Christian McCaffrey's wild ride to start the season: What do we do now?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+, we dive into the injury concerns with Christian McCaffrey, Freedman's Favorites for Week 2, Ian's Manifesto, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
The sequence of events leading up to the surprise Christian McCaffrey scratch on MNF deserves to be unpacked.
This story has it all—subterfuge, secret conversations, and massive ramifications across the fantasy space.
Here’s what we know as of today …
On Sunday, both CMC and the 49ers expressed confidence that CMC would play in Week 1 vs. the Jets.
90 minutes before the game, CMC was declared inactive due to a calf strain.
On Monday night after the game, we learned that Jordan Mason had been told he would start … on Friday. Mason was then visibly shook about accidentally revealing that nugget to the media.
Schefter then reports that there’s a “real chance” CMC misses their Week 2 game.
David Lombardi reports yesterday that CMC could have played on Monday if it were a playoff game.
And finally, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers officially list CMC as day-to-day … but not with the calf issue, but because of “Achilles tendinitis.”
So where does that leave us? Well, Mason is the No. 1 waiver wire add of the week where available. He’ll be a Top 12 RB play this week vs. the Vikings.
Even if CMC were able to play and even if this tendinitis isn’t a long-term issue, why would the Niners rush him back to a full workload at anything other than 100% health? They just boat-raced one of the best defenses in the league with their backup RB. They can easily afford to keep him on the ice.
Sooooo … I wish I could tell you not to panic if you drafted CMC with your first overall pick … but I’d be lying. We’ll keep you posted.
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Freedman’s Favorites: An RB1 cleared for take-off.
- Ian’s Manifesto: Not the rookie debuts we were hoping for …
- Watercooler: The Steelers starting QB for Week 2?
Freedman’s Favorites: Week 2
Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 2. Check out his full article and rankings for more.
Anthony Richardson (Colts) at Packers
- Colts:-3
- O/U: 41
- TT: 22
Richardson had a hit-and-miss performance last week against the Texans. On the one hand, he completed just 47.4% of his passes, which is in keeping with the 59.5% mark he had last year and the 54.7% he had the year before in his final college season at Florida.
Richardson is simply not an accurate passer, and his imprecision was on display in Week 1.
On the other hand … the dude still passed for 212 yards and two TDs to one INT, giving him a studly 10.9 AY/A to go alongside his floor-elevating 6-56-1 rushing.
Put it all together, and he was the QB4 on the week with 27.1 fantasy points. He's only five games into his NFL career, but he really might be the next Josh Allen or Cam Newton.
The Packers allowed 278 yards and two TDs passing last week to Jalen Hurts and last year were No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.7%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. Bengals
- Chiefs: -6
- O/U: 47.5
- TT: 26.75
With Jerick McKinnon (free agent) gone and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (mental health, NFI) unavailable, Pacheco dominated the Chiefs backfield in Week 1, converting an 80% snap rate, 79% rush share, and 71% route rate into a workmanlike 78 yards and a TD on 15 carries and three targets against a tough Ravens defense.
He has a much easier matchup this week against the Bengals, who lost run-stuffing DT D.J. Reader this offseason and weren't even all that good with him in 2023, ranking No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (1.4%).
In his one game last year against the Bengals, Pacheco had perhaps his best performance of the campaign with 165 yards and a TD on 18 carries, seven targets, and a season-high 93% snap rate.
Pacheco could crush as a big home favorite with three extra days of rest.
RELATED CONTENT:
- With Week 1 came a slew of injuries … and Waz adjusted his rest-of-season rankings.
- Who says draft season is over? Paul Charchian walks you through Guillotine League draft strategy for Week 2.
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Fantasy Football Storylines, Trends, and Bold Predictions to Watch in Week 2
- by Ian Hartitz
And just like that: Week 2 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
1. Well, those rookie QB debuts kinda sucked
Things did NOT go too well for Bears QB Caleb Williams, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, or Broncos QB Bo Nix in their respective NFL debuts. Sure, the former QB escaped with a victory thanks to some timely defensive and special teams scores, the middle QB made his presence felt in a major way on the ground (16-88-2!), and the latter … actually, yeah, I got nothing good to say about Nix. Apologies.
