Will Saquon Barkley Go For It?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM, will Saquon Barkley break the rushing record? Players with incentives in Week 18 and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
Week 18 is a messy week that requires fantasy gamers to stay on top of injuries, team motivations, coachspeak, and … the record books (see below).
The biggest question that looms large over this weekend’s action is whether Saquon Barkley will gun for 101 yards and Eric Dickerson’s all-time rushing record in a meaningless game vs. the Giants.
Let’s break down the pros and cons …
Pros: This is easy. It would be an incredible record to break. Dickerson set this record in 1984 and it has somehow lasted for 40 years despite legendary RBs like Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Barry Sanders coming close.
There’s also the added cherry on top of getting to set the record against the very team that drafted him and let him walk in free agency instead of paying him.
Cons: The Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations and would risk injury to both Barkley and the starting offensive line if they go record-chasing.
Verdict: I think you go for it. The Giants are so bad that they might be able to get this done by halftime. As we saw from Dan Campbell on MNF, there’s a benefit in keeping your team sharp before the playoffs.
Fortunately for fantasy purposes, this will be a fairly binary decision. If he goes, you know the floor is 101 yards, and if he doesn’t you can simply look elsewhere.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Contract Incentives: Everything you need to know for Week 18
- Watercooler: Who’s trending upward?
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Contract Incentives and Milestones: Everything You Need To Know
By Geoff Ulrich
Below I listed any player with an incentive worth watching, and how far they needed to go to reach that incentive.
I also listed any player within reach of a potential record.
Mike Evans, WR—Buccaneers
2025 escalator for an extra $3M
70 catches, 1,000 REC Yds, 10 TDs = $3M
$500,000 per playoff win (w/ 65% regular-season snaps)
Current: 65 receptions, 915 yards, 11 TDs
Needs: 5 receptions, 85 yards
Mike Evans had a BIG Week 17 and is now within earshot of hitting all his parameters for this crazy 3M milestone bonus.
First, he does have a $500,000 bonus per playoff win available to him, but it also has a 65% regular-season snap rate attached to it. Since he missed some games I’m not sure if he can technically reach the 65% snap rate (which I assume is tied to all regular-season games).
The big one though, and the one worth watching, is the $3M bonus he has for getting to 70 catches, 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 TDs. Just to be clear, he needs to hit all three of those or the $3M doesn’t get paid out. That’s pretty wild.
Update: After going for 8 rec, 97 yards, and 2 TDs in Week 17, Evans now needs just 5 receptions and 85 yards to hit all three of his milestones. The team is also in a must-win spot needing a win over the Saints to ensure they clinch the NFC South over Atlanta, which has the tiebreaker over the Bucs with two series wins.
Evans’ prop lines have already opened at 93.5 (8.5 yards above what he needs) on Underdog, which offers a Pick’Em contest.
You don’t want to bet against Evans and Mayfield combining for enough receptions/yards to hit the milestones Evans needs, but you do need to be mindful of the lines this week if betting on his prop.
A lot of what Evans actually needs has already been baked into these lines and the Buccaneers would love to rest him after he gets the yards and receptions needed.
Malik Nabers, WR—Giants
Rookie Receiving Leader/records
Current: 104 receptions
Record: 108 receptions (Bowers; 2024)
Needs: 4+ (Bowers will play Week 18)
Don’t look now but Malik Nabers can potentially steal some of the thunder away from Brock Bowers, who has dominated the rookie headlines this year (along with Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix).
Nabers is now only 4 receptions behind Bowers, who currently owns the rookie record for most receptions at 108. Nabers has been targeted relentlessly by Drew Lock the past two weeks and faces an Eagles team likely to rest some starters.
I expect Lock/Nabers to go after the record early in this spot and push Bowers.
Who Is Chasing 1,000 Yards In Week 18?
Below, I highlighted a group of receivers and RBs who are within reach of the elusive 1,000-yard milestone (and also likely to get a decent workload in Week 18). It’s often a good barometer for players who are trying to negotiate contracts and up their worth on the open market later on.
Rushing Yards
- J.K. Dobbins: 842 yards
- Jayden Daniels: 864 yards
- D’Andre Swift: 894 yards
- James Cook: 981 yards
Receiving Yards
- Tee Higgins: 858 yards
- Jordan Addison: 875 yards
- DJ Moore: 880 yards
- George Pickens: 900 yards
- Jakobi Meyers: 904 yards
- Mike Evans: 915 yards
- Jauan Jennings: 923 yards
- DK Metcalf: 939 yards
- Tyreek Hill: 939 yards
- Calvin Ridley: 941 yards
- Jameson Williams: 967 yards
- Nico Collins: 968 yards
- Davante Adams: 975 yards
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
👏 The Fantasy Life Show's Best of SiriusXM in 2024. Happy New Year!
📈 Upgrades and Downgrades. Who’s trending in the right direction for Week 18 and the playoffs?
👀 Oregon or Ohio State? Coach Gene breaks down today’s three-game College Football Playoff slate.
✋ The latest on Brock Purdy’s injury. Sounds painful.
😍 George Kittle is a good teammate. He tried to cheer up Jake Moody.
💪 This fantasy team won $1.5 million. Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins for all the money.
🤔 Is Zeke trying to sign with a SB contender? Interesting.
Happy New Year from all of us at Fantasy Life! We can’t wait to see what 2025 has in store. Hopefully more titles. We’re going to keep looking back in this space, but first we need to answer yesterday’s question. Russell Wilson was the missing active QB to have thrown 40+ TDs in a season.
Now, onto today’s trivia …
Trey McBride finally found the end zone in Week 17, scoring his first receiving touchdown in a season. He will officially avoid becoming the first 1,000-yard pass catcher with zero receiving scores, but three previous players have managed 1,000 yards with just one receiving TD. The last time was back in 2021, when this player pulled off the unlikely combo.
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