Chris Allen analyzes the importance of aDOT for pass catchers to the success for the 2025 fantasy football season.

I can’t stand running.

Well, let me take that back. Mentally, I actually enjoy it. The feeling of competing either against myself or other people makes training more fun. Plus, it gives me an excuse to travel and catch up with friends. Physically, my hips, calves, knees, and left Achilles tendon would beg to differ. But all I need to do is get past those first few steps.

The warmup period is where the uncertainty lives. I question why I even started jogging in the first place. Then, the training takes over. My muscles remind me that we’ve done this before. Adding a third advanced stat to our repertoire is no different. Most of them build off of basic measurements, and we’ve touched on average depth of target before. Now, let’s take a closer look at it and break down its utility for fantasy football.

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The Definition

“Average depth of target (aDOT) is the typical target distance for a receiver on a pass attempt.”

How far a receiver has to run before the ball gets to them is another way to look at it. In some ways, it sounds simple and complicated at the same time. A player goes downfield, and the QB throws a pass in their direction. The average gap from the passer to the pass catcher is aDOT. One of my favorite plays from ’24 gives us an easy example.

For the first 25 minutes of the season, Alec Pierce was sporting an aDOT of 60 yards. Until the end of the second quarter, the former Bearcat’s only target was Anthony Richardson’s cannon shot for a TD during the prior frame. Sixty yards divided by one target. Easy math! 

Now, extend this idea across a full game. Better yet, multiple contests. Shoot, let’s go the whole season. I’ve turned up the difficulty. The calculations seemingly become harder. And, just like my jogging analogy, skepticism grows with complexity. Don’t worry, though. We’ve trained for this.

Point: watching Malik Nabers operate is fun. Counterpoint: seeing Drew Lock spin it (complimentary) is more fun.

Anyway, Nabers’ ability to secure the most looks of any receiver isn’t hard to follow. His varying route depths are. He hauled in a contested catch over CB Kenny Moore down the right sideline in the second quarter. Later, he took a screen to the house. Usually, I’d say there’s no way we could track all of those different lengths (no, I wouldn’t, but bear with me because we’re getting to the reveal). However, we do have a measure for the gap when the ball goes from one person to another.

They’re called air yards.

Throughout a game or season, receivers accrue air yards as they continue to showcase their talent on the field. And remember, a pass catcher earns their targets. Typically, a QB has multiple options on each passing concept. The decision to throw to a specific player signals intent. Accordingly, we had the two components required to calculate aDOT in front of us all along: air yards and targets.

Yet again, we’ve demystified an advanced stat. By stacking up two basic metrics, we’ve got something else to help us characterize receivers. Although, I’ll admit there’s not much thought required to conclude Nabers and Pierce play the position differently. A more impactful way to gauge the significance of aDOT comes when looking at pass catchers with seemingly similar roles within an offense.

Why Does aDOT Matter?

I’m going to try something new. I’ll start by making a (wrong) statement.

“A higher aDOT means you score more fantasy points.”

It’s essentially the more-is-better argument, but I’m applying it to our new stat. The logic generally works for air yards. Of course, the assumption is the receiver is converting those air yards to actual receiving yards. Similarly, more targets are a boon to anyone. So, if increasing either basic stat can lead to more fantasy points, a bump up in a metric blending the two should also be good.

I realize I use correlation charts often, but they’re about as quick a process as you can find to quantify what matters. Unfortunately, a nearly nonexistent correlation coefficient (R2 = 7E-5) points us in the opposite direction. And yet, a lack of connection between aDOT and fantasy points jibes with conventional wisdom.

Josh Downs averaged more yards per game than any Colts’ receiver in 2024. Plus, the sophomore was the only IND WR with a YPRR over 2.0. But critically, he put up fantasy points when he was on the field. Downs scored more PPR PPG (13.1) than Tyreek Hill (12.8). So, we should be able to get behind the idea of a player’s aDOT and how they score fantasy points as separate traits. But even if there isn’t a direct link, aDOT still plays a role in evaluating receivers. I’ll explain.

You can come up with about as many categories for wide receivers as Bubba did for methods for preparing shrimp. With enough context (types of routes, number of targets, typical pre-snap alignment), the possibilities are endless. But aDOT at least starts us down the path of distinguishing one from another. 

I chose Courtland Sutton, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown here purposefully. All three are WR1s for their respective squads. However, their separate approaches to the role couldn’t be more stark. 

Sutton has played the “prototypical X-receiver” position since joining the Broncos in 2018. At an 83.4% snap rate out wide, he’s ceded slot snaps to nearly every other Denver receiver. Meanwhile, Chase lines up everywhere. His interior alignment spiked to 33.6% in ’24 while en route to the Triple Crown award. And there’s no question as to where you’ll find Amon-Ra St. Brown before the ball gets to Jared Goff’s hands.

In any case, we’ve seen their highlights to understand where they win on the field. But at the same time, I can quickly compare each receiver by looking at three numbers.

• Sutton (2024 aDOT): 13.2
• Chase: 8.7
• St. Brown: 7.7

One has to run farther than the other two. I hope Sutton likes cardio workouts. Still, while aDOT and fantasy points aren’t strongly correlated, there is an aspect of fantasy that links to the advanced stat.

Shorter passes are generally easier to catch than deeper passes. Who knew?

More importantly, we can glean the relevance of aDOT from yet another basic concept. How far a receiver has to run to earn a target helps identify what they need to succeed outside of their intrinsic skillset. Sutton needs a passer willing to throw moonballs in his direction. Chase and St. Brown have to have high-end agility and speed to pick up yards after their short-area catches. With an understanding of offensive situations, we can start to set expectations for any receiver using their aDOT.

How Can You Use aDOT?

On a small scale, we can use aDOT as a proxy for a receiver’s skills as a route runner.

For now, let’s remove the name from the routes and focus on the distances (e.g., three-step routes, 8-10 yards, etc.). Ideally, our pass catcher would have multiple concepts at their disposal. They could run a slant, catch a pass on a comeback, and then hit a defender with the coup de grace on a fade for a touchdown. Physically, we see art in motion.

The jabs, stutter steps, or outright speed to separate change with each play. But they all (should) cause a reaction when rewatching. However, mathematically, each route is just a number. Davante Adams picked up 18 air yards on his clip. Stefon Diggs just needed seven. Ultimately, the distribution of depths averages out to a single number. And history gives us an indication of what to look for in top WRs.

The aDOT of a top-36 WR has most commonly been between 7 and 13 yards over the last five seasons. It’s not to say pass catchers outside of the range can’t become WR3s or better. Terry McLaurin just showed us the way last season. But, depending on their style, their on-field deployment necessitates more than their ability to haul in everything that comes their way. I’ll use Carolina’s newest offensive weapon as an example.

I agree with Thor Nystrom on lauding the Panthers for adding Tetairoa McMillan to their receiving corps. McMillan not only looks the part of a WR1 at 6-foot-4, 219 pounds, but has the collegiate production to back up the notion. However, any delay in his ascension up the fantasy ranks in Year 1 might not be solely due to adjusting to the speed of the NFL.

Despite Bryce Young’s improvements down the stretch, one of his limitations as a passer shows up where McMillan will most likely operate. Young’s 49.0% completion rate to the intermediate boundary ranked 21st among active starters after Week 8. His efficiency marks were also below average. Simply put, we should closely follow the development of Young’s rapport with McMillan this offseason. Without an indication the rookie will play as the Z opposite Xavier Legette or work inside ahead of Jalen Coker or Adam Thielen, we might see a slow start for McMillan in 2025. 

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