Shit happens in fantasy football land. Whether it's another manager deciding they need the exact player you were hoping would fall just one more spot, or irrational roster construction ruining your carefully crafted strategy: The only certainty during any given fantasy draft is the general uncertainty surrounding what the hell everyone is going to do.

While this inherent randomness can be tilting at times, it also makes fantasy football a lot of fun — particularly when we can use it to our advantage.

Enter: Tier-based drafting. This is essentially the practice of asking yourself "What can I get now that I can't get later" before every pick and acting accordingly. This practice certainly goes hand in hand with fantasy football rankings and general draft strategy; just realize leaning on tiers is really useful when attempting to discern whether or not you have the luxury of waiting on the position in question, or if the time to act is meow.

Today's goal: WR tiers with superlatives to highlight some of the biggest questions facing the involved signal-callers. The WRs are listed in order of my personal rankings inside the tiers and are followed by some superlative-themed write-ups. Check out my team preview series for full thoughts on every team's WR room.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

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Tier 1: Ballers, shot callers (6)

These guys are incredible real-life football players and the engine of their respective offenses. MAYBE we could nitpick one or two factors, but even then that's probably overthinking things…

• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: Fantasy's reigning WR1 has the best combination of elite talent, QB play and projected volume of any player at the position.
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: Responsible for PFF's top two seasons in yards per route run since 2010; nobody has averaged more PPR points per game (21.9) over the past two seasons.
• Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase: Only Randy Moss (43), Rob Gronkowski (38) and Odell Beckham Jr. (35) have caught more TDs during the first three seasons of their career in the Moss era. There's a reason why Chase is currently the WR4 in career PPR points per game (18.0) … ever.
• Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Top 10 in yards per route run (2.27) and targets per route run (26%) since entering the league in 2021; we're talking about the engine of a Lions passing game that has produced back-to-back fifth-place finishes in total points.
• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: The QB concerns are valid, but what if Jefferson is so f*cking good at football that it doesn't matter?
• Eagles WR A.J. Brown: Back-to-back WR8 finishes in PPR points per game; perhaps the best is on the way inside a Kellen Moore-led offense expected to utilize faster pace and more pre-snap motion.

Most likely to deal with some pretty meh QB play: Justin Jefferson

The history of rookie QBs enabling high-end fantasy WRs is, well, not good. The No. 1 fantasy WR in PPR points per game has posted the following production from 41 offenses that have started a rookie QB for at least 10 games in a season since 2010:

• 5/41 finished in the top-12 (12%)
• 13/41 finished in the top-24 (32%)
• Average finish: WR33
• Median finish: WR35
• High: WR7
• Low: WR67

Of course, Justin Jefferson isn't your everyday No. 1 WR. The man has averaged 106 and 107 receiving yards per game over the past two seasons, emerging as the typical frontrunner on count-down lists of the game's very best players at the position.

Overall, only Tyreek Hill has averaged more yards per route run than Jefferson (2.67) since the latter WR entered the league back in 2020. The QB concerns here are real, but MAN is it tough to wrap the mind around fading this sort of ascending talent.

Ultimately, Jefferson should see enough volume to still return top-five goodness in fantasy land with his talent level. While I've usually drafted Lamb, Hill and Chase ahead of him this offseason, you should never be completely out on anyone with a realistic path to achieving a target total starting with a two.

Tier 2: Talented, undisputed No. 1 WRs (4)

Arguably tier-one candidates with realistic paths to top-five standing. While we haven't seen them reach these heights just yet, it seems more like a matter of WHEN not IF they do…

• Jets WR Garrett Wilson: The poster child of "stats don't always tell the whole story" when evaluating the best WR talents in the league.
• Falcons WR Drake London: Newfound above-average QB play and passing volume is expected for the certified baller who offers borderline erotic contested-catch ability in addition to nifty route-running nuance for a man standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 215 pounds.
• Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.: The artist known as Maserati Marv was most people's pick for the single-best WR in college football over the past two years; his year-one ranking is lofty but fair considering he enters an offense with minimal target competition and a proven stud under center.
• Saints WR Chris Olave: ESPN's ninth-best WR in "Open Score" over the past two seasons racked up the second-most unrealized air yards in 2023 — you could argue Olave is a poor man's CeeDee Lamb when it comes to his combination of talent, volume and QB level.

Most likely to flourish now that he has a decent QB: Garrett Wilson

Wilson is an absolute stud and if you disagree, that's on you.

Sadly, the 2022 NFL Draft's No. 10 overall pick's 2023 campaign was more so defined by the lack of catchable opportunities he received. There were way too many examples of Wilson springing wide open … only to never get a real chance to make a play.

ESPN's "Open Score" metric demonstrates the reality that Wilson was one of the position's best separators last season:

1. Keenan Allen (91)
2. CeeDee Lamb (85)
3. Kalif Raymond (84 – don't laugh, Kalif is a baller)
4. Tyreek Hill (83)
5. Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown (82)

Overall, Davante Adams (54) and Wilson (53) led the NFL in total targets that were deemed uncatchable by PFF.

Speaking of Adams, remember when Rodgers fed him 169 targets during their final season together? Wilson (168) nearly met that mark last year despite operating in an offense that threw the football at a neutral rate throughout 2023. Fantasy Life projections see a similar phenomenon occurring in 2024, as Wilson's 145 projected targets are good for the sixth-highest mark in the NFL.

Summary: Wilson is a great football player who has been forced to deal with essentially league-worst QB play throughout his first two seasons in the NFL. It'd make a whole lot of sense if this ascending third-year stud finally puts up the sort of production to match his obvious talent with Rodgers under center; their brief, yet electric, preseason showing together sure seemed to indicate big things were on the way.

