top-five numbers in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run, he was trusted to pass block on just five total snaps last year and doesn't ever profile as the lead early-down option here.
• Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle: It's unlikely Rico ever seizes full control of the backfield; just realize double-digit combined carries and targets per game inside a likely top-10 scoring offense could go a long way in fantasy land.
• Jets RB Braelon Allen: Already being called the frontrunner for the Jets RB2 job behind Breece Hall, and the rookie's status as a massive human being (6-foot-1, 235 pounds) adds credence to the idea that he might be able to carve out some level of standalone value as a short-yardage complement.
• 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell was the RB15 in PPR points per game as the team's starter in 2021 and even ripped off PPR RB19 and RB14 finishes in his two games with extended action in 2023.
• Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: CEH and (free agent) Jerick McKinnon racked up 57.8 PPR points in Weeks 14-15 last season — just 0.2 fewer fantasy points than what CMC averaged during that stretch. That sort of weird shit can happen for RBs inside one of the league's most fantasy-friendly offenses led by Mr. Patrick Mahomes.

Most likely to benefit from the 1.01 missing any action: Elijah Mitchell

What would happen in fantasy land if Christian McCaffrey were to miss time? Obviously, nobody wants that to happen, but just for insurance, er, handcuff purposes, what other 49ers RB would benefit?

Well, The Athletic’s David Lombardi believes the answer is pretty clear:

"Elijah Mitchell is clear #2. All-around back, key is health. If training camp yields a productive RB logjam, it is fair to point out 49ers have previously traded RBs (Breida, Jeff Wilson Jr.) when they've had an excess of depth.”

It’s always possible rookie fourth-rounder Isaac Guerendo makes some noise in camp and moves up the depth chart, but as former third-round picks Trey Sermon (Colts) and Tyrion Davis-Price (Eagles) can attest: Getting John Lynch to draft you hardly guarantees an actual on-field role ever emerging (the early word on Guerendo also doesn’t sound overly promising).

Yes, Jordan Mason deserves credit for besting Mitchell in yards per carry (5.2 vs. 3.7) last season. Also, yes, Head Coach Kyle Shanahan gave the following endorsement last November:

“We look at more than stats. Mitchell’s our number two back. He’s done some pretty good things here and JP’s our three, he’s been our two at times. But it’s how most cases are in the NFL.”

Reminder: Mitchell was the RB15 in PPR points per game as the team's starter in 2021 and even ripped off PPR RB19 and RB14 finishes in his two games with extended action in 2023. Mitchell earned 32 of the backfield's 41 total touches during the second half of Week 17 and Week 18 while CMC was dealing with a calf injury. 

Mitchell probably isn’t the most valuable handcuff in fantasy; the 49ers have generally refrained from asking much of him as a receiver over the years. That said: We have essentially 16 games worth of evidence that he’s good enough to offer upside RB2 production anytime CMC isn’t around to dominate the action.

Tier 9: Path to success if you squint hard enough (10)

We've now reached the point where standalone value is little more than a pipe dream, and even handcuff upside involves jumping through some hoops. Still, maybe, JUST maybe, these RBs still have a chance to find their way to success in 2024…

• Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright: Miami traded a 2025 third-rounder in order to draft Wright, but he's probably two injuries away from having a fantasy-relevant role.
• Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins: The history of RBs coming off an Achilles tear is absolutely brutal, and the early word from the Chargers beat is that Gus Edwards is the clear lead back.
• Browns RB D'Onta Foreman: Likely irrelevant once Nick Chubb is healthy and even then doesn't profile as more than a one-dimension early-down grinder otherwise.
• Chargers RB Kimani Vidal: He's fast (4.46 40-yard dash) with theoretical three-down size (5-foot-8. 213 pounds) and even managed to post a 92-700-1 receiving line in four years at Troy … but is also a sixth-round pick, which historically isn't good.
• Giants RB Tyrone Tracy: Fell to pick No. 166 for a reason, even if he did indeed pull off some cool shit on his 146 collegiate carries. The Giants' soft depth chart helps, but then again this isn't exactly the world's most fantasy-friendly offense.
• Broncos RB Audric Estime: A threat to the offense's short-yardage/goal-line roles. This is most concerning to Javonte Williams, who ranks dead last in TD rate (18%) inside the five-yard line over the past three seasons.
• Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving: Size concerns (5-foot-9, 192 pounds) and day three draft capital probably makes Irving more of a threat to Chase Edmonds' scat back-role as opposed to someone ready to challenge Rachaad White for starting duties.
• Eagles RB Will Shipley: Would likely split time with Gainwell should Barkley be forced out of action. Failure for either to seize full control of the RB2 job would leave them as fairly low-upside handcuff options, although Shipley's demonstrated pass-catching ability in college earns him the slight nod.
• Bears RB Khalil Herbert: Regularly found himself near the top of the NFL's leaderboard in rushing yards over expected per carry during his short career. Still, Roschon Johnson would likely split things to an extent should D'Andre Swift miss time.
• Bears RB Roschon Johnson: Two injuries away (or a Herbert trade) from having a chance to make any noise in 2024.

