Week 1. It happened.

What we saw on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday from the players, the play callers, the offenses, the defenses: Is it representative of what we'll see in the future? Or was it a fluke?

Time (and hopefully this piece) will tell.

We're onto the Week 2 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites.

Freedman's Favorites for Week 2

In this piece I highlight some RBs I expect to perform better than they usually do. Basically, these are guys I'm upgrading this week.

What causes me to upgrade a guy? 

Usually some combination of these factors.

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchup (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectation (again, maybe aided by injury)

Some notes:

Defensive matchups: Since the season is just one week old, I'll still rely primarily on prior defensive data.

Rankings, Projections & Newsletter: I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which is where any updated opinions will manifest after article submission. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a longtime profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 2 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).

• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers (to be released)
• Tight Ends (to be released)

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) at Saints

Last week, Christian McCaffrey gave fantasy managers a scare when he popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a calf injury and then didn't practice on Friday.

But he played through his questionable tag on Sunday … and went off with 142 yards on 22 carries, 10 targets, and a blazing 100 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

And he could have a similar (or even greater) workload in Week 2 given all the injuries the 49ers offense is dealing with, especially in the passing game.

• QB Brock Purdy (shoulder, toe): Uncertain
• WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee, PUP): Out
• WR Jauan Jennings (shoulder): Questionable
• WR Jordan Watkins (ankle): Missed Week 1
• WR Jacob Cowing (hamstring, IR): Out
• TE George Kittle (hamstring): Out

And then there's the matchup: Last week, the Saints allowed 146 yards rushing to the Cardinals, and last year they were No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (3.2%, per FTN).

I doubt their run defense will improve markedly this year with new DC Brandon Staley. In his three seasons as Chargers HC, his defense was No. 32 in rush SR (44.2%, per RBs Don't Matter).

The Saints have a slight edge in that they're playing their second straight game at home … but over the past five years they've been No. 2 in worst home-field advantage (-0.75, per NFElo). 

Right now, he's -170 to score a TD this week (at DraftKings, per our Fantasy Life Prop Bet Finder). I think that number should be closer to -250.

This is a full-on smash spot for McCaffrey.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. Giants

I'm skeptical that Javonte Williams is actually good at football.

He was once an exciting player, but the severe knee injury he suffered in 2022 appears to have sapped him of all explosiveness.

• Pre-Injury (2021-22): 4.4 yards per carry | 5.2 yards per target
• Post-Injury (2023-25): 3.6 yards per carry | 4.5 yards per target

For 2+ years now, Williams has had horrifying efficiency—and that was on full display in Week 1 (3.6 yards per carry, 3.3 yards per target).

But he also got 15 carries, three targets and 100% of his team's work inside the 5-yard line and in the two-minute drill.

The result: 64 bearable yards, two beautiful TDs, and a top-3 fantasy finish (per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix).

It's hard to bank on a dude hitting paydirt every week—but this week the Cowboys are sizable home favorites (-6, per our Fantasy Life Odds Page), so Williams has a good chance of once again finding the end zone—and he could see an even bigger workload with a run-friendly game script.

On top of that, there's the matchup: The Giants last year were No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.7).

With QB Dak Prescott, the Cowboys as divisional home favorites are 15-4 ATS (54.7% ROI, per Action Network).

I wish I would've drafted Williams way more this season.

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Bears

Entering the campaign, many analysts and fantasy players expected the Lions backfield to shift toward No. 1 RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

And it did in Week 1 … but not dramatically. No. 2 RB David Montgomery was still plenty involved.

• Gibbs: Nine carries | 10 targets
• Montgomery: 11 carries | four targets

Without former OC Ben Johnson (now the Bears HC), the Lions offense struggled in Week 1, but I expect a rebound in Week 2.

The Bears are on short rest coming off a demoralizing 27-24 MNF loss, and last year they were No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (3.2%).

As big -5.5 home favorites, the Lions should once again gift Montgomery with 12+ opportunities, some of which could come near the goal line.

Montgomery is one of just four players with 1,000 scrimmage yards and 12+ TDs in each of the past two seasons.

His ceiling is capped because of Gibbs, but his floor is solid and high.

The Checkdown

Chase Brown (Bengals) vs. Jaguars: With 21 carries and three targets in Week 1, Brown had RB1-caliber utilization, and in his nine games since taking over for former starter Zack Moss last season in Week 9, he has 981 yards and 7 TDs. The Jags last year were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.4). As -3.5 favorites, the Bengals are a five-star bet this week (per our Fantasy Life Game Model).

James Conner (Cardinals) vs. Panthers: Last year, the Panthers were No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.097), SR (50.9%), and DVOA (14.1%), and yet they retained DC Ejiro Evero. Surprise!—last week they allowed 200 yards rushing to the Jags. With 12 carries and four targets in Week 1, Conner is still locked in as the No. 1 RB for the Cards, and he's getting a boost in our early Week 2 fantasy rankings.

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs. 49ers: There's nothing special about Kamara's Week 1 boxscore (57 yards, one TD on 11 carries, two targets), and he yielded seven carries combined to backups Kendre Miller and Devin Neal—but he also had an elite 81% snap rate. Kamara's still the No. 1 RB in New Orleans, he gets his second home game in a row, and the 49ers last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (21.9).

Travis Etienne (Jaguars) at Bengals: I noted Etienne in this piece last week, and that worked out well (156 yards on 16 carries and 3 targets), so I'm doing it again now. The team just traded away No. 2 RB Tank Bigsby, so this backfield fully belongs to Etienne. It's not ideal that the Jags are +3.5 road dogs, but Etienne should remain involved with his three-down skill set, and the Bengals last year were No. 31 in defensive rush SR (45.2%)

Jordan Mason (Vikings) vs. Falcons: The Vikings are on short rest off MNF, but at least they're coming off an exhilarating 27-24 comeback victory, and the offseason hype for Mason seemed merited in Week 1 (75 yards on 15 carries, 1 target). A -5 home favorite, Mason could benefit from a run-leaning game script throughout the contest. 

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)