Tier 3: WR1-caliber players but there's just one problem (12)

Whether it's target competition or a less-than-ideal situation under center: These real-life ballers have one red enough flag to keep them out of the position's top-10 options ahead of 2024…

• Rams WR Puka Nacua: The biggest and best surprise of the 2023 season now costs first-round draft capital to acquire in fantasy leagues of most shapes and sizes.
• 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk: ESPN (No. 1) and PFF (No. 2) both graded Aiyuk among the position's top two players of 2023; the only problem is volume, as Fantasy Life Projections have him leading the 2024 49ers in targets … with 110.
• Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle: Would be a WR1 in plenty of different offenses around the league mostly thanks to the sort of hot, nasty, badass speed that most mere mortals can only dream of possessing. Waddle's typical upside WR2 standing also carries league-breaking upside should Tyreek Hill ever miss any time.
• Texans WR Nico Collins: Joins Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp and Julio Jones as the only three WRs to average three-plus yards per route run in a single season over the past decade. I expect the big and fast man to continue working as the Texans' No. 1 pass-game target, even if the overall target ceiling is a bit capped compared to last year.
• Giants WR Malik Nabers: Nabers' raw talent and target upside make him deserving of low-end WR2 treatment from day one, even if a future QB change is probably needed to unlock his full upside down the stretch. I'm projecting a similar season as what Jaylen Waddle accomplished as a rookie.
• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: Has gone a perfect 10-for-10 in logging 1,000-yard seasons since joining the Buccaneers in 2014, and neither his 2023 film nor his underlying efficiency numbers (2.23 yards per route run, 12th among 80 qualified WRs) showed any real signs of decline.
• Raiders WR Davante Adams: B-e-a-utiful double-moves that created all sorts of separation were constantly met with inaccurate deep balls. Ultimately, Adams (54) led the NFL in total targets that were deemed uncatchable by PFF, and it's tough to call potential new QB1 Gardner Minshew a meaningful upgrade under center.
• Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf: WR41, WR10, WR22, WR25 and WR22 in PPR points per game since entering the NFL in 2019. Being exceptionally big and fast has helped Metcalf go a long way, although his target-earning ability has left a bit to be desired over the years on a team always content to keep multiple WRs heavily involved in the offense.
• Bears WR D.J. Moore: Moore set career-high marks in virtually every counting stat including receptions (96), receiving yards (1,364) and TDs (9) last season and is likely receiving a solid QB upgrade, although target competition is suddenly much higher with the newfound presence of longtime stud Keenan Allen and ninth-overall pick Rome Odunze.
• Colts WR Michael Pittman: Pittman's half-PPR WR7, WR46, WR95 and WR37 finishes in Richardson's four starts weren't great, but the Colts certainly wouldn't have given Pittman his three-year, $70 million extension if they didn't view him as a legit No. 1 WR worthy of receiving all sorts of fantasy-friendly targets.
• 49ers WR Deebo Samuel: Essentially the Nick Chubb of WRs considering his production (WR3, WR28 and WR13 in PPR points per game since 2023) despite meh volume (WR14, WR21 and WR33 in expected PPR points per game), Samuel is an injury away from seeing the sort of weekly workload that could help him return to 2021 heights.
• Eagles WR DeVonta Smith: AJB (289 targets 2022-23) is certainly the No. 1 option ahead of Smith (244), but both players rank inside the position's top-16 most-targeted options over the past two seasons — don't be surprised if both eat inside this (hopefully) more pass-happy and better-schemed Kellen Moore-led offensive attack.

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Most likely to fall back to earth just a bit: Rams WR Puka Nacua

Last season Nacua and Cooper Kupp played 12 full games together. They posted the following usage and production:

• Nacua: 100 targets, 66 receptions, 1,055 yards, 4 TD
• Kupp: 99 targets, 63 receptions, 753 yards, 5 TD

The superior counting numbers from Puka reflect the reality that the NFL's all-time leader in rookie year receiving yards (1,486) was pretty, pretty, pretty good. Then again, we only need to go back … one season to find the last time Kupp worked as fantasy's overall WR1 in PPR points per game. Suffering multiple sprained ankles and a pulled hammy since November 2022 is hardly ideal for projecting the 31-year-old veteran to start partying like it's 2021 again, but simply assuming that Kupp is now this offense's clear-cut No. 2 WR when healthy also doesn't make much sense.

If anything, this group has the look of some of McVay's early Rams squads that regularly leaned on both Kupp and Robert Woods as their 1.A/1.B pass-game options. Things were split VERY evenly between Kupp (134, 124 targets) and the artist known as Bobby Trees (139, 129) during the 2019 and 2020 seasons before the former WR separated himself as THE guy in 2021.

I have a hard time taking Puka ahead of more clear-cut No. 1 WRs like A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London in Round 1, although it's tough to slide the reigning WR6 in PPR points per game too far down the ole fantasy ranks. Our consensus ranks have Puka as the WR6, WR7, WR8 … and WR11 from your boy. I'm a hater because I think Nacua is fantasy's 11th-best WR instead of the sixth. That's the world we live in.

