Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 7: Jayden Daniels Smash Spot

Before we get into my favorite quarterbacks for fantasy football Week 7, let's take a look back at some of the players I liked in Week 6.

Quarterbacks: Pretty much nailed it. But …
Running Backs: Tank Bigsby. Scoreless 24 yards.
Wide Receivers: DJ Moore. Scoreless 20 yards.
Tight Ends: Pat Freiermuth. Scoreless 16 yards.

I'm just trying to set expectations appropriately low.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 7 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
Must be added if they are on waivers.
Possess underappreciated upside.
Have advantageous matchups.
Should be considered in daily fantasy.
Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
Catch my eye with their player projections.
Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my weekly fantasy football rankings and my NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Bears and Cowboys are off. That's great news for me as a Cowboys fan: They're guaranteed not to lose on Sunday.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 15, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 7 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 7, sorted by position, see below:

Best QBs for Fantasy Football Week 7

Jayden Daniels (Commanders) vs. Panthers

Commanders: -7.5
O/U: 51.5
TT: 29.5

Almost every week I highlight the QB facing the Panthers. Why should this week be any different? Especially when that QB is easily No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.210, per RBs Don't Matter).

Let's start with the Panthers. They're bad: No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.254).

On top of that, they're injured. This week, they will definitely be without key players at all three levels in DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR), LB Shaq Green-Thompson (Achilles, IR), and FS Jordan Fuller (hamstring, IR), and they might also be without their top pass rusher in EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (shoulder) and top remaining midfield defender in LB Josey Jewell (hamstring), both of whom missed Week 6.

Not good—unless you're Jayden Daniels, who's a worthy -179 Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner.

What Daniels has accomplished so far as a professional is remarkable. Just six games into his NFL career, he has already emerged as perhaps one of the greatest dual-threat players of all time, leading all starting quarterbacks with a 75.3% completion rate and 15% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

If you had to build the perfect QB for fantasy football, he might look a lot like Daniels. In only one game this year he has not been a top-12 fantasy finisher. With his top-end talent, Daniels has an incredibly high floor, and with his elite matchup this week he has a league-leading ceiling.

The Commanders have a week-high implied point total, and I have a bet of over 51 for this game logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. With how explosive the Commanders offense and how flammable the Panthers defense have been, this is one of my favorite totals in our Fantasy Life Game Models.

This season, the Commanders and Panthers have been two of the most profitable teams for over bets (per Action Network).

Commanders Overs: 5-1 (59.5% ROI) | +8.1 Over Expectation
Panthers Overs: 5-1 (59.5% ROI) | +8.8 Over Expectation

If lots of points are to be scored in this game—and I'm betting they will—Daniels will almost certainly be the driving force of that excessive production.

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Kirk Cousins (Falcons) vs. Seahawks

Falcons: -3
O/U: 51.5
TT: 27.25

Cousins wasn't electric last week against the Panthers (225 yards, 1 TD passing), but he was efficient (8.2 AY/A), and in the five games since his Week 1 dud (3.3 AY/A)—which I think is fair to discount since it was his first start since his 2023 season-ending Achilles injury and his first start in a new offense with a new team—Cousins has been one of the league's best pure pocket passers (8.1 AY/A).

And now he has an underappreciated matchup against the Seahawks, who might be far worse than some of their statistics suggest.

While the Seahawks are No. 10 in defensive dropback SR (42.9%), they're No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+3.7). Their overall numbers are respectable because of the QBs they faced in Weeks 1-3 (Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Skylar Thompson), but almost every QB they've played has outperformed his seasonal averages, and over the past three weeks they've been exploited.

Jared Goff (Week 4): 100% completion rate | 292 PaYds, 2 PaTDs
Daniel Jones (Week 5): 67.6% completion rate | 257 PaYds, 2 PaTDs | 38 RuYds
Brock Purdy (Week 6): 64.3% completion rate | 255 PaYds, 3 PaTDs | 19 RuYds

To make matters worse for the Seahawks, this week they could be without starting perimeter CBs TaRiq Woolen (ankle) and Tre Brown (ankle) and experienced backup CB Artie Burns (foot).

Facing an overvalued and wounded defense traveling across the country for an early 1 p.m. ET game, Cousins could crush.

The Dropback

Lamar Jackson (Ravens -3.5, TT: 26) at Buccaneers: For the season, Jackson's the No. 1 overall fantasy QB (24.2 FPPG), and despite winning MVP last year (8.4 AY/A, 5.5 yards per carry) he's playing even better this year (league-high 9.3 AY/A, 6.3 yards per carry). The Bucs are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.1) and could be without No. 1 CB Jamel Dean (hamstring).

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers +3.5, TT: 22.5) vs. Ravens: Mayfield has been a top-8 fantasy finisher in every game but one this season, and the Ravens are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+2.9).

Drake Maye (Patriots +5.5, TT: 18.5) vs. Jaguars (in London): Maye was functional last week in his first NFL start (243-3-2 passing, 5-38-0 rushing). The Jags are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (48.6%, per FTN). Maye is ascending toward low-end QB1 territory.

Andy Dalton (Panthers +7.5, TT: 22) at Commanders: After his scintillating first start of the season (319 yards, 3 TDs passing), Dalton has notably underwhelmed (4.5 AY/A), but he has an opportunity to produce against the Commanders, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.7%).

More Fantasy Football Plays for Week 7

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)

Players Mentioned in this Article