Week 8 WR Rankings: Keep Trusting Chris Olave
Matthew Freedman breaks down his favorite WRs in his Week 8 WR rankings.
It's Week 8.
Apple cider. Pumpkins. Fallen leaves.
An NFL-high six teams on bye.
As Thomas Paine once wrote almost 250 years ago: "These are the times that try fantasy football managers' souls."
Let's get into the Week 8 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my Week 8 fantasy rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 8 fantasy football plays.
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Week 8 Wide Receiver Rankings
Chris Olave Will Keep on Dominating in Week 8
After seeing strong volume (54 targets) but doing little with it (244 yards, one TD) in his first five games, Chris Olave has 11-196-2 receiving on 17 targets over the past two weeks, and he specifically broke out last week with a top-five position fantasy finish (24.3 points).
What has changed?
To start with, QB Spencer Rattler has become more aggressive in pushing the ball downfield (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
- Weeks 1-5: 7.4 aDOT
- Weeks 6-7: 10.2 aDOT
And that has resulted in an amplification of potential for Olave.
- Weeks 1-5: 8.8 aDOT | 35% air yards | 36% endzone targets
- Weeks 6-7: 15.5 aDOT | 45% air yards | 100% endzone targets
Over the past two weeks, Olave is the No. 4 WR in Utilization Score (92); for the season, No. 7 (83).
And now he's going against the Buccaneers, who have been dominated by every mid-sized perimeter No. 1 WR they've faced.
- Garrett Wilson (Week 3): 10-84-1 receiving | 13 targets
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Week 5): 8-132-1 receiving | 9 targets
- Kendrick Bourne (Week 6): 5-142-0 receiving, 9 targets
I expect that domination to continue this week.
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Alec Pierce Will Be an Air Yard Monster in Week 8
Let's get this out of the way: Alec Pierce is a boom-or-bust producer. That volatility makes him especially dangerous in Guillotine Leagues™, where a strong median and high floor are valuable.
That said … Pierce is the kind of player who appeals to me. He doesn't turn a lot of targets into receptions (52.7% catch rate for his career), but since last season the dude has been elite at turning opportunities into production (11.9 yards per target).
It's easy to belittle Pierce because of his lack of weekly consistency, but last year he actually led the Colts with 824 yards receiving, and now he's pacing for an even better season with a career-high 63.4 yards per game.
If he could simply see more targets every week, he might be a 1,000-yard receiver.
Well, last week—with WRs Josh Downs (concussion) and Ashton Dulin (chest) on the sideline and WR Adonai Mitchell (stupid fumble) pushed down the depth chart—Pierce had a career-high 10 targets, which he converted into 5-98-0 receiving.
And, frankly, he could've had a much bigger day, given that Pierce had a league-high 158 unrealized air yards last week. In fact, for the year he's the No. 6 WR in air yard share (44%).
Could he see similar usage again in Week 8? Maybe. Neither Downs nor Dulin practiced last week, which puts them on the doubtful side of questionable entering team activities, and Mitchell was a healthy scratch in Week 6 before the absence of Downs and Dulin pushed him into limited action in Week 7.
If Downs and Dulin are out again this week, Pierce could have another massive downfield performance against the Titans, who could be without No. 1 CB L'Jarius Sneed (quad).
Troy Franklin Upgrades Against the Cowboys in Week 8
If you look at Troy Franklin's production over the past two weeks, it looks nasty: 38 yards on six receptions. If not for a TD and a two-yard carry, his stat line since Week 6 would be fatally ugly and boring.
But over the past two games he has actually stacked up with No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton in usage.
- Franklin: 22% target rate | 21% target share | 35% air yards
- Sutton: 14% target rate | 18% target share | 26% air yards
And that bodes well for his matchup against the Cowboys, who are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+8.5).
On top of that, the Cowboys could be without starters CB Trevon Diggs (knee, concussion) and FS Juanyeh Thomas (migraine) in the secondary.