Tier 4: You can talk yourself into a WR1 finish (7)

Things aren't crystal clear here — if they were each WR would be going a helluva lot higher in drafts — but even then it's tough to argue with each player's POTENTIAL to reach, or re-reach, WR1 heights should an exterior factor or two break their way…

• Steelers WR George Pickens: Averaged 89 yards per game in four contests without Diontae Johnson last season; an improved QB situation could help the big-play merchant truly explode in year three
• Bengals WR Tee Higgins: Ripped off WR12 and WR19 finishes in PPR points per game during his last two seasons with a fully healthy Joe Burrow under center; the overqualified No. 2 WR is seemingly only as cheap as he is because of now-irrelevant offseason holdout concerns.
• Texans WR Tank Dell: Absolutely electric as a rookie and actually tied Nico Collins in total targets (52) in seven games together where each played at least half of the offense's snaps. Dell (36%) joined Collins (40%) as two of the league's top-eight WRs in percentage of games to produce a top-12 finish in half-PPR scoring.
• Browns WR Amari Cooper: Has actually averaged more receiving yards per game (77.1) in 11 contests with Deshaun Watson compared to 22 games without (73.7) since joining the Browns; the longtime stud WR continues to look the part of an upside WR2 in fantasy land thanks in large part to his ever-marvelous route-running ability.
• Rams WR Cooper Kupp: We only need to go back … one season to find the last time Kupp worked as fantasy's overall WR1 in PPR points per game. Suffering multiple sprained ankles and a pulled hammy since November 2022 is hardly ideal for projecting the 31-year-old veteran to start partying like it's 2021 again, but simply assuming he's now this offense's clear-cut No. 2 WR when healthy also doesn't make much sense.
• Texans WR Stefon Diggs: Here’s to hoping Diggs’ final 10 games in Buffalo were more of a fugazi and less of a sign of things to come. The 30-year-old veteran ripped off 127-1535-8, 103-1225-10, 108-1429-11 and 107-1183-8 receiving lines during his four seasons in Buffalo and once again gets to play with most people's idea of an elite QB.
• Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown: Worked as the PPR WR5 during the first six weeks of 2022 the last time that he was truly healthy. Both Mecole Hardman (WR32) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR36) provided WR3 production on a PPR per game basis back in 2022; there's a decent floor here even if none of the new-age Chiefs WRs manage to flirt with Tyreek Hill's past ceiling

Most likely to easily lead their offense in targets: George Pickens

Pickens certainly took advantage of his time without Diontae Johnson on the field in 2023:

• 4 reception-127 yards-1 TD (PPR WR11)
• 4-75-0 (WR37)
• 3-25-0 (WR65)
• 6-130-1 (WR5)

The presence of Russ and/or Fields under center also helps matters when, you know, comparing things against what Pickens and company have been dealing with over the past few seasons. Still not exactly fishing with dynamite, but both Courtland Sutton (59-772-10) and (especially) D.J. Moore (96-1,364-8) proved capable of being fantasy studs with those signal-callers last season.

It’s not a given that Pickens reaches the same heights as those two receivers, especially considering Arthur Smith's aforementioned history of establishing the ole run at very high levels.

That said: The upside here is tantalizing. Pickens just turned 23 in March and has largely made the most out of his opportunities during his first two seasons in the league.

Most yards per target among 63 players with 150-plus targets 2022-23:

1. Brandon Aiyuk (10.8)
2. Jaylen Waddle (10.7)
3. Tyreek Hill (10.3)
4. George Pickens (10.2)

The tape backs up the idea that Pickens might be ready to truly explode in year three — something that has been commonplace in fantasy land over the years. It'd be a lot cooler if he was in an offense where 150-plus targets were on the table, but don't discount his potential to make a LOT of good things happen even with something closer to 100. Fantasy Life Projections currently have Pickens slotted for 114 pass-game opportunities — the same as Jaylen Waddle and Amari Cooper.

Tier 5: There's a red flag, but you could imagine (8)

It's not hard to figure out why these players aren't competing for top-20 placement at the position. Then again, each has a path to leading their offense in targets to varying degrees, so maybe, JUST maybe, we're underestimating the upside here…

• Jaguars WR Christian Kirk: Supplied better efficiency numbers in terms of yards per route run (2.07 vs. 1.79) and targets per route run (21.1% vs. 19.8%) in his injury-riddled encore in Jacksonville; maybe the departure of Calvin Ridley leads to Kirk's red-zone target volume more closely resembling 2022 (22) than 2023 (5), but the team's addition of *two* new big-bodied outside WRs doesn't seem ideal.
• Commanders WR Terry McLaurin: WR29, WR20, WR30, WR23 and WR36 in PPR points per game since entering the NFL and now possibly experiencing the best QB play of his career. McLaurin is a baller, but the average finish from the No. 1 WR from teams starting a rookie QB for 10-plus games since 2010 is … WR33.
• Ravens WR Zay Flowers: Flowers made a habit of making defenders look silly in the open field as a rookie. ESPN's 10th-highest-rated overall WR last season, the 2023 NFL Draft's No. 22 overall pick's biggest problem is a run-first offense that figures to continue featuring stud TE Mark Andrews as the No. 1 pass-game option.
• Titans WR Calvin Ridley: Suddenly the NFL's seventh-highest-paid WR in terms of total contract value, Ridley has a troublesome combination of potentially porous QB play and legit target competition, but then again it'd make sense if the soon to be 30-year-old veteran is a better version of himself after dealing with some understandable rust in 2023.
• Panthers WR Diontae Johnson: Looks a lot like the undisputed No. 1 pass-game option in a Panthers offense that can't get much worse than it was in 2023.
• Packers WR Jayden Reed: Profiles as the most-used WR in this ascending Jordan Love-led passing attack and led the way in PPR points per game (11.4) when Christian Watson was fully healthy last season. Still, his lack of a role in two-WR sets isn't ideal inside an offense that goes four deep at the position.
• Bears WR Rome Odunze: The contested-catch maestro also boasts some tantalizing route-running chops. There's a reason why no Power 5 WR had more receiving yards than him (2,784) during the last two years, but he's projected to finish third in this crowded passing game in targets (97) behind D.J. Moore (117) and Keenan Allen (106).
• Bears WR Keenan Allen: Was ESPN's single-best WR at getting open last season on his way to catching a career-high 108 passes in just 13 games. The reigning WR3 (!) in PPR points per game, there wasn't much on-field evidence that a dropoff is imminent for Allen, although 32-year-old veterans don't typically make a lot of noise in fantasy land.

