It's Week 17.

This is it.

"One ring to rule them all"—and just one piece (instead of four positional breakdowns) for the final Freedman's Favorites of the 2025 season.

In the words of Boromir: "Leaves more time for drinking!" (And skiing, spending time with family, etc.)

Also, I'm writing this piece on Festivus. To all those who celebrate: "I got a lot of problems with you people!" May your airing of grievances be lengthy and your Festivus pole be shiny.

For those new to Freedman's Favorites, this is where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series and my Week 17 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece.

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings: Freedman's Favorites

Christmas Day Games

If you're reading this after Christmas, skip the next two sections.

Week 17 Christmas Matchup Upgrades: Josh Johnson vs. Cowboys & George Pickens vs. Commanders

There are several "flow chart" defenses so bad they provide automatic upgrades to whatever skill-position players they face. If a guy is going against one of them, I aggressively move him up my rankings. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, we get two of the league's biggest flow chart defenses—the Cowboys and Commanders—playing on Christmas.

• Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+7.2) and WRs (+8.0)
• Commanders: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.265) and pass DVOA against TEs (26.3%)

In the words of T. Rex: "Bang a gong."

Josh Johnson (Commanders) vs. Cowboys: With No. 1 QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) out for the year and No. 2 QB Marcus Mariota (hand, quad) dealing with multiple injuries, I expect No. 3 QB Josh Johnson to draw the start on a short week. He looked terrible in relief of Mariota this past week (-0.22 AY/A), but that was as an in-game replacement against the stout Eagles. This week, with a game plan built around him as the starter, I expect a different result against the Cowboys, who have allowed almost every QB they've faced to go off—and now they could be without three starters in the back seven in LB DeMarvion Overshown (concussion), CB DaRon Bland (foot, IR) and SS Donovan Wilson (eye). Plus, Johnson has been a good runner throughout his career (5.1 yards per carry). I'm not starting him in Guillotine Leagues, but Johnson could be viable in superflex.

George Pickens (Cowboys) at Commanders: The Commanders are without CBs Marshon Lattimore (knee, IR) and Trey Amos (leg, IR) on the perimeter, where Pickens runs the vast supermajority of his routes. Pickens can be inconsistent, but he still has 39-578-3 receiving on 57 targets in six games since the Week 10 bye.

Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs. Cowboys: The situation is subpar with QB Josh Johnson likely to start, but the Commanders have an extra day of rest (relative to the Cowboys) to game plan, and McLaurin has a 37% air yard share and 40% end zone target share since returning to action in Week 13 (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). That's good enough for McLaurin to do damage against a secondary missing starting CB DaRon Bland (foot, IR) and maybe depth CB Caelen Carson (shoulder).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) at Commanders: With No. 3 WR Ryan Flournoy (knee) dealing with injury, Ferguson might see extra work. He had 7-29-2 receiving on 7 targets against the Commanders in Week 7, and in four games since their Week 12 bye they've allowed 23-310-4 receiving on 30 targets to TEs.

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Week 17 Christmas Defensive Injury Upgrades: Chris Rodriguez vs. Cowboys & Courtland Sutton vs. Chiefs

Here are a couple players who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Chris Rodriguez (Commanders) vs. Cowboys: In his Week 16 return from injury, Rodriguez had a nice-ish 69 yards and a TD on 15 carries and a target, and since assuming control of the Commanders backfield in Week 9, Rodriguez has 328 yards and 4 TDs in six games (all losses). The Commanders are 7.0-point dogs, but Rodriguez has demonstrated the ability to produce on a trailing team, he's playing his second straight game at home, the Cowboys are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.0), and they could be without DT Quinnen Williams (concussion) and LB DeMarvion Overshown (concussion).

Courtland Sutton (Broncos) at Chiefs: I expect HC Sean Payton to strive to pile on the points against the down-and-out Chiefs, and Sutton has 24-323-3 receiving on 38 targets since the Week 12 bye. For the Chiefs, No. 1 CB Trent McDuffie (knee) last played in Week 14.

