Week 13 Bold Predictions: Ladd McConkey Lights Up the Raiders
Danny Cross shares his three bold predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season, including a dominant game for Ladd McConkey against the Raiders.
The bold predictions roll on after another solid week. Hunter Henry fell just short of a second TD (twice!) but still finished as the overall TE1. Jared Goff had a solid day (QB9), and Woody Marks saw the usage we hoped for but not the results.
Let's try to run it back with the Week 13 bold predictions.
Bold Predictions For Week 13 Fantasy Football
RJ Harvey Breakout Incoming
J.K. Dobbins's season-ending injury in Week 10 appeared to open the door for the long-awaited RJ Harvey breakout. The Broncos' rookie had repeatedly flashed in small samples, offering a glimpse of the Alvin Kamara-esque upside fantasy managers dreamt of when Sean Payton drafted Harvey in the second round this year.
Alas, the breakout was not to be, at least not imminently. Harvey handled the lion's share of the Denver backfield in Week 11, finishing with 11 carries for 30 yards and three catches on as many targets for another 30. The 8.0 fantasy-point output was good for only an RB37 finish on the week. Jaleel McLaughlin handled six carries and bogarted the team's only carry inside the five (and scored).
Still, the matchup against the Chiefs was less than ideal, and the usage was absolutely encouraging. If Harvey has inherited Dobbins's RB1a workload—which it appears he has—it's safe to assume the dynamic rookie can at the very least replicate the oft-injured veteran's 11.6 fantasy points per game (RB23). But there is clearly more upside here. The real question is whether Harvey's big-play ability can make up for a clear preference for Dobbins (or McLaughlin, smh) around the goal line.
In Week 13, the Washington Commanders should allow every opportunity for Harvey to demonstrate the difference between himself and the former UDFA stealing his red zone work. The Commanders are the fifth-worst defense in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. They've allowed three receiving TDs to RBs—tied for the sixth-worst mark in the league—while Harvey has splashed paydirt four times through the air on just 32 targets. Over the past two games, Washington has been gashed by fellow dual-threat backs De'Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs to the tune of RB6 and RB3 performances, respectively.
The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites on the road this week. Fresh off a bye and riding an eight-game winning streak, Payton should call Harvey's number early and often on Sunday night. Big plays are likely, with the potential for multiple scores.
Bold prediction: RJ Harvey scores twice en route to a top-three fantasy finish.
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Ladd McConkey Lights Up the Raiders
The Los Angeles Chargers entered their bye week in a bad place, having been throttled by Jacksonville 35-6 in Week 11. Justin Herbert attempted only 18 passes, completing 10 for 81 yards before backup Trey Lance finished out the final 11 minutes of the game.
Obviously, all of the Chargers' pass-catchers had less-than-ideal outings as well. Keenan Allen managed four catches for 53 yards, Oronde Gadsden two for 41, and Ladd McConkey three for just 13. The Chargers only had the ball for 22 minutes.
The Los Angeles offensive line has clearly struggled since losing star tackle Joe Alt to a season-ending injury in Week 9, having allowed 14 sacks in their past three games. The full-season numbers are bleak: The league's 30th-ranked unit in PFF pass-blocking grade has allowed Herbert to be sacked on 8.1% of his dropbacks—the league's seventh-highest rate.
Yet Herbert has earned the game's eighth-best passing grade because, 1. He's very good, and 2. The Chargers boast an enviable collection of talented skill players. Prior to the shocking Jaguars loss, the offense had taken care of business despite consistent pressure by the Steelers, Titans, and Vikings, averaging 29.7 points per game in three wins.
The recipe for such success has been a heavy dose of McConkey and Gadsden. Since Week 6—Gadsden's breakout game—McConkey leads the team with a 25% target share and has scored three touchdowns in six games. Allen's early-season resurgence appears to be over (17% target share in his last three games), and Quentin Johnston has reverted to the sideline-sprinting decoy many expected him to be this year (two goose eggs in his last four). Before the team's meltdown at Jacksonville, McConkey was the WR9 over the previous five weeks, averaging 17.5 PPR points per game.
The Las Vegas Raiders offer an ideal matchup for Herbert and his weapons to get back on track, having allowed the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers on the season. The Raiders have PFF's second-worst PFF coverage grade and only a single cornerback with a PFF coverage grade better than 87th in the league (Eric Stokes, 22nd). Perhaps more importantly, they're only 21st in pass-rush grade. Maxx Crosby is obviously a problem, but this isn't a code red for the Chargers' struggling offensive line.
Two weeks ago, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens went nuts against this unit, putting up 14 catches for 210 yards and two scores. It wouldn't be a surprise to see McConkey and Gadsden divvy up a similar output.
Bold prediction: Ladd McConkey goes for eight catches, 100 yards, and two TDs.
Juwan Johnson Has Himself a Day
Saints tight end Juwan Johnson started the season on an absolute heater, bringing down 19 catches on 30(!) targets over the first three weeks of the year. The resulting 176 receiving yards and a touchdown added up to 42.6 PPR points and an overall TE2 standing. Not a bad run with second-year QB Spencer Rattler at the helm.
Things quieted down a bit in the middle of the season, as tight end production is wont to do. But the veteran has reemerged as a fantasy asset in conjunction with QB Tyler Shough's first crack at the gig. Since Shough took over the starting duties in Week 9, the rookie has targeted Johnson on 17% of his passing attempts, second only to Chris Olave's 29%. No other Saints pass-catcher has cracked 9% over these three games.
Thus, Johnson has once again entered the fantasy top-12 chat. Since Week 9, his 14.0 PPR points per game comes in as TE8, with a spike week of 19.2 in Week 10 (TE3). There has been some good fortune, as Johnson scored in back-to-back, low-volume outings before racking up six catches on seven targets last week for 46 yards, a quiet 10.6 fantasy points (TE12).
The Dolphins have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, with a +3.5 point fantasy boost to the position (second-most). The 0.6 touchdowns per game they've given up to TEs is tied for the second-highest rate in the league. That mark would actually be a league-worst figure in many seasons, but the Cincinnati Bengals have envisioned a whole new way of not covering the position (1.2 TDs allowed per game).
With Alvin Kamara out this week, the Saints' offense is essentially down to Olave and Johnson. As 5.5-point road dogs, there's a high likelihood of a trailing game script and Johnson seeing another seven-plus targets, which he has tallied in six of 11 games so far. That should be enough to crack the position's top 10 with room for much more.
Bold prediction: Juwan Johnson pops another top-three finish with 20+ PPR points.
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