Week 4 Bold Predictions: Micah Parsons Revenge Game, James Cook Hat Trick, and More
Matthew Freedman shares his bold predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season, including a personal-record-breaking revenge game for Micah Parsons.
It's time for the Week 4 bold predictions piece.
As always, I strive to be technically wrong but directionally right.
For my full thoughts on the characteristics of a fearless forecast, see my Week 1 NFL bold predictions piece, but each week I want to make 3-5 predictions that are improbable and yet also actionable.
In a word: Bold.
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I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which will reflect any updated opinions I have after I submit this article.
For more of my player analysis, check out my Week 4 Freedman's Favorites series (via my Fantasy Life author page).
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Abbreviations I might use are at the end of the piece.
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Let's get to it: The Oracle's Week 4 bold calls!
James Cook (Bills) vs. Saints
The gawds of gambling and football be good. This is the smashiest of smash spots.
This is the second straight home game for the Bills and the third in four weeks. They have three extra days of rest and prep coming off Thursday Night Football. With an outdoor stadium in upstate New York, they're hosting an indoor team from the South.
And that team—the Saints—is playing its second straight road game and is going coast to coast after playing in Seattle last week.
Oh, and the Saints are the league's worst team with their 0-3 record.
The Bills are consensus 16.5-point favorites—and, frankly, I think that's giving the Saints too much credit. I have this projected at -18.5 (per our Fantasy Life Game Model).
While this setup provides a theoretical upgrade for everyone in the offense, the guy who should get the biggest upgrade (in my opinion) is RB James Cook.
In 2023, Cook had 1,567 scrimmage yards … but only six TDs. In 2024, he had only 1,267 yards … but 18 TDs.
This offseason, I asked this question: "Why couldn't he shoot the moon in 2025 with 1,567 yards and 18 TDs while playing alongside MVP QB Josh Allen?"
Well, that's exactly what Cook has done so far this year.
- Week 1 (vs. BAL): 102 yards, 1 TD
- Week 2 (at NYJ): 135 yards, 2 TDs
- Week 3 (vs. MIA): 118 yards, 2 TDs
He's the only player in the league with 100+ yards and a TD in each of the first three weeks.
And it's not as if this is a fluke: He has seen the requisite increase in usage to support his production (per our Utilization Score, found in the Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
- 2022: 33
- 2023: 69
- 2023: 66
- 2023: 81
Even with Allen "stealing" 16 TDs rushing, Cook now has 25 TDs in 22 games since last year (including playoffs).
In any given contest, the question for Cook is not if he'll score TDs—it's how many.
And now he has this juicy matchup against the Saints, who are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.7). Just last week, they yielded two TDs to Kenneth Walker in a 44-13 home win.
I think we can do better than that, right?
Bold Prediction: Cook scores 3+ TDs.
Micah Parsons (Packers) at Cowboys
Not even a month ago, Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones sold his soul—I mean, traded away two-time first-team All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons to the Packers.
With 12+ sacks in each of his first four seasons with the Cowboys and 1.5 in three games with the Packers, the explosive Parsons is one of the best pass rushers of this generation—and maybe ever.
And now the Packers are traveling to Dallas to face the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Oh baby: We have ourselves a #RevengeGame.
The Packers are consensus seven-point favorites, so the Cowboys will probably need to have a pass-heavy game script … and that means extra sack opportunities for the motivated Parsons.
In a recent AP interview, Parsons said that "it's going to be painful" to sack former teammate and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
I'm sure it will be painful—for Prescott.
For this game, the Cowboys will be without C Cooper Beebe (ankle, IR) and RG Tyler Booker (ankle). LT Tyler Guyton has a terrible 37.5 pass block grade (per PFF). RT Terence Steele has a slightly better but still bad 50.3 PFF pass block grade.
And the team will also be without No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle).
The Cowboys' offense could struggle significantly against the stout Packers defense, which is No. 2 in SR (37.4%, per RBs Don't Matter).
Thrice in his career, Parsons has hit his personal high of 2.5 sacks.
Honestly, 2.5 sacks—for a career high—isn't all that high, know what I mean?
Bold Prediction: Parsons gets 3+ sacks.
Ricky Pearsall (49ers) vs. Jaguars
If you look at some numbers, the Jags' defense doesn't look bad. In fact, it looks good.
They're No. 2 in defensive EPA (-0.114) and No. 3 in defensive SR (38.3%).
In defensive DVOA, they're No. 4 (-17.2%, per FTN).
But I think these numbers are fake.
In Week 1, they faced QB Bryce Young and the Panthers. Enough said.
In Week 2, Bengals QB Joe Burrow exited in the second quarter because of an in-game injury, and then backup Jake Browning threw three INTs … and they still allowed 31 points in a loss.
And then in Week 3, they faced a moribund Texans offense struggling under new OC Nick Caley.
This week is different.
They're traveling east to west for a late 4:05 p.m. ET game, the 49ers seem likely to get back QB Brock Purdy (shoulder, toe), and HC Kyle Shanahan is one of the league's best offensive play callers.
I expect the Jags to get exposed—and I think it will happen via the air attack.
If you look at how the Jags have defended Nos. 2-3 WRs, you might think they have an elite secondary.
- Defensive Pass DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs: -110.3% (No. 1)
- Defensive Pass DVOA vs. No. 3 WRs: -65.2% (No. 1)
Nah. They're so good against supplementary receivers in part because they're so bad against primary pass catchers (No. 25 vs. No. 1 WRs, 33.9%).
Here's what No. 1 WRs have done against the Jags this season.
- Tetairoa McMillan (Week 1): 5-68-0 receiving | Nine targets
- Ja'Marr Chase (Week 2): 14-165-1 receiving | 16 targets
- Nico Collins (Week 3): 8-104-1 receiving | 11 targets
For the 49ers, WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee, PUP) is out for at least one more game, and WR Jauan Jennings (ankle, shoulder) missed every practice last week and didn't play, so I'm skeptical he'll suit up in Week 4.
And don't forget that TE George Kittle (hamstring, IR) is also out.
So that means Pearsall could be the team's No. 1 pass catcher this week.
That's what he was last week, when he went off for 8-117-0 receiving on 11 targets against the Cardinals. Pearsall has played well when featured: In his seven NFL starts, he has 643 yards and three TDs on 52 targets and four carries.
And this year, he has 16-281-0 receiving on 24 targets in three games.
You might quibble with his target volume this season: Eight targets a game is good, but it's not great. My counter would be that two of those games came with a backup QB, and Pearsall is still early in his career. He has room to develop and dominate.
Plus, in terms of playing time, he's already a top-12 WR (92% snap rate, 180 snaps). Eventually, I expect snaps to translate into more targets, and he's already efficient with the targets he gets (9.7 yards per target for career).
And then … the matchup. As noted earlier, some numbers would indicate that the Jags' defense is good … but they're No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+9.2).
The Jags are JAGs.
Bold Prediction: Pearsall has 150+ yards and a TD (assuming Jennings is out).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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