Saturday Games

If you're reading this after Saturday, skip the next section.

Week 17 Saturday Home Favorite Upgrades: Omarion Hampton vs. Texans & Emanuel Wilson vs. Ravens

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs. Texans: Returning from injury in Week 14, Matthew Berry's 2025 Ride or Die looked good as a part-time contributor in his first two games back (132 yards, 1 TD on 28 carries, 3 targets), and then last week—with the in-game injury to RB Kimani Vidal (neck)—he took over the backfield and put up 95 yards and a TD on 16 carries and two targets. The matchup is theoretically tough against the Texans, but LB Azeez Al-Shaair (ankle) could be out, and without him they allowed rookie RB Ashton Jeanty to have a career-best 188-yard, 2-TD performance this past week.

Emanuel Wilson (Packers) vs. Ravens: The Packers could be without QB Jordan Love (concussion) and RB Josh Jacobs (knee), which could result in more of a run-heavy offensive attack featuring Wilson. In his one start this year without Jacobs (Week 12), Wilson piled up 125 yards and 2 TDs on 28 carries and 2 targets.

Week 17 Matchup Upgrades: Jacoby Brissett vs. Bengals & Ashton Jeanty vs. Giants

Here are some of the flow chart defenses playing on Sunday.

• Bengals: No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.1%) and No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.9)
• Giants: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.139) and defensive rush DVOA (13.6%)
• Jets: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (39.8%)

Let's ride.

Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) at Bengals: Brissett disappointed last week with just 203 yards and a TD passing (with an INT), but in his nine other starts this year he has amassed 2,708 yards and 18 TDs passing (to 6 INTs) with 33-142-1 rushing. In the secondary, the Bengals are without CB Cam Taylor-Britt (foot, IR), and CB D.J. Turner (illness) is uncertain.

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs. Giants: In the four games since former OC Chip Kelly's dismissal, Jeanty has had a strong 87 Utilization Score, and last week he converted that usage (24 carries, 2 targets) into a No. 1 positional performance (31.3 fantasy points on 188 yards, two TDs). For the Giants, EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder, IR) is out, and DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ankle) has been out since Week 14.

Michael Carter (Cardinals) at Bengals: With the loss of RB Bam Knight (ankle, IR), Carter has played as the lead back for the Cardinals over the past two weeks, putting up 159 yards on 25 carries and 6 targets with a 58% rush share, 63% route rate and 100% goal-line carry share. On the DL, the Bengals are without EDGE Trey Hendrickson (pelvis, IR) and DT Kris Jenkins (ankle, IR), and EDGE Joseph Ossai (ankle) missed last week.

Mack Hollins (Patriots) at Jets: It was teammate Stefon Diggs who grabbed headlines last week (9-138-0 receiving, 10 targets), but Hollins also had a good performance (7-69-0, 9 targets), and since the Week 14 bye he's the No. 1 WR for the Pats in usage (27% target share, 37% air yard share, 33% end zone target share). In fact, he's been the team's top WR since Week 10 (22% target share, 32% air yard share, 25% end zone target share). For the Pats, WR Kayshon Boutte (head) is uncertain, and for the Jets, top CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter are on new teams, and CBs Jarvis Brownlee (hip, IR) and Azareye'h Thomas (shoulder, IR) are out.

Week 17 Scoring Upgrades: Joe Burrow vs. Cardinals & Blake Corum vs. Falcons

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the skill-position players."

This week the Bengals are No. 1 in implied team total (30.25 points), and the Rams are No. 2 (29).

Upgrades warranted.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) vs. Cardinals: Since returning to action in Week 13, Burrow has put up 1,079 yards and 10 TDs passing (to 4 INTs) in four games. The Cards are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.9%), and could be without three secondary starters in CBs Max Melton (heel) and Garrett Williams (Achilles) and FS Jalen Thompson (hamstring).

