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Rome Odunze's Fantasy Football Breakout Could Just Be A Year Late
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era, there's a breakout coming in Chicago, a surprise QB could go high, and NFL Draft capital is king.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:
NFL Draft season means delusions of first-year fantasy grandeur—and with it, opportunities to jump on late-round draft value.
There’s a reason rookies fail at such a high clip; newsflash … the NFL is hard.
When In Rome
With 17 games of experience and a healthy offseason to prepare, I’m buying low on the league’s top reclamation project out in the Windy City. Plus, I love getting the full year of maturation through growing pains from two highly touted first-year players. Sky’s the limit for this CHI team if the O-line rebuild is a success.
There’s no argument needed for the Bears’ expectations from the battery of Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze—you don’t spend two top-10 picks on a QB-WR combo without being all-in. Did I make it far enough to mention the Bears also brought superstar schemer Ben Johnson in to lead them to the promised land?
Talk about a quantum leap in gameplanning.
OK, so the narrative side is set—but what about the numbers? I’d concede before starting the production-based metrics suffered due to general systemic failures on offense. That said, haven’t those issues have been decisively addressed? Because the input and utilization metrics border on elite.
Let me show you how I whittled down pass-catcher stats on my handy-dandy spreadsheets to identify Odunze as one of my favorite late breakout candidates.
Of 89 Wide Receivers w/50+ Targets In 2024
49—Made +50 Receptions
47—Scored +140 PPR Fantasy Points
43—Eclipsed +700 Receiving Yards
35—Earned +100 Targets
33—Surpassed +33.0% Explosive Catch Rate
30—Averaged +13.5 Yards Per Catch
28—Ran +13.0 Slot Routes Per Game
26—Over +80.0 Air Yards Per Game
17—Earned +33.0% Of Team Air Yards
15—Targeted Deep +25 Times
14—Averaged +13.5 Air Yards Per Target
13—Ran Routes On +90% Of Dropbacks
12—Ran +36.0 Routes Per Game
9—Earned +15 Red-Zone Targets
… and Rome Odunze is on every one of those lists.
One final thought before I go, aside from smashing the draft button on Odunze at ADP. Some very smart people with my profound respect raised concerns regarding Odunze’s separation score.
Two things. First, I believe the move from Matt Eberflus to Ben Johnson will create physical space in the offense via schematics. Secondly, his 2.96 NGS separation score may lack in terms of percentile—but it’s also higher than Malik Nabers (2.81) and tied with CeeDee Lamb. In other words, that stat doesn’t stand on its on—I’m fine being in the Lamb/Nabers range on literally anything.
Please be safe and enjoy this blessed holiday weekend! HAPPY EASTER AND PASSOVER EVERYONE! 🐰🥚🌷🌹
SOME PLAYERS MOVING UP THE 2025 WR RANKINGS
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