This offseason, I dedicated countless hours to researching which data points matter for future fantasy performance. I embark upon this journey every offseason, but I have never felt more prepared for an activity like creating rankings and tiers than in 2024.

That doesn't mean I will get everything right. There will be misses. Football is a cruel game played with an elongated sphere that can bounce in the most unpredictable ways. The critical thing to remember is that we are playing a game of probabilities. 

If we can get more things right than wrong, we have a great chance of beating our opponents. I only know how to do that by following the data.

So far, we have covered RB, WR and TE Tiers. Today, we turn our position to the QBs.

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Tier Methodology

This article will group players into tiers based on the following data criteria.

• Fantasy points per game (PPG)
• Historical production passing and rushing
• Age: Rounded up based on Week 1
• Offensive quality: Supporting cast and scheme
• Player average draft position (ADP): Underdog

Fantasy points per game and historical production

Like other positions, fantasy points per game in the season before remain the best predictor of future fantasy success. However, the correlation is weaker than for any other position — it turns out that playing QB is REALLY difficult.

Age Impact on QBs

No other position enjoys a longer career span than QBs. When comparing a signal caller's best three seasons to different career time frames, we find that prime years span a decade, and many retain pre-prime production into their late thirties. 

It is important to note that these are averages, and not all QBs age the same. For example, there is a reason for the step down from ages 33 to 38.

• Andy Dalton fell to 70% during his age 33 to 35 seasons.
• Jay Cutler fell to 72% at age 34 and was out of the league.
• Matt Ryan hit a cliff at age 36, dipping to 70% and 74% in his final two years.
• Ryan Tannehill fell to 71% and then 48% in his age 34 and 35 campaigns.

Supporting cast and scheme

While QB talent is a primary performance driver, the right supporting cast and scheme can transform mediocre talent into a viable fantasy option, and a bad cast and scheme can limit the upside of good QBs. In just the last few seasons, we have some excellent examples:

• Tua Tagovailoa jumped from 14.7 PPG to 18.5 after the additions of Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel.
• Jared Goff fell from 17.3 PPG with the Rams to 14.8 in his first season with the Lions. Then the team added Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, charging Goff back up to 17.3 and 17.9 campaigns.

We prefer the offenses with at least a mid-level signal caller and a good-to-great surrounding cast. The mid-level part of that sentence is important. There is a level of QB incompetence that can't be overcome.

Of course, the scheme also matters, and some coaches just know how to dial up the cheat codes, which leads to more fantasy points.

Player average draft position (ADP)

Never before have we had such robust market data. Thanks to the explosion of best ball, thousands of real-money drafts have already occurred for 2024. We must leverage this data.

While one of the goals with the tiers is to unearth mispriced players, I want to respect ADP. It represents something much larger and infinitely more intelligent than one person. You should be highly skeptical if you see an analyst (including me) repeatedly pounding the table for a player moving opposite of ADP. 

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In "The Logic of Sports Betting," Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow had this to say:

“Market resistance is a massive red flag that you're missing something, and the best thing you can do is stop betting into the resistance and instead try to figure out what you may have gotten wrong.”

Enough methodology talk. Let's talk tiers.

Tier 1 – Elite dual-threat QBs and that other dude

Jalen Hurts delivered 21.3, 25.6 and 22.4 PPG in his first three seasons as a starter. It doesn't get much better than that. Now, the elite dual-threat QB receives an upgrade in the play-calling department with the arrival of Kellen Moore. 

The Eagles ranked dead last in plays with motion at the snap (26%), while Moore deployed motion the sixth-most (59%). I also expect a slightly stronger lean toward the pass with Moore and have Hurts projected for an uptick to 241 yards per game through the air. One of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith is in for a career year (maybe both).

There isn't another dual-threat QB with a stronger supporting cast, with Brown, Smith, Dallas Goedert and Barkley. That makes Hurts my top option for 2024.

Josh Allen scored 24 PPG or more in four consecutive seasons — the man has been unstoppable. He can throw for massive yardage but win on the ground when game scripts change.

Using our suite of Utilization tools, you can see that last season, the Bills morphed into a run-first offense after Joe Brady took over as the OC in Week 11. Their dropback rate over expected (DBOE) fell from 4% to -3%.

