Week 15 RB Rankings: Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey are Massive Upgrades
Matthew Freedman delivered his favorite running back plays for fantasy football Week 15, featuring Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey having great matchups.
It's Week 15.
For some people, it's the time of the season for good cheer and gift giving. For others, it's time for skipping article intros.
Let's get into the Week 15 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 15 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 15 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football
Week 15 Matchup Upgrades: Derrick Henry vs. Bengals & Chris Rodriguez vs. Giants
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Giants are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.
- Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+6.6)
- Giants: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.169) and defensive rush DVOA (17.5%)
Bang a gong.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) at Bengals: In seven games since the Week 7 bye, Henry has 692 yards and 6 TDs on 134 carries and 12 targets. Just two weeks ago against the Bengals, he had 104 yards and a TD even though the Ravens suffered a 32-14 loss. Henry should continue to see a healthy workload without RBs Justice Hill (neck) and Keaton Mitchell (knee), and the Bengals will be without EDGEs Trey Hendrickson (hip) and possibly Joseph Ossai (shin).
Chris Rodriguez (Commanders) at Giants: The production hasn't been great (259 yards, 3 TDs on 54 carries, two targets in five games), but Rodriguez has been the No. 1 RB for the Commanders since Week 9. I wouldn't start him in Guillotine Leagues™️, but I love his matchup against the Giants, who might be without EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder) and LBs Micah McFadden (foot, IR), Chris Board (chest, IR) and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (neck).
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Week 15 Scoring Upgrades: Christian McCaffrey vs. Titans & Blake Corum vs. Lions
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."
This week the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (29 points) followed by the Rams at No. 2 (28.5).
Upgrades warranted.
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Titans: McCaffrey has a position-high six top-5 fantasy finishes this year, he should be fresh off the bye, he could easily have 20+ opportunities as a 12.5-point home favorite and he's the No. 1 RB in Utilization Score (98, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The Titans are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+3.0).
Blake Corum (Rams) vs. Lions: I highlighted Corum last week, and then he went off for 131 total yards and 2 TDs, so I'm mentioning him again because "you never walk away from the table when you're on a heater." While he's still the No. 2 RB behind Kyren Williams, Corum still has plenty of standalone value. Since the Week 8 bye, he has split goal-line carries with Williams (50% vs. 50%), and as a home favorite he could see double-digit touches once again this week.
Week 15 Home Favorite Upgrades: Saquon Barkley vs. Raiders & Travis Etienne vs. Jets
In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.
Here are two such RBs who stand out.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Raiders: After Barkley rushed for 122 yards and a score on Monday Night Football against the Chargers, I'm high on him against the Raiders. It has been a down year for him … and he could still end up with 1,500 yards and 10 TDs. He has 15+ opportunities in every game but one, and he could have a heavy workload this week as a 12.5-point home favorite.
Travis Etienne (Jaguars) vs. Jets: Since the Week 8 bye, Etienne has 504 yards and 6 TDs on 104 carries and 17 targets in six games. The Jets are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.4), and they traded away DT Quinnen Williams about a month ago.
Week 15 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Tony Pollard vs. 49ers & Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Bills
Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Tony Pollard (Titans) at 49ers: Pollard is coming off his best game of the year (161 yards, 2 TDs), and the 49ers are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.4%). They are beyond decimated in the front seven: EDGEs Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Mykel Williams (knee, IR) and Yetur Gross-Matos (knee, IR) and LB Fred Warner (ankle, IR) are out, and EDGE Sam Okuayinonu (ankle) and LB Tatum Bethune (ankle) are uncertain.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Bills: Rookie TreVeyon Henderson is still the star of the Pats backfield … but Stevenson played ahead of him in Week 13 with a 48% rush share and 58% route rate. I expect both backs to see regular usage out of the bye, but Stevenson specifically could see consistent between-the-tackles work against the Bills, who are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.045) and could be without EDGE Joey Bosa (hamstring) and LB Terrel Bernard (elbow).
Week 15 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Woody Marks vs. Cardinals & Jaylen Wright vs. Steelers
Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Woody Marks (Texans) vs. Cardinals: RB Nick Chubb (ribs) exited last week early, and in his absence Marks had a season-high 29 opportunities (26 carries, 3 targets), which he leveraged into 76 yards and a TD. He should see steady work as a 9.5-point home favorite, and the Cards could be without DTs Walter Nolen (knee) and Bilal Nichols (knee).
Jaylen Wright (Dolphins) at Steelers: No. 1 RB De'Von Achane (ribs) is uncertain to play, and Wright broke loose with 107 yards and a TD on 24 carries and 3 targets after his departure last week. For the Steelers, DT Derrick Harmon (knee) last played in Week 12. Wright should be added on waivers.
Notes for my Week 15 RB Rankings
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a longtime profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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