Most likely to emerge as fantasy's cheapest target-hog WR1: Diontae Johnson

Yes: Johnson is objectively a very good NFL WR. Drops have certainly occurred, but fun fact: Puka Nacua led the NFL in drops last season, and nobody cares! Because nobody should. Peep the statistic's leaderboard during any given season and you'll see a bunch of ballers who got open often enough to earn a bunch of targets that (unfortunately) led to quite a few drops along the way.

Ultimately, the one thing that Johnson does better than just about anyone: Separation. ESPN Analytics' “Open Score” WR rating has done a good job of quantifying this in recent years:

• 2023: 78 (No. 11 among all qualified WRs)
• 2022: 99 (No. 1)
• 2021: 87 (No. 4)
• 2020: 92 (No. 3)
• 2019: 91 (No. 2)

While Johnson isn't necessarily guaranteed to work as the No. 1 target in Carolina ahead of soon-to-be 34-year-old WR Adam Thielen and first-rounder Xavier Legette, Fantasy Life Projections do give the ex-Steelers talent the edge:

• Johnson: 124 target projection
• Thielen: 91
• Legette: 79
• Mingo: 48

While we shouldn't put TOO much stock into offseason coach speak, the early statements from Dave Canales are pretty, pretty, pretty good. 

Tier 6: Boom-or-bust WR4s (14)

WR4s in terms of fantasy placement, not depth chart listing. Of course, said depth charts are the primary problem here: Each WR in this tier has more uncertainty than most when it comes to where they stack up in their respective offense's pass-game pecking order, even if there's some upside to be had should they rise to the top…

• Packers WR Christian Watson: The highs have been awfully high, but troublesome hamstrings make the rising third-year talent a risky bet to lead this suddenly crowded passing game.
• Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins:  ESPN's "Open Rating" dubbed Hopkins as a top-five separator alongside Garrett Wilson and A.J. Brown last season, while the artist known as Nuk rather drastically out-performed Ridley in all those most meaningful advanced metrics. If only there was a bit more certainty in terms of volume and QB ability.
• Jaguars WR BrIan Thomas: Stands 6-foot-3 and weighs 209 pounds with a 4.33-second 40. Thomas scored a TD every four catches during his final season at LSU and should replace Calvin Ridley as Trevor Lawrence's new favorite deep-ball and red-zone threat, although it's not a guarantee the rookie manages to work ahead of Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and/or Evan Engram in T-Law's pecking order.
• Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy: Worthy plays fast and offers big-play ability in the screen game as well as when stretching the field. Both Mecole Hardman (WR32) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR36) provided WR3 production on a PPR per game basis back in 2022; there's a decent floor here even if none of the new-age Chiefs WRs manage to flirt with Tyreek Hill's past ceiling.
• Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin: The word out of Bucs camp is that Godwin will be playing more in the slot this season, we'll see if his superior career numbers there are more due to alignment or simply better circumstances under center. Godwin has ranked just 32nd and 33rd in yards per route run since his season-ending 2021 knee injury.
• Chargers WR Ladd McConkey: McConkey's relatively meh 106-target projection reflects the reality that securing the No. 1 job in this passing game still might not lead to all that much fantasy-friendly opportunity, even if the 34th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft certainly profiles as the most fantasy-friendly option in this Justin Herbert-led attack.
• Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Certainly seems happy to have a new offensive coordinator in town after failing to reach even 65 yards in a single game as a rookie. Still, this is a crowded passing game that once again projects D.K. Metcalf (120) and Tyler Lockett (102) to lead the way in targets over JSN (97).
• Chiefs WR Rashee Rice: Reports have speculated that Rice could be suspended for eight-plus games … or that a lengthy legal process could result in no punishment until the 2025 season. Once active Rice will again be a staple in the weekly WR2 conversation thanks to his PPR-friendly low-aDOT role in this ever-lethal passing attack.
• Bills WR Curtis Samuel: Three-year, $24 million deal includes $15 million guaranteed, likely locking Samuel into two WR sets for the next few years. The ex-Panthers and Commanders talent possesses dual-threat ability at WR and RB and an intriguing blend of field-stretching and YAC ability. Samuel posted solid production as both a receiver (77-851-3) and rusher (41-200-2) with Joe Brady as his OC back in 2020.
• Broncos WR Courtland Sutton: Made all sorts of cool contested catches last year and suddenly profiles as the clear-cut No. 1 WR with Jerry Jeudy now residing in Cleveland. Of course, the presence of Bo Nix under center might not yield great year-one results inside of an offense fully expected to be among the worst in the NFL. But hey, volume, baby. 
• Lions WR Jameson Williams: The rising third-year receiver certainly flashed as a deep threat and with some solid YAC in 2023, but at the end of the day: Williams has just 464 total yards and four scores across 18 regular season games since being drafted with the No. 12 overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. No more Josh Reynolds helps; just realize triple-digit targets are far from guaranteed.
• Saints WR Rashid Shaheed: The Saints were happy to feature Chris Olave (86% routes) and Shaheed (79%) as the clear-cut top two WRs after Michael Thomas was sidelined last year. Shaheed is a certified baller who leads the NFL in yards per target (11.1) over the past two seasons.
• Vikings WR Jordan Addison: A suspension is possible for the lead-footed driver. There's also potential for meh QB performance inside of a passing game fully expected to continue flowing the majority of its volume through Justin Jefferson. Note that Addison caught seven TDs in eight games with Cousins under center … and three in nine games without.
• Bills WR Keon Coleman: The 2024 NFL Draft's No. 33 overall pick provides Josh Allen with arguably the most lethal contested-catch artist of his short career; there's double-digit TD upside here if Coleman is NFL-ready enough to rise to the top of this admittingly soft depth chart.