However, that didn't stop Allen, who averaged 27 PPG under Brady thanks to an increased role in the designed run game. The veteran QB went from 10% under Ken Dorsey to 19% under Brady — more in line with Allen's 2022 mark of 18%.

Allen's biggest concern is the loss of Stefon Diggs, which leaves the Bills hoping Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman can make massive early-career contributions. Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir are fine tertiary options, but the offense carries less passing upside without an alpha WR1 to demand the attention of opposing defenses. Before the arrival of Diggs, Allen averaged 18.5 and 18.7 PPG.

Allen remains an elite option in 2024, but the ceiling case for Hurts is more alluring, and their floors are similar with Diggs gone.

Patrick Mahomes posted his worst fantasy season, dipping to 18.8 PPG last year. But let's be honest – that is pretty respectable for an offense running out one of the worst receiving corps in the league for half the season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and Skyy Moore should not be playing meaningful snaps.

With the additions of Xavier Worthy (Round 1 of the NFL Draft) and Marquise Brown, I expect a major bounce-back season from Mahomes, who gave us 25.2, 22.3 and 24.8 PPG from 2020 to 2022. Look for this offense to put more air under the ball again in 2024 when Andy Reid invites defenses into the box with his underneath screen and quick-hitting game.

Some might argue that Mahomes doesn't offer the same upside as dual-threat-king Lamar Jackson, but Mahomes has outscored Jackson in four of the last five seasons and hasn't missed as many games.

Lamar Jackson delivered 21.2, 20.4 and 21.8 PPG over the last three campaigns. We have yet to see the same 28-point upside that he flashed in 2019, but at age 28 Jackson is still on the edge of his prime as a rusher. Last season, he ranked third in designed rush attempt share (19%) and led all QBs with 51 yards per contest. If there is a nitpick with his rushing profile, it is that his utilization inside the five (12%) was far lower than Allen and Hurts, making him rely more on long runs to score TDs.

Still, only Allen notched more fantasy points per dropback than Jackson's 0.62 (minimum eight games). Now he enters his second season with Todd Monken calling plays, and Zay Flowers is another year closer to his prime. The team gets Mark Andrews back from a fibula fracture that kept him out from Week 12 until returning for the Ravens' playoff loss to the Chiefs. Jackson has missed five games twice in the last three years, so there is some durability risk, but the man still carries QB1-overall upside.

Tier 2 – Dual-threats part deux

Anthony Richardson only played in two complete games as a rookie, but he captured the hearts and imaginations of fantasy football players nationwide with a mouth-watering 25.3 PPG. Richardson handled 26% of the designed rush attempts in those two games, including 34% of the work inside the five-yard line (with scrambles).

Richardson has yet to demonstrate the passing upside of the QBs in the tier above. His 56.5 PFF pass grade was on par with names like Bryce Young and Daniel Jones. But imagine a world where that part of his game also comes alive in Year 2. That would make him a candidate to finish as the QB1 overall. The Colts love to use play action, and they added Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the NFL Draft. 

If the passing maturation doesn't happen, oh darn, you are stuck with a mid-range QB1, which is Richardson's going price on most sites.

Kyler Murray teased us with 24.9 and 22.1 PPG in Years 2 and 3 but hasn't burned as hot over the last two seasons, at 18.4 and 18.7. Still, given the state of the Cardinals' offense when he took the helm last year, the 18.7 is borderline impressive. Murray only averaged 225 yards through the air but made up for it with 30.5 yards per game on the ground despite his late-season 2022 ACL injury.

With the breakout of Trey McBride and the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. via the No. 4 pick in the NFL draft, the Cardinals suddenly have a formidable one-two combo. Murray compiled 271 yards per game through the air in 2021, so we shouldn't dismiss his upside as a passer in an improved offense.

I have Murray projected conservatively at 234, but that number could be way too low if he clicks with Harrison early. Few QBs possess the upside to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 600, and Murray is one of them.

Tier 3 – High-end pocket passers in loaded offenses

C.J. Stroud erupted for 274 passing yards per game and 19.1 PPG as a rookie. Since 2011, here are the rookie pocket-passer QBs to reach 18.5 or higher:

• Andrew Luck
• Dak Prescott
• Joe Burrow
• Justin Herbert

In seasons with at least eight games played, that group produced an average finish of QB8 with a top-12 PPG finish in 12 of 16 (75%) campaigns after their rookie year.

