💥 2 Big Surprises From Bills/Rams

If you're reading this it's too late to draft Gabe Davis...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by KFC:

4 things we learned in the NFL opener
Smashes & Fades: QBs, RBs, WRs, & TEs for Week 1
Leave the Chicken to KFC: Matthew's Bold Call
Geoff's bets: Three Picks on BetMGM
Regression Session: Pitts & Harris
Top Value Plays: Roster Watch has you covered.
It's 9/9. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

It wasn't the prettiest game, but beggars can't be choosers.

Football is back and we were delighted to plenty of surprises and confirmations during the Bills 31-10 stomping of the defending Super Bowl Rams.

Here's what we learned last night...

🆕 The Rams have a new RB1. Most fantasy gamers were cautiously optimistic that Cam Akers would have fully returned to form after returning from an Achilles injury in the playoffs last year, but he only tallied 3 carries and 12 snaps compared to Darrell Henderson's 13 carries (and 5 targets) on 55 snaps. It's a massively concerning development for Akers, especially because rookie Kyren Williams got injured and Akers still didn't see an expanded role. Go ahead and do your victory laps, Hendo stans.

🗑️ Allen Robinson might be a bust. Despite a buzzy preseason, the Rams struggled to get their new WR addition involved. He ran a full compliment of snaps (65) and routes (48), but only saw 2 targets. We obviously don't want to overreact too much to one game, especially when Sean McVay is already on record saying he wants to get him more involved, but it's probably fair to say Robinson was being over-drafted in Round 4.

⭐ Cooper Kupp is exactly who we thought he is. One big reason Robinson flopped is because Kupp continued his scorched earth campaign right where he left off in 2021. He predictably turned a massive 15 targets into 13 receptions, 128 yards, and 1 TD. If there were any lingering concerns about regression or Matthew Stafford's elbow, feel free to discard those now.

🚀 Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis are going to have massive seasons. This shouldn't come as a surprise, but the Bills' offense ran through Diggs (8-122-1) and Gabe Davis (4-88-1). Davis was a polarizing player this entire offseason, but his performance last night was a great reminder of why we skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it's currently at.

PSA: We're going to seven days a week starting tomorrow.

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The best and the worst. Each week our Director of Analytics and Lead Fantasy Analyst Dwain McFarland gives you his data-backed Smashes and Fades.

💥 QB Smash

Jalen Hurts is my QB1 – four spots above Expert Consensus Rankings. Last season Detroit allowed 21.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last six games. The Eagles carry the sixth-highest implied total on the slate (26.25) per MGM and grade out as the No. 1 rushing and passing matchup based on the PFF SOS Metric.

Hurts has three legit passing weapons in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, and he was top-three in designed rushing attempts for QBs in 2021 (21%). Look for him to take advantage of the Lions’ defense in both aspects. That is what we call a SMASH!

🤚 QB Fade

Justin Fields could surprise fantasy managers in 2022, thanks to his upside as a rusher, but temper expectations in Week 1 against the 49ers. The Bears offer the lowest implied point total on the slate (17), and the San Francisco defensive line could dominate.

Chicago only has one starting offensive lineman with a PFF grade higher than 66.2 from 2021. Nick Bosa and company could make this a long day for Fields, who posted a 33.1 PFF passing grade against pressure – 17 percentage points below the three-year NFL average.

💥 RB Smash

Leonard Fournette scored 25.3 points per game in contests where he reached 70% or more of snaps in 2021. Giovani Bernard is questionable due to an ankle injury, and Rachaad White might not be ready to handle passing-down work, given the Bucs’ interior line woes.

Tampa sports the fourth-best implied total (26.5) against the Cowboys, who aren’t well equipped to stop the run game, with two starters sporting PFF run defense grades of 35 or worse. Fournette has eclipsed the RB1 18% target rate threshold every season (20%); he will be involved in the passing game.

I have Fournette ranked four spots ahead of consensus.

🤚 RB Fade

Breece Hall is an explosive RB with passing-game chops, but this preseason we saw a 50/50 split with Michael Carter. The Jets are seven-point dogs against the Ravens – a massive number for a home game – and offer the third-worst implied point total (18.75).

Hall handled much of the short-down-distance (SDD) work this preseason, but the passing-game role is unclear. We could see Carter lead the way, which is the role you want in a trailing script. Hall’s time could come soon, but he is bench-worthy in Week 1.

💥 WR Smash

Marquise Brown and Kyler Murray should be forced to pass as six-point underdogs against the Chiefs in the game with the highest total (53.5). Zach Ertz hasn’t practiced this week, leaving Brown and Rondale Moore as the top-two options with DeAndre Hopkins suspended.

Brown has shown an ability to demand targets (23% target share) on a level similar to D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin. Still, fantasy managers often don’t think of him in the same conversation. Don’t make that mistake – Brown comes in hot as my WR14 – four spots ahead of consensus.

🤚 WR Fade

Drake London is battling a knee injury and is considered a game-time decision against the Saints. That isn’t a good recipe for a rookie who draws the sixth-toughest matchup per the PFF WR/CB Matchup tool.

The Falcons also offer the second-worst implied point total at 18.5, providing us with one final reason to leave London on our bench in Week 1.

💥 TE Smash

Dallas Goedert faces off against a Lions squad that allowed 18.8 points per game to TEs over the final six contests in 2021. The Eagles’ tight end profiles similarly to George Kittle and Darren Waller in terms of PFF receiving grade (90.5) and yards per route run (2.34) but doesn’t get the same respect.

The Eagles have multiple mouths to feed and could continue to run the ball, but Goedert has the talent to pop in any game environment. He ranks two spots ahead of consensus in my Week 1 ranks.

🤙 The RB you need to put on the trade block. Good luck, lol.

