š„ 3 Shootouts On Tap?! (Week 15 Preview)
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we preview Sunday games that could produce a lot of offense, bets from the group chat, and news to know.
Wait, I thought rookie TEs werenāt allowed to score fantasy points?
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:
- A Saturday recap and Sunday preview
- Morning Download: Houston, we have a problemā¦
- QUICK HITTER: Tail or Fade the 49ers -12.5?
- Donāt mess with Tee Higginsā mom
- Bets from the Group Chat: Say CHEESE!
- Itās 12/17. Take it away Peter Overzetā¦
Do you want the good news or the bad news first?
How about the good news? Week 15 is off to a high-scoring start with key fantasy contributors delivering monster stat lines during yesterdayās triple header:
- WR Jordan Addison (6-111-2)
- QB Jared Goff (278 yards & 5 TDs)
- TE Sam LaPorta (5-56-3)
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs (108 yards & 2 TDs)
- RB Ty Chandler (157 yards & 1 TD)
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-112-1)
- WR Tee Higgins (4-61-2)
Speaking of Higgins, he made one of the most insane TD catches youāll ever see:
The bad news is that we didnāt emerge from the Saturday tripleheader unscathed:
- WR JaāMarr Chase suffered a separated shoulder that puts the rest of his fantasy season in doubt
- WR Michael Pittman Jr. left the game after a scary hit to the head and is now in the concussion protocol
- RB Zack Moss exited the game early with an arm injury
With four games under our belt, itās time to turn our attention to todayās main slateā¦
š Clear your late-afternoon schedule
Iāve spilled a lot of sad ink this season lamenting the poor totals in these 2023 NFL games.
50+ totals used to be littered across a Sunday slate, but the scourge of QB injuries has left us with a continuous slew of games projected for less than 40 points.Ā
And if you started scrolling through our Game Hub for Week 15,Ā youād assume that was the case yet again for todayās action.
Thereās only one game with a total over 40 points in the first wave of games (Bucs at Packers), but if you keep scrolling to the later games you will find a sight for sore eyes:
Thatās right. We have three games in the late window that all project for more than 48.5 points.
The Commanders-Rams and Cowboys-Bills games could be legitimate shootouts, and the Niners have a gaudy 30-point individual team total.
Whether you are playing DFS or just hawking your playoff matchup, donāt get comfortable with any lead. The points are coming late today.
Good luck to everyone today. Get those teams to the semifinals!
š ļø Everything you need for Week 15
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the depleted Texans offense, Darren Wallerās return, and Geno Smith.
For everything else you need for Week 15āincluding our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updatesāyou can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for todayās slate below:
šŗFantasy Life on LG Channels: LIVE TODAY at 11:00 am EST!
Get all of your last-minute news from the best in the business!!
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Golden Tate, Kendall Valenzuela, and Ian Hartitz get you ready for all of the day's action on Fantasy Showtime Live exclusively on LG Channels!
When:Ā TODAY at 11:00 am EST
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Who: The Fantasy Life team of Golden Tate, Kendall Valenzuela & Ian Hartitz
Why: Because it's playoff time and you need every advantage you can get including:
- Justin Fields vs. the Browns
- RB Rankings - Seahawks RBs vs. the Eagles
- WR Rankings - Can you trust OBJ?!
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with playersā statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend ā lucky you ā letās get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
šĀ Texans are in Trouble
Houston, we have a problem.
The Texans are currently one game behind the Jaguars in the standings, and they have a winnable matchup vs. the Titans in Week 15. With Jacksonville hosting the Ravens ā arguably the best team in the AFC ā the division crown was in sight.
Unfortunately, the Texans are facing a dire injury situation. After losing stud rookie Tank Dell in Week 13, the Texans will be without their other two top rookies vs. the Titans. C.J. Stroud has been ruled out with a concussion, and heās in the midst of one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the QB position. Will Anderson Jr. has been the teamās top pass rusher, and heās been ruled out with an ankle injury.
If that wasnāt enough, the team will also likely be without top receiver Nico Collins, who hasnāt practiced all week with a calf injury.
The Titans have been exploitable against the pass all season, and Case Keenum isnāt a terrible quarterback. That said, itās hard to get excited about him as a streaming option.
The same goes for the teamās skill-position players, outside of possibly Devin Singletary. He checks in as our No. 72 flex in our consensus rankings, so heās far from a must-play.
šĀ Darren Waller Returns
Waller has been out of the lineup since Week 8, but heās been activated off Injured Reserve and will return to the lineup Sunday vs. the Saints.
Thatās great news for Tommy DeVito, aka Americaās new favorite son. DeVito, his family, and his agent have done more for New York/New Jersey Italians in three weeks than the Jersey Shore cast has in 10 years.