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Most likely to emerge as THE guy in a crowded WR room: Christian Watson

The Packers have a league-low $11.5 million devoted to their WR room ahead of 2024, and yet they boast one of the league's more promising groups as a whole thanks to their continued ability to nail day two and three picks at the position.

Now for the tricky part: What's the pecking order here?

Our best sample to draw from is probably Weeks 5-13. This featured the healthiest stretch of the season for Watson, who missed the final five regular season games and was limited in the playoffs due to a hamstring injury.

Packers WRs in Weeks 5-13

• Romeo Doubs: 83% routes, 15% targets, 9.6 PPR points per game
• Christian Watson: 82% routes, 19% targets, 11.4 PPR points per game
• Jayden Reed: 63% routes, 15% targets, 11.4 PPR points per game
• Dontayvion Wicks: 34% routes, 10% targets, 6.6 PPR points per game

Note that Melton didn't receive his first career target until Week 15, and Heath also got more involved down the stretch as well. Doubs was the only Packers WR to run a route on at least 60% of the offense's dropbacks in both playoff games, as LaFleur was content to largely rotate his treasure chest of young talents.

The bull and bear cases for Watson in particular:

• Good: Watson looked like the No. 1 on this team during a rookie season that featured him score eight TDs in just four weeks at one point. He seemed ready to begin a similar streak last season with four scores in his final three games before getting injured.
• Bad: The rising third-year receiver has already suffered three separate hamstring injuries since entering the league in 2022 and was easily the team's least efficient WR or TE in terms of passer rating when targeted. Part of that is due to the natural volatility that goes alongside a higher-aDOT role; just realize it's not a guarantee he will regain a true every-down role in this suddenly crowded passing game.

This could be a situation where a different WR leads in targets during any given week, but Watson certainly has flashed the ability to REALLY make the most out of his opportunities during his short career. 

Tier 7: Probable complementary WRs … unless we're wrong! (13)

And when have fantasy analysts ever been wrong?! I kid, but seriously: There are certainly good things to say about each of these options, but worrisome floors also exist with all parties involved due to age and/or potential volume…

• Chargers WR Joshua Palmer: Put up career-best efficiency numbers in 2023 and possesses a level of fluidity that helped him make plays both after the catch and downfield; Palmer is a dark horse to lead this team in targets and doesn't turn 25 until September.
• Packers WR Romeo Doubs: Had 199 more receiving yards than the next-closest Packers WR during the playoffs last season and led the room in route rate (83%) with a healthy Christian Watson involved during Weeks 5-13 last season.
• Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett: Out-targeted Jaxon Smith-Njigba (122 vs. 93) last season, although career-worst efficiency in terms of yards per target (7.3) finally prevented the longtime baller from smashing his preseason ADP.
• Bills WR Khalil Shakir: Somehow managed more receiving yards than Diggs (462 vs. 422) during the Bills' final 10 games of 2023 on less than half the targets (80 vs. 37). Don't expect the rising third-year WR to average 13.6 yards per target again, but volume-based WR3 upside is possible (particularly in full-PPR formats).
• Panthers WR Xavier Legette: Seemingly only as cheap as he is in fantasy drafts due to most draft pundits being surprised that he wound up earning first-round draft capital.
• Colts WR Josh Downs: Has a big fan in Colts GM Chris Ballard and flashed the ability to be more than just a low-aDOT slot merchant during his time at North Carolina. Still, it's tough to be too excited about the No. 2 (at best) pass-game option in an offense projected to rank 24th or worse in total pass attempts, yards and TDs.
• Colts WR AD Mitchell: The freak athlete (fifth-best RAS score out of 3,188 WRs from 1987 to 2024) flashed tantalizing ability as both a downfield maestro and as a red-zone maverick. Mitchell was asked to run big boy NFL-caliber routes as a true X receiver at Texas and supplied some sweet highlights, although he'll probably work as the No. 3 pass-game option inside this expected run-first attack.
• Browns WR Jerry Jeudy: Still just 25 years of age, the former 15th overall pick shouldn't be viewed as a complete lost cause just yet, but expecting TOO high of heights as the No. 2 WR inside what will likely continue to be at least a somewhat run-heavy offense doesn't seem overly wise.
• Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks: A favorite of "ball knowers" after supplying plenty of dope highlights as a rookie, but Wicks is also tentatively expected to work as the Packers' No. 4 WR when everyone is healthy.
• Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks: Cooks had five or fewer targets in 11 of 17 games last year. Maybe that number does indeed boom without Michael Gallup in the equation, but then again we're approaching ROUGH territory when it comes to Cook's age cliff.
• Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers: The ex-Patriots receiver made plenty of great plays during his debut in Vegas, even getting his old boss to admit they shouldn't have let him go. Still, Meyers' early-season 1.B role quickly evaporated when Antonio Pierce took over and Jimmy Garoppolo took a seat on the bench. Overall, Adams racked up a whopping 94 targets from Week 9 on last season … and Meyers had 49.
• Jets WR Mike Williams: Has multiple 1,000-plus yard seasons to his name, but is far from guaranteed to be his usual big-play self coming off a torn ACL. Williams also will turn 30 in October.
• Commanders WR Jahan Dotson: Flashed in 2022 and proved capable of creating separation at all three levels of the field, but he profiles as the hopeful No. 2 pass-game option in an offense not exactly expected to resemble the 1999 Rams: Fantasy Life projections have Jayden Daniels tabbed for just 3,334 yards and 20 TDs.

