It's Breece Hall SZN, y'all...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:

• Six RBs on opposite ends of the spectrum.
• The Utilization Report. Four big upgrades.
• Premiere Matchup. QB1 vs. QB2, baby!!!
• A New RB1 in Town? The Fantasy Life Podcast is LIVE!
• Is Patrick Mahomes a mere mortal?
• It's 9/28. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

It's hump day, so let's get some momentum heading down that hill towards the weekend and another slate of NFL action!

Before we dive into all the utilization goodies and matchup greatness, let's take a moment to recognize how important talent is in the fantasy football equation. Volume is king, but the best players can maximize opportunities via efficiency.

🚀 3 RBs who are playing at an insane level.

Each of these backs is in a time-share, but per PFF premium stats, they might deserve more opportunities and could boom if that happens.

✅ Nick Chubb (62 attempts)

• Missed tackles forced: 0.42 (2nd of 30 RBs with at least 30 attempts)
• Average yards after contact: 3.97 (4 of 30)
• Explosive rush rate (10-plus yards): 16% (7 of 30)

✅ Aaron Jones (32 attempts)

• Missed tackles forced: 0.50 (1 of 30)
• Average yards after contact: 4.25 (3 of 30)
• Explosive rush rate: 22% (2 of 30)

✅ Javonte Williams (37 attempts)

• Missed tackles forced: 0.32 (3 of 30)
• Average yards after contact: 3.57 (7 of 30)
• Explosive rush rate: 16% (6 of 30)

🆘 3 RBs who aren't maximizing touches.

Two out of three of these RBs are in full-time roles but aren't adding much value to their rushing attempts.

⚠️ Joe Mixon (58 attempts)

• Missed tackles forced: 0.10 (29 of 30)
• Average yards after contact: 1.90 (30 of 30)
• Explosive rush rate: 3% (29 of 30)

⚠️ Najee Harris (40 attempts)

• Missed tackles forced: 0.15 (26 of 30)
• Average yards after contact: 2.50 (25 of 30)
• Explosive rush rate: 8% (24 of 30)

⚠️ A.J. Dillon (40 attempts)

• Missed tackles forced: 0.13 (27 of 30)
• Average yards after contact: 2.63 (23 of 30)
• Explosive rush rate: 8% (24 of 30)

Stefon Diggs put the NFL world on notice over the first three weeks this season by exploding for a league-leading 344 receiving yards and four TDs.

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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

Sell High

⚠️ RB – Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Edwards-Helaire has yet to eclipse 45% of snaps, rushing attempts or route participation – substantial red flags for a player touting a top-5 fantasy ranking. Jerick McKinnon has demanded more snaps each of the last two weeks.

We don’t want to give CEH away – he plays on an offense with a high-caliber QB in Patrick Mahomes, and his role could expand if McKinnon were to get injured. However, if someone in your league is willing to look at fantasy points blindly, now is the time to sell.

Buy Low

💰 QB – Kyler Murray

Yeah, we have concerns about Kliff Kingsbury’s ability to design an optimal offense, but it is hard to top a mobile QB in a pass-happy offense. Murray still ranks No. 8 in designed-rush attempts (11%) and should finish closer to 15% on the season. His scrambles are at a career-low 3%, which should also improve as the season progresses. 

The Cardinals’ weaponry will improve over the coming weeks with the return of Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins. 

Now is the time to pounce on a top-six QB.

Upgrades

📈 RB – Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson pushed his edge over Damien Harris to new heights with 50% of the rushing attempts in Week 3. He also handled most of the passing downs, including all of the two-minute offense, on his way to a pristine 64% route participation.

His 20.1 fantasy points were not a fluke with this utilization profile and his strong efficiency data. Ty Montgomery (IR) could regain some of the passing work when he returns, but for now, Stevenson is in great shape.

This profile is RB1 material, but we always have to be careful with New England, who loves to confuse fantasy managers, making him a high-end RB2 for now.

📈 RB – Breece Hall

Hall (51%) slightly edged out Michael Carter (49%) in snaps for the first time this season. He also hit a season-high in route participation (50%) while bogarting most of the long-down-distance (81%) and two-minute offense (63%).

Hall’s TPRR (33%) is elite, and he is delivering a 10-plus yard rush on 19% of his attempts – almost double the NFL average of 10.5%. Carter should remain involved, but the better season-long bet is Hall and his second-round draft capital. 

Hall offers a low-end RB2 utilization score, but the rookie has a top-12 talent profile and could explode down the stretch.

📈 WR – Chris Olave

Great players earn targets, and Olave is off to a fantastic start. He has 33% and 34% target shares in the last two games and is heavily involved downfield (62% and 40% of air yards). Michael Thomas left the game with a toe injury, and Jarvis Landry suffered a foot injury. Neither is considered serious, but Olave could be the primary beneficiary if they miss time.

Olave’s utilization screams WR2, and he is THE WR to roster in New Orleans.

