Our fantasy football wide receiver breakout series enters its final phase: identifying players with the most potential entering Year 4 or later. For a complete breakdown of my methodology behind evaluating breakout candidates, you can check out my article here.

You can also find my early-breakout article focusing on Year 2 and 3 players here, but for now, here is a quick summary of points to remember when it comes to identifying late breakouts.

Year 4 marks the territory where context begins to play a more significant role in WR1 breakouts. Here is what you need to know about WR1 breakouts from players after Year 3:

• 14 of 17 (82%) had a WR2 or WR3 finish (often multiple)
• 9 of 17 (53%) experienced significant offensive changes in the breakout year
• 3 of 17 (18%) experienced substantial offensive changes in the year before the breakout

We see similar trends with WR2 breakouts, stalling in Year 4 before expanding in Year 5, including a decent amount from former low-end finishers like WR6 and WR7+ performers.

Late WR Breakout Candidates (Years 4 to 7)

We have an interesting situation shaping up in 2025 for late breakout candidates. Historically, Year 4 has represented a stallout in new WR1 and WR2 emergences before an uptick in Years 5 and 6 when player situation change rates increase.

However, we have three strong WR2 performers in Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams. Plus, we have George Pickens changing teams, which makes him highly intriguing.

Additionally, we have two strong Year 5 candidates, but their situations are not changing—at least not on the surface.

Note: Consensus average draft position (ADP) is across ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, RTSports, and Underdog.

For a quick reference guide for WR1, WR2, and WR3 points per game since 2011, see below:

WR1: 16+ PPG
WR2: 13.5 to 15.9
WR3: 11.5 to 13.4

Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins

• Year: 5
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR31, Round 6

• Targets: 25%, 21%, 23%, 17% (WR2-worthy) 
• TPRR: 24%, 21%, 26%, 17% (WR2-worthy)
• Air Yards: 23%, 27%, 30%, 24% (WR3-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.75, 2.59, 2.63, 1.53 (WR2-worhy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 78.5, 85.0, 90.9, 71.5 (WR1-worthy)

Waddle's underlyings are WR1-worthy based on 2023 and 2024, and there is potential for a change in team environment that could open the door to a WR1 fantasy finish.

• Tagovailoa plays the majority of games.
• The departure of Jonnu Smith helps (assuming Darren Waller is not in a full-time role).
• Tyreek Hill hits the age cliff.

Davante Adams was a Year 5 WR1 breakout with Aaron Rodgers returning to health after only playing seven games the season before. That same season, Jordy Nelson left, and Randall Cobb played only nine games.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 11.2 (WR4)
• Median: 14.3 (WR2)
• Ceiling: 19.4 (WR1)

Historical hit rates:

Both of the WR1 hits had two WR2 finishes already on their resume.

• WR1: 10% (2 of 21) → Davante Adams, Tee Higgins
• WR2: 24% (5 of 21) → all established WR2s (Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, Jerry Jeudy)

Final Verdict: Waddle is a borderline WR1 talent in an offense where a lot could change, making him one of my favorite late breakout targets. If it doesn't hit, we have a great shot at a WR2-level finish at a WR3 price tag. Win-win.

George Pickens | Cowboys

• Year: 4
• Previous high: WR3
• Consensus ADP: WR29, Round 6

Pickens has averaged 9.6 (WR5), 12.2 (WR3), and 12.4 (WR3) points in his first three seasons. While he has yet to break into the WR2 category, his underlying data profile suggests he could blossom into more.

• Targets: 16%, 23%, 26% (WR1-worthy)
• TPRR: 14%, 20%, 23% (WR2-worthy)
• Man TPRR: 16%, 26%, 30% (WR1-worthy)
• Air Yards: 33%, 39%, 44% (WR1-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.38, 2.11, 2.06 (WR2-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 69.3, 76.4, 78.0 (WR2-worthy)

If you are counting, Pickens profiles more like a WR2 in three categories and a WR1 in three. So, we have a talented Year 4 player, getting a massive change in scenery. Arthur Smith's teams have an average dropback rate of 53% over the last three years versus 62% for Brian Schottenheimer (under Mike McCarthy). I have the Cowboys projected for 66 more dropbacks than the Steelers this year—the equivalent of two extra games' worth of pass attempts.

