Week 6 WR Rankings: Stefon Diggs Will Stay Hot
Matthew Freedman breaks down his favorite players in his Week 6 wide receiver rankings.
It's Week 6.
We officially have a middle-aged NFL regular season.
If it were a man, it would have stubble on its face, bags under its eyes, whiskey on its breath, and a solo Mark Lanegan record playing on repeat in its head.
Or maybe that's just me.
Either way, let's get into the Week 6 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of:
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my weekly rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 6 fantasy football plays.
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Week 6 Wide Receiver Rankings
Xavier Worthy Is Primed for Week 6 Bounceback
I highlighted Xavier Worthy in last week's piece … and then he had 51 scoreless yards. Not what we're looking for.
But I'm ultimately encouraged by what we've seen since Worthy returned to action in Week 4.
In Weeks 1-3, the Chiefs scored 21, 17, and 22 points. Boring.
But in Weeks 4-5, the Chiefs scored 37 and 28 points, and Worthy got 17 targets and three carries (with 10 opportunities in each game).
Although he disappointed last week, with his strong usage in Weeks 4-5 he's had 172 scrimmage yards.
And in his 10 final full games last year, he had 754 yards and seven TDs on 76 targets and 14 carries.
With his short-term usage and long-term production, Worthy increasingly looks like a legit No. 1 WR, and he's got a great matchup against the Lions, who are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.2).
On top of that, the Lions are without starting perimeter CBs D.J. Reed (hamstring, IR) and Terrion Arnold (shoulder, out) and depth CB Khalil Dorsey (concussion, doubtful).
With WR Rashee Rice (suspension) out one more week, Worthy is on the WR1 borderline.
Stefon Diggs Earns Week 6 Upgrade
Not even a year ago, Stefon Diggs suffered a season-ending knee injury in his lone campaign with the Texans.
Given his advanced age (he turns 32 years old in November), I thought his ACL tear might end his career, and I was skeptical he'd function as a true No. 1 WR for the Patriots when they signed him to a three-year, $63.5 million contract in March.
For the first few weeks of the season, my pessimism seemed warranted, as Diggs played behind Kayshon Boutte, rotated in with DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins, and amassed just 112 scoreless yards on 15 targets.
But since Week 4, Diggs has played like a true alpha with 16-247-0 receiving on 19 targets and an extremely sexy 91 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
And last week specifically he impressed with 10-146-0 receiving on 12 targets, which was good for a top-five fantasy finish (19.6 points).
Will we see another 100-yard game from Diggs in Week 6?
It's well within the range of outcomes, especially against the Saints, who are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (55.9%, per FTN) and might be without three starters in their secondary: CB Isaac Yiadom (hamstring), SS Justin Reid (concussion), and FS Julian Blackmon (shoulder, IR).
Things are looking up for Diggs.
Rashid Shaheed Feels the Need for Week 6 Speed
I don't know who you are. I don't know what gets you excited. For all I know, you could be a real sicko.
If you are … here's something that might get your heart pumping: Going back to last year, Rashid Shaheed has 5+ opportunities in every game played.
That might not seem like a lot—but that's his floor … and he doesn't need much volume anyway to hit his ceiling, as we witnessed last week when he exploded for 4-114-1 receiving on five targets.
Shaheed has been deliciously efficient for his career as a receiver (10.2 yards per target) and runner (6.7 yards per carry), and he's always a threat to score a random TD as a returner (2023 first-team All-Pro).
The Saints are playing their second straight game at Caesars Superdome, where they'll have a nearly maximized home-field advantage against the Patriots, who play outdoors in a different division in a different conference.
Plus, the Pats are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (46.9%).
With someone as explosive and volatile as Shaheed, it's almost impossible to predict his peak performances, but the setup for this week is good.
Kendrick Bourne Offers Lowkey Week 6 Studliness
Every once in a while, a random WR for the 49ers will go off out of nowhere when multiple pass catchers ahead of him on the depth chart are injured.
- Richie James (Week 9, 2020): 9-184-1 receiving | 13 targets
- Jauan Jennings (Week 3, 2024): 11-175-3 receiving | 12 targets
Last week, that guy was Kendrick Bourne, who had an outstanding 10-142-0 receiving on 11 targets in the absence of WRs Jauan Jennings (shoulder, ankle) and Ricky Pearsall (knee) as well as TE George Kittle (hamstring, IR).