That said, should Waller go back into your fantasy lineups? Thatās a tougher question.
Waller was drafted as a top-five option at the position, but heās provided minimal production when healthy this season. While DeVito has been a fun story for everyone, itās hard to imagine that heās going to be better for Wallerās fantasy prospects than Daniel Jones.
Iām taking a wait-and-see approach.
It doesnāt take much to be relevant at tight end, but thereās a chance that Wallerās snaps are limited in his first game back. If he looks good on Sunday, we can fire him up in the fantasy semifinals.
š¤Ā What To Do With Geno Smith?
Smith doesnāt play until Monday Night Football, and thereās a legit chance that heās out for the second straight week. However, if he does play, he draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Eagles. Theyāve allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, so itās a potential smash spot if heās able to go.
So ā is the risk worth the potential reward?
That depends on your roster. Hopefully, if you are counting on Geno, you were lucky enough to scoop up Drew Lock as an insurance policy. Whoever starts at QB for Seattle is a QB1 for fantasy purposes, so thereās zero risk in that scenario.
If you donāt have Lock, it becomes a bit murkier.
We may get an update at some point on Sunday, but without any sort of reassurance from Pete Carroll, it would be hard to keep him in your lineups. You simply cannot take a zero in your lineup during the fantasy playoffs. As much as Iād like to leave the light on for Geno, if the only backups I have are playing on Sunday, Iām going to have to play it safe.
šĀ A picture-perfect matchup for the Rams aerial attack.Ā Week 15 DvP data to exploit.
šĀ This WR is a true game-time decision. Monitor this one.
š° +10.43u over the last 30 days?Ā More like 10.43 reasons why you should tail our free bets.
šĀ A perfect way to hedge your fantasy playoff matchups.Ā TD bets for Week 15.
šĀ The QB who is throwing for 300 & 4TDs today. The chopper has spoken.
šļøĀ Aaron Rodgers is close to a return?Ā Hereās the latest.
š£Ā PSA to everyone on the internet:Ā Donāt mess with Tee Higginsā mom.
šØĀ Target a shootout in LA?Ā Week 15 bets to hammer.
š¤ÆĀ One of the weirdest INTs youāll ever see. Thank you for that, Nick Mullens.
šļøĀ The Eagles secondary is in shambles. Letās hope Geno can take advantage.
Welcome to Week 15 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. Itās really a selfish endeavor as heāll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our group parlay below (+15.52 units on the year). You can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay.Ā
If parlays arenāt your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
1ļøā£ Mark Drumheller and Freedman like: Ravens -3.0 (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: -3.0 (-125)Ā
Jacksonville has struggled of late defensively ā allowing 30+ points in back-to-back games ā and now faces Lamar Jackson who posted 7.4 yards per attempt and 3 TDs against a Rams secondary that is better than the one heāll face this week.Ā
Baltimore has also been a solid road team going 10-5 ATS, on the road, since the start of last year.Ā
2ļøā£ LaMarca likes: Bears +3.0 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-105)Ā
As LaMarca noted in our free bet tracker, the Bears have been better on offense since Justin Fields returned ranking 13th in EPA/play on that side of the ball (since Week 11).
The Browns also just put two important O-Linemen on IR, significantly weakening their pass protection. The Bears got us a cover last week and I think they likely do the job again.
3ļøā£ Geoff likes: Tyler Allgeier over 7.5 carries (-138, BetMGM)
- Projection: 9.5
- Play to: 7.5 (-150) / 8.5 (-110)
The Falcons play the Panthers who are objectively the worst rush defense in the league (32nd in EPA per rush and 32nd in success rate against the run).Ā
Teams playing the Panthers have averaged 29.2 rush attempts per game (fifth-most in the league) and Allgeier himself has taken eight or more carries in every single since Week 5.Ā
š¤Ā Putting it all together: +488, BetMGM SGP
- Bears +3.0 (-115)
- Tyler Allgeier over 7.5 carries (-138)
- Ravens -3.0 (-120)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
šĀ Week 15 Ladder PlaysĀ
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.Ā
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.Ā
The Week 14 ladder targets are below.
š§Ā Jayden Reed - Packers (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+230) - play to +220
- Over 74.5 rec yards + anytime TD (+400 - SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+550) - play to +500
The Buccaneers are a classic funnel to the pass defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Theyāve been bothered by injuries and are likely to be without starting corner Carlton Davis (foot - doubtful).Ā
The dynamic Reed (4.45 40m) has gone for 80+ yards twice in seven games since Week 8 and caught a team-high 8 passes last week against the Giants.
We can play Reed through 75+ and 100+ yards, but we can also extend it with an anytime TD in the third leg. This same-game parlay on BetMGM gives you solid odds (+400) that donāt also require him to hit the 100+ yard mark.
