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At this point, I’m not sure why I’m surprised, but everything’s pointing to Philip Rivers starting for the Colts on Sunday.

I had some intrusive thoughts about the decision on Thursday, but I understand it now. The timing (i.e., Week 15, past the trade deadline) put Indianapolis in an impossible situation. Bringing in Rivers is the type of out-of-the-box thinking that some tend to overlook. It’s like going for it on fourth down or trying a two-point conversion. Instead of failing in an acceptable manner, they’re trying something new. I can’t fault them for that. I do wish their opponent were someone other than a defense with the fifth-highest pressure rate without blitzing. Still, everything about this game, from what happens on the field to the reactions on the sideline, will be the main topics of conversation for the next couple of weeks. We could say the same regarding the latest news out of Cincinnati.

I was dubious all week regarding Tee Higgins’s practice participation. I know he wants to be out there. I’m sure Joe Burrow wants him on the field, too. But after seeing him head to the medical tent multiple times in Buffalo and then reporting symptoms after the game, the optics alone of having him play the following week were bad enough, let alone the concern for his long-term health. Cincinnati’s playoff hopes aren’t completely dead (mine are), but regardless of the outcome, it'd be good to see the Big Three out on the field a few more times before the end of ’25.

Anyway, Higgins’s injury wasn’t the only ailment we’ve been tracking all week. Adam and Jorge have all the latest to keep you updated heading into Sunday. But be sure to catch Ian and me on Sunday morning for last-minute thoughts and questions you might have to attack Week 15.

• QBs
  • Tyrod Taylor (groin)
  • Riley Leonard (knee)
• RBs
  • De’Von Achane (ribs)
  • Josh Jacobs (knee)
• WRs
  • CeeDee Lamb (concussion)
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel)
  • Davante Adams (hamstring)
• TEs
  • Jake Ferguson (calf)
  • David Njoku (knee)

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Who’s Got the Best or Worst Matchups?

I was actually kind of surprised when going through some of the ranks and seeing some of the names up toward the top. But then again, it’s been a weird season to say the least. In either case, we’re not just running on vibes here. Each of the calls took our projections and the game environment into account.

For instance, Dwain has Jaxson Dart in his top 10 despite the Giants’ rookie finishing as a QB2 before the bye.

“Dart has averaged 21.5 points in the seven games where he played at least 75% of the snaps. In those contests, he has handled 14% of the designed rushing attempts. However, in his last game, he posted a 0% share. That could be a mandate from the top of the Giants organization, so there is some risk. I docked his designed attempts by 5% for this weekend. Despite the deduction, he still projects for 17.9 points with a 24.3 Xfinity Best ceiling against a Commanders defense that has sanctioned the fifth-best fantasy boost to QBs at 3.3 points per game. Dart is my QB8, matching his consensus FantasyLife ranking.”

On the flipside, I’m sure plenty of folks will be targeting the Ravens-Bengals game from either a season-long or single-week standpoint. However, out of all of the top options, John outlined why he’s avoiding one of the WRs in that matchup:

“Took me all of eight paragraphs to caveat a contradiction, but there is actually one spot you couldn’t pay me to occupy in the Bengals’ weekly shootouts—opposite DJ Turner. Cincy’s former second-round cornerback out of Michigan is putting on a clinic this season as one of the NFL’s premier corners. And he follows top wideouts around the field.

Check this nugget out. Despite allowing the most yards per play and second-most passing yards per game, no wideout managed more than 81 receiving yards in nearly two months against CIN—with just three total WR scores in that same span. One of those matchups includes BAL, where Turner shadowed Zay Flowers to the tune of a (2-16-0) outing. Woof.

No doubt he’s going to be a popular pick for the perceived matchup on paper, but the fact remains—the rest of the Bengals D remains so atrocious, there’s no need to look Turner’s way. Let him remove the player of his choice (in this case, Flowers), while the offense can focus its attention literally anywhere else to succeed.”

And Ian called out Travis Etienne as his workload should keep him locked into starting rosters after plowing through the Colts for multiple scores last week.