Most likely to climb up the depth chart: Kimani Vidal

Head coach Jim Harbaugh is fully expected to run the piss out of the football, meaning the former Ravens RBs *should* be flirting with double-digit touch workloads from Week 1 on this season. It's fair to be more enthused with Gus Edwards than J.K. Dobbins considering the history of RBs coming off an Achilles tear, but then again the latter claims to be back to full health and seemingly has a chance to earn the starting job.

Renowned NFL insider Daniel Jeremiah went as far as to state, "If you're in a fantasy draft, draft J.K. Dobbins." It certainly won't cost you much! Still, the contracts between Gus Bus and Dobbins are quite different. One looks poised to see a fairly prominent role throughout the season, and the other looks a bit more like a lottery ticket:

• Edwards: 2-years, $6.5 million, $3.375 million guaranteed
• Dobbins: 1-year, $1.61 million, $50,000 guaranteed

While Edwards' production in Baltimore was heavily aided by boatloads of fantasy-friendly goal-line volume, money talks, and the Chargers have invested more into him than any other RB on their roster. He's rather easily projected to lead this backfield. Keep an eye on the undisclosed injury here, but it looks like Gus should be fine by training camp.

And then there's sixth-round rookie RB Kimani Vidal. He's fast (4.46 40-yard dash) with theoretical three-down size (5-foot-8, 213 pounds) and even managed to post a 92-700-1 receiving line in four years at Troy.

But c'mon people. The man fell all the way to Round 6 (pick 181) for a reason. The Chargers made six selections before addressing their backfield. Of course, Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz for saying nice things about the guy he drafted (that never happens! kidding), and it's tough to dispute just how shallow this overall depth chart is at the moment.

Tier 10: Theoretically could be the next man up (10)

Are any of these RBs actually good at football? Not really. Does that always matter in fantasy football land? Not really. Thus, we have the lowest of the low, who almost certainly won't heavily factor into the 2024 fantasy landscape, but you could imagine what it'd be like if they did…

• Texans RB Dameon Pierce: Started the first seven games of last season and looks like the direct backup to Joe Mixon, even if Pierce was the league's least-efficient RB in raw yards per carry (2.9) in 2023.
• Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby: Brutal efficiency as a rusher and his receiving work in particular was a f*cking horror movie. Still, positive coach speak keeps on coming for the expected No. 2 Jaguars RB.
• Raiders RB Alexander Mattison: Someone to occasionally take in literally the final round of drafts as a prospective handcuff and/or 1.B to Zamir White, but he's one of those picks to probably keep to yourself because, yeah, gross.
• Colts RB Trey Sermon: Technically the No. 2 RB behind Jonathan Taylor at the moment, but the offense's willingness to lean on Tyler Goodson as the preferred pass-down back down the stretch of 2023 reflects the reality that the former third-round pick isn't exactly looking at a three-down role should this depth chart remain unchanged.
• Saints RB Jamaal Williams: The Saints gave Jamaal Williams a three-year, $12 million contract for some reason last offseason, and he accordingly worked well ahead of KenDre Miller pretty much anytime the two happened to both be healthy in 2023.
• Panthers RB Miles Sanders: Perhaps the Panthers' 25.4 million dollar man gets the RB2 job over Chuba Hubbard; that's the best-case scenario behind expected bell-cow RB Jonathon Brooks.
• Jaguars RB D'Ernest Johnson: Maybe works as the RB2 behind Travis Etienne if Tank Bigsby remains horrendous. Then again, Johnson averaged just 2.6 yards per carry himself last season.
• Broncos RB Samaje Perine: Led all RBs in yards per route run while also providing solid pass-blocking chops last season, yet remains a cut candidate who has never carved out a major role in eight career seasons.
• Cowboys RB Deuce Vaughn: The 5-foot-5, 179-pound second-year back will probably never get a real chance at a full-time role. Or maybe he'll be the Cowboys' starting slot receiver. Sigh.
• Steelers RB Cordarrelle Patterson: As longtime President of the Cordarrelle Patterson fan club, no slander will be tolerated for the NFL's GOAT kick returner (KICK, not punt, chill out Bears fans). While new Steelers OC Arthur Smith could again find a way to keep the 33-year-old veteran more involved than fantasy managers would hope, C-Patt should at least provide some fireworks under the NFL's new kick return rules.