Yes, CeeDee Lamb will still operate as the alpha in Dallas, but he and Pickens complement each other perfectly. Expect Pickens to work the boundary and thrive in the red zone while Lamb works the underneath and intermediate ranges of the field from the slot. Dak Prescott will be the best QB Pickens has ever played with. In Prescott's last two healthy years, he averaged 272 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per contest.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 10.5 (WR4)
• Median: 13.5 (WR2)
• Ceiling: 18.4 (WR1)

Going back to 2011, post-third-year breakouts have often (53%) been accompanied by a significant offensive environment change. Pickens is in a great spot.

Final Verdict: Pickens is a strong bet to up his game to a WR2 level, and if the Cowboys' passing game returns to form, a WR1 outcome isn't out of reach given the ascending talent profile. Pickens is a SMASH breakout target in Round 6 of drafts.

Garrett Wilson | Jets

• Year: 4
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR16, Round 3

Wilson has delivered 12.8 (WR3), 12.8 (WR3), and 14.9 (WR2) finishes over his first three seasons. His first two seasons were hampered by atrocious quarterback play by Zach Wilson. Last year, he finally got a capable passer in Aaron Rodgers, and appeared on his way to a WR1 breakout campaign before a trade for Davante Adams.

Before Adams' arrival, Wilson had an 87 Utilization Score (WR1-worthy), averaging 16.7 points (WR1). The man had a booming 31% target share.

Now Adams moves on, but so does Rodgers. Justin Fields, Wilson's old college teammate, takes over the starting role, but has averaged a DEFCON 1-level 180 yards passing in games with at least 90% of the snaps. While offensive scoring doesn't impact WRs as much as RBs, passing yards per game is a significant factor—and Wilson has fallen victim to it before.

Since 2011, fantasy football has not been kind to WRs on low-yardage passing offenses (minimum 400 routes).

• Less than 175 per game: 0% WR1 finishes, 0% WR2s; 12% WR3s
• 175 to 200 per game: 2% WR1 finishes; 14% WR2s; 19% WR3s
• 200 to 225 per game: 5% WR1 finishes; 15% WR2s; 18% WR3s

Zach Wilson averaged 200 and 216 in his games with over 90% of the snaps in 2022 and 2023. Garrett Wilson delivered 9.1 PPG (23% target share) and 14.9 (34% target share) in those games.

Yes, DJ Moore had a WR1 season with Fields. Outliers happen. However, we've seen Wilson dominate target share with another bad passer and still didn't get a WR1 finish.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 10.1 (WR4)
• Median: 13.0 (WR3)
• Ceiling: 17.9 (WR1)

I am still in the camp that Garrett Wilson is good at football. He is an absolute target magnet, but even with an improved passer in 2024, he was unable to secure his first 2.00-plus YPRR season. So, there are a few flags here.

Historical hit rates:

• WR1: 10% (3 of 29)
• WR2: 31% (9 of 29)
• WR3: 14% (4 of 29)

There is a reason we see breakouts stall in Year 4, players stuck in bad situations hit an environment-induced ceiling.

Final Verdict: Expect Wilson to dominate the Jets' passing attack, but a WR1 breakout will require a much-improved version of Fields or TD luck (see ceiling projection). He projects more like the WR3 we saw in 2022 and 2023.

Jameson Williams | Lions

• Year: 4
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR27, Round 6

Williams has averaged 2.6, 6.7, and 13.8 (WR2) points per game over his first three seasons. However, last year is the only one we can count. He only played six games as a rookie due to injury and then ended up in the doghouse (51% routes) after a suspension in Year 2.

In his first opportunity as a starter, Williams came through with a WR2-worthy finish in a crowded Lions offense. Even after Sam LaPorta's return to health and a full-time role in Week 12, Williams kept the party going with 14.4 points per game.