“Workhorse alert: 10 teams featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 14: Woody Marks (89% snaps), Javonte Williams (82%), Saquon Barkley (80%), Breece Hall (75%), James Cook (75%), Jonathan Taylor (73%), Travis Etienne (71%), Josh Jacobs (71%), Devin Neal (71%), and Jahmyr Gibbs (70%). All should be auto starts in pretty much fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes with the only two real exceptions being Hall (low-end RB2 if "Brady Cook" is starting) and Neal (dependent on Alvin Kamara remaining sidelined). Even then, I typically let a workhorse RB's volume win as the tiebreaker over WR3 types in close start/sit decisions.”

The Guy You Didn’t Think You’d Need

The margin for victory feels extra thin due to the playoff pressure. Even if you have multiple players projected for over 20 points, you want to see more by the end of Sunday or Monday. Trust me, I get it. However, if there’s one guy who could outkick what the models are telling us, Mark laid out the case for the Giants’ WR1 yesterday.

“Per the FantasyLife+ Utilization Report, Robinson owns a 34% target share over the past five weeks. During the same span, the Giants speedy wideout has averaged seven receptions and 10.6 targets per game. It’s fair to expect Jaxson Dart to dial up [Wan’Dale] Robinson’s number even more against such a vulnerable secondary.

Only seven teams have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than Washington in 2025. The Commanders are the league’s worst defense against the pass, in terms of dropback/EPA (0.437) and dropback success rate (58.1%) over the second half of the season. The season-long stats don’t paint a prettier picture (32nd; 30th). Let’s face it, Washington is already looking ahead to next season. That’s exactly the type of defense that we want to take advantage of.”

The Weather Report

• Game: Browns @ Bears
  • Conditions: Cold, 13 degrees F (at kickoff), 0 degrees F (feels like)
• Game: Ravens @ Bengals
  • Conditions: Cold, 12 degrees F (at kickoff), -1 degrees F (feels like)
• Game: Dolphins @ Steelers
  • Conditions: Cold, 20 degrees F (at kickoff), 9 degrees F (feels like)
• Game: Raiders @ Eagles
  • Conditions: Wind, 18 mph (max) in line with the stadium
• Game: Commanders @ Giants
  • Conditions: Wind, 16 mph (max) in line with the stadium
  • Conditions: Rain, 15% chance (max)

BLUF: I’m not making any changes to my lineups based on the weather for this weekend. Unless you were debating an ancillary option from any of these games (e.g., Tre Tucker, Darren Waller), I’d hold unless conditions deteriorate.

I’ll make a blanket statement about players in cold weather: It affects each differently. Unless we’re talking about extreme low climate (sub-zero), there’s 1) not enough data to establish an actionable trend, and 2) the conclusions conflict depending on the team. Sure, you can point to the narratives of teams based in warmer environments falling apart if the sun isn’t out (e.g., Miami). But we can’t apply that to everyone. So, here’s what I can say. First, some data.

The above histogram is from a study I conducted back in ’23. Essentially, it helps visualize the probability of how a team would operate when the temperature dips. Seeing a higher chance of 30-35 attempts despite the cold is a positive sign. But I can peel back the onion one more layer. I’ve got 18 games from 2015 to 2023 (the full study was from 2023, going back ten years) featuring a kickoff temperature of 20 degrees F or lower. A few notes:

• The average drop in PROE from a team in normal conditions to how they performed in the cold was -2.2%.
  • Fifteen teams were above the expected pass rate when playing in warm weather. Eleven of those 15 maintained a positive PROE after the temperature dropped.
• The average drop in the number of plays run in a game for a team playing in normal conditions compared to how they performed in the cold was -0.7 plays.
  • Of the 11 teams to run four or more plays (essentially a drive’s worth of snaps) than their warm-weather average, five were pass-happy offenses.
  • Of the 14 teams to run four or fewer plays than their warm-weather average, seven came from pass-happy offenses.

As I said, each team behaves differently. On the plus side, the impact has been minimal for what most should experience on Sunday and Monday. Accordingly, I’m still looking to the stars of each contest to produce since the offensive design shouldn’t change with the elements.

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