Running Backs For Fantasy Football Week 7: Kyren Williams is a smash play

Before we get into my favorite running backs for fantasy football Week 7, let's take a look back at some of the players I liked in Week 6.

Quarterbacks: Pretty much nailed it. But …
Running Backs: Tank Bigsby. Scoreless 24 yards.
Wide Receivers: DJ Moore. Scoreless 20 yards.
Tight Ends: Pat Freiermuth. Scoreless 16 yards.

I'm just trying to set expectations appropriately low.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 7 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
Must be added if they are on waivers.
Possess underappreciated upside.
Have advantageous matchups.
Should be considered in daily fantasy.
Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
Catch my eye with their player projections.
Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my weekly fantasy football rankings and my NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Bears and Cowboys are off. That's great news for me as a Cowboys fan: They're guaranteed not to lose on Sunday.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 15, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 7 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 7, sorted by position, see below:

Best RBs for Fantasy Football Week 7

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs. Raiders

Rams: -6.5
O/U: 43
TT: 24.75

The Rams are favored by almost a TD at home off the bye against a Raiders defense ranked No. 28 in rush DVOA (5.4%) and missing its top interior lineman in DT Christian Wilkins (foot, IR). The spot doesn't get much better than that.

And it's not as if Williams needs much of a situational boost anyway: In five games he has 431 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage on 95 carries and 15 targets. With WRs Puka Nacua (knee, IR) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) looking likely to miss at least one more week, Williams could once again surpass 20 touches, as he has done in each of his past three games.

Despite his small size (5-9, 202 lbs.), Williams is pacing to replicate last year's 1,350-yard, 15-TD campaign.

Najee Harris (Steelers) vs. Jets

Steelers: +1.5
O/U: 38
TT: 18.25

While the Jets are theoretically strong on the interior of their defensive line thanks to DTs Quinnen Williams and Javon Kinlaw, they're still just mediocre against the run, ranking No. 28 in defensive rush SR (45.4%).

And I expect the Steelers, who rank No. 2 in the league with a 52.9% rush rate under run-obsessed OC Arthur Smith, to rely heavily on the ground game throughout this contest, which means that (once again) Harris will be someone I'm relatively bullish on.

In the big picture, Harris fails to excite as a football player. For his career, he has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and 4.9 yards per target. Mediocrity would be a modest improvement.

But he also has a relatively high floor with at least 1,200 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage in each of the past three seasons, and this year he has at least 70 yards on 16 opportunities in every game. Last week, he finally had a standout performance with 122 yards and a TD.

Usually, I'm not a fan of underdog RBs—but the Steelers with HC Mike Tomlin have been absolutely dominant when getting points at home, going 19-6-3 ATS (43.0%) and 17-11 ML (53.0% ROI) in this spot.

Even with a reputationally bad matchup and a situationally subpar spot, Harris still has a solid ceiling/floor combination.

Tank Bigsby (Jaguars) vs. Patriots (in London)

Jaguars: -5.5
O/U: 42.5
TT: 24

I highlighted Bigsby in this same piece last week, and he rewarded my enthusiasm with 24 scoreless yards on seven carries and no targets.

So I'm doubling down.

There are a number of reasons to like him this week.

The Jags are sizable favorites in London—their home away from home—and they have a massive travel advantage because they played in England last week.

Additionally, RB Travis Etienne (hamstring) exited last game early with a soft-tissue injury and is unlikely to suit up, which gives Bigsby the shot to handle the supermajority of the backfield work.

Finally, the Patriots are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.0).

With 219 yards and two TDs from scrimmage in the two games prior to his Week 6 dud, Bigsby has the explosiveness to make the most of his opportunities.

The Checkdown

Kenneth Walker (Seahawks +3, TT: 24.25) at Falcons: Walker missed Weeks 2-3 with an oblique injury, but in his four games he has piled up 370 yards and five TDs while ranking No. 2 in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (9.1). The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (46.2%).
Tony Pollard (Titans +9.5, TT: 15.75) at Bills: Pollard has 88-plus yards on 20-plus opportunities in four of his five games, and No. 2 RB Tyjae Spears (hamstring) is dealing with an injury. The Bills are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+6.7) and could once again be without DT Ed Oliver (hamstring).
Austin Ekeler (Commanders -7.5, TT: 29.5) vs. Panthers: No. 1 RB Brian Robinson (knee) neither practiced nor played last week, and in his absence Ekeler had a 69% rush share and 60% route rate on a 73% snap rate, which he converted into all the high-leverage usage with 100% of the SDD and two–minute snaps and goal-line carries. (He just missed out on a TD.) If Robinson is in, he will be a must-start option, but if he's out Ekeler will be a desirable home favorite against the Panthers, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (31.5) and largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+10.3).
Nick Chubb (Browns +6.5, TT: 17.75) vs. Bengals: Chubb (knee, PUP) has practiced every day for the past two weeks and is on pace to return to action this week. With RB Jerome Ford (hamstring) injured, WR Amari Cooper traded, and QB Deshaun Watson horrid, the Browns might give Chubb a larger-than-expected workload against the Bengals, who are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (50.9%).
Alexander Mattison (Raiders +6.5, TT: 18.25) at Rams: Mattison has either 60 yards or a TD in every game this year. That's not sexy, but it's functional, and in his past two games without RB Zamir White (groin), who is uncertain for this week, Mattison has amassed 29 carries and eight targets. Without WR Davante Adams (traded) and maybe also WR Jakobi Meyers (ankle) and TE Michael Mayer (personal), the Raiders offense could funnel through the backfield. The Rams are No. 29 in defensive rush DVOA (6.5%).

More Fantasy Football Plays for Week 7

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)

Players Mentioned in this Article