Most likely to make some ridiculous highlight-reel-worthy catches: Xavier Legette

Legette isn't the perfect prospect. He never eclipsed even 200 yards in a season prior to his breakout 2023 campaign (71-1,255-7), resulting in an underwhelming rating in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model. twenty-four next January, Legette would hardly be the first "one-year wonder" who ultimately fails to put forward big-time production at the next level.

Then again, God only makes so many 6-foot-1, 221-pound athletes with sub-4.4 speed, and this one just so happened to go 32nd in last April's NFL Draft. The Athletic's Dane Brugler summed up Legette nicely in his critically acclaimed "The Beast" breakdown:

“Legette is at his best on runway routes (verticals, posts, crossers) or sweeps and end-arounds that get his long-striding acceleration going. He doesn’t consistently shake tight man coverage, but he will use his size to play strong through contact. Overall, Legette needs to continue developing his route proficiency and tempo, but his film gives off DK Metcalf vibes, and he has the explosive speed and physicality to be a matchup weapon. He should be an immediate contributor on special teams before competing for starting reps outside.”

Dave Canales' early vision for the rookie certainly seems promising when paired with this scouting report.

Ultimately, the real allure of Legette comes down to the reality that there aren't many WRs with his sort of target ceiling available at this stage of the draft. The Panthers are fully expected to start Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen and Legette in three-WR sets, meaning there's a non-zero chance the rookie emerges as Bryce Young's new No. 1 target sooner rather than later in 2024.

Clear-cut No. 2 or worse options like Gabe Davis and Jahan Dotson are presently going ahead of Legette in early drafts. Don't be afraid to buy low on a freaky athletic talent with first-round draft capital.

Tier 8: Young guns and perhaps overlooked vets (20)

There's an alarming lack of recent production here, which probably means big things aren't on the horizon in 2024. Of course, this is the offseason where possibilities are limitless — at a minimum, the heavy majority of these players should at least be starting in three WR sets come September, making them fine enough late-round darts…

• Patriots WR Ja'Lynn Polk: His status as the 37th overall pick surprised many and should cement a spot in three-WR sets from day one for the tough contested-catch artist who seems to be pretty good at everything, even if there maybe isn't an overly elite attribute to his game. My comp: Gen-Z Robert Woods (AKA Bobby Trees).
• Ravens WR Rashod Bateman: Started to flash as a route-runner down the stretch of last season even if the production never quite came along. There's a low floor here — Bateman had more than 40 yards in a game just once in 2023 — but the Ravens' decision to let OBJ walk and to give their former first-round pick a two-year, $15.25 million extension should lead to more opportunity in 2024 should the injury Gods chill the hell out for once.
• Bengals WR Jermaine Burton: The favorite for starting duties after being selected with the 2024 NFL Draft's 80th overall pick. Of course, Burton was largely only available that late due to off-the-field concerns. The Georgia/Alabama product posted an elite career-targeted passer rating (115.8) and is the sort of non-first/second-round rookie profile worth betting on.
• Chargers WR Quentin Johnston: His rookie season was marred by some truly bad drops and generally porous production. The one facet of the game where Johnston seemed to flash was after the catch, something that Greg Roman has talked about expanding on in 2024. While the history of first-round picks with such brutal production in year one is littered with busts, the Chargers certainly appear ready to give the 22-year-old talent another chance to prove his worth in 2024.
• Falcons WR Darnell Mooney: WR59, WR29, WR59 and most recently WR88 in PPR points per game since entering the league. The money here is indeed nice, but don't get it twisted: Plenty of high-priced WRs have gone on to dud in fantasy land upon joining a new team in free agency.
• Jaguars WR Gabe Davis: Ranks 58th in yards per route run (1.51) and 82nd in targets per route run (15.5%) among 95 qualified WRs since 2020. His contract certainly implies he'll have a home in three WR sets; just realize the list of WRs signing big-money deals with new teams in free agency isn't great.
• Rams WR Demarcus Robinson: Looks a lot like the clear-cut third WR in this potent Matthew Stafford-led passing attack that loves to sit in 11 personnel.
• Broncos WR Marvin Mims: Sadly saw more deep ball targets (20-plus yards downfield) during the first four weeks of the year (6) than he did during the final 14 (5). It sounds like the second-year receiver will take Jeudy's spot in the starting lineup, but then again the 2023 second-round pick spent plenty of time rotating with the likes of Brandon Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey down the stretch of last season.
• Patriots WR DeMario Douglas: Showed off some YAC goodness and demonstrated better underlying metrics than what his overall counting numbers suggested in year one. He's the favorite for No. 2 WR duties, although the new coaching staff and QB hardly make that a guarantee.
• 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall: Currently dealing with a hamstring injury that could compromise the savvy route-runner's ability to earn a spot in three-WR sets ahead of badass blocker Jauan Jennings.
• Panthers WR Adam Thielen: Production fell off a cliff during the second half of the season, and it's tough to see him demanding double-digit targets with the same frequency in 2024 inside of a much more crowded WR room.
• Cardinals WR Michael Wilson: Flashed a bit as a rookie on his way to earning ESPN's sixth-best catch rating. Wilson, like Greg Dortch, projects as a starter at the moment, but the rising second-year receiver is the favorite to stay on the field in two-WR looks. Fantasy Life Projections accordingly have Wilson earning the third-most targets on the team.
• Steelers WR Roman Wilson: The rookie really will need to hit the ground running in order to make up for potentially limited volume — particularly if he struggles to crack two-WR sets inside of an offense that is expected to lean on two-TE personnel more often. The Falcons ran a league-high 670 plays with at least two TEs on the field last season — 199 more than the next-closest offense (Patriots).
• Broncos WR Troy Franklin: Is smooth with it and someone many draft pundits believed could be a day-two pick. Alas, the Oregon product wound up going 102nd overall and now reunites with his college QB. Franklin's speed makes him an immediate field-stretching threat at the next level, even if size concerns (6-foot-2, 176 pounds) could prohibit too big of a rookie season role from emerging.
• Jets WR Malachi Corley: The YAC specialist has earned some Deebo comps during this offseason cycle, but the historical hit rate on players with a high percentage of manufactured touches (low aDOT and low wide alignment rate) is full of landmines.
• Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan: This doesn't look like the sort of passing game to bet too heavily on the likely No. 3 option, particularly with McMillan's rookie Supermodel score paling in comparison to his peers. Still, this is a cheap price for any WR with third-round draft capital.
• Patriots WR Javon Baker: Apparently makes people in wheelchairs stand up, although the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model wasn't thrilled with his relative lack of career production prior to 2023. Will rise in the ranks should a starting role emerge in this wide-open passing game.
• Cardinals WR Greg Dortch: Our one true short king is objectively good at football. Just ask Kyler, who said the pint-sized receiver would be a top-five option at the position if he were 6-foot-3. Man coverage is a death sentence against Dortch, who tentatively profiles as the offense's full-time slot after Rondale Moore was traded to the Falcons.
• Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson: It'd make a lot of sense if Robinson's designed touches out of the slot are given to Malik Nabers, but the rising third-year talent could also be a better version of himself inside this shallow WR room now that he's a full year removed from 2022's season-ending knee injury.
• Commanders WR Luke McCaffrey: Maybe Luke got the Christian McCaffrey genes, or maybe he got the Max McCaffrey ones. Either way, the QB-convert is still learning the nuances of the position and could struggle to play an every-down role in an offense that looks ready to lean into 12 personnel.

