It is time to set our fantasy lineups for the week and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 16 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those playoff start-sit decisions. One more win and you are in the championship game!

Note: as you read through the rankings, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

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Risers In The Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

Baker Mayfield | QB | Buccaneers

Mayfield ripped a solid Chargers pass defense for 288 yards and four touchdowns in Week 15 and helped the Buccaneers collect their fourth-consecutive victory. The seventh-year veteran has put Tampa Bay and fantasy managers on his back with 20-plus points in three of the last four games. He ranks fifth in fantasy points per game (21.2) this season.

The Cowboys' playoff hopes are slim (1%), but they haven't given up. They have won three of their last four games, keeping the door open for a shootout in Dallas. The betting markets like this game—it has the highest game total (49.5), and Tampa Bay carries the fifth-highest team total (26.8) as a four-point favorite.

The Cowboys will be without Trevon Diggs, who is out for the season. Dallas was already the second-best matchup for quarterbacks, sanctioning a 4.8 fantasy point boost. Giddy up.

Mayfield is a top-six option and offers top-three upside.

Kyler Murray | QB | Cardinals

I didn't buy into the Murray hype last week, ranking him outside the top 12 options. At this point, I see Murray as a borderline QB1—he ranks 14th in points per game and simply isn't as involved on the ground as we hoped. He ranks 10th in designed rush rate (9%) and 16th in scramble rate (6%), which isn't enough to give him a top-12 pass when averaging only 220 yards and 1.1 touchdowns passing.

So, other factors must align to push Murray into the top 12 each week. Fortunately for Murray fantasy managers, this is one of those weeks, thanks to a 26-point team total (sixth) against the Panthers, who allow the sixth-highest fantasy boost (3.5) to the position.

I remain below the Fantasy Life consensus rankings, but Murray UPGRADES to QB10.

QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Matthew Stafford | Rams: Stafford is the QB14, averaging 18 points per game since getting Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in Week 8. Over that span, he has reached 17.9-plus points in five of eight games. The Rams are four-point favorites over the Jets, with the eighth-best team total (25.3). New York was a tough out for passing games early in the season but has coughed up a 3.6-point boost via the air over the last four games. Stafford UPGRADES to borderline QB1 status.
   
• Cooper Rush | Cowboys: Rush's first outing against the Eagles was brutal, but he has averaged 16 fantasy points over the last five games. He only has one dud game over that stretch with 10.8 points in Week 13 and has cleared 16 points in three of five starts. The playoff hopes in Dallas are dim, but the team has won three of four games and gets a matchup against a Tampa Bay defense green-lighting the third-largest fantasy boost to the position (4.7) on the season. The Cowboys are four-point dogs but carry an average team total (22.8). Rush is a midrange QB2 and the SICKO START of the week over names like C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert.

Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Lions

Gibbs stepped into a massive role, delivering 28.4 fantasy points on a 74% snap share, tying a career-high 8.7 Utilization Score. The second-year running back has been money when given 60% or more of the snaps. He has nine such games on his career resume and has averaged a mouth-watering 21.7 points.

The Bears have sanctioned the second-largest fantasy boost (5.6) to opposing RB rooms, and the Lions are seven-point favorites. Detroit owns the fourth-highest team total (27.5).  Expect Sonic to gather enough rings to enter a portal to massive fantasy points.

Gibbs UPGRADES to RB1 overall and is a SMASH play.

James Conner | RB | Cardinals

With passing-down specialist Emari Demercado placed on IR, Conner notched his highest fantasy output (30.8) and Utilization Score (9.2) of the season in Week 15. Over the last four games, the eighth-year veteran has an 8.8 Utilization Score, handling 66% of the rushing attempts and garnering a 13% target share.

The Cardinals need a victory to keep their playoff chances alive. Per NFL.com, their chances fall to 3% with a loss this weekend but improve to 15% with a victory. With everything on the line in a winnable matchup against the Panthers as five-point favorites, we could see another feature workload for Conner.

Carolina has empowered opposing RB rooms to a 7.8-point fantasy boost per game—the most generous mark in the NFL. Opposing backfields have netted 56 yards above their season average.

Conner is a SMASH play—he UPGRADES to midrange RB1 territory in a key week for fantasy managers.

RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News  

• Isaac Guerendo | 49ers: Guerendo took over the 49ers backfield in Week 15 with a 75% snap share, 84% rush share, and 65% route participation rate. He was also active in the passing game, with a 13% target share. The rookie notched 20 opportunities between attempts and targets, boosting his Utilization Score to 8.1 despite the lackluster 11.4 fantasy points. Guerendo UPGRADES to the high-end RB2 tier.
   
• Bucky Irving | Buccaneers: Of all backs with at least 150 attempts, Irving ranks No. 1 in yards after contact (4.2), No. 2 in tackles avoided rate (28%), and No. 6 in attempts of 10-plus yards (13%). While he continues to share the backfield with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, Irving has averaged 17.3 attempts and 3.7 targets in three healthy games since the Bucs' bye week. His lowest opportunity game over that span was 17. Dallas has been decent against the run over the last four games but has still conceded the second-largest fantasy boost to opponents on the ground at 3.5 points this season. Irving is a midrange RB2 with high-end RB1 upside in Week 16; he should be in the majority of fantasy lineups.
   
• Jerome Ford | Browns: Ford averaged 11.9 points in five healthy games before the return of Nick Chubb early in the season. On the bright side, his 7.4 Utilization Score and 14 opportunities per game over that stretch suggest Ford has RB2 potential. On the pitch-black lost in the wilderness surrounded by wolves side of things, Dorian Thompson-Robinson is taking over as the starting quarterback, which could hold down the upside of the offense in a similar way to Deshaun Watson when Ford had the starting gig. Ford UPGRADES to borderline RB2 status based on an expanded role, but the quarterback concern looms large.
   
• Kendre Miller | Saints: Miller handled a monster workload after Alvin Kamara left the game in Week 15. He bogarted 88% of snaps, 100% of attempts, and an 81% route participation rate. The Saints suck—sorry, Cooterdoodle and Cooterdoodle's mom—they sport the worst team total (14.3) of the weekend as 14-point dogs to the Packers. Additionally, Green Bay has held opposing rushing attacks to a league-leading 50 yards below their season average over the last four games. If Kamara is out, Miller gets a big jump up the ranks but doesn't enter must-start territory—he is a midrange RB3 and is the SICKO START of the week.

Cooper Kupp | WR | Rams

Kupp put up a disgusting zero-point dud in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, sending many fantasy managers to pack their off-season bags. However, some survived—like my son—and are left to wonder if they can trust Kupp in Week 16.

The best thing to do in situations like this is zoom out. We want to avoid being held captive to the latest box score, especially with a long-time high-end fantasy producer like Kupp. Since returning from injury in Week 8, Kupp has averaged 15.8 points per game.

If we remove Week 9, when Puka Nacua was ejected early, Kupp has averaged 14.9 with a 24% target share. Over that span, Kupp notched a 6.5 Utilization Score.

Okay, this is not the same Kupp we have come to know over the last few years. Based on his Utilization Score comps, we should expect a broader range of outcomes—they were all WR3s or better, but only 20% finished as WR1s. Still, Kupp has demonstrated a high-end ceiling, eclipsing 20-plus points in three of seven games with a full-time Nacua.

While Kupp carries more bust potential than in the past, his upside keeps my attention, especially in a matchup against a Jets secondary that has lost its way. New York has encouraged a 6.5-point fantasy boost to opposing pass catchers over the last four games, and the Rams are four-point favorites with the eighth-highest team total (25.3).

Kupp is a midrange WR2 and offers high-end WR1 upside.

Brian Thomas | WR | Jaguars

Thomas has been impressive all season, but the rookie has ascended to new heights over the last four games with Jacksonville's pass-catching unit in shambles. Over that span, he has the fifth-highest Utilization Score (9.1), averaging 20.4 points per game.

Despite the challenges of underwhelming quarterback play, Thomas has managed WR28, WR15, WR19, and WR4 finishes since Week 11. With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram done for the season, it is hard to imagine Thomas's role changing—he is the centerpiece of their offense. His Utilization Score comps have been WR1s over half the time.

Thomas UPGRADES to low-end WR1 status against the Raiders.

WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Davante Adams | Jets: Since joining the Jets, he has led the team with an 8.7 Utilization Score and 18 fantasy points per game. Over his last four games, Adams ranks second in Utilization Score (9.4), trailing only Ja'Marr Chase (9.7). The Rams have supported the fifth-largest fantasy boost to the wide receiver position (5.1)—Adams UPGRADES to midrange WR1 status.
   
• Khalil Shakir | Bills: Shakir's utilization took a downturn with the return of Keon Coleman to the lineup in Week 15. However, he remains the top target earner on the team, and Josh Allen is on a massive heater. The Bills are 15-point favorites over the Patriots with the No. 1 team total on the slate (31), and the Patriots have sponsored the second-largest fantasy boost to opposing pass-catching units over the last four games (8.6). Shakir is a high-end WR2.
   
• Jakobi Meyers | Raiders: Words you never thought you would say: we need Aidan O'Connell back. However, if those five words come true, Meyers has a 30% target share over the last four games with a juicy matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has endorsed the fourth-largest boost (6.0) to the WR position. Meyers is a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside if O'Connell is under center.
   
• Jalen McMillan | Buccaneers: McMillan had a strong training camp but struggled out of the gate this season, battling injuries. However, the third-round pick has come to life over the last two games with a 7.5 Utilization Score, averaging 20.2 points per game. While we can't expect that sort of production moving forward, he has an 82% route participation since the bye, making him the No. 2 receiver on a high-quality passing attack trying to hold onto the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff race. The Cowboys have allowed the 10th-largest fantasy boost to the WR position. McMillan UPGRADES to midrange WR4 status and is the SICKO START of the week.
   
• Jalen Coker | Panthers: Coker returned to the lineup in Week 15 and posted a 7.5 Utilization Score, with Xavier Legette exiting the game early due to a groin injury. Coker has averaged 14.8 points in the two games where he eclipsed a 75% route participation rate—the rookie UPGRADES to midrange WR4 territory.
   
• Tim Patrick | Lions: Patrick has delivered WR55, WR8, and WR31 finishes in three games without Kalif Raymond. He has a 76% route participation, serving as the Lions WR3 over that span. He hasn't been a high-end target earner (15%), but Detroit is one of the most potent offenses in the league—they boast a high team total again this weekend (27.5). Patrick is a boom-bust WR5.
   
• Hollywood Brown | Chiefs: Brown is back at practice and could return to the field this weekend against the Texans. His injury was an upper-body issue (sternoclavicular shoulder joint), so he should be in shape, which gives him a chance to push for significant playing time right away in a lackluster WR room. Brown UPGRADES to boom-bust WR5 status if Patrick Mahomes (high ankle) is ready.
   
• Malik Washington | Dolphins: The Dolphins have a terrible passing game matchup against the 49ers, but if Jaylen Waddle doesn't play, Washington would be in line for a significant bump in playing time. Last week, the rookie notched a 70% route participation rate, with Waddle exiting early. Washington will upgrade to boom-bust WR4 territory if Waddle can't play.

Brenton Strange | TE | Jaguars

Strange demanded 11 targets and notched a 9.3 Utilization Score as the replacement for Evan Engram in Week 15. The entire passing game funneled through Strange and Thomas.

While we can't expect another 18.3-point performance, Strange has a second-round NFL draft pedigree (2023), and we have seen teams feed their tight ends underneath the coverage when necessary (e.g., Cade Otton when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out).

The matchup against Las Vegas The Raiders has provided the third-largest fantasy boost (4.0) to the TE position.

Strange UPGRADES to low-end TE1 territory and offers high-end TE1 upside.

TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News

• Dalton Kincaid | Bills: Kincaid played a part-time role (58% route participation) in his first game back from a knee injury that cost him three games. However, he posted a 33% targets-per-route-run rate (TPRR). The second-year TE hasn't lived up to fantasy expectations but has a 25% TPRR on the season—high-end TE1 territory. We could see his playing time improve in his second game back, and even if it doesn't, Buffalo carries the highest team total on the slate (31), so Kincaid could still come through. Kincaid UPGRADES to low-end TE1 status.

