Racing To Ace The 2025 Fantasy Football Draft
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade, preparing for the draft, TE draft strategy, RB targets, ADP vs. rankings, and more.
Preseason football is the most important time of the offseason.
Most will disagree. I get it. There's not much to learn, or the takeaways are speculative at best (outside of Dwain’s utilization takeaways for every preseason game).
Plus, it's not like coordinators are digging into their playbooks for meaningless games. Personnel preferences and conceptual biases are for when it matters. But go back to my opening line. This period is critical, but not because we should be in front of TVs soaking in preseason contests.
August And Everything After
August is our time to reframe and lock in on our roster-building approaches. Best ballers have to think week-to-week instead of focusing on season-long outcomes. If you're trying out Guillotine LeaguesTM this year, just getting through Week 1 requires a different mindset. Paul was just talking about this the other day:
"Coming in cold, you're in danger of copying your usual redraft strategies. But Guillotine is a whole different beast …"
The next few weeks will be like prepping for a final exam. And we're here to help you study. Core concepts, like Kendall's dive into understanding Rankings vs. ADP, should be your first stop to help you cram. We've even got you covered on the trick questions. Freedman, Charch, and Thor just talked about the differences between Guillotine and redraft formats, plus who to target. Freedman also emphasizes the importance of drafting a solid bench. So let the preseason games play in the background as we get you ready for draft season with the assistance of our free mock draft simulator, Draft Champion.
Draft season is here—and it’s time to GO HARD.
Mock drafts. Sleeper picks. Endless debates over who’s due for a breakout. If you're deep in rankings and trade calculators before Week 1 even kicks off, you're living that fantasy life the right way. You’re not easing into the season—you’re all in from the jump.
That’s the “Go Hard” mentality. And Mike’s Hard Lemonade is built for it.
Whether you're hosting your draft party, trash-talking your league mates, or just fine-tuning your roster from a beach chair, Mike’s is the drink that matches your energy. It’s bold, refreshing, and never halfway - just like you. So crack one open, take a victory sip for that sleeper you just nailed, and gear up for a GO HARD season. Nobody Makes Lemonade Like Mike’s.
TE Draft Strategy: Why McBride Yes, But Bowers No?
Tight end may be a onesie position like quarterback when it comes to draft strategy, but it’s so different when it comes to strategy. While there are enough quality quarterbacks to go beyond the starters in a 12-team league, it gets late early when it comes to tight ends. And if you wing it, you might find yourself outside looking in to the fantasy playoffs.
Dwain McFarland attacks TE strategy even without his trusty computer. He breaks down how to attack the position in four-round chunks, and offers great insight into why only one of Brock Bowers and Trey McBride is a value play where he’s being drafted. And there’s a good nugget that pairs with QB strategy.⬇️
RB Targets: The Skeleton Key To A League-Winning Season
Earlier this week, Freedman published a piece on the RBs with 10+ TDs in his season-long player projections.
Why? Because the connection between TDs and fantasy points is strong.
But also strong for RBs is the link between targets and fantasy scoring.
Here are the correlations between his projected targets and projected 0.5 PPR fantasy points.
- Coefficient of Correlation (R): 0.914
- Coefficient of Determination (R Squared): is 0.836
Translated for normal people: Across Freedman’s RB data set, 83.6% of his fantasy point projections can be explained by his target projections.
Generally, that means we want dudes active in the pass game.
With that in mind, he has 13 RBs projected for 50+ targets this season. The usual suspects litter the list—Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson. But who are the other 10 who offer league-winning upside in the passing game? ⤵️
ADP vs. Rankings: Making Sense Of Big Differences
What happens when ADP and rankings tell far different stories about the same player? One may say he should go at pick 62, while another says he’s going at 121. Fantasy football aficionados may be confused on where to actually take said player.
Kendall Valenzuela puts her rankings up against ADP for several players on different sites, then explains why those sites are going to end up wrong. Well, more diplomatically, Kendall breaks down why these four players will go either higher or lower than their current ADP.⬇️
Around the Watercooler
The latest NFL news and fantasy football analysis from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 Want free Underdog credits? They’re first come, first served!
🏆 Matthew Berry’s Draft Day Manifesto is here. What’re you waiting for?!
🚀 Preseason Week 1 Utilization Takeaways will be updated all weekend long.
💥 Nerds vs. Normies. Worlds collide over ADP.
💪💪 If you haven’t tried a 2-QB league, you’re missing out.
🤔 Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, or Amon-Ra St. Brown? Tough decisions at 1.08.
📛 Yes, cooterdoodle is a mom first, but on game days she becomes …
🧨 These sleepers may be young, but watch them pop on your team.
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