š¤Æ 2 More Big Coach Moves!
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we preview the rankings and tiers for Wild Card Weekend, two more massive coaching changes, and Freedman's Favorites for this weekend.
Your favorite head coach no longer has a jobā¦
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:
- The Seahawks & Patriots say bye to their coaches
- Wildcard Weekend Rankings & Tiers: Fire up this RB and WR
- The Giants coaches are fighting
- Freedmanās Favorites: Big names to bet on
- Itās 1/11. Take it away, Peter Overzetā¦
And then Wednesday and Thursday said, āHold my beerā¦ā with two legendary coaches, Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll, parting ways with their long-time teams.
The Belichick newsāwhich broke early this morningāwas widely anticipated, yet still feels seismic.
Belichick coached the Patriots for 24 seasons and won 17 AFC East titles and six Super Bowl rings during that span.
With Belichick only 15 wins behind Don Shulaās NFL record of 347 wins, itās all but a lock that heāll be looking to keep coaching somewhere else. The Atlanta Falcons are the most popular destination being floated right now.
The piece of coaching news that came as a true shock, though, was in Seattle:
Carroll isnāt being completely shown the door, though. Heāll be sliding into an āadvisory roleā with the Seahawks.
Carroll leaves his position as Head Coach with 14 seasons (137-89-1 overall record) and 10 playoff appearances under his belt, as well as the franchiseās only Super Bowl Championship.
Similar to Vrabel, Carroll is beloved by many in the football world:
For fantasy football players, Carrollās steadfast commitment to establishing the run despite fielding the best 3-WR set in football was often very frustrating. And yet itās clear that his teams loved playing for him.
Unfortunately, it doesnāt seem like we will get a huge philosophical shift in Seattle with rumors that Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is a frontrunner for the job.
As Hayden notes here, the organization would be very wise to track down a forward-thinking playcaller to complement Quinn.
Whoever takes over gets to battle with a perennially tough division year in and year out.
We are officially set up for the most wild coaching offseason in recent memory.
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It is time to make those DFS and drafting decisions for Wildcard Weekend. Below youāll find Dwainās thoughts on two players set up for a big week. Find all of our positional rankings here.
š„ Running Back
š„Ā Tier 2 - Isiah Pacheco
Over the first eight weeks of the season, Pacheco played 54% of the Chiefs snaps and accounted for 57% of the rushing attempts. However, that has picked up down the stretch as the Chiefs completely turned over the backfield to the former Round 7 NFL Draft pick. Over his last six games, Pacheco has a 71% snap share and has bogarted 78% of the rushing attempts.
While those are substantial numbers, Pachecoās evolution as a passing-down option has unlocked his RB1 potential. With Jerick McKinnon sidelined in Weeks 12, 16 and 17, the second-year back handled 100% of the two-minute offense and enjoyed target shares of 16%, 13% and 26%. Over those three games, he averaged 23 fantasy points.
This weekend, Pacheco faces a Miami defense that has lost Jaelen Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Jerome Baker since Thanksgiving. The team will also be without the replacements for Phillips and Chubb ā Cameron Goode (IR) and Andrew Van Ginkel.
The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites in a game where weather could impact playcalling tendencies. The forecast calls for a temperature of 10 degrees at kickoff. Look for Pacheco to get as much work as he can handle, including work in the passing game.Ā
One of my favorite bets over at DraftKings is over 3.5 receptions (-110) ā a number he has beaten in every game without McKinnon.
Pacheco is a SMASH play this weekend as my No. 6 player overall and RB3.
š„Ā Wide Receiver
š„Ā Tier 2 - Amari Cooper
In three full games with Joe Flacco, Cooper has averaged 12.3 targets (29%) and 192 air yards (48%) on his way to an astronomical 28.9 fantasy points per contest. Whoa.
The ninth-year veteran didnāt suit up over the season's final two games due to a heel injury, but Cooper indicated that he is ready to go this weekend ā despite sitting out practice on Wednesday.