Fallers In The Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

Justin Herbert | QB | Chargers

The injured version of Herbert (ankle) hasn't been kind to fantasy managers this season. In seven games playing through an ankle issue, he has averaged 11.3 fantasy points.

While the Broncos' pass defense has lost some of its bite, life is too short to play a fringe option like Herbert in a neutral matchup in the fantasy playoffs.

Herbert DOWNGRADES to low-end QB2 status and should only be in Superflex lineups.

Najee Harris | RB | Steelers

Harris has a 5.9 Utilization Score over the last six games with Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson active.

While Harris is still the lead back in Pittsburgh, he doesn't have the same grip on the backfield as he did earlier in the year. His route participation has fallen below 30% in four of the last six games.

The former first-round NFL Draft pick is more game-script-dependent than ever, and that could be a challenge this weekend—Pittsburgh is a seven-point underdog. Baltimore has held opposing rushing attacks 36 yards below their season average. This is a very tough matchup for an early-down banger.

Harris DOWNGRADES to the high-end RB3 tier and should be benched where possible.

Jerry Jeudy | WR | Browns

You will rarely find a player fall in the ranks as Jeudy has with the announcement of Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting quarterback. In two full games as a starter, DTR has thrown for 121 and 165 yards with zero touchdowns and has a 51% career completion rate. YIKES!

The Bengals' secondary has endorsed the ninth-largest fantasy boost to the WR position (4.1). Still, it is hard to imagine any pass catchers accessing this matchup's theoretical ceiling. The Browns are 7.5-point underdogs, and their mediocre 19.8 team total feels too high.

Jeudy DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR3 status and is the BRASS BALLS BENCH player of the week.

David Njoku | TE | Browns

Read everything above on Jeudy and add a hamstring injury on top. Bob, I got a bad feeling on this one, all right? 

Njoku DOWNGRADES to borderline TE1 status.

Rapid Fire Downgrades & Pending News:

• Bo Nix | QB | Broncos: Nix has been a top-12 option in more weeks than not over the last month. However, he falls to borderline QB1 territory against the Chargers in Week 16. The Chargers have held passing attacks to 1.9 fantasy points below their season average over the last four games, and the Broncos carry a below-average team total (19.8). Nix DOWNGRADES to borderline QB1 territory.
   
• Joe Mixon | RB | Texans: Mixon was held to 10.6 points in Week 15 after falling victim to another hip-drop tackle. Don't expect the Texans to make a big deal out of it this week with a massive game against the Chiefs on tap, but just know the veteran back might not be 100%. The Chiefs have been the most challenging matchup for the RB position with a -4.7-point fantasy boost. Mixon DOWNGRADES to low-end RB1 status.
   
• Tyrone Tracy | RB | Giants: The Giants carry the second-lowest team total (14.8) as 10-point underdogs. Atlanta has held opposing rushing attacks to 2.6 points below their season average over the last four games. Tracy DOWNGRADES to the high-end RB3 tier.
   
• Tyreek Hill | WR | Dolphins: If Jaylen Waddle is out, Hill will get an upgrade rather than a downgrade. However, assuming Waddle plays, the 49ers represent a tough matchup. San Francisco has been the second-toughest matchup for the WR position with a -3.5-point fantasy boost. In a spread-out attack, we need boom passing games, and that is a risk against a defense holding opponents 81 yards below their season passing average over the last month. Hill DOWNGRADES to midrange WR2 status.
   
• Drake London | WR | Falcons: The switch from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix could end up benefiting London, but it is an unknown. Terry McLaurin has ascended to new heights with a rookie passer, while DJ Moore has plummeted. London should still be in most starting lineups, but DOWNGRADES to the low-end WR2 tier. It is hard to find a reason to force him into lineups ahead of players like Ladd McConkey and Jordan Addison.
   
• Darnell Mooney | WR | Falcons: Kirk Cousins hasn't been a high-end quarterback, but Mooney benefited. Cousins played to Mooney's strengths, delivering the ball with anticipation and timing, allowing the veteran wide receiver to maximize his route-running ability. We are still determining if he will have the same rapport with Penix, which causes even more concern for his fantasy outlook than London—Mooney DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory.

Head to our rankings hub for Dwain's full rankings, as well as rankings from the rest of our rankers, custom-fit to your league's settings!

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