Most likely to provide some cheap boom-or-bust WR4 value: Demarcus Robinson

The former Chiefs talent proved he was still capable of putting together some solid performances down the stretch of last season:

• Week 13: 4 receptions-55 yards-1 TD
• Week 14: 3-46-1
• Week 15: 2-44-1
• Week 16: 6-82-1
• Week 17: 6-92-0
• Wild Card: 3-44-0

D-Rob won on the outside against man coverage with regularity down the stretch and posted a route rate north of 90% in all five of his final meaningful games.

Nobody is expecting the soon-to-be 30-year-old veteran to overtake Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp in Stafford's pecking order, but he does profile as the No. 3 WR inside of an offense that has ranked first in total snaps out of 11 personnel in three consecutive seasons. There's legit potential here for something close to top-50 standalone production and truly enticing contingency upside should either Nacua or Kupp miss any game action.

Tier 9: Get those rose-colored glasses out (15)

Starting jobs aren't even guaranteed at this point for players who may or may not even be overly good at the game of football. But have you ever done a 20-round fantasy draft, bro? That's what I thought…

• Giants WR Darius Slayton: Quietly has racked up 700-plus yards in four of five career seasons and might just profile as the most prototypical "X" in this Giants passing game. Of course, the ceiling in this passing game isn't exactly expected to be all that high, and expecting consistency outside of Malik Nabers is probably wishful thinking.
• Lions WR Kalif Raymond: Is truly good at football despite being relegated to more of a part-time role throughout most of his career due to his diminutive size (5-foot-9, 162 pounds). He didn't register a single game with a snap rate north of 50% in 2023 and could continue to be little more than a gadget player despite the departure of Josh Reynolds.
• Ravens WR Devontez Walker: The Kent State/North Carolina product has intriguing speed (4.36-second 40-yard dash) and deserves credit for posting solid career numbers in both targeted passer rating (121) and total TDs per game (0.71). He's an early candidate for some designed downfield shot plays, even if an early-season full-time starting role seems unlikely.
• Dolphins WR Malik Washington: The Northwestern/Virginia product only earned sixth-round draft capital, but that might not stop him from working as the No. 4 WR in this fairly wide-open passing game beyond the obvious big-two options.
• Dolphins WR Odell Beckham Jr.: Sure didn't look overly washed with the Ravens and should start out as the No. 3 WR in Miami. Still, OBJ will be 32 in November and only fetched a one-year, $3 million contract this offseason.
• Falcons WR Rondale Moore: The pint-sized speedster has honestly flashed more as an RB than WR over the years; he never cleared 50 receiving yards in a 2023 game despite operating in a Cardinals offense desperate for anyone to emerge as a viable pass-catcher. Early training camp reports have him working with the backups.
• Browns WR Elijah Moore: There were some fun times back in 2021, but we now essentially have 33 straight games of evidence that we're dealing with a mediocre WR here. Excuse me for not buying into Stefanski's current offseason propaganda when the entire Browns beat wouldn't stop gushing about Moore prior to last season.
• Giants WR Jalin Hyatt: Flashed as a rookie with three games with 75-plus receiving yards, but now isn't guaranteed a spot in three-WR sets depending on the statuses of Malik Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton. Gadgety field-stretching No. 4 WR is probably what we have here.
• Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne: It’s realistic to believe Bourne will be ready for Week 1 considering he got his ACL surgery done in mid-November. The Patriots' 33-million-dollar man deserves credit for earning ESPN’s 14th-highest receiver score last season and could feasibly lead this wide-open passing game in targets.
• Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert: Currently battling another Jalen (Brooks) for the No. 3 WR job in Dallas. Of course, this job only produced 57 targets for Michael Gallup last season; the winning Jalen doesn't figure to finish any better than fourth (at best) on this team in targets.
• Ravens WR Nelson Agholor: Unironically out-scored Rashod Bateman last season in this very offense. While his contract extension (1-year, $3.75 million) pales in comparison to what the former receiver got, Agholor does once again profile as a starter in three-WR sets and remains capable of working as the offense's No. 2 WR during any given week.
• Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer: Showed some promising field-stretching ability as a rookie, although the newfound presence of third-round pick Jalen McMillan immediately threatens Palmer's starting spot in three-WR sets. A similar part-time gadgety-esque role as Hyatt makes sense here.
• Titans WR Tyler Boyd: The 29-year-old veteran profiles as the full-time slot WR in his former OC's offense, but that role only yielded 94, 82 and 98 targets over the past two seasons – don't expect those opportunities to go as far in Tennessee without Joe Burrow under center.
• Saints WR A.T. Perry: Battling NPCs like Bub Means, Cedrick Wilson and Equanimeous St. Brown for a starting spot in three-WR sets. Of course, this offense profiles as two-TE friendly and should continue to mostly feature Chris Olave and (to a lesser extent) Rashid Shaheed above all else in the passing game.
• Broncos WR Josh Reynolds: Signed a two-year, $9 million contract that includes $4.25 million guaranteed. He's the sort of progress-stopping veteran who is unlikely to provide much fantasy value in his own right but remains capable of keeping the team's younger talents on the sideline.

