By mid-week, every NFL team will be in training camp. Get ready for a flood of information–some actionable, some not so much–to take over your social media timelines. While we love to hear that players are in great shape and making one-handed catches against air, there are multiple more meaningful storylines that we need to pay close attention to.

Of course, narrowing down a list like this to seven is never easy, so I have added some quick-hit notes at the bottom on other meaningful situations to monitor. We will follow all of this up with the top Utilization Report takeaways from each week of preseason action. Brick by brick, we will determine which players to move up, down, or leave at their current ranks.

Last year, following this process, preseason moved the needle for names like Bucky Irving, J.K. Dobbins, Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown, Jordan Mason, Tank Bigsby, Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams, and Sam Darnold.

Note: Consensus average draft position (ADP) is an average across ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, RTSports, and Underdog.

Note No. 2: Many of the players we will discuss below involve rookies. It is essential to remember that rookie breakouts don't always begin quickly, so it isn't a death knell if they start the season lower on the depth chart. However, earning immediate playing time is a plus, and we need to understand this to construct our early-season rosters appropriately (i.e., do we take a rookie who might not play early but ensure we have a veteran to fill in?).

1. How much will Travis Hunter play on offense?

Hunter earned an 88 rating in the Rookie Super Model, which is the 14th best mark since 2018. However, his rating would be even higher if we knew a role as a full-time WR was on the table.

Receivers to grade out in his range of the model have notched a top-36 campaign by Year 3 83% of the time.

• Top-six finishes: 8%
• Top-12 finishes: 25%
• Top-24 finishes: 67%

Again, Hunter's evaluation is complicated because we don't know how much of his draft capital is attributed to him being a unicorn two-way player. If he went, No. 3 purely as a WR, the hit rates jump to Ja'Marr Chase and Malik Nabers' levels.

In minicamp, Hunter focused primarily on offense, and Liam Coen and James Gladstone seem bullish on him being able to push for a significant role, even if he is also playing defense. Trying to nail down a projected route participation won't be easy, because we could see the Jaguars prioritize playing him in the small sample of drives they play starters, but it might not translate 1:1 when we get to complete games.

I currently have Hunter at a 78% route participation, which gives him room to notch a top-36 finish, which aligns with his consensus ADP of WR29 in Round 6. However, if that number approaches 85 to 90%, we can't rule out a high-end WR2 or even a WR1 campaign in an offense that should be highly concentrated around Hunter and Brian Thomas.

2. Deciphering the Cowboys and Jaguars backfields.

Javonte Williams and Travis Etienne are the assumed starters in these backfields, but there is a ton of uncertainty in the market, as evidenced by consensus ADP.

Cowboys

• Williams (RB35, Round 10)
• Jaydon Blue (RB46, Round 12)
• Miles Sanders (RB76, Round 18)

Jaguars

• Etienne (RB33, Round 9)
• Bhayshul Tuten (RB44, Round 12)
• Tank Bigsby (RB45, Round 12)

To this point, Sanders, Tuten, and Blue are three of my most-drafted backs due to their uncertainty and lower price tags—as you can see in our Best Ball HQ player exposure tool:

However, my views and exposures could drastically change based on how often each of these players is running with the ones and who gets the most playing time with the starters throughout the preseason.

The Cowboys project for the 10th-most TDs and the seventh-most yards in my projection model, so should this backfield consolidate to one or two backs, there is upside.

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams signed a one-year $3M contract, but hasn't been himself since a 2022 ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner injury. Before the injury, Williams was one of the most elusive and explosive backs in the league.

Williams pre-injury:

• Yards after contact: 3.4 and 3.5 (RB1-worthy)
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.31 and 0.34 (RB1-worthy)
• 10-plus yard attempts: 12%, 15% (RB1-worthy)

Post-injury:

• Yards after contact: 2.7 and 2.4 (backup-worthy)
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.15 and 0.16 (backup-worthy)
• 10-plus yard attempts: 10%, 9% (RB2/3-worthy)

Jaydon Blue

Blue had to battle Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks for opportunities at Texas in his first two seasons. Getting more work in his final year would make us feel better, but he has passing-down chops and long speed, leaving the door open for a larger-than-expected impact on the offense. It will be very interesting to see if Blue gets much early-down or passing-down work with the starters. If he does, he is the one from this group most likely to surge in price.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders never lived up to his Round 2 NFL Draft capital or the free-agent contract he signed with the Panthers, but at age 28, he could still be the answer if Williams' lack of explosiveness or Blue's lack of experience hold them back.

Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby

The Jaguars introduced Liam Coen as their new head coach this offseason and added Travis Hunter, joining Brian Thomas, to spark renewed interest in the offense. Jacksonville comes in with the 18th-highest TD total and 16th-most yards.