Blake Corum (Rams) at Falcons: Since the Week 8 bye, Corum has forced a 50/50 split of goal-line carries with No. 1 RB Kyren Williams, and over the past month he has 344 yards and 5 TDs on 44 carries and 3 targets. Corum is still the No. 2 option behind Williams, but he gets enough work on his own to have standalone value with three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football.

Puka Nacua (Rams) at Falcons: I'm doubtful that WR Davante Adams (hamstring) will play this week, and last week without him Nacua went off for 12-225-2 receiving on 16 targets—and he could've had a much bigger day (tackled at the 1-yard line, had 70 unrealized air yards). The Falcons could be without CB Mike Hughes (ankle).

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) vs. Cardinals: With No. 2 TE Noah Fant (ankle) leaving Week 15 early with an injury, Gesicki over the past two games has had a 73% route rate, which he has leveraged into an 18% air yard share and 20% end zone target share. The Cards are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (19.3%).

Week 17 Home Favorite Upgrades: James Cook vs. Eagles & Chase Brown vs. Cardinals

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Eagles: About nine months ago—before the 2025 NFL draft—I said this about Cook: "In 2023, Cook had 1,567 scrimmage yards but only six TDs. In 2024, Cook had only 1,267 yards … but 18 TDs. In 2025, why can't he have the best of both worlds with 1,567 yards and 18 TDs alongside MVP QB Josh Allen?" Given that Cook has 1,820 yards and 14 TDs with two games left to go, I got pretty close to the mark. The matchup with the Eagles is suboptimal, but Cook has 1,194 yards and 9 TDs in nine games since the Week 7 bye. He's getting his no matter what.

Chase Brown (Bengals) vs. Cardinals: In six games since the Week 10 bye, Brown has 604 yards and 5 TDs on 89 carries and 34 targets. The Cards are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.1), and they could be without EDGE Josh Sweat (ankle) and DT Walter Nolen (knee) was placed on IR.

Week 17 Indoors Upgrades: Trevor Lawrence vs. Colts & Alec Pierce vs. Jaguars

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs and pass catchers playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are three such players who stand out.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) at Colts: The Jags offense has been elite since the Week 8 bye (33.0 points per game vs. 20.9 prior), and Lawrence has played his best ball of the season over the past month (1,082 yards, 12 TDs passing with 10.6 AY/A, 18-112-2 rushing). The Colts will likely be without top CBs Sauce Gardner (calf) and Charvarius Ward (concussion, IR) yet again.

Alec Pierce (Colts) vs. Jaguars: I highlighted Pierce last week, and then he went off for 4-86-2 receiving, so I'm mentioning him again because "you never walk away from the table when you're on a heater." For the season, Pierce is one of just four WRs with at least a 40% mark in both air yard share (42%) and end zone targets (40%). For the Jags, CB Greg Newsome (shoulder) is uncertain.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) vs. Rams: Even with the return last week of No. 1 WR Drake London, Pitts still had 7-57-1 receiving on 9 targets. Since QB Kirk Cousins became the starter in Week 12, Pitts is the No. 1 TE in Utilization Score (98), and he has leveraged that usage into an obscene 33-420-4 receiving on 44 targets in five games. The Rams are without SS Quentin Lake (elbow, IR).

Week 17 Air Yards Upgrades: Chris Olave vs. Titans & Jauan Jennings vs. Bears

The WRs who are targeted downfield—the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares and WOPRs—have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.

You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Here are two air yard accumulators who have my attention this week.

Chris Olave (Saints) at Titans: I've highlighted Olave in this piece in each of the past two weeks, yada, yada, yada, I'm mentioning him again now. WRs Rashid Shaheed (traded), Brandin Cooks (waived) and Devaughn Vele (shoulder, IR) are all gone, and since the team parted with Shaheed in Week 10, Olave has a 91% route rate, 30% target share, 53% air yard share, 71% end zone target share and 90 Utilization Score, which he has leveraged into 37-484-5 receiving on 58 targets. The Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (47.2%), No. 1 CB L'Jarius Sneed (quad, IR) is out and CB Marcus Harris (knee) exited last week early. Olave is finishing the season strong.

