The Dolphins Are Prime Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidates For Week 2
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Xfinity, we're giving the Dolphins a long look before Week 2, unveiling Dwain's rankings for the week, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Xfinity:
We need to have a tough conversation about the Miami Dolphins this week.
They looked like an absolute dumpster fire in Week 1 vs. the Colts. They got blown out 33-8, generated 211 yards on offense, and somehow ran only 46 offensive plays.
But … they are home vs. the Patriots this week, who somehow might even be a bigger dumpster fire. The oddsmakers agree because Miami is currently a 1.5-point favorite and they are implied to score 22.5 points—the same as the Chiefs, Texans, Broncos, and Commanders.
This New England secondary just gave up 362 passing yards to Geno Smith in the rain, and the Patriots have historically struggled when traveling to Miami early in the season.
I know it seems unfathomable to play Dolphins after throwing up on themselves in Week 1, but I’ll be playing some Miami stacks in DFS this week and plugging my nose and starting Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in my Guillotine Leagues™, where I don’t have better options.
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The new week kicks off tonight, so make sure you’re caught up to speed with the best content you may have missed at Fantasy Life, including Freedman’s positional favorites in his Week 2 rankings …
It’s officially the best time of the week—time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 2, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in Dwain McFarland’s rankings to help you make those start-sit decisions ...
Travis Etienne Jr. is one of the biggest Week 2 rankings risers, entering must-start territory.
Etienne looked fresh and explosive in Week 1 against the Panthers, compiling 157 total yards. He led the team in snaps (62%), rushing attempts (57%), routes (45%) and was the two-minute back (80%).
The trade of Tank Bigsby to the Eagles opens the door for Bhayshul Tuten to gain reps, but we could also see Etienne get even more work while the rookie gets up to speed.
The Bengals' run defense was stout last weekend against the Browns, but they were a neutral matchup in 2024.
Etienne climbs out of the RB3 cellar into mid-range RB2 territory.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ascends to No. 10 in the Week 2 WR ranks.
Smith-Njigba finished hot last season and picked up where he left off with 19.4 fantasy points in Week 1 on a massive 59% target share. The most interesting part about his Week 1 performance was the work downfield (13.6 aDOT) while primarily working from the outside on over 70% of his snaps. He dominated air yards with 91%.
Klint Kubiak also kept the layup looks intact, with 23% of JSN's targets coming on screen passes.
It's worth noting that I struggled with how far to move him up the ranks. I have him sandwiched between Ladd McConkey and Mike Evans. Kubiak loves to pound the rock, and Seattle posted a -10% DBOE (28th), dropping back to pass on only 52% of snaps in Week 1. To continue to thrive, Smith-Njigba will need to continue his target-dominating ways.
The Seahawks are three-point underdogs against the Steelers, and their team total isn't strong at 18.25 points. Still, we saw the same scenario last weekend against Pittsburgh when the Jets stuck with the run while featuring Garrett Wilson.
Maybe Pete was onto something in the intro … or maybe there’s a case of the Miami flu going around our Fantasy Life staffers, because Matthew Freedman wants to chime in as well …
The Dolphins were humiliated last week in a 33-8 loss to the Colts, and they were honestly lucky not to be shut out.
The vibes around HC Mike McDaniel, QB Tua Tagovailoa, and the entire team are BAD.
On top of that, the Dolphins—who already have one of the league's worst OLs—might be without both RT Austin Jackson (toe) and RG James Daniels (pectoral).
And I'm also skeptical that TE Darren Waller (hip) will play this week after missing last week.
But the Pats are also bad, maybe even worse than the Dolphins, who—as terrible as they were last week—are still -1.5 favorites (per our NFL Odds page).
And the Pats could be without CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring), who missed Week 1. Without him (as home favorites), they allowed QB Geno Smith—in his first game with the Raiders and OC Chip Kelly—to pass for 362 yards, even though he was without first-team All-Pro TE Brock Bowers for much of the contest.
And it's not as if this is a one-game thing for the Pats. Last year, they were No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.183, per RBs Don't Matter).
Tagovailoa was bad in Week 1 (114 yards and one TD passing, two INTs).
I think the Dolphins will probably struggle this year.
But we can't ignore how productive Tagovailoa has been over the past 3+ seasons. With McDaniel as his play caller, Tagovailoa has averaged 265.5 yards passing per game.
In 2023, he led the league with 4,624 yards passing. In 2024, he led the league with a 72.9% completion rate.
In 2025, Tagovailoa is likely to have a spike game at some point.
Why not at home?
This game is at Hard Rock Stadium, where the Dolphins have one of the league's best home-field advantages (per NFElo). In Miami, Tagovailoa for his career is 21-12 ATS (21.6% ROI, per Action Network).
And why not against the Pats? For his career, Tagovailoa against the Patriots is 7-0 ATS (91.2% ROI).
I think this is a massive bounceback spot for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.
Bold Prediction: Tagovailoa passes for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs.
And that’s not all. Freedman has two more bold calls waiting for you … and they are HOT …🥵⬇️
The Rams were featured in Jonathan Fuller’s Week 1 streamers article, but remain available in the large majority of leagues and check in as the top streamer for Week 2 once again.
They put up a strong performance against C.J. Stroud and the Texans, holding their offense to just three field goals while racking up three sacks and two forced turnovers.
The Rams now get to take on rookie Cam Ward, who took six sacks and completed just 43% of his passes in Week 1. To be fair, that performance came on the road against the Denver Broncos, probably the best defense in the NFL.
The Titans play at home in Week 2 and the Rams defense isn't as good as Denver's, but this is still a plus matchup for LA. The Rams are also favored by 5.5 points, which suggests Ward could be in a position where he's forced to drop back often, creating opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
Ward may end up a solid pro and there were flashes of the arm talent in Week 1, but until we see him string multiple efficient performances together, Fuller is willing to pick on the rookie by streaming the opposing DST.
For more of his favorite DST streamers for Week 2, read on. ⬇️