Etienne has a three-down skillset and is a former Round 1 NFL Draft pick, but battled injuries and fell out of favor down the stretch, averaging a 53% snap share over the final six games. Bigsby, slightly edged out Etienne over that period with 47% of the rushing attempts, but was a near-zero in the passing game with only a 4% target share.

Bhayshul Tuten

Tuten provides new GM James Gladstone and Coen to reintroduce explosiveness to the offense—something Coen opted for with Bucky Irving in Tampa Bay. Tuten boasts the No. 1 speed score in the 2025 rookie RB class and the third-best explosive rush rate, with 18% of his totes traveling 10-plus yards in college. He was the No. 6 RB in the class in the Rookie Super Model.

If Tuten gets starting reps or shows he is the clear-cut No. 2 and shines in the preseason, he will skyrocket up draft boards.

3. Will Omarion Hampton lock down the RB1 role ASAP?

Hampton is the 10th-best RB in the history of the Rookie Super Model with a rating of 79.

He offers the size-speed combination that NFL teams love, and checks scores of 75 or higher in every aspect of the model (the scale ranges from 50 to 100). To put his rating into context, 73% of his comps in the model achieved a top-12 finish by Year 3, and 27% reached top-six status.

From a probability standpoint, there isn't much bust potential with Hampton, and it is more a matter of when he will break out rather than if he will break out. With Najee Harris opening camp on the NFI list, the Hampton will get an opportunity to impress immediately.

Hampton's ADP is already climbing on the Harris news, but if he gets starter reps immediately, even with Harris back in the fold, he could climb into Round 3 of fantasy drafts by summer's end.

4. Can a worthwhile receiving threat emerge in Buffalo?

Come on, y'all. We need this. It feels criminal to feel so underwhelmed by a receiving corps attached to Josh Allen–one of the best QBs in the NFL. Still, it isn't like the Bills haven't tried to invest in the position.

Buffalo rewarded Khalil Shakir with a four-year $56M contract this offseason after spending a Round 1 pick on Dalton Kincaid in 2023 and a Round 2 selection on Keon Coleman in 2024.

When I polled X about which bets folks are putting on this receiving corps, no clear leader emerged. Everyone is skeptical, and it is understandable.

Consensus ADPs:

• Shakir (WR40, Round 8)
• Coleman (WR51, Round 10)
• Kincaid (TE14, Round 11)
• Josh Palmer (WR72, Round 15)
• Elijah Moore (undrafted)

Shakir is a low-key breakout candidate that I missed in my recent breakout series. The Year 4 wideout checks multiple boxes with a WR3 finish on his resume and has improved every year.

• Targets per route run (TPRR): 13%, 14%, 25% (WR1-worthy)
• Targets: 4%, 9%, 23% (WR2-worthy)
• Yards per route run (YPRR): 1.14, 1.84, 2.15 (WR1/2-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 65.1, 75.7, 77.5 (WR2-worthy)

So what's the holdup? Last year, he had his highest route participation at 75%, which is in WR4 territory, and the Bills have evolved into a run-balanced offense under Joe Brady. That route participation number isn't that far below WR1 territory of 85%. If Shakir can earn more reps in two-WR sets, the underlying talent is there to unlock more, which is the thing to monitor in the preseason.

Kincaid would be next on my list despite a very disappointing start to his career. Similar to Shakir, he needs more playing time, but offers some solid underlying traits that improved in Year 2.

• Targets per route run: 20%, 26% (WR1-worthy)
• Targets: 18%, 19%  (WR2-worthy)
• Yards per route run: 1.46, 1.62 (WR1/2-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 68.7, 76.0 (WR2-worthy)

Unfortunately, he averaged a 69% route share in games where Dawson Knox was healthy. Still, he averaged 13.7 points in contests with an 80%+ route participation rate. Like Shakir, we will be monitoring for more playing time with Kincaid this preseason with the starters.

With the rest of this group, we will be monitoring the same things—is anyone looking like a full-time player? For a full breakdown on Coleman's breakout potential, I have you covered here.

5. Will J.K. Dobbins rain on RJ Harvey's parade?

Sean Payton and the Broncos took Harvey a round ahead of where mocks had him going in the NFL Draft with a Round 2 pick (60). Harvey offers a unique blend of elusiveness and explosiveness, touting a 31% missed tackles forced rate (73rd percentile since 2017). He creased opposing defenses for a 10-plus yard gain on 21% of his attempts (75th percentile).

Based on data since 2017, 45% of Harvey's comps collected a top-24 season by Year 3, and almost 20% knocked down the door for an RB1 campaign.

The Broncos need playmakers, and they found one. The question is how much work Harvey can earn in a backfield that recently added J.K. Dobbins on a one-year, $5.25M deal. Dobbins isn't your garden-variety late offseason signing—he was a good player in 2024. The sixth-year veteran averaged 4.6 yards per carry and busted 14% of his runs for 10+ yards.