📅 Will Chris Godwin play Sunday? It's going to be a close call.

🎧 The Fantasy Life Podcast is Live! Matthew Berry & Marcas Grant kick things off to get you ready for Sunday.

🤪 The most insane draft we've ever seen. This is legit.

📈 Good news on the star rookie RB. He should be back sooner rather than later.

😊 An update on CMC's "injury"...He's fine, everyone relax.

🌟 The Week 1 Superstar. You can't fade him, though don't forget about the rookies.

It's time for @MatthewBerryTMR’s "leave the chicken to @kfc" bold call! #ad
Vikings fans will want to hear this 👀
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Sep 8, 2022

In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM

😎 Trey Lance over 248.5 passing + rushing yards -110

Lance is a player I’d be looking to go over on lots early in the season. Lance averaged 12 rushes and 60 yards on the ground over the two games he started last season and went over this combined passing/rushing total comfortably on each occasion.

Even in an easy win over the Texans in Week 17 he still attempted eight rushes. A plethora of big-play receivers and a Bears defense that allowed an average of 7.6 yards per pass attempt (fifth-worst in the league in 2021) means there are multiple ways he can get there for us on this prop for Week 1. Go over while his prop totals are still civil.

🥵️ Eagles -4.0 at Detroit Lions -110

As much as I like the feistiness of the Detroit Lions, I also don’t mind fading the hype that their appearance on Hard Knocks has created. Philadelphia added strength at multiple positions in the off-season, and the Lions had no answer for the 46 rush attempts the Eagles fed them in a 44-6 Week 8 loss last year.

Even if the Lions somehow slow down Jalen Hurts on the ground, there’s now AJ Brown to worry about. The Lions top corner Jeff Okaduh allowed a 121.9 passer rating against last year, and their secondary as a whole was consistently pulverized by elite WR1s.

From a betting standpoint, I also like the fact Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni covered easily in Week 1 last year (despite being a first-time head coach – who are generally terrible to bet in Week 1’s), and that his team also covered after the bye week in Week 15 against a division opponent. Take the Eagles, who should probably be closer to TD favorites.

🐎 Matt Ryan over 0.5 interceptions +160

Houston’s secondary may not grade out highly, but they were opportunistic in 2021, creating 17 interceptions on the season despite being thrown against at one of the lowest rates in the league. They added major corner talent in Derek Stingley and a defensive guru in Lovie Smith as head coach for 2022.

Matt Ryan has posted double-digit interceptions in four straight seasons now and threw 12 last year despite attempting just 560 passes, his lowest total since 2009. The number here looks inflated due to the negative perception of Houston and the fact Ryan is a former MVP.

🌋Three-way Parlay (via BetMGM)

Eagles -4 -109
Matt Ryan over 0.5 Ints +160
Trey Lance over 248.5 pass/rush yards -111
Parlay Odds of +843

Playing the best players is easy enough, but value is where it's at in DFS. Every other week Alex from Roster Watch will be dropping by the Fantasy Life offices to give you his top DFS values of the week.

💲 Dameon Pierce, RB Texans ($4800 DraftKings; $5400 FanDuel):

The preseason's buzziest player was given his pricing for this week before he was cemented as the Texans' starter and before fantasy managers got a glimpse at the type of efficient weapon Pierce can be when Houston did sparingly deploy him.

Based on his assumed role, he's underpriced on both main DFS sites by at least $1000 of salary. Pierce was the clear RB standout at this year's Senior Bowl and was our No.3 rookie back in the 2022 class at RosterWatch before the NFL Draft even happened.

Though we have yet to see it on an NFL field, there is also hidden upside in Pierce as a pass-catcher. The matchup versus the Colts and projected game script as an underdog are not as good as you'd hope for, but these detractions are already more than baked into Pierce's paltry price.

💲 MICHAEL PITTMAN, WR COLTS ($5500 DraftKings):

He's just too cheap on DraftKings. The Texans present a beautiful matchup for opposing WRs (top-3 on the RosterWatch Week 1 Matchup Tool), and Pittman has obviously gotten a major upgrade in QB from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan.

Even if we were relying on traditional stats like projected targets, he would be a steal at $5500 given the matchup. But consider this: per PlayerProfiler.com, Pittman was the No.3 receiver in the NFL last season in total route wins and No.4 in route win rate. With a new QB who can deliver the mail more accurately when those route-running wins occur in 2022, this is likely the cheapest price you'll see for Pittman all season.

For more from Roster Watch, check out Roster Watch Pro and their full suite of content and tools.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

📈Positive Regression - Kyle Pitts

Pitts saw 107 targets, including 14 inside the red zone, yet he scored just 1 TD last season. Per PFF, his usage suggests he should have scored closer to 6 TDs on the year. If he had scored 6 times, but everything else was the same from last season, Pitts would have finished as the TE3 and would be going even higher in drafts.

Not only should Pitts role continue to grow in year 2, but his TD rate should also naturally regress back towards league average (and could be much better than average), which will give him a big boost and makes a season as the overall TE1 more likely than many people realize.

📉 Negative Regression - Damien Harris

On the other side of the coin, Harris ran remarkably hot on TD efficiency last season. He had 202 carries and finished with 15 rushing TDs, which was tied for second in the league. By comparison, the league leader in rushing TDs, Jonathan Taylor, had 18 on 332 carries.

Harris did have a very valuable role for the Patriots, which saw him receive 30 carries inside the 10-yard line, but he still significantly outperformed his 10 expected rushing TDs for the season.

I have made no secret of my love for Rhamondre Stevenson this year, but even if Harris holds onto the lead job, we should not expect him to repeat what he did from a scoring perspective. If Harris gets off to a hot start in the TD department, he will be a great candidate to trade away before regression inevitably brings his value back down to earth.