Alright, enough messing around. It's time to share "my guys" for the 2025 season. 

To help me narrow the pool, I'm avoiding any of the Top 100 players. Yes, I love Brock Bowers as much as the next guy (no, I'm not scared about Michael Mayer), but I don't need to spill any more ink on players everyone agrees are going to smash in 2025.

1. True sleepers going after pick 100 in essentially every format
2. Players I actually have skin in the game with, which we can check via the Best Ball Hub

Pete Overzet's My Guys For Fantasy Football 2025

RB Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars

Check the receipts? He's my most drafted player across 279 teams. 21.1% exposure/$1,293 in entry fees.

Every single year we get a backfield or two that feels so ambiguous that it makes drafters want to ignore it altogether.

Of course, that is a huge mistake. These ambiguous backfields are gifts from the fantasy gods. With clarity, comes steep prices. Muddled situations, however, allow us to place our bets on the most talented RB at bargain-bin prices.

That's exactly what happened with the Miami Dolphins backfield in 2023 when both De’Von Achane (a rookie at the time) and Raheem Mostert were undervalued due to ambiguity (Jeff Wilson Jr. was also in the mix) and then both Achane and Mostert smashed their ADPs.

Now we have a similar setup in Jacksonville with three legit contenders–Tuten, Travis Etienne, and Tank Bigsby. With the tides seemingly changing by the week, drafters are loath to select any of them in the Top 100 picks. 

But with Liam Cohen bringing his talents over from Tampa Bay, I strongly believe that there will be a massive fantasy winner from the Jags backfield in 2025 and I think that winner will ultimately be the fourth-round rookie.

Tuten is the 43rd-best RB prospect since 2017 in Dwain's Super Model and pairs both insane athleticism (93 speed score rating) with rock solid college production (80 production rating). After the Combine, Fantasy Life's Thor Nystrom comped Tuten to Isiah Pacheco and noted:

"The explosion we saw in Indianapolis is evident on his film. Tuten is a home run hitter who finished No. 8 in the FBS in breakaway yards last fall. Of the 20 backs ranked in this column, Tuten was No. 5 in elusive rating last season."

The fact that you can routinely get Tuten in Rounds 10 and 11—and even later in home league drafts—is absurd to me.

He might get off to a slow start while the team dicks around with Bigsby, but this will be Tuten's backfield by the end of the year. 

TLDR: Draft 2025's Bucky Irving and thank me later.

WR Luther Burden | Bears

Check the receipts? He's my most drafted WR across 279 teams. 17.9% exposure/$725 in entry fees.

Are you noticing a pattern here? I love me some undervalued rookies who I think could break fantasy and Burden certainly fits the bill.

Let's quickly discuss why he's so cheap (and then I'll explain why I think that's wrong):

• He fell in the NFL Draft process and ended up a Round 2 selection instead of Round 1
• He missed the majority of the offseason program with a hamstring injury
• He's been playing behind Olamide Zaccheaus in the preseason

Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

It's no surprise that these factors have caused Burden to tumble down draft boards as managers flock to "safer" options.

Now let's do some of the pros and why I think he's being slept on:

• In the pre-draft version of the Super Model that excludes draft capital, he graded out near the top of the class. His best target share season (34%) tied Tetairoa McMillan.
• This new Bears coaching staff hand-picked him (and Colston Loveland) despite having DJ Moore and Rome Odunze on the roster.
• The YAC upside is through the roof. As Ian noted here, "Malik Nabers is the only other SEC WR to force at least 30 missed tackles on receptions in a single season over the past five years. Burden's 0.49 missed tackle forced rate is the second-highest mark of any Power 5 WR of the last decade."

When you add all of this up (and square it with the price), this feels like an opportunity that isn't supposed to happen anymore. We just aren't supposed to be able to draft WRs with Burden's pedigree on ascending offenses at these costs. 

We are paying Top 100 prices for guys like Matthew Golden and Jayden Higgins while Burden routinely falls to the 130s?

It reminds me of when Garrett Wilson was a 12th-round pick as a rookie.

Similar to Tuten, it might take some time for him to ascend (and he's never going to project well at the start), but getting to sidestep the true bust risk of Odunze and re-roll it with Burden makes him a must click for me in every draft.

Panthers QB Bryce Young

Check the receipts? He's my 4th-most drafted QB across 279 teams. 10.8% exposure/$624 in entry fees. I NEED MORE!...although my QB exposures are extremely flat:

OK, how about we close out with a non-rookie?

My two favorite late-round QBs are Young and Cam Ward, but I'm going to give a slight nod to the veteran who finished last season scorching hot and then got a massive weapon added to his arsenal in McMillan.

I feel like optics-wise Young is still struggling to rehab his image after a truly atrocious start to his career, but he was genuinely great to close out the season last year. 

Check out his stat lines after Carolina's bye last year: 

• Week 12: 21-263-1 (rush: 3-20-0) QB14
• Week 13: 26-298-1 (rush: 3-17-1) QB 8
• Week 14: 19-191-1 (rush: 7-29-0) QB 20
• Week 15: 19-219-1 (rush: 3-12-1) QB 18
• Week 16: 17-158-2 (rush: 5-68-1) QB 2
• Week 17: 15-203-2 (rush: 2-8-0) QB 19
• Week 18: 25-251-3 (rush: 5-24-2) QB 1

 Your eyes do not deceive you. He was the QB8 over the course of that stretch last year:

And he's now going as the QB22 in drafts? It doesn't make sense to me. 

Two other things I love about betting on the Bryce Breakout (should I trademark that?):

1. He's super easy to stack. Outside of T-Mac, all of his other pass catchers go after pick 150. I love pairing him with WR Jalen Coker and TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, specifically. 
2. The NFC South is the most fantasy-friendly division in the entire league. Bad defenses, and dome/warm-weather games aplenty. It's the perfect snowglobe for fantasy points.

I'll still take C.J. Stroud straight up, but don't be surprised when the consensus is the Panthers didn't mess up their choice at No. 1 in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

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