Which Broncos RB Should You Draft in Fantasy Football?

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:

As I try to sift through the noise of training camp, I’m looking for consistency to find signal.

For example, the buzz on Bucs rookie WR Jalen McMillan has come in a steady drip since OTAs and continued yesterday.

On the flip side, I recently highlighted the persistent negative vibes surrounding Kendre Miller.

The toughest situations to parse, though, are ones where we get contradictions. And right now, this Denver backfield situation is giving me whiplash.

Earlier this week, multiple Broncos beats speculated that Javonte Williams could be fighting for a roster spot with Samaje Perine. Then another beat said the Williams “obituaries were hilariously premature.”

Sean Payton then weighed in himself, mentioning a slimmed-down Williams stood out at practice and looked “real sharp.”

So where does that leave us? We can’t ignore this backfield. We know Payton offenses funnel targets to the backfield. There’s room for two backs to feast here. Unfortunately, there are three main contenders, including shifty space back Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie bruiser Audric Estime. All three backs have gotten hype to varying degrees this offseason.

I maintain it’s smart to be very price-sensitive on Williams right now, but I have zero issue taking stabs on all three of these guys considering they are all going in the double-digit rounds of drafts. One, if not two, should easily pay off their ADP.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Dwain McFarland’s QB Rankings & Tiers: Who falls into Tiers 2 & 3?
The perfect draft through the first 10 rounds on Yahoo! Fantasy
Watercooler: An RB sleeper in San Francisco

Quarterback Rankings and Tiers

by Dwain McFarland

Tier 2 – Dual-threats part deux

Anthony Richardson
Kyler Murray

Richardson only played in two complete games as a rookie, but he captured the hearts and imaginations of fantasy football players nationwide with a mouth-watering 25.3 PPG. Richardson handled 26% of the designed rush attempts in those two games, including 34% of the work inside the five-yard line (with scrambles).

Richardson has yet to demonstrate the passing upside of the QBs in Tier 1. His PFF pass grade of 56.5 was on par with names like Bryce Young and Daniel Jones. But imagine a world where that part of his game also comes alive in Year 2. That would make him a candidate to finish as the QB1 overall. The Colts love to use play action, and they added Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the NFL Draft.

If the passing maturation doesn't happen, oh darn, you are stuck with a mid-range QB1, which is Richardson's going price on most sites.

Kyler Murray teased us with 24.9 and 22.1 PPG in Years 2 and 3 but hasn't burned as hot over the last two seasons, at 18.4 and 18.7. Still, given the state of the Cardinals' offense when he took the helm last year, the 18.7 is borderline impressive. Murray only averaged 225 yards through the air but made up for it with 30.5 yards per game on the ground despite his late-season 2022 ACL injury.

With the breakout of Trey McBride and the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. via the No. 4 pick in the NFL draft, the Cardinals suddenly have a formidable one-two combo. Murray compiled 271 yards per game through the air in 2021, so we shouldn't dismiss his upside as a passer in an improved offense.

I have Murray projected conservatively at 234 yards per game, but that number could be way too low if he clicks with Harrison early. Few QBs possess the upside to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 600, and Murray is one of them.

Tier 3 – High-end pocket passers in loaded offenses

C.J. Stroud
Joe Burrow

Stroud erupted for 274 passing yards per game and 19.1 PPG as a rookie. Since 2011, here are the rookie pocket-passer QBs to reach 18.5 or higher:

Andrew Luck
Dak Prescott
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert

In seasons with at least eight games played, that group produced an average finish of QB8 with a top-12 PPG finish in 12 of 16 (75%) campaigns after their rookie year.

As with any pocket-passer, running pure in the TD department is critical to uncorking a high-end QB1 finish. Last season, Stroud tossed a score on 4.6% of his pass attempts – only slightly above the NFL average. However, the team added Stefon Diggs to go along with two emerging stars, Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Once you factor in Bobby Slowik as the OC (from the Kyle Shanahan tree), the ingredients are there for Stroud to take his game to the next level. I have Stroud projected for 28.5 passing TDs with 5.2% per attempt.

Joe Burrow delivered 20.6, 22.7 and 15.5 PPG over the last three years, but his 2023 marks come with an injury asterisk. Burrow injured his calf in July and re-aggravated it early in the season, which severely hampered his fantasy production.

Over the first four weeks, Burrow averaged a horrific 8.8 PPG. Starting in Week 5, Cincinnati found their groove, and Burrow returned to his usual self with 22.2 PPG with four top-eight finishes before suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11.

Zac Taylor runs a pass-friendly offense but is one of the less-inspiring offensive minds when unlocking upside via play action and motion. The Bengals ranked 25th in play action (21%) and were below the NFL average in motion at the snap (45%). Luckily, the Bengals boast one of the best WR tandems with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. If rookie Jermaine Burton finds his legs early, look out – Burrow could go nuclear.

Burrow is the consensus QB7 among our rankers in our fully customizable Tiers and Rankings tool, which is illustrated below as part of our FantasyLife+ offerings.

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The Perfect Draft: How to dominate the first 10 rounds on Yahoo!

by Peter Overzet

Round 1 - Elite RB

The biggest difference between managed and best ball leagues right now is how much earlier RBs go on sites like Yahoo and ESPN. On Underdog, you can start up to 4WRs, so locking up that pass-catching firepower is mandatory.

But in this specific format, not only can we start the same amount of RBs as WRs (2 + a flex), but the shaky RBs are going much higher in the early rounds while attractive WR targets are pushed down.

This leads me to wanting to lock up true bellcow backs in the early rounds at a fair price and then zagging away from the priced-up options in Rounds 3 and 4.

Locking up one of Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, or Jonathan Taylor would be my preference in Round 1.

Pete's perfect pick: Bijan Robinson

Generate your own simulated mock draft to practice putting together the PERFECT fantasy football draft by using our Draft Champion!

Round 2 - Elite RB

A similar dynamic unfolds in Round 2. While I do love Puka Nacua, the WRs going in Rounds 3,4, and 5 aren't that much different than the ones going in Round 2. This once again pushes me to lock up another RB with an elite ceiling.

The backs who also catch passes–Jahmyr Gibbs and Kyren Williams–would be my preference. But, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the plunge on Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, or Travis Etienne, either.

Pete's perfect pick: Jahmyr Gibbs

THE PERFECT PICKS IN ROUNDS 3-10

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

📺 ICYMI: Dwain is building his draft strategy for 2024 around two QBs. Can you guess who?

👀 Speaking of QBs, we brought in the big guns. John Daigle from ETR joins us to talk signal callers.

😨 I would personally not be taunting Patrick Mahomes. Just me, though.

🚀 Justin Fields highlights to Jaylen Warren? Yes please.

👀 Don’t forget about this RB2 in SanFran. Could be an elite handcuff.

💪 Hulk Hogan and Dan Campbell? Match made in heaven.

😆 Zack Moss next to two linemen is a funny image. Big boys.