Anyways, each rookie was objectively really bad at throwing the football in Week 1. Among 32 qualified QBs:
- EPA per dropback: Williams (-0.333, 29th), Daniels (+0.241, 8th), Nix (-0.306, 26th)
- Completion percentage over expected: Williams (-19.7%, 32nd), Daniels (-3.2%, 20th), Nix (-5.1%, 22nd)
- PFF pass grade: Williams (50.2, 25th), Daniels (36.3, 29th), Nix (41.8, 27th)
- Yards per attempt: Williams (3.2, 32nd), Daniels (7.7, 14th), Nix (3.3, 31st)
Let's start with Williams, who couldn't get anything going against a Titans defense that wasn't exactly considered a world-beating unit coming into the season. While a dropped TD by Keenan Allen didn't help matters, the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick showed a worrisome willingness to test the middle of the field and only completed one of his seven pass attempts under pressure.
Potentially being without Rome Odunze (knee, week-to-week) won't help matters, but hopefully we at least see some higher-end flashes from Williams and company in Week 2 against a Texans defense that allowed several big plays to Anthony Richardson and company last week (and it could have been WAY worse). I'll set the panic meter at 4/10 for the time being; don't bail on the tantalizing upside of a truly elite prospect after just one (very) bad afternoon at the office.
And then there's Daniels, whose top-eight mark in EPA per dropback is thanks in large part to some of his excellence on scrambles. Overall, the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 2 overall pick converted seven scrambles into 77 rushing yards– the highest single-game mark from pure scrambles by any QB dating back to Week 1 of last season. There have only been 14 instances of a QB racking up 20-plus fantasy points in a single game from only rushing production since 2020 … and Daniels is now responsible for one of them.
The rushing upside here will likely continue to be a godsend in fantasy land as long as Daniels figures out how to strap up his helmet more safely; just realize the early returns of the Kliff Kingsbury experience weren't great. While many hoped the preseason trends here would be rectified in the regular season, the offense continued to not use much pre-snap shift/motion (44.6%, 29th), Daniels' 5.5-yard average target depth was the third-lowest mark of Week 1, and Terry McLaurin continued to spend the overwhelming majority of his snaps simply stationed as the offense's left outside WR.
Daniels also simply just needs to be better himself, but at the end of the day (at least for fantasy purposes): There's far too much rushing upside on the table to be overly concerned about the growing pains in the passing game– Daniels is locked in as a top-eight option at the position ahead of Sunday's' UGLY NFC East matchup against the Giants.
Finally, Nix, who was lucky to have only thrown two interceptions in his debut. Now one of just three QBs to throw for 138 or fewer yards on 42-plus attempts … ever (s/o Justin Mosqueda) … truly the only good takeaway from his NFL debut was the reality that the 24-year-old rookie can SCOOT: No QB posted a faster ball carrier speed than Nix (20.05 MPH) in Week 1 per Next-Gen Stats.
Up next is a date with T.J. Watt and a Steelers defense that made last Sunday a living hell for Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Don't be surprised if we continue to see far more bad than good from Nix and arguably the league's single-worst supporting cast–at least that's what the numbers from Week 1 told us.
Nine More Week 2 Storylines to Follow
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 Waiver Wire Sleeper Adonai Mitchell is worth an add. Don’t miss out when he has the big game.
✉️ The Steelers Week 2 QB is … Mike Tomlin tips his hand.
⏱️ Wait, the second-fastest ball carrier in Week 1 was who?! Impressive.
🍼 Remember Baby Gronk? Well, he’s grown up and can ball.
🖼️ Drawing the Niners revenge tour. Rita Oaks is back and it’s glorious.
😭 Who missed out on the most fantasy points through drops and penalties? A painful list…
🐬 Keep an eye on the Dolphins RBs. Concerning practice report on Tuesday.
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