📈 WR – DeVonta Smith

Smith didn’t score a point in Week 1 but has a WR25 and WR1 finish since then. The Eagles aren’t the same run-heavy offense that many fantasy prognosticators feared. Philadelphia has leaned to the run in close scripts but has thrown the ball above the league average in trailing and leading scenarios.

Let this be a reminder – we want to lean into talented profiles and not overestimate our ability to know what a coaching staff will do. The Week 3 WR1 has a 24% target share on the season and a 2.13 YPRR. Expect 60-75% of the targets to go to A.J. Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert in a highly concentrated attack.

Smith is a low-end WR2 moving forward.

Downgrades                                        

📉 WR – D.J. Moore

I wish I could put on my brave face and tell y’all to buy low on Moore. Unfortunately, Baker Mayfield and Ben McAdoo make that a challenging statement despite Moore’s strong talent profile.

This offense has 145, 235, and 170 yards passing over the first three contests with only three TD passes. Mayfield owns the lowest PFF passing grade (45.7) out of all QBs, with at least 100 dropbacks in 2022.

Moore’s fate rests on the shoulders of Mayfield, pushing him into WR3/Flex territory.

 😱 Things don't get easier for Christian McCaffrey. Yikes, what a schedule.

 🎱 Will this be a season-long trend in 2022? Reply hazy, try again.

🥇 You get a rookie WR. You get a rookie WR. He is available everywhere.

⬆️ These two RBs are on the way up. Marcas & Dwain break it down on the Fantasy Life Podcast

📊 Which WRs are over/underperforming most? A visual aid for the ages. 

🐆 Is Patrick Mahomes looking human post-Cheetah? Tough matchup on tap.

👐 The next great Giants WR. She should fit right in. 

Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen tackles the tilt between the Bills and Ravens.

Everyone circled this game at the start of the season. It’s Josh Allen against Lamar Jackson. You don’t have to dig any deeper to find any intrigue. Both have evolved over the last year, with Jackson headlining the MVP conversation. But after Week 3, this game may not be the prize fight we expected.

My DMs are open if somebody knows where I can turn injuries off in NFL games. They’ve made the Bills look mortal. The same team who dominated the Super Bowl champions in Week 1 got (literally) beaten down in Miami. If you don’t believe me because the score was close, look at Allen.

Tua consoling Josh Allen

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS)
Sep 25, 2022

Miami ran 39 plays on Sunday. The Bills had 89. Allen’s 63 attempts were the most of any quarterback since Eli Manning in 2016. And Buffalo did all of this in 89-degree weather with 63% humidity. Ken Dorsey was the only member of the Bills with any energy left after the game. However, there were some positives.

The “spread and shred” approach is key to Buffalo’s passing game. They were top-5 using 11 and 10-personnel packages last year alone, with Allen looking to land a haymaker every time. He had the second-most deep attempts with 4 WRs on the field. However, as defensive coverages shifted to remove the explosive plays, Allen needed to adjust. As a result, we saw more personnel getting into the mix.

Bills’ running backs combined for 19 targets on Sunday. As a group, they came into Week 3 with 14. Even blocking TE Quintin Morris got two catches. It’s a simple but important change. Allen is taking the layups. 

He has an answer if teams blitz or move into two-high looks.

With the personnel changing, Allen’s confidence in the offensive game plan is critical. And so far, it’s working. It may not have resulted in a victory, but we should be “process over results” oriented. Plus, they’ll need to do all they can to keep up with Lamar.

Other than some version of “pay him,” I’ve got nothing to add here.

Baltimore’s offseason moves signaled they were moving back to a run-first offense. They jettisoned Marquise Brown while fortifying their line and defense. Their WR room had a career total of 173 targets across four players. And yet, they’re third in Pass Rate Above Expectation. 

Jackson looks unstoppable. The whole offense does.

I can’t find a positive metric without Baltimore in the Top 10. They’re among the league leaders in EPA per play, yards per drive, and points per drive. Jackson co-leads the league in touchdowns on deep attempts while the Ravens’ offense is above average in red-zone plays. They’ve found even more ways to exploit defenses.

The Bills ran zone coverage on 89.5% of Miami’s passing plays. But the Dolphins had the personnel to create gaps. On Jaylen Waddle’s second big gain, you can see Tyreke Hill pulling multiple defenders his way. Now, swap Hill and Waddle for Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. There’s less speed, sure. But Baltimore can be as effective through the air, and we haven’t even gotten to their ground game.

Jackson’s the main attraction, but J.K. Dobbins had an encouraging debut as well. His workload appears split with Justice Hill (six touches versus nine), but his situational usage bears a closer look. 

Dobbins had all of the two-minute and red-zone carries in his return. He was also the only running back to run a route. Buffalo’s rushing defense dropped to 17th in rushing EPA allowed after being top-5 the first two weeks. If the Bills show any signs of fatigue, Dobbins will be the hammer to keep them down.

Cooper Rush better be careful or he’s going to have to play QB for the Carolina Panthers.

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls)
Sep 27, 2022