Week 12 WR Rankings: Upgrade Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers and More
Matthew Freedman breaks down his favorite WRs in his Week 12 wide receiver rankings.
It's Week 12.
It's the time to binge listen to Star Wars soundtracks and football podcasts and binge eat protein bars and tiny oranges while scrolling through fantasy articles and waiver wires.
This is the time that matters.
Let's get into the Week 12 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my Week 12 fantasy football rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 12 Wide Receiver Rankings
Week 12 Matchup Upgrades: DeVonta Smith vs. Cowboys & Mack Hollins vs. Bengals
Some defenses are so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face.
Essentially, they're "flow chart" defenses. If a WR is facing one of them, I aggressively move him up my rankings. If not, I carry on with my life.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Cowboys and Bengals are the league's biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.
- Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+7.1)
- Bengals: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.274) and defensive pass DVOA (46.6%)
Let's ride.
DeVonta Smith (Eagles) at Cowboys: For the season, Smith is actually ahead of teammate A.J. Brown in air yard share (36% vs. 35%) and endzone target share (60% vs. 22%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Last week he had a lowly eight scoreless yards, but I expect him to bounce back this week.
Mack Hollins (Patriots) at Bengals: The absence of WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) over the past two weeks has created extra playing time for Hollins, who has stacked up favorably with No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs (84% route rate vs. 84%, 34% air yard share vs. 26%, 33% endzone target rate vs. 33%, 170 yards receiving vs. 151). The Pats have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and CB Cam Taylor-Britt (foot) is unlikely to play.
Week 12 Scoring Upgrade: Zay Flowers vs. Jets & Jameson Williams vs. Giants
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so we need to bump up the RB."
As double-digit home favorites, the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (30 points) followed closely by the Ravens at No. 2 (29)
Upgrade warranted.
Jameson Williams (Lions) vs. Giants: TE Sam LaPorta (back, IR) is out, and without him last week Williams had an elite snap rate (97%). In three games since the Week 8 bye, he has 14-273-3 receiving on 20 targets with 1-9-0 rushing: Williams is trending up. With QB Jared Goff, the Lions are 27-13-1 ATS (28.5% ROI, per Action Network) at home, where they've had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+8.13, per NFElo). The Giants are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.8) and could be without two secondary starters in CB Paulson Adebo (knee) and SS Tyler Nubin (neck).
Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Jets: In four games since the Week 7 bye, Flowers has 299 yards on 25 targets and three carries, and No. 2 WR Rashod Bateman (ankle) is uncertain. The Jets are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (39.5%), they've traded CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter over the past month, and CB Azareye'h Thomas (concussion) might be out.
WRs Playing Indoors in Week 12
In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where their offenses don't need to worry about wind, temperature, or precipitation. Among those guys, here are those who stand out to me.
Nico Collins (Texans) vs. Bills: No. 1 QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is out this week, so backup Davis Mills could draw his third straight start. Over the past two weeks with Mills, Collins is the No. 1 WR in Utilization Score (98), which he has leveraged into 16-228-1 receiving on 25 targets.
Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs. Jaguars: Last week, without WRs Marvin Harrison (appendicitis) and Zay Jones (Achilles, IR), Wilson had an outrageous 15-185-0 receiving on 18 targets. He could have another strong performance this week against the Jags, who might be without starting CBs Greg Newsome (ankle) and Jourdan Lewis (neck).
Parker Washington (Jaguars) at Cardinals: He disappointed last week (20 yards, two targets), but he still had a team-high 92% route rate in a 35-6 win, and since Week 7, he has a respectable 22% target share, 30% air yard share, and 29% endzone target share. He could see similar usage without WRs Brian Thomas (ankle) and Travis Hunter (knee, IR) and TE Hunter Long (hip). For the Cardinals, CBs Will Johnson (back) and Garrett Williams (shin) might be out.
Air Yard Acrobats in Week 12
The WRs who are targeted downfield—the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares, and WOPRs—have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.
You can see aDOT, air yards, and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Here are the air yard acrobats who catch my eye.
Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) at 49ers: McMillan was the No. 1 WR in fantasy last week (29 points, 8-130-2 receiving on 12 targets), thanks in large part to his downfield role. For the season, he's the No. 5 WR in WOPR (77%). No. 2 WR Xavier Legette (hip) might be out, and the 49ers are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.7%).
Christian Watson (Packers) vs. Vikings: Since returning to action in Week 8, Watson has been the No. 1 WR on the team with a 37% air yard share and 40% endzone target share, which he has translated into 12-234-2 receiving. Watson is far too volatile for Guillotine Leagues™, but he's a viable streamer option in deep leagues. The Vikings are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (21.5%).
Adonai Mitchell (Jets) at Ravens: Last week without No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson (knee, IR), Mitchell had a team-high 25% target share and 52% air yard share. Just saying. The Ravens could be without No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (finger).
The Deep Route
The best of the rest.
Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Patriots: No. 1 WR Ja'Marr Chase (saliva) is suspended, and in his absence, Higgins could be a top-six fantasy option. The Pats are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.4), and even though they're 8.5-point underdogs, I have the Bengals as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.
Darnell Mooney (Falcons) at Saints: No. 1 WR Drake London (knee) is doubtful, so Mooney could see a surge in usage. He was productive last year (64-992-5 receiving in 16 games), he has an established connection with backup QB Kirk Cousins, and he has a 29% target share and 37% air yard share over the past two weeks.
Luther Burden (Bears) vs. Steelers: The rookie Burden has an efficient 10.8 yards per target, and last week he had a career-high 61% route rate and 18% target share. The Steelers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.6), and starting CBs Darius Slay (concussion) and Brandin Echols (ankle) might be out.
Isaiah Hodgins (Giants) at Lions: Without WR Darius Slayton (hamstring), the Giants gave Hodgins an 81% route rate, 21% target share, and 26% air yard share, which he converted into 5-57-0 receiving on six targets. The Lions could be without CB Terrion Arnold (concussion) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee). If you're desperate, Hodgins might be an actual option.
Notes For My Week 12 WR Rankings
Byes: This week, the Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins, and Commanders are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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