• Targets: 18% (WR4-worthy)
• TPRR: 18% (WR5-worthy)
• Man TPRR: 15% (WR7+)
• Air Yards: 30% (WR2-worthy)
• YPRR: 2.10 (WR2-worthy) 
• PFF Receiving Grade: 76.5 (WR2-worthy)

Outside of the departure of Ben Johnson, the Lions' attack remains stable in the weapons department. Williams could take a step forward, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is a high-end target earner alongside a good earner in LaPorta.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 9.4 (WR5)
• Median: 12.3 (WR3)
• Ceiling: 18.0 (WR1)

There is some boom-bust to Williams' profile. On the boom side, he could be ready to break out and earn a larger role, or could just go nuclear on efficiency. On the bust side, the Lions' offense is crowded, and if passing touchdown regression hits and Williams is target-landlocked by the Sun God and LaPorta, things could get dicey.

Historical hit rates: See Wilson.

Final Verdict: Williams' game-breaking ability and breakout in his first year with playing time are positives. If he does gain volume, it could pay huge dividends. If not, he still has the big-play ability in a quality offense to garner a WR3 finish. If he busts, you can live with it in Round 6.

DeVonta Smith | Eagles

• Year: 5
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR25, Round 5

After a WR4 start to his career, Smith has delivered three consecutive WR2 seasons: 10.9 (WR4), 15.1 (WR2), 14.4 (WR2), 15.3 (WR2). His underlying data points align with his fantasy production as a WR2.

• Targets: 23%, 27%, 23%, 28% (WR1-worthy)
• TPRR: 20%, 22%, 19%, 21% (WR3-worthy)
• Air Yards: 39%, 31%, 33%, 33% (WR2-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.77, 1.98, 1.79, 2.11 (WR2-worthy)
• PFF Rec Grade: 76.8, 82.0, 74.4, 84.4 (WR1-worthy)

Smith is probably a WR1 in an offense without A.J. Brown that throws the ball more. The Eagles will almost certainly throw the ball more this year after a league-low 48% dropback rate last season. That number is rarely repeated, even with teams led by dual-threat quarterbacks. Still, just because the Eagles project to throw more this season doesn't mean they will be pass-heavy. They will likely remain one of the more run-centric teams.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 11.3 (WR4)
• Median: 14.5 (WR2)
• Ceiling: 19.1 (WR1)

Historical hit rates: See Waddle.

Final Verdict: Smith has the talent to spike a WR1 breakout season, with more passing volume, he could get there on efficiency or TDs. However, his most likely path is via a teammate missing time due to injury.

Chris Olave | Saints

• Year: 4
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR33, Round 7

Olave has averaged 13.3 (WR3), 14.3 (WR2), and 9.8 (WR5) points over his first three seasons. His third year also looks better when excluding Weeks 6 and 9, when he left with an injury. He delivered 14.4 (WR2) per game when healthy.

• Targets: 26%, 26%, 19% (29% healthy) (WR1-worthy)
• TPRR: 26%, 25%, 23% (WR1-worthy)
• Man TPRR: 27%, 28%, 23% (WR2-worthy)
• Air Yards: 42%, 40%, 24% (33% healthy) (WR1-worthy)
• YPRR: 2.42, 2.07, 2.13 (WR2-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 82.9, 82.9, 83.0 (WR1- worthy)

His ESPN Open Scores of 82 (7th), 75 (14th), and 80 (12th) are consistently among the league leaders as well. This is a baller, y'all.

Olave does get a shakeup in his offensive environment this year. First, Kellen Moore takes over as the head coach and play-caller. Second, Tyler Shough replaces Derek Carr. Third, Taysom Hill's late-season knee injury could reduce the gimmick plays in the red zone.

While the target consolidation should come down to Olave and Rashid Shaheed, it's hard to know what we will get out of Shough as a rookie. Historically, quarterbacks who played seven years of college football haven't been very good. He had some injuries along the way that extended his stay and some of the film gurus like what they see in Shough, but we should assume this isn't going to be an outstanding passing attack until proven wrong.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 10.1 (WR4)
• Median: 12.9 (WR3)
• Ceiling: 17.7 (WR1)

Olave offers almost the same range of outcomes as Garrett Wilson in our model, based on the same concoction: talented player + bad passing projections. Olave has also suffered four concussions in three years, which could have drafters a little spooked.

Historical hit rates: See Wilson.

We could see Olave fall victim to the Year 4 stallout; the underlying talent profile gives him life.