Now add in the narrative regarding how much Payton loves to rotate his backs, and we have a recipe for uncertainty. I am continuing to hammer Harvey as his ADP falls because his projection didn't change much for me with the Dobbins signing. I was higher on the touch totals for Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin than the industry average, so most of Dobbins' projections come at their expense rather than Harvey's.

I expect Dobbins to get somewhere between 30 and 40% of the attempts, but that still leaves plenty of room for Harvey in a Payton-coached backfield. So, let's all agree not to panic if we see reports/preseason Utilization in that range. If Harvey falls out of favor and doesn't recover by the end of the preseason, then we will adjust.

6. Will Colston Loveland, Jayden Higgins, Tre Harris, Luther Burden, or Kyle Williams earn starting roles?

This one is as straightforward as it gets. Given their draft capital, these rookies all have a path to start in Week 1. Teams want their early picks to play and make a difference.

Colston Loveland | Bears
 

Loveland is the No. 5 tight end prospect all-time in the Rookie Super Model (88), which has a stronger hit rate on fantasy studs than NFL Draft capital.

Cole Kmet is an adequate NFL starter, and Loveland is recovering from a shoulder injury, so things could start a little slow. Still, the hit rates on profiles like Loveland based on the Super Model have fared exceptionally well, with 100% reaching top-12 status by Year 3.

• Top-three finishes: 33%
• Top-six finishes: 33%
• Top-nine finishes: 67%
• Top-12 finishes: 100%

Loveland has a chance to follow the recent early-breakout trend set by Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta at the position.

Jayden Higgins | Texans

Higgins profiles as a receiver who could start outside opposite of Nico Collins from the word go, with Christian Kirk battling Jaylin Noel for slot duties. However, Kirk has played outside as the Z before, and could also complement Collins at the X position. We are one year removed from C.J. Stroud being regarded as one of the best young signal-callers in the league—he can support multiple weapons.

Luther Burden III | Bears

Burden fell in the NFL Draft process, but he graded out higher than the rest of the rookie WRs mentioned here in a version of the Super Model that excludes draft capital. His best target share season (34%) tied Tetairoa McMillan.

Many see Burden as a gimmick player due to a high concentration of targets behind the line of scrimmage, playing from the slot (32%). That hasn't worked out well for guys like Rondale Moore and Laviska Shenault. However, Burden was also a solid deep threat with 21% of his targets coming 20-plus yards downfield. There were some very compelling comps based on those criteria that worked out in fantasy football.

• Burden: 9.1 aDOT, 32% BLOS, 21% deep
• Calvin Ridley: 9.8 aDOT, 29% BLOS, 19% deep
• Brandon Aiyuk: 10.6 aDOT, 29% BLOS, 22% deep

With Ben Johnson now dialing up plays, Burden could surprise with early playing time despite the presence of DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. It will be interesting to see how often the Bears utilize three-WR sets and if Burden can earn any playing time in two-WR sets with the starters in preseason.

Tre Harris | Chargers

With Mike Williams retiring from the Chargers, Harris will battle former first-rounder Quentin Johnston for the No. 2 role on a team with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert. Yeah, the Chargers want to run the ball, but at this time last year, that scared some folks off of Ladd McConkey, who scored 16.9 points per game after taking over a starting role.

Kyle Williams | Patriots

The Patriots' depth chart doesn't have much to offer in the way of resistance outside of Stefon Diggs, who is recovering from a mid-season ACL injury. Yeah, DeMario Douglas will get slot reps and Hunter Henry could score some TDs, but there is a world where Williams operates as one of the top-two target earners on the team if he can earn the coaching staff's trust this preseason.

All four of these WRs will climb multiple rounds if the camp vibes are good and they see time with the starters in preseason. If they drop a highlight reel catch in one of those games, hold on, their ADP will soar.

One other quick note on the rookies: I assume Tetairoa McMillan, Tyler Warren, and Matthew Golden will start Week 1, but we will monitor and adjust as needed.

7. Does the explosiveness of TreVeyon Henderson catapult him past Rhamondre Stevenson?

The Patriots are in dire need of playmakers. Outside of the dual-threat upside of Drake Maye (very valuable if schemed correctly), defensive coordinators don't have to worry about massive chunk plays breaking games open against New England.

Enter Henderson, who galloped for 10-plus yards on 17% of his attempts and averaged 3.9 yards after contact at Ohio State. Henderson is my No. 5-rated rookie and notched a Super Model Rating of 77 (17th-highest all time).

While he was never highly utilized in the passing game thanks to playing with multiple Round 1 NFL WRs, he flashed big-play ability when given his opportunities. Of 28 backs to achieve a similar score in the model, 95% of them went on to secure a top-36 finish by Year 3. That is a great floor to consider, but there is more meat on the bone, with his comps.