The Broncos are on the "wrong side of the hook" as 3.5-point favorites, and I still have them as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life NFL Game Model.
Tez Johnson Is Still Standing as a Week 8 Flier
Sometimes the best ability is availability, and that might be the case with Day 3 rookie Tez Johnson, who over the past three weeks has put up 9-162-2 receiving on 16 targets as injuries have pushed him up the depth chart.
No. 1 WR Mike Evans (collarbone) is out. No. 2 WR Chris Godwin (fibula) has been out since Week 6, and I'm skeptical he'll return this week. Capable depth WR Jalen McMillan (neck, IR) is nowhere near returning.
So that leaves Johnson to compete with WRs Emeka Egbuka and Sterling Shepard. Clearly, Egbuka is the best player of the three … but over the past two weeks without Godwin, the two rookies have been quite comparable in usage.
- Johnson: 53 Utilization Score | 77% route rate | 25% air yards | 40% endzone targets
- Egbuka: 52 Utilization Score | 76% route rate | 32% air yards | 40% endzone targets
It goes without saying, but Egbuka is unavailable in all but a handful of Guillotine Leagues™. Johnson, though, is available in almost every league, and he warrants waiver consideration as a desperado flier.
The Saints are No. 28 in defensive dropback DVOA (29.0%, per FTN), and CB Isaac Yiadom (hamstring) has been out since Week 5.
The Deep Route
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs. Commanders: The yardage total doesn't look great (42 yards), but in his first game back in over a year, Rice last week scored two TDs and racked up seven receptions on 10 targets. He's all the way back. The Commanders are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.3).
Rome Odunze (Bears) at Ravens: Odunze's production has fallen off since the Week 5 bye (4-63-0 receiving, 11 targets), but the utilization is still there (93% route rate, 41% air yards, 56% endzone targets). I expect him to regress toward his pre-bye numbers (20-296-5 receiving, 35 targets). The Ravens are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.230, RBs Don't Matter), and CB Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) might still be unavailable.
Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Jets: In his two games with QB Joe Flacco, HIggins has 11-158-1 receiving on 18 targets. Clearly, he's vibing with Flacco. The Jets are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (37.5%), and CBs Sauce Gardner (concussion) and Michael Carter (concussion) are both dealing with head injuries.
Keenan Allen (Chargers) vs. Vikings: The Vikings have a good overall defense … but they're No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (51.2%). Just based on the numbers—78 Utilization Score, 25% target share, 44-435-4 receiving—Allen is the team's No. 1 WR.
Josh Reynolds (Jets) at Bengals: No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson (knee) exited Week 6 early, and in his absence last week Reynolds had a top-10 snap rate (95%), and he leveraged that playing time into a strong 32% target share, 46% air yards, and 50% endzone targets. I doubt Wilson will return to action this week, and Reynolds could get an additional boost if the team switches to QB Tyrod Taylor, who as an underdog is an elite 23-12-3 ATS (24.5% ROI, per Action Network). The Bengals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.8%).
Xavier Hutchinson (Texans) vs. 49ers: He doesn't have more than four targets in any game this year … but this week he could see more action if Nos. 1-2 WRs Nico Collins (concussion) and Christian Kirk (hamstring) are out. Additionally, the 49ers might be without CBs Renardo Green (toe) and Upton Stout (shoulder).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) at Falcons: No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill (knee, IR) is long gone, and resurgent TE Darren Waller (pectoral) seems highly unlikely to suit up. Washington has 5+ targets in each of the past three games, and last week he had a career-high eight. On top of that, he gets regular work as a return man and runner (9-61-0 rushing this year). Washington lines up primarily in the slot, where the Falcons could be without CB Billy Bowman (hamstring), who has missed the past two games.
Notes For My Week 8 WR Rankings
Byes: This week, the Lions, Raiders, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Jaguars are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 8 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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