Given that neither Jennings nor Pearsall practiced last week, there's the real possibility that either or both of them could miss Week 6, which would once again put Bourne in the position of functioning as the No. 1 WR in the offense.
And if Jennings and Pearsall return? I still might like Bourne against the Buccaneers, who are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 3 WRs (45.9%) and dealing with injuries to CBs Jamel Dean (groin) and Benjamin Morrison (hamstring).
And what if No. 1 QB Brock Purdy (toe) doesn't suit up for the 49ers this weekend?
That's not a big deal: Backup QB Mac Jones has played well in relief of Purdy this season (905 yards, six TDs passing in three starts), and Jones and Bourne already have established #ShowerNarrative chemistry from their time together with the 2021-23 Patriots.
Regardless of whatever personnel situation the 49ers have in Week 6, I'm probably going to like Bourne more than most analysts do.
If available, you should consider adding Bourne on waivers, and I'd probably be fine with starting him in Guillotine Leagues™.
The Deep Route
Davante Adams (Rams) at Ravens: Adams has underperformed his usage (22-357-3 receiving on 44 targets, 82 Utilization Score), but this is a spot where he could go off. The Rams have three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football, the Ravens are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (36.1), and in their back seven they could be without four starters in LB Roquan Smith (hamstring), CBs Marlon Humphrey (calf) Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring), and SS Kyle Hamilton (groin).
Deebo Samuel (Commanders) vs. Bears: Samuel is one of just four WRs (along with studs Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Emeka Egbuka) with two top-five fantasy finishes through five games. WR Noah Brown hasn't practiced or played since Week 2; WR Terry McLaurin, Week 3—so I doubt either will return now. Without them, Samuel in Weeks 4-5 had 177 yards and two TDs on 17 targets, three carries, and a 91 Utilization Score. On the opposite side, No. 1 CB Jaylon Johnson (groin, IR) and slot CB Kyler Gordon (hamstring) haven't played at all this season, and the Bears are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (53.5%, per RBs Don't Matter).
Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs. Cowboys: The first-round rookie is the No. 2 WR in air yard share (48%) and No. 5 WR in WOPR (76%). He has a snap rate of at least 90% in each of the past three weeks. The Cowboys are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (38.2). The Panthers are consensus 3.5-point underdogs, but I have them as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life NFL Game Model. In the words of the Starks of Winterfell, "Winter is coming."
"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Ladd McConkey (Chargers) at Dolphins: McConkey has a lowly 59 Utilization Score, but he still leads the Chargers with a 91% route rate, and he could have an exceptional matchup in the slot, where the Dolphins could be down to a third stringer without starting CB Jason Marshall (hamstring, IR) and backup CB Cornell Armstrong (hamstring). It also doesn't hurt that perimeter CB Storm Duck (ankle) hasn't played since Week 1.
Brian Thomas (Jaguars) vs. Seahawks: After a substandard first two games (3.2 yards per target), Thomas has looked more like himself since Week 3 (191 scrimmage yards, 9.7 yards per target). The Jags are on short rest off Monday Night Football, but they get the benefit of playing their second straight home game, and the Seahawks—traveling east for an early 1 pm ET game—might be without CBs Devon Witherspoon (knee) and Tariq Woolen (concussion) and FS Julian Love (hamstring).
Calvin Ridley (Titans) at Raiders: Ridley returned to form in Week 5 with 5-131-0 receiving on 10 targets, and now he gets a Raiders defense that might be without CB Eric Stokes (knee). Backup CB Darien Porter is an unpolished third-round rookie with 54 NFL coverage snaps to his name.
Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Colts: This one is disgusting. Wilson has had no more than 16 yards in any game this season, and his efficiency (2.9 yards per target) is a disgrace to humanity. But Wilson is the team's primary guy in the slot, where the Colts might be without starting CB Kenny Moore (Achilles) and backup CB Mike Hilton (shoulder). In other words, Wilson might be able to get 20+ yards this week.
Notes
Byes: This week, the Vikings and Texans are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 5 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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