• Top-six finishes: 19%
• Top-12 finishes: 52%
• Top-24 finishes: 76%

Simply stated, Henderson has the type of profile that can go boom, even in a split backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson. However, we will need to see how the Patriots plan to use their young back. I have Stevenson and Henderson projected for an even split, but there is a chance he immediately takes over more work than Stevenson thanks to his score-from-anywhere profile.

Quick Hits

Quarterback

• J.J. McCarthy | Vikings: Evaluating QB play in the preseason isn't easy, but Kevin O'Connell has kept the train rolling regardless of who is under center. While that recipe is fun, there does come a point where the signal caller could cause everything to come undone. Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison's fates are all tied to McCarthy, so the preseason vibes here have significant ramifications. Let's hope McCarthy looks like Sam Darnold last preseason.
• Tyler Shough | Saints: Profiles like Shough that played seven years in college are rare, but there were some injuries along the way. Overall, his comps haven't fared well, but some film grinders are believers, and New Orleans spent a high second-rounder on Shough. If he is average to below average, two (possibly all three) of Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed will outperform their ADPs—they are all talented.

Running Back

• Blake Corum vs. Jarquez Hunter | Rams: Who is the RB2 for the Rams? Los Angeles spent Round 3 and Round 4 draft picks, respectively, on this duo over the last two years. In an offense that is very fantasy-friendly, the winner (if there is one) of this dual could offer giant upside should Corum go down.
• Cleveland Browns: Will Quinshon Judkins get suspended, and if so, who is the No. 2 in this offense? Dylan Sampson offers big-play upside and is a natural runner with tremendous feel, but Jerome Ford has played well as a runner and receiver when given opportunities.
• Kaleb Johnson vs. Jaylen Warren | Steelers: The Steelers snagged Johnson in Round 3 of the NFL Draft, but Warren offers an explosive three-down skillset. Currently, I have Johnson projected to handle more of the early down work, with Warren spelling him and taking over passing-down duties.
• Kenneth Walker III | Seahawks: Can Walker retain the near-every-down role we saw in 2024? The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak, which could create a shakeup in this backfield. I am a believer in Walker's talent profile, but Zach Charbonnet also has Round 2 draft capital and has played well when given a chance.
• Will Shipley | Eagles: Is Shipley the RB2 for the Eagles? If so, he offers a three-down skillset that could lead to big fantasy points should Barkley miss time. A.J. Dillon, who hasn't impressed thus far, is Shipley's primary competition.
• Tony Pollard vs. Tyjae Spears | Titans: The plan last year was to use these guys as a tandem, but health never fully cooperated. They are probably priced too far apart right now, given both have three-down ability. Spears went on a heater from Week 15 to 17 to close out 2024 with Pollard banged up, averaging 20.7 points.

 Wide Receiver

• Deebo Samuel | Commanders: We don't know if Samuel is washed given the pneumonia situation last year, but he couldn't have found a better landing spot for his skillset. Kliff Kingsbury loves WR screens and the RPO game, which could be deadly with Jayden Daniels at the controls.

• Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the incumbent starters, but Egbuka has a lot of outs. Godwin isn't practicing yet, and the Bucs passing attack could be good enough for Egbuka to provide value with everyone healthy. However, that will require heavy usage of three-WR sets, which is something to monitor.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Cooper Kupp | Seahawks: Who is the starting slot WR for this team? Njigba was a Year 2 breakout, but he isn't a deep threat. Playing from the slot is his best fit, but that is also the best fit for Kupp. Of course, both could play from the outside and run more underneath and intermediate routes like we have seen from Chris Godwin in the past. I am in on JSN this year in a pretty big way, but would love to see him playing to his strengths.
• Stefon Diggs | Patriots: Will the veteran be ready for Week 1? Early signs are positive, and he notched a 24% target share and 14.5 points per game in eight games with Houston last year. Aging receivers (31) often benefit from a move to the slot, which helped Diggs last season, making that an additional layer to monitor. Currently, DeMario Douglas mans the slot.

• Tennessee Titans: The Titans added Tyler Lockett in the offseason, but he hasn't offered much in the last two seasons. Rookies Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike will try to push Lockett for reps.

Tight End

• Elijah Arroyo vs. AJ Barner | Seahawks: With Noah Fant moving on, this will be a training camp battle to monitor. Arroyo offers the size-speed combination to stretch the seams, which could help open things up underneath for Kupp and JSN. If he wins the job, he becomes a sleeper TE.
• Mason Taylor | Jets: The rookie second-round pick doesn't have much competition standing between him and a starting role. Outside of Garrett Wilson, the Jets target pecking order is wide open.

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