My favorite hobby, outside of cosplaying as a fantasy analyst, of course, is cooking.

Creating an enjoyable dish is an incredible experience. Turn on some music, throw some ingredients into a pan and let the flavors do the work. But the process doesn’t consider one component at a time. You’re having to measure, combine and whisk several things at once. I try to apply the same mindset to my rosters.

Sure, you’ve got all of the main components in your lineup or on your bench. Guys like Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown are your pantry essentials. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Emeka Egbuka add some spice. However, we still need to fold in their defensive matchups. Because without taking them into account, we can wind up with a bad meal and no idea how everything turned out so poorly.

WR/CB Matchups to Target in Week 5

Tetaiora McMillan vs. Dolphins

As I mentioned in the introduction, we should factor in at least two key elements: talent and situation. I’ll throw in a third, game environment, but that’ll come later. Let’s start with Tetairoa McMillan’s talent.

Yes, it’s one rep, but you can see part of why the Panthers selected McMillan at No. 8 overall. Other than his 6-foot-5 frame, the former Wildcat’s fluidity on in-breaking routes gives him enough separation to work after the catch. Ranking seventh in YAC per reception (5.6) emphasizes this point. And it’s no wonder he’s been able to keep the rest of Carolina’s pass catchers well below him in the pecking order.

• Target Rate: 25.0%, 1st (on the team)
• Air Yard Share: 41.0%, 1st 
• UR Score: 72, 1st 

However, there’s the Bryce Young of it all to consider. The stretch of good play from Young over the back half of last year feels like a mirage after the first month of 2025. He’s 27th in EPA per dropback, and he’s either thrown for more than 300 yards or less than 200 in every game. There’s no in between. But against the Dolphins, there’s some hope.

• Pressure Rate: 29th 
• Defensive EPA per Play: 31st
• Passing Yards per Game Allowed: 20th 

Every QB to face Miami has scored more than 20.0 points. And they’ve all done it in different ways. Daniel Jones, Drake Maye, and Justin Fields found the end zone as throwers and runners. Josh Allen completed only three TD passes against the Dolphins. And with the game projected for a back-and-forth affair (44.5 points, seventh most), McMillan has all the ingredients of a top-12 WR for Week 5.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Titans

If you’ve read any of my work, you know I let the numbers guide my thoughts, and film will fill in the blanks. In essence, if I can quantify something, I can speak on it. But I don’t know how to measure Marvin Harrison Jr.’s touchdown from last week. I do know it matters, though.

I use the word ‘I know’ because Harrison’s usage didn’t reflect the production. Based on his numbers from last year, we’d expect a jump in results for the second-year receiver.

• Slot Rate: 14.8% (2024), 21.5% (2025)
• Air Yards per Target: 14.4, 10.8
• Screen Target Rate: 0.0%, 7.4%

While we’re not getting everything we want for Harrison, the effort to get him into more advantageous looks for Kyler Murray is there. They just haven’t amounted to anything more than two top-20 finishes with a couple of duds in between. The inconsistency has taken its toll on fantasy managers—and, clearly, Harrison)—but Tennessee gives the Cardinals’ passing game a chance to keep the momentum going.

• Week 1: Courtland Sutton, 9-61-1 
• Week 2: Davante Adams, 13-106-1
• Week 3: Michael Pittman Jr., 6-73-1
• Week 4: Nico Collins, 6-79-0

Each of the WRs listed, at least in part, aligns with how OC Drew Petzing has deployed his top receiver. Sutton, Adams and Pittman all scored from the outside. Meanwhile, Collins racked up three explosive plays against the Titans’ perimeter coverage. It’d be reasonable to look at Week 4 as a fluke for Harrison, but this weekend’s matchup gives him another chance to show why he was an early-round draft target.

Sneaky Matchups

Jameson Williams at Bengals

I only count Jameson Williams as a ‘sneaky’ play, given his usage and results. Of course, he plays for one of the better (best?) teams in the NFC, but Williams’ workload hasn’t matched the expectations we had for him during draft season.

Per our Utilization game logs, Williams has been the WR3 for most of Detroit’s outings. He’s scored more than 10.0 PPR points just once. But against the Bengals, the fourth-year receiver operates in the area that Cincinnati has the most trouble covering.

• YPG Allowed to Perimeter WRs: 100.8, 13th-most
• Explosive Passing Rate Allowed: 21.8% 13th-most
• PPR PPG Allowed to WRs: 36.4, 8th-most

To be fair, with Cincinnati ranking 25th in pass-rush win rate, any aspect of an opposing passing game should work. But if receivers that fit the jump-ball (Courtland Sutton, 6-85-1) and speedy, field-stretching (Dyami Brown, 7-57-1) archetype can succeed, Williams, at worst, has FLEX appeal in Week 5.

Ladd McConkey vs. Commanders

Week 5 is the week.

Do I have a few teams with Ladd McConkey on them? Yes.

Am I still coping with the idea that McConkey might be (is?) the Chargers’ WR3? Absolutely.

However, looking at how other teams have played the Commanders, there’s some credence to the idea that the Chargers will use the sophomore to exploit Washington’s coverage. Let’s review the last two QBs to face the Commanders.

For both Michael Penix Jr. and Geno Smith, over half of their pass attempts were 10 air yards or less (55.2% and 57.7%). And for the Falcons specifically, the slot was a primary target, leading to Drake London’s 8-110-1 day. Part of the reason for the short-area throws is Washington’s pass rush, which ranks third in pressure rate and is racking up 2.5 sacks per game. So, if the best way to attack the Commanders is with underneath routes, that leaves two options for Justin Herbert.

• Quentin Johnston: 20.3% (slot rate), 17.9 (air yards per target)
• Keenan Allen: 40.4%, 8.2
• McConkey: 63.2%, 9.4

We’ve seen Herbert try to swing for the fences with deep shots, leading to Johnston’s hot start to the season. But the hits keep on coming for LA. And I mean that literally, as Herbert now has the second-most QB hits through four games (33). Assuming a shift in QB style against a susceptible secondary, McConkey’s best chance for success might be Week 5.

Matchup to Avoid

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Chiefs

Similar to our Jameson Williams conversation from earlier, Brian Thomas Jr.'s metrics have matched those of a WR1. However, the results don’t match.

I’m not going to get into the ‘business decisions’ the second-year receiver may or may not be making when he’s out on the field. I will say we can assign some of the blame to his QB. Looking at Trevor Lawrence’s catchable pass rate when targeting Thomas (43.0% and 55.0% in Weeks 1 and 2), the two weren’t on the same page, which should be understandable after the two had only half a season together in 2024. But going up against the Chiefs won’t give them much time to build their on-field chemistry.

Kansas City has top-10 marks in pressure and blitz rate. In other words, they put enemy QBs in conflict and can do it with four or more pass rushers. After Herbert torched them for 318 yards, no QB has thrown for more than 160. Jalen Hurts needed a Tush Push to come up with the best outing against the Chiefs in the last three weeks (11.5 points). As Thomas and Lawrence continue to get on the same page, if you can avoid starting Thomas, I’d look for other options ahead of their Week 5 matchup.

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