Tier 10: Why are they even in this article? Good question (17)

Then again, each has at least (more like exactly) one reason why we should at least somewhat care about them ahead of 2024…

• Eagles WR Parris Campbell: Frontrunner for WR3 duties in Philly; too bad that role only produced 60 combined targets between Quez Watkins, Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones in 2023.
• Cardinals WR Zay Jones: Tentatively expected to be the No. 4 WR in Arizona; Jones was pretty brutal for the Jaguars in 2023 and is likely an injury away from even somewhat being on the fantasy radar.
• Chargers WR D.J. Chark: Early camp reports indicate a starting spot in three-WR sets could be on the horizon, but that's not guaranteed, and even then we're talking about a complementary option inside what is expected to be a run-first attack.
• Raiders WR Tre Tucker: Frontrunner for No. 3 WR duties inside of an offense expected to embrace two-TE formations more than just about anyone.
• Browns WR Cedric Tillman: Could fill out three-WR sets depending on if the Browns want Jerry Jeudy to primarily work out of the slot or on the outside. Even then, there's not much reason for excitement after Tillman failed to surpass 55 yards in a single game as a rookie.
• Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas: The artist known as Yoshi is competing with Jermaine Burton for the last spot in three-WR sets, but it seems more likely than not a committee or sorts eventually emerges.
• Vikings WR Brandon Powell: Looks like the third WR alongside Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison inside of this potentially meh Vikings passing game, although the diminutive size (5-foot-8, 181 pounds) could prevent a true full-time role from ever really emerging.
• Texans WR Noah Brown: Racked up three top-15 half-PPR finishes last season when thrust into the starting lineup; too bad Brown is at least one injury away from getting that sort of opportunity again in 2024.
• Texans WR John Metchie: The former second-round pick joins Brown as guys who would be featured in waiver wire articles should one of the Texans' big-three WRs get injured, but until then there's not much to be overly excited about here.
• Steelers WR Van Jefferson: It remains to be seen who wins the No. 2 WR job inside this expected run-first Steelers attack, but Jefferson is a candidate and does have an 800-yard season to his name back in 2021.
• Broncos WR Tim Patrick: Coming off back-to-back season-ending leg injuries and turns 31 in November. Maybe Patrick is still good enough to earn a starting spot in three-WR sets, but even then the ceiling is low in this Bo Nix-led passing "attack."
• Packers WR Bo Melton: Flashed with 4-44-0, 6-105-1 and 5-62-0 receiving lines during the Packers' final three regular season games of 2023, but is probably two injuries away from obtaining a full-time job in this loaded WR room.
• Colts WR Alec Pierce: ESPN’s 95th-ranked WR from 2023 has done a little too much time busting than booming during his short career. It seems like a matter of when, not if, second-round rookie A.D. Mitchell takes his starting job.
• Titans WR Treylon Burks: The former first-round pick presently seems to be on the outside looking in when it comes to earning a starting spot in three-WR sets inside this far-from-proven passing game. An eventual fresh start makes sense for the 24-year-old talent.
• Bills WR Mack Hollins: Doesn't trust cats, but might just have himself a starting spot on the outside depending on how slow the Bills want to bring along rookie Keon Coleman. Still, even then a rotation with Chase Claypool and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling would make sense.
• Bills WR Chase Claypool: Scored 13 TDs in 17 games as a rookie, but now suddenly seems to be looking at one of his last chances to hang on to an NFL roster spot. It remains to be seen if the former second-round pick will even make the Bills roster.
• 49ers WR Jauan Jennings: The highlight mixtape of Jennings’ best blocks is awesome, and he was unironically the Super Bowl MVP frontrunner after three-plus quarters of action thanks to making one helluva TD pass and also hauling in a short score. Of course, this crowded 49ers passing game always seems to have better places to go with the football.

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