Final Verdict: Olave has the talent, but the other ingredients for a Year 4 breakout are challenging. However, he is a similar bet to Wilson with a four-round discount, making him a player I am targeting often in drafts.

Jauan Jennings | 49ers

• Year: 6
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR41, Round 8

Jennings exploded onto fantasy radars with 46.5 points in Week 3; however, what has me most excited about his profile is what he did after the Brandon Aiyuk injury. From Week 10 to 18, he averaged 14.1 points with a 28% target share (WR1-worthy).

While Jennings backed those numbers up with a 2.26 YPRR (WR1-worthy) and an 83.7 PFF Receiving Grade (WR1-worthy), my first instinct was to think this was a fluke. However, after further research, my views on Jennings have adapted.

Jennings fits the bill for a late-career WR2 breakout. Last year, the dynamics of the 49ers' offense changed dramatically with Christian McCaffrey out, Deebo Samuel underperforming, and Aiyuk injured. That opened up the door for a player the 49ers decided to keep around with a new contract in May of 2024.

Now, Samuel is on the Commanders, Aiyuk could miss part of the season, and Ricky Pearsall is largely unproven. Plus, he gets to play with one of the great schemers of the last decade in Kyle Shanahan.

Just to make sure I wasn't crazy, I decided to take a look at how all the Year 5 breakouts fared the following season.

Most of those players did well the following year. And most had an offensive environment change during the breakout.

• Emmanuel Sanders (2014): Signed with the Broncos to ball with Peyton Manning.
• Golden Tate (2014): Signed with the Lions and partnered with Matthew Stafford.
• Doug Baldwin (2015): Tate (24% target share) left the year before.
• Adam Thielen (2018): The Vikings upgraded from Keenum to Cousins.
• Robert Woods: (2018): Signed with the Rams the season before to post his first WR2 season, moved to WR1 status in his second year with the team.
• Will Fuller V (2020): The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins (29% target share) to the Cardinals.
• Mike Williams (2021): Lowest aDOT season with new OC Joe Lombardi.
• Christian Kirk (2022): Signed with the Jaguars.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 8.9 (WR5)
• Median: 11.5 (WR3)
• Ceiling: 15.8 (WR2)

Historical hit rates:

• WR1: 20% (5 of 25)
• WR2: 20% (5 of 25)

The closest comp to Jennings is Thielen, who hung around with the Vikings before notching a WR2 season, followed by a WR1 breakout when Kirk Cousins arrived. Like Thielen, Jennings has WR1 underpinnings with his YPRR and PFF Receiving Grade.

Final Verdict: Jennings is a great WR1 breakout target in Round 8 of drafts. Things might get crowded when Aiyuk returns, but Jennings could lock down his playing time with a great start.

Rashid Shaheed | Saints

• Year: 4
• Previous high: WR4
• Consensus ADP: WR54, Round 11

Shaheed demonstrated potential with a 1.95 YPRR over his first two seasons, which he parlayed into more playing time in 2024. Before his season-ending meniscus injury in Week 6, the former undrafted receiver averaged 14.7 points (WR2) with a 27% target share.

The year before, he garnered 10.1 (WR4) points per game, which is how I slotted his hit rate research, but with a slight lean toward WR3 territory.

The Saints' passing attack under Kellen Moore should concentrate around Olave, Shaheed, and Kamara. As mentioned in the Olave section, Tyler Shough is a major question mark at quarterback.

The team could turn to Shaheed as more than just a downfield threat. He has the playmaking ability to work more around the line of scrimmage. With Olave working opposite in the intermediate and deep ranges of the field, it could be a potent combination that gives the Saints offense a chance to outperform expectations if Shough is competent.

Ceiling-floor projections:

• Floor: 9.2 (WR5)
• Median: 11.9 (WR3)
• Ceiling: 17.1 (WR1)

Shaheed's availability to contribute in the run game and hit big plays downfield pushes his ceiling into the WR1 range.

Historical hit rates:

• WR1: 11% (2 of 19)
• WR2: 30% (3 of 10)

Final Verdict: The Saints' offense could be a real drag in 2025, but they have weapons if Shough can come through. Shaheed's talent profile and projections alone make him worth a click in Round 11, where we don't need great breakout odds.

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