Give up the Kareem Hunt ghost, folks…

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Rival Fantasy:

• The guys behind the guy
• Real or Fake: James Cook here to stay?
• Don’t ask Tom Brady about the Jets
• Buy, Sell, Hold: A rookie TE
• It’s 9/20. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

If you’re reading this newsletter, you probably know that RBs like Jerome Ford and Kyren Williams are slam dunk adds if they are available.

But “if” is the operative word there, which is why I want to show some love to the “not in my league!” crowd today with a few super deeper RB sleepers you should consider stashing.

I have no problem ponying up for difference makers on the waiver wire (we spent 90% of our FAAB on Puka Nacua in one of my high-stakes leagues last week, for example), but it’s even better to get the next hot waiver add on your team before they cost an arm and a leg.

Here are four candidates to be that next waiver wire darling…

🔎 Pierre Strong - The guy behind Jerome Ford

Nick Chubb is depressingly out for the season and Ford will clearly be the lead back going forward. That leaves former Patriots RB Pierre Strong as the next man up in the Browns backfield.

He only got two touches after the Chubb injury, but he did manage to convert one of them into a TD.

Strong has the size (5’11'‘, 207lbs) and speed (4.37 40-yard dash) that we like to see when stashing an RB:

The Browns will certainly add another RB to backfill the void left by Chubb, but for now Strong is one Ford injury away from being a very important fantasy piece.

BONUS: Here’s what Jonathan Fuller wrote about Strong this summer as a super deep RB sleeper back when he was on the Patriots:

Strong was a wildly efficient runner coming out of South Dakota State and has flashed the ability to pick up chunk gains on his extremely limited workload in the NFL.

Jonathan Fuller

🔎 Zach Evans - The guy behind Kyren Williams

Look, I’m well aware that Zach Evans was a healthy scratch on Sunday, even after the team deactivated Cam Akers.

But Evans has a very intriguing prospect profile (see Dwain’s blurb below) and is by far the most talented back on the roster behind Williams (sorry, Ronnie Rivers and Royce Freeman).

If you need immediate production in fantasy, guys like Matt Breida and Craig Reynolds offer more bankable touches, but if you have the luxury to swing for the fences, make bets on guys like Evans—especