🎭 2 Star WRs Stir Up Drama
In today's Fantasy Life newsletter, the team dives into Stefon Diggs drama in Buffalo, 2 rookie WR sleepers and the Colts 2023 fantasy outlook.
I’ll never forget those 24 hours when we thought Stefon Diggs was going to hold out…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Fantasy Life’s Best Ball Hub:
- What is Stefon Diggs mad about?
- 2 rookie WR sleepers
- QB Passing Totals: 2 bets to make
- Team Preview: Indianapolis Colts
- It’s 6/15. Take it away, Peter Overzet
The NFL is the best soap opera we have, and yesterday two-star WRs gave us plenty of fodder to discuss in fantasy land…
🧘 Diggs is back at practice (you can exhale)
Just days after Bills head coach Sean McDermott was “very concerned” about Stefon Diggs missing the team’s mandatory minicamp, the situation seemed to resolve itself yesterday after Diggs returned to the team.
It looks like nothing meaningful will come out of this other than another classically cryptic social media post to add to the Diggs canon:
I think everyone needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror and ask themselves this question:
Am I the ‘big dawg’??
✈️ Hopkins to New England?
The Athletic’s Jeff Howe reported “there’s optimism” that the Patriots and DeAndre Hopkins can reach an agreement on a contract after a recent visit.
The Patriots clocked in at No. 4 of Ian’s top landing spots for Hopkins, projecting his rank at WR27 if he were to head to New England.
He’s currently being drafted as WR22 on Underdog as drafters attempt to balance the risk of him going to a lesser offense like New England or Houston while also baking in the chance that he could land on an elite offense the Bills or Chiefs. The latter, however, seems less and less likely by the day.
Nuk would be great for Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense on the whole and would likely command a grip of targets, but it’s, unfortunately, one of the least exciting landing spots for fantasy.
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💸 An NFL player lost $8 million from gambling? That’s a lot.
💤 A couple of deep rookie WR sleepers emerge. One in Pitt, one in Arizona.
📈 Is a bounceback in store for this sophomore? Could be.
🔥 Ja’Marr Chase throws shade at the best QB in football. Pat who??!
🔚 Who will be the Commanders’ QB this year? Jahan Dotson says it’s settled.
💪 Can Anthony Richardson become a complete QB? He’s working on it.
📺️ Who wants to be on Hard Knocks?? Anyone…
It’s futures season as BetMGM has started to drop season-long player totals on the sportsbook that give us a chance to chase or fade our biggest convictions. Let’s see what Geoff has flagged for us…
Today we’ll be focusing on player passing yardage and seeing which quarterbacks make the grade as over or under targets. If you want to find more potential targets, check out the Fantasy Life Projections page where every quarterback has a season-long total.
🔮 Bryce Young Over 3299.5 passing yards -115
Young fell to a Panthers team that ranked just 28th in offensive pass DVOA in 2022 but who also underwent drastic off-season changes – most of which should be positive.
New Head Coach Frank Reich is a former quarterback who made a point to surround Young with talent, bringing in veterans D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen to occupy key roles. Early draft capital was also spent on a potential after-the-catch stud in WR Jonathan Mingo.
Carolina’s O-Line held up well in pass protection last season, but as Dwain McFarland noted in his profile of Young, Young thrived under pressure at Alabama as well.
Among the 146 QBs who registered at least 100 dropbacks under pressure, Young ranked sixth in passing grade on his 370 dropbacks under pressure.
He delivered an eye-popping 26 TDs and only six INTs under duress, and his 8.4 YPA was sterling in comparison to the 6.1 YPA average of his peers.
- Dwain McFarland
Young’s current yardage total indicates a more conservative season – and baking in some heightened injury risk – but ignoring the upside of his landing spot. The Fantasy Life projections agree as they have Young set at 3430.40 yards, which would potentially blow his current line out of the water.
If you’re targeting futures, jumping on his yardage total early makes sense as the rookie fear works to hold his total at an artificially low number over the summer.
🔮 Daniel Jones Over 3199.5 passing yards -115
The Giants were conservative in the passing game in 2022, ranking just 24th in yards per pass attempt. The training wheels were on in Brian Daboll’s first season as head coach, but we should see the play-calling loosen up in year two.
New York spent a third-round pick to bring in more speed in WR Jalin Hyatt, a track star who averaged 18.9 yards per catch in his final year of college. Darren Waller also gives them added athleticism at TE. Waller’s aDOT over the last three seasons was around 10.0 which is more than double what 2022 starter Daniel Bellinger was able to produce in a starting role.
Josh Allen’s passing production was able to progress nicely in his second and third seasons in Brian Daboll’s offense. So, with the added weaponry, there is no reason to think Daniel Jones’ numbers won’t see an uptick in his second full season with Daboll as well.
Jones’ total is currently set at over 3300 yards in Fantasy Life season-long projections, which suggests we should have a nice cushion to work with on an over bet – even if injury issues arise. He’s another solid early summer target if you’re looking to lock in some futures before camp starts.
Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Colts, who enter the year with a new franchise QB…
🏈 RBs
- Jonathan Taylor (Ian’s RB8)
- Deon Jackson (RB94)
- Zack Moss (RB99)
Taylor’s workload didn’t change all that much in 2022. He averaged 17.9 expected PPR points per game in 2021 vs. 15.3 last season; the main difference was that the Colts’ 30th-ranked scoring offense struggled to yield him the same sort of fantasy-friendly goal-line opportunities.
Overall, Taylor’s 26 rush attempts inside the five-yard line were nine more than the next-closest player in 2021, but last season he managed just eight goal-line carries in 11 injury-riddled contests. The campaign was largely considered a disappointment considering Taylor almost always went inside any fantasy draft’s top-two picks; just realize the offensive environment was the primary culprit.
On the one hand, Taylor could experience improved health in 2022, and it’d make sense if PFF’s reigning 18th-ranked offensive line plays a bit better after regressing last season.
On the other hand, the history of dual-threat QBs enabling fantasy-friendly teammates is not good.
There’s plenty of evidence of high-volume dual-threat QBs engineering fantastic real-life offenses, but even in those situations, we’ve seen the available backfield opportunities leave a lot to be desired. Just look at the Ravens, Eagles, Bills and Seahawks.
Steichen was also happy to oversee committee backfields during his time in Philly. It’s unlikely that Jackson or Moss take away any level of meaningful work from Taylor, although the rising fourth-year back’s usage doesn’t have anywhere to go but down considering interim head coach Jeff Saturday was willing to leave him on the field for virtually the entire game.
Ultimately, I can’t get behind Taylor’s standing as the RB4 over at Underdog Fantasy due to the likely lack of 1.) TD upside in the league’s reigning 30th-ranked scoring offense, and 2.) Newfound lack of pass-game and goal-line opportunities due to the presence of Anthony Richardson under center.
Guys with lower ADP like Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard arguably have higher volume ceilings and definitely exist in better overall offensive environments.
What about the QBs, WRs, and TEs?
PLUS, you can watch or listen to Ian & Dwain breaking down the whole Colts team.