As with any pocket-passer, running pure in the TD department is critical to uncorking a high-end QB1 finish. Last season, Stroud tossed a score on 4.6% of his pass attempts — only slightly above the NFL average. However, the team added Stefon Diggs to go along with two emerging stars, Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Once you factor in Bobby Slowik as the OC (from the Kyle Shanahan tree), the ingredients are there for Stroud to take his game to the next level. I have Stroud projected for 28.5 passing TDs with 5.2% per attempt.

Joe Burrow delivered 20.6, 22.7 and 15.5 PPG over the last three years, but his 2023 marks come with an injury asterisk. Burrow injured his calf in July and re-aggravated it early in the season, which severely hampered his fantasy production.

Over the first four weeks, Burrow averaged a horrific 8.8 PPG. Starting in Week 5, Cincinnati found their groove, and Burrow returned to his usual self with 22.2 PPG with four top-eight finishes before suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11.

Zac Taylor runs a pass-friendly offense but is one of the less-inspiring offensive minds when unlocking upside via play action and motion. The Bengals ranked 25th in play action (21%) and were below the NFL average in motion at the snap (45%). Luckily, the Bengals boast one of the best WR tandems with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. If rookie Jermaine Burton finds his legs early, look out — Burrow could go nuclear.

Burrow is the consensus QB7 among our rankers in our fully customizable Tiers and Rankings tool.

Tier 4 – Proven pocket passers in solid offenses

Dak Prescott has eclipsed 20 PPG in four of the last five seasons. Last season, he registered the highest PFF passing grade of his career (89.8) in an offense that ranked seventh in play-action pass rate (27%). 

The Dallas roster doesn't offer a proven high-end No. 2, which keeps Dak out of the tier above. However, they create mismatches by lining CeeDee Lamb up inside. He played from the slot on 58% of snaps — a rate similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown (56%), Cooper Kupp (57%) and Keenan Allen (59%).

Despite placing Prescott a tier below Stroud and Burrow, I am slightly above the Fantasy Life consensus rankings.

Tier 5 – Discount dual-threat goodness

Jayden Daniels posted a 14% scramble rate and averaged 17% of the designed rushing attempts in college — both great signs for future rushing production. His final two seasons at LSU were particularly impressive, in which Daniels maintained an enticing average of 90 yards per game.

Daniels didn't mature into a prolific passer until his fifth year but arrived in a big way when he averaged 318 yards and 3.3 TDs at LSU. The late breakout is a concern, but it demonstrates his potential in the passing game. 

The Fantasy Life projections assume Daniels will struggle in year one as a passer due to surrounding cast and scheme questions. Jahan Dotson has been a bust to this point, but the Commanders drafted Ben Sinnott and Luke McCaffrey to try and find a No. 2 behind Terry McLaurin. 

Kliff Kingsbury used play action at the league average and ranked 27th in motion on pass plays in Arizona, which isn't inspiring. Given all the factors, Daniels projects for fewer than 3,400 passing yards and 20 TDs in the Fantasy Life projections.

Still, he could push for 700-plus rushing yards on 120-ish totes. Since 2011, we have had 21 instances of a QB recording 100 or more rushing attempts while passing for fewer than 3,500 yards. That group delivered 20.3 PPG with an average finish of QB8. Only three failed to secure a top-12 finish.

If he defies our projections in the passing game, he could challenge the other dual-threat elites in Tier 1. Based on his profile and price, Daniels is my top quarterback target in 2024. He offers upside similar to Tier 1 and Tier 2 players, but you get him much later.

Tier 6 – Ascending pocket passers in good offenses

Jordan Love delivered an impressive 19.6 PPG in his first full season as the Packers starter. Early in the campaign, he delivered strong fantasy performances, but his underlying data was concerning. However, from Week 11 through the Divisional Round, Love took his game to another level.

• PPG: 20.5
• Completion rate: 70%
• Yards per game: 262
• TDs per game: 2.3
• INTs per game: 0.3

The Green Bay supporting cast grades out as average because of the unknowns in the career trajectories for Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. But they are all in the ascending stages of their careers, and the group may morph into a high-end unit. Of course, it doesn't hurt that Matt LaFleur ranked eighth in play action rate (27%) and motion rate (52%) on pass plays.