Since Flacco took over the starting job, the Browns have been a pass-heavy operation with a 5% dropback rate over expectation (DBOE). That trend is likely to continue. The Texans have been stingy against the run, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per contest (97), but teams have found passing much more manageable. Houston ranks 25th against the pass, allowing 255 yards per contest. In Week 16, Cooper roasted the Texans secondary for 265 yards and two TDs, corralling 11 of 15 targets.
Cooper is a SMASH play on Super Wild Card Weekend, ranking in my top eight players ā seven spots ahead of industry consensus.
ALL of the Wildcard rankings you NEED
š»Ā The Bears shake up their coaching ranks. What does this mean for Justin Fields?
šŗ Line movement, teasers, best bets, and more.Ā Your key to Wild Card Weekend.
šĀ An inside look at the McDaniel family. Very cool of them to share this with everyone.
šļøĀ Will Sam LaPorta play this weekend?Ā Hereās an update.
šļøĀ Aaron Rodgers is done on the Pat McAfee Show. Hereās the scoop.
š° Can you trust the Chiefs? Are the Rams the perfect underdog?Ā Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend.
āļø Speaking of betsā¦we have them flowing in for Wild Card weekend, plus NBA and NHL games, all for free!
š¬Ā Do you trust the Dolphins in cold weather?Ā You shouldnāt.
š„Ā The Giants coaches are fighting. What a messā¦and now Wink is gone.
š¤Ā The Bills are ready to run the table. Seems like it.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called āFreedmanās Favoritesā. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding āNoā. Anyway, here are his favorites for Wildcard Weekendā¦
š Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Lions
- Rams: +3.5
- O/U: 51.5
- TT: 24 (No. 3)
āHow all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!ā
This isnāt the best of travel spots for the Rams, who go East three time zones for their third consecutive game away -- but Stafford is hardly a visitor at Ford Field, where he played 83 games with the 2009-20 Lions.
And now the prodigal son returns home -- to torch a defense thatās No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.4 FPPG).
Inactive last week, Stafford should be fresh off the Week 18 pseudo bye, and since the return of No. 1 RB Kyren Williams in Week 12 revitalized the Rams running game, Stafford has 1,705 yards and 15 TDs passing to just three INTs in six games, all of which have seen the Rams score 26-plus points.
Playing indoors, the Rams are likely to go off, and I have a bet on them at +3.5 in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
šĀ DeāVon Achane (Dolphins) at Chiefs
- Dolphins: +4
- O/U: 44
- TT: 20 (No. 11)
Given the weather forecast for Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium -- near zero degrees with wind approaching double digits -- the Dolphins could lean on their running game more than they usually do.
And that would likely benefit Achane, who has 465 yards and four TDs on 64 carries, 25 targets, a 51% snap rate, and a 55% route rate in six games since returning in Week 13 from a knee injury (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
And in his nine games with a snap rate of at least 35%, Achane has looked like the second coming of Chris Johnson with 983 yards and 11 TDs on 101 carries and 35 targets. His talent is unreal.
No. 1 RB Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) is uncertain to play after missing the past two games, and in his absence, Achane has functioned as the lead back for the Dolphins with 198 yards and two TDs on 30 opportunities and a 54% snap rate since Week 17.
The Chiefs are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.034).
šĀ Jayden Reed (Packers) at Cowboys
- Packers: +7.5
- O/U: 51.0
- TT: 21.75 (No. 8)
No. 1 WRĀ Christian Watson (hamstring) last played in Week 13, and he seemed to suffer a setback last week after practicing limitedly on Wednesday and Thursday but not at all on Friday.
Watson could miss yet another game, and in his absence (Weeks 1-3 & 14-18), Reed has 464 yards and six TDs on 50 targets and five carries in seven games, and thatās despite missing Week 16 and being limited since Week 12 with chest, toe, and ankle injuries.
For the season, Reed has 912 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs, and since the Week 6 bye, he has 704 yards and eight TDs on 67 targets and 10 carries in 11 games. Even as a rookie, Reed gives off lowkey prime 2014Ā Randall Cobb vibes.
Playing mainly in the slot, Reed should match up for most of the game with CB Jourdan Lewis, who has a career-worst 43.0 PFF coverage grade this year and is the clear weak link in an otherwise strong Cowboys secondary.
