Week 1. It happened.

What we saw on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday from the players, the play callers, the offenses, the defenses: Is it representative of what we'll see in the future? Or was it a fluke?

Time (and hopefully this piece) will tell.

We're onto the Week 2 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites.

In this piece I highlight some QBs I expect to perform better than they usually do. Basically, these are guys I'm upgrading this week.

What causes me to upgrade a guy? 

Usually some combination of these factors.

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchup (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectation (again, maybe aided by injury)
   

Some notes:

Defensive matchups: Since the season is just one week old, I'll still rely primarily on prior defensive data.

Rankings, Projections & Newsletter: I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which is where any updated opinions will manifest after article submission. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
   

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 2 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).

• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers (to be released)
• Tight Ends (to be released)
   

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Week 2 Quarterback Rankings

See below for my top-12 QBs for Week 2 as things stand at the time of publishing. Read on for my favorite QBs for the week and others I am upgrading. Find my full Week 2 fantasy football rankings here.

Freedman's Favorite QBs For Week 2

Joe Burrow (Bengals) vs. Jaguars

Under HC Zac Taylor, the Bengals always seem to start slow, and that trend held true in Week 1 as Joe Burrow passed for a measly 113 yards and one TD as the team eked out a 17-16 win over the Browns.

But with Week 1 out of the way, I expect Burrow to bounce back on Sunday against the Jaguars, who were terrible last year.

• No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.5)
• No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.241, per RBs Don't Matter)
• No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (35.0%, per FTN)
   

The Jags held the Panthers to 10 points in Week 1, but, you know, it's the Panthers, and allowing them to score 10 points might be a bad thing.

I'm still skeptical about the Jags defense and new DC Anthony Campanile, who now has one game of NFL play-calling experience.

The betting data for Burrow is favorable: For his career, Burrow outside of division is an assassin-like 34-16-1 ATS (29.7% ROI, per Action Network), and the Bengals are No. 2 in implied team total (26.5, per our Fantasy Life Odds Page).

As -3.5 favorites, the Bengals are a five-star bet this week (per our Fantasy Life Game Model).

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) vs. Patriots

Why are you walking away from me? Will you at least hear me out?

Sure … the Dolphins could be without RT Austin Jackson (toe), RG James Daniels (pectoral), and TE Darren Waller (hip).

Then again, the Dolphins OL is so bad that the dropoff to OT Larry Borom and C/G Daniel Brunskill is negligible … and Waller hasn't played an NFL snap since the 2023 season, so what are the Dolphins missing really?

And the Pats could be without CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring), who missed Week 1 after not practicing at all. That's a real injury that matters.

There's no pretending that Tagovailoa wasn't dreadful in Week 1 (114 yards and one TD passing, two INTs).

But let's also not act as if the Pats are elite: Last week, as home favorites, they allowed QB Geno Smith—on a new team, in a new offense, with new OC Chip Kelly—to pass for 362 yards.

And last year the Pats were No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.183).

This game is at Hard Rock Stadium, where the Dolphins have one of the league's best home-field advantages (per NFElo). At home, Tagovailoa for his career is 21-12 ATS (21.6% ROI).

And against the Pats … he's 7-0 ATS (91.2% ROI).

In his 3+ seasons with HC Mike McDaniel, Tagovailoa has averaged 265.5 yards passing per game. In 2023, he led the league with 4,624 yards passing. In 2024, he led the league with a 72.9% completion rate.

The Dolphins have the potential to dominate the Pats in Week 2.

The Dropback

Justin Fields (Jets) vs. Bills: Fields has seen a boost in our early Week 2 fantasy rankings thanks to his magnificent Week 1 performance (29.5 fantasy points, No. 2 QB per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix). His running usage is elite (12-48-2 in Week 1, position-best 27% designed run rate per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The Jets are big +6.5 dogs, but they're at home the second straight week, and the Bills last year were No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.3%).

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Giants: It's not reflected in the raw numbers (188 yards passing, no TDs), but last week Prescott looked great throwing the ball—as a road dog against a tough Eagles defense. Now he faces the Giants, who last year were No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (24.2%). As a divisional home favorite, Prescott is 15-4 ATS (54.7% ROI). 

Jordan Love (Packers) vs. Commanders: Love was efficiently elite in Week 1 (10.4 AY/A), and last year the Commanders were No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.125). Under HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers at home are 34-20 ATS (20.8% ROI).

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) at Bengals: Lawrence wasn't great in his first game with offensive OC Liam Coen (4.9 AY/A), but the Jags still scored 26 points. The Bengals just allowed QB Joe Flacco to pass for 290 yards in Week 1, and last year they were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.2).

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

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