The (Rookie) Train is Coming...
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we touch on the class of rookie WRs for fantasy, rankings updates, regression candidates, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Sleeper Fantasy:
The thirst to draft rookie wide receivers in fantasy football increases each season. Marvin Harrison Jr. often gets selected in the first round of some drafts and Malik Nabers finds his way into the second round in some leagues (Ian and Dwain talked about this earlier in the week).
Rome Odunze has to compete for targets with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen — and he still goes in rounds 6-7. Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman aren’t far behind.
Brian Thomas Jr. is starting to rise and will play a big role in the Jaguars’ offense. A 38-yard catch against the Falcons on Friday made more people notice. He remains a value in most formats. Here’s where our experts have him ranked:
Later in drafts, we see Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Lynn Polk, Xavier Leggette and Ricky Pearsall go off the board. Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan doesn’t get drafted in most leagues unless it goes 20 rounds. McMillan appears to have the advantage over Trey Palmer for the third wide receiver spot in Tampa Bay after he played every snap with the starters on the first drive Friday night.
Get ready for another fun season for rookie wide receivers.
Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit is LIVE (and free)! Click here to access all of the content you need to dominate your drafts.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Jonathan Fuller dives into players primed for positive or negative regression this season.
- Rob Waziak checks in with a rankings update.
- Watercooler: A sleeper handcuff to target?
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Fantasy Football 2024 Regression Candidates
- by Jonathan Fuller
We have hit peak drafting season. With less than two weeks to the start of the NFL season and most of the meaningful preseason action done, fantasy football rankings and fantasy football ADP are solidifying. It’s time for final draft preparations and deciding which players to target and which to fade.
Last year's results tend to carry the most weight in our minds, but it is important not to fall into the trap of assuming 2023 stats are the baseline when evaluating players. Remembering the context of which players ran hot and who was unlucky is critical to identifying players who are overvalued and undervalued. Let's look at some of the top candidates for positive and negative regression heading into the 2024 season.
Positive Regression
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave has quietly had more than 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons. Despite being drafted in the second or third round this year, he usually isn't discussed in the same breath as other elite young receivers. That could easily change if we see some positive TD luck for the first time in his NFL career.
Last season, Olave underperformed expectations for both receiving yards and receiving TDs. The PFF Expected Points model had him 120 yards and 1.6 TDs below expectation. The expected points from his role last season were good for the 13th most among WRs, but he ended up only accumulating the 22nd-most half-PPR fantasy points at the position.
Entering his third season with the Saints and as the clear top target, his role should stay the same or improve in 2023. If he just maintains the role he had last season, we should expect his fantasy scoring to improve, but he also has the upside to see a bigger role. He has minimal target competition with Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson behind him in the target pecking order. If he stays healthy, 150 targets is a very realistic outcome for Olave. In that scenario, we can expect his fantasy scoring to improve through volume, even if his efficiency doesn't bounce back.
Whether it is through volume or improved efficiency (or hopefully both), Olave has multiple paths to topping his fantasy output from last season.
RELATED CONTENT:
- ICYMI: Pete breaks down your strategy for targeting rookies in home-league drafts.
- The best fantasy football picks in every round. Ian’s doing the Lord’s work.
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Fantasy Football Rankings Update: Risers and Fallers on All 32 Teams
- by Rob Waziak
Earlier this August, I emphasized the importance of identifying notable trends among players and teams during the preseason. The process of how teams are utilizing and evaluating their players in training camp, joint team practices, and preseason games is a key factor that helps us further understand where and how a player ranks among their peers.
Three weeks later, the rankings sets are getting dialed in, and while big movements become fewer and farther between with each passing week, they still happen. They always do.
Below are notes on 32 team-unique fantasy-relevant players from my top 200 who saw the biggest changes in their positional fantasy football rankings so far in August.
Detroit Lions
WR Jameson Williams | WR40 (↑13)
Williams appears slotted to be third in the targets pecking order on a Lions team that has seen a steady increase in plays per game (+2.7), time of possession (+1.16), and percentage of drives that finished with a touchdown (+2%) since OC Ben Johnson started calling the plays in 2022.
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Hollywood Brown | WR49 (↓11)
Brown’s Week 1 availability is in question as he continues to recover from a sternoclavicular joint dislocation. He still carries notable upside in the Chiefs' offense, but could struggle for looks after Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy get a piece.
Los Angeles Rams
WR Cooper Kupp | WR17 (↑5)
Aligning Kupp closer to Puka Nacua, the way it always should have been. Both Rams wideouts should continue to excel in HC Sean McVay’s offense, especially if Matthew Stafford can work through his hamstring tightness. ADP has 8 WRs between Nacua and Kupp, but I don’t think there should be more than 4-5.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 A sleeper handcuff out of Houston? Matthew Berry weighs in…
🪓 Looking to give Guillotine Leagues a shot? Everything you need to dominate your drafts.
🏀 The Bills having some fun. Naming random past NBA players.
💪 Early-down grinders with double-digit touchdown upside. Three picks that fit the bill.
😅 A unique way to set a draft order. The Diamondbacks’ fate came down to Torey Lovullo.
📈 Kimani Vidal battling to make the team. Increased his chance last week.
