Using Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule in Guillotine Leagues: Reversing the dynamic
Paul Charchian breaks down how to use the fantasy football strength of schedule to your advantage in Guillotine Leagues, and it's not quite how you may think.
For years, you've been trained to scour the playoff schedule (Weeks 15-17) for each player, trying to identify guys with a primrose path to fantasy points in late December. That's all out the window.
At any given time, the vision of your roster should be no more than three or four weeks. In the preseason, your only concern is Weeks 1-4, at most. The early season schedule is 10 times more important than the late season schedule.
That's because you're going to churn 75%-100% of your roster throughout a guillotine league season.
Next, I'm about to show you a roster that got me to the championship last year. Am I using this opportunity for a mild humble brag? Sure, but more importantly, you'll see I had more churn than an Amish butter maiden.
Charch’s preseason roster vs championship roster:
August -> December
- QB: Matthew Stafford -> QB: Jalen Hurts
- RB: Miles Sanders -> RB: Christian McCaffrey
- RB: Brian Robinson -> RB: Aaron Jones
- WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown -> WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
- WR: A.J. Brown -> WR: A.J. Brown
- Flex 1: Adam Thielen -> Flex 1: Davante Adams
- Flex 2: Courtland Sutton -> Flex 2: Deebo Samuel
- TE: Darren Waller -> TE: Trey McBride
- Bench 1: Baker Mayfield -> Bench 1: James Conner
- Bench 2: Rashid Shaheed -> Bench 2: Zamir White
- Bench 3: Chase Brown -> Bench 3: Tee Higgins
- Bench 4: Jelani Woods -> Bench 4: Javonte Williams
- Bench 5: Deuce Vaughn -> Bench 5: Matthew Stafford
- Bench 6: Sean Tucker -> Bench 6: Courtland Sutton
Only two starters from my original draft, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown, were still starters by the championship week. Aside from Sun God and Brown, the only other player who stayed on my roster was Courtland Sutton. That's three out of 14 players, meaning I churned 79% of my roster.
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The easiest and hardest fantasy football schedules
Weeks 1-4
Hopefully, at this point, I've convinced you to narrow your vision to the first four weeks of the season. So, who has the best/worst schedules in the first month?
Easiest QB schedules in Weeks 1-4:
- Tampa Bay
- Detroit
- Pittsburgh
- Washington
Hardest QB schedules in Weeks 1-4
- Dallas
- LA Charger
- Baltimore
- Las Vegas
Easiest RB schedules in Weeks 1-4:
- LA Chargers
- Cleveland
- Pittsburgh
- Indianapolis
- Washington
Hardest RB schedules in Weeks 1-4:
- San Francisco
- Atlanta
- Arizona
- NY Giants
Easiest WR schedules in Weeks 1-4:
- Detroit
- Tampa Bay
- LA Rams
- Washington
- Green Bay
Hardest WR schedules in Weeks 1-4:
- Baltimore
- LA Chargers
- Las Vegas
- Jacksonville
- Cincinnati
- Tennessee
Easiest TE schedules in Weeks 1-4:
- Philadelphia
- Pittsburgh
- Detroit
- Denver
- Seattle
- Tennessee
- Tampa
Hardest TE schedules in Weeks 1-4:
- Cincinnati
- Las Vegas
- Baltimore
- NY Giants
- LA Chargers
- Dallas
These rankings are done using last year's defensive data, which isn't perfect for a new season, but it gives us a baseline.
Bye weeks
As a long-time fantasy industry professional, I'm supposed to make it sound like I care deeply about every possible nuance that could affect the outcome of my fantasy team. But if I'm being honest, in traditional leagues, fretting about bye weeks has ranked slightly below analyzing players' zodiac signs and biorhythms.
But, like so many elements of guillotine leagues, bye weeks are all different. Bye weeks are absolutely critical. Specifically, avoiding early bye weeks.
Why are early bye weeks so devastating? Because 18-team rosters are very thin and you may not have found a suitable replacement for that player in the first month.
There are two unfortunate scenarios that can occur with early bye weeks:
- One (or more?) of your key starters is on bye and the drop off to his replacement is significant. That's the kind of problem that will sink an otherwise good team.
- You're heading into Week 5 and have a key starter on bye. Normally, you want to save your FAAB early in the season. But, due to the early bye, you're forced to overpay to ensure that you can get a functional starter.
For me, players with a Week 5 or 6 bye lose at least one round of draft value. For convenience, here are those teams:
- Week 5 byes: Detroit, LA Chargers, Philadelphia, Tennessee
- Week 6 byes: Kansas City, LA Rams, Miami, Minnesota
Week 7 isn't quite as bad, since you'll have two more weeks to find affordable fill-ins at the position, but still, it's not ideal.
- Week 7 byes: Chicago and Dallas
There are no byes in Week 8, fortunately. And bye Week 9, you've had enough time to find a replacement.
The Guide to Guillotine Leagues Fantasy Football
- An Introduction to Guillotine Leagues
- What to Expect Week-to-Week in a Guillotine League
- Unique Challenges of a Guillotine League Draft
- Draft Day Mistakes to Avoid in a Guillotine League Draft
- Reversing the Strength of Schedule Dynamic in Guillotine Leagues
- The Perfect Fantasy Football Draft for Guillotine Leagues
- The Most Dangerous Fantasy Football Draft for Guillotine Leagues
- How to Manage your FAAB in a Guillotine League (Month by Month)
- Answering Strategy-Based Guillotine League Questions