The sample size on Love is small, creating some risk, but he offers upside similar to Stroud.

Brock Purdy notched 19.4 PPG in his first full season as the 49ers starter. No other QB in the NFL enjoys a more loaded offense. Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey represent high-end options at every position. 

When you have that kind of weaponry plus Kyle Shanahan, who knows how to dial up the cheat codes, it's hard to imagine a scenario where this passing game fails. Shanahan utilized motion at the snap on 68% of pass plays last season — second behind the Dolphins (77%).

Purdy has yet to hit the same highs as Burrow and plays in a more run-centric offense than Stroud, so I couldn't get him into Tier 3, but it was a close call, which could make him a steal in drafts compared to those players.

Tier 7 – Non-statue pocket passers in good offenses

Caleb Williams was the No.1 selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Bears have been preparing for his arrival for over a year. They acquired D.J. Moore via trade in 2023 and then added Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and pass-catching RB D'Andre Swift in free agency. But that wasn't enough — Chicago added a cherry on top with the selection of Rome Odunze in Round 1.

Williams doesn’t offer the same ceiling as Daniels as a rusher, but he accounted for 13% of designed rushing attempts over his collegiate career — almost double the NCAA average. Ian Hartitz found that Williams’ rushing production looked pretty good when excluding sacks.

• 2023: 74-356-11 (4.8 YPC)
• 2022: 94-624-10 (6.6 YPC)

The rookie QB has the chance to push for 4,000 yards passing and 300 yards rushing. If he reaches those numbers, history says he would finish as a low-end QB1.

Trevor Lawrence notched 18.6 and 18.0 PPG finishes over the last two seasons. He has yet to turn into the elite passer we hoped for as the No. 1 pick in 2021, but his passing yards per game have steadily increased (214, 242 and 251). Lawrence averaged 19 yards per game rushing, which may not seem like much, but it is enough to separate him from statue-esque pocket passers.

Lawrence's biggest issue has been his TD production, at 1.5 and 1.3 per game, but the film suggests the Jaguar quarterback could have posted larger numbers in 2023.

The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency but added Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the NFL Draft. If Thomas booms as a rookie, this supporting cast jumps into the good category, which could help push Lawrence's passing totals higher.

Tier 8 – Prime statue pocket passers in good offenses

This trio of quarterbacks offers little in the rushing department, but all three are surrounded by talent and are partnered with strong play callers who unlock significant passing game ceilings. This type of QB can dial up a mid-range QB1 finish if they run pure in the passing TD department, but we are hoping for a high-end QB2.

Given Kirk Cousins' age and Achilles injury, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff are safer options. However, Cousins has the best track record, with four top-12 PPG finishes in the last four seasons.

Tier 9 – Proven producers with offensive challenges

Justin Herbert notched back-to-back 22.7 PPG finishes in his first two seasons but fell to 17.3 and 18.4 over the last two years. This offseason, he suffered setbacks with the arrival of Jim Harbaugh and the loss of Keenan Allen.

From 2011 to 2014 with the 49ers, Harbaugh deployed a run-heavy approach, dropping back to pass only 54% of plays – well below the NFL average of 61%. Herbert is a better player than Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick, but we have seen Harbaugh yank the emergency brake with an elite passer. 

Harbaugh opted to pound the rock 61% of plays in two seasons at Stanford with Andrew Luck. On a positive note, offensive coordinator Greg Roman's offense ranked fifth in play action rate (30%) and eighth in motion at the snap (47%) from 2021 to 2022.

Herbert has the talent to make this ranking look bad and finish as a low-end QB1. However, it is hard to see a path where not taking Herbert costs you a fantasy championship.

Tier 10 – Aging pocket passers

Matthew Stafford has shown signs of deterioration over the past two seasons, with 13.6 and 16.7 PPG finishes. His yards per game, supporting cast and scheme grades were strong enough to put him in consideration for Tier 8, but his injury challenges in back-to-back seasons kept me from pushing him up the board. If Stafford is injury-free in 2024, he could push for a low-end QB1 finish. 