Jauan Jennings (49ers) vs. Bears: I'm skeptical that TE George Kittle (ankle) and No. 2 WR Ricky Pearsall (knee) will play, so this could be another opportunity for Jennings to go off. Since Jennings returned to full practice in Week 8, he has a 23% target share, 31% air yard share and 35% endz one target share. In his five games since QB Brock Purdy returned to action in Week 11, Jennings has 21-242-5 receiving on 30 targets. The Bears are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.4).

Week 17 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Jets & D.J. Moore vs. 49ers

Here are five guys who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) at Jets: RB TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) exited last week with a head injury, which gives Stevenson a shot to dominate the Pats backfield against the Jets, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.2). After easing back into action in his return from injury in Week 12, Stevenson has put up 235 yards and a TD over the past three games with a 71% snap rate.

DJ Moore (Bears) at 49ers: No. 1 WR Rome Odunze (foot) has been out since Week 14, and No. 3 WR Luther Burden (ankle) exited Week 15 early. In their absence, Moore has 9-166-3 receiving on 12 targets with 1-12-0 rushing over the past two games—and in Week 9 (Burden's other absence) he had 4-72-0 receiving on 6 targets with 1-17-1 rushing. The 49ers could be without CB Renardo Green (neck).

Harold Fannin (Browns) vs. Steelers: TE David Njoku (knee) exited Week 14 early, which has facilitated the emergence of Fannin, the No. 2 TE in Utilization Score (97) over the past three games. With his enhanced opportunity, Fannin has looked like a superstar (19-196-2 receiving, 31 targets, 2-3-1 rushing), and now without RB Quinshon Judkins (leg, IR), the Browns might lean more into Fannin's Taysom Hill-like goal-line running. The Steelers are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+3.3).

Taysom Hill (Saints) at Titans: RB Alvin Kamara (knee) last played in Week 12, and RB Devin Neal (hamstring, IR) is out. In their absence Hill served as the primary runner for the Saints last week (12-42-0 rushing). On top of that, No. 2 TE Foster Moreau (ankle) exited last week early, which pushed Hill into more of a pass-catching role with a season-high 20 routes, which he translated into a season-best 4-36-0 receiving on 6 targets. And then he also passed for a 38-yard TD. With his injury-aided expanded role, Hill is a viable desperado waiver wire option.   

Jake Tonges (49ers) vs. Bears: No. 1 TE George Kittle (ankle) exited Monday Night Football with an injury, which seemingly puts him on the doubtful side of questionable with a short week. As a result, Tonges is again in play as a streamer, especially since No. 2 WR Ricky Pearsall (knee, ankle) seems unlikely to suit up after neither practicing nor playing last week. As the top TE for the 49ers in Weeks 1-6, Tonges had a healthy 25-224-3 receiving on 34 targets and a 70% route rate.

Week 17 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Kyle Monangai vs. 49ers & Jakobi Meyers vs. Colts

Here are two guys who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Kyle Monangai (Bears) at 49ers: The Bears have a two-day rest-and-prep edge over the 49ers, who are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (46.8%) and terribly injured on the front seven: EDGEs Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Mykel Williams (knee, IR) and Yetur Gross-Matos (knee, IR), and LB Fred Warner (ankle, IR) are out, and LB Tatum Bethune (ankle) aggravated his injury last week. Since No. 1 RB D'Andre Swift returned from injury in Week 10, Monangai has still averaged 14.0 opportunities (12.4 carries, 1.6 targets) per game and forced a 50/50 split of goal-line carries.

Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars) at Colts: After easing into the offense in his first game with the team, Meyers has been the No. 1 WR for the Jags since Week 11 with a 93% route rate, 25% target share and 72 Utilization Score, which he has converted into 28-359-3 receiving on 43 targets with 5-13-0 rushing in six games. The Colts are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.2), No. 1 CB Sauce Gardner (calf) last played in Week 13 and No. 2 CB Charvarius Ward (concussion, IR) is out.

Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings Notes

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

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