Aaron Rodgers only attempted one pass in 2023 before an Achilles injury ended his season. In 2022, he showed signs of decline with 15 PPG and only 217 yards passing per game. He will turn 41 this season, only has one proven weapon in Garrett Wilson and must deal with Nathaniel Hackett, who has ranked among the league's worst over the last two seasons in play action and motion rates.

So, how the hell is Aaron Rodgers in this tier? Respect. Once we get to this range of the draft, placing a bet on Rodgers to have an as-good-once-as-he-ever-was type of season is in play versus the remaining QBs. In 2020 and 2021, he delivered 24.5 and 21.0 PPG.

Tier 11 – Mid-range QB2s with demonstrated upside

• Geno Smith: Smith averaged 19.0 and 15.8 PPG over the last two years. His biggest challenge in 2023 was regression in TDs per attempt, which fell from 5.2% to 4.0% — below the NFL average. Expect natural positive regression toward the league average, and if Jaxon Smith-Njigba takes a step forward in Ryan Grubb's new attack, Smith could push for a low-end QB1 finish. Smith is my most-drafted late-round QB.
• Deshaun Watson: Watson has been a disaster, averaging 15.1 and 14.8 PPG in Cleveland. Still, finding players still in their prime with proven upside late in drafts is unique. The eighth-year QB registered 25.0, 21.7, 22.0 and 23.8 PPG seasons before leaving Houston.

Tier 12 – Low-end QB2s with youth on their side

• Bryce Young: Young had an abysmal rookie season with only 10.9 PPG. However, the Panthers hired Dave Canales as their new head coach and drastically upgraded their weapons by adding Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks this offseason. They also revamped the interior of their offensive line with two new guards, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. We have seen other rookie QBs who struggled in Year 1 rebound in their second season after similar offseasons. I am above consensus on the former No. 1 overall pick in the Fantasy Life rankings.
• Will Levis: Levis struggled as a rookie, averaging 12.4 PPG, but like Young, he gets a new lease on life in 2024. New head coach Brian Callahan said they want to throw more, and the Titans' offseason acquisitions of Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard and Tyler Boyd align with that sentiment. Ultimately, QB play is the primary driver to offensive game plans, but if Levis shows progress, this team could open things up significantly more than what we saw under Mike Vrabel.
• Drake Maye: Maye could start the season as the backup, but given the Patriots' schedule and roster, I don't expect him to sit long. The rookie first-rounder is willing to throw the ball downfield and offers sneaky upside on the ground. His 14% designed rush rate and 11% scramble rate were second behind Daniels in the 2024 draft class.

Tier 13 – Low-end veteran QB2s

• Baker Mayfield: Mayfield had his best fantasy season (16.8 PPG) since his rookie year (18.3). He has the weapons in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to make noise again, but I don't want to count on it. Mayfield has eclipsed 250 passing yards per game only once in his career, so it is hard to see the upside.
• Derek Carr: Carr has an underrated WR1 in Chris Olave, and the team is hopeful that Rashid Shaheed will take another step forward in 2024. We can expect more play action with Klint Kubiak taking over the play-calling duties. The question is if Carr can take advantage — he is one of the few QBs whose play-action numbers are worse than his non-play-action.
• Daniel Jones: Jones offers a dual-threat profile that is great for fantasy, but he is recovering from an ACL injury. He is on track for Week 1, but we might see him run less early in the season. With the addition of Malik Nabers in the first round, Jones theoretically has a path to his best passing year ever, which could make Jones a popular late-season waiver wire add when his rushing workload picks up.

Tier 14 – Best of the rest

• J.J. McCarthy: McCarthy might not start Week 1, but the Vikings playmakers give him the best chance to become fantasy-relevant once he gets his chance.
• Bo Nix: Nix has a cleaner path to Week 1 reps than McCarthy, but the Broncos don't offer the same supporting cast. For Nix to succeed, he must outperform rookie expectations and needs a young Broncos pass catcher like Marvin Mims Jr. or Troy Franklin to surprise.
• Russell Wilson: Wilson is the favorite to start Week 1 in a run-centric offense, but how long can he hold off Justin Fields? Wilson is already battling a calf injury that could open the door for Fields to impress.
• Justin Fields: Fields averaged 20.6 and 19.0 PPG the last two years and offers a rushing profile similar to the top-tier players. If he ever takes over the starting role, he will immediately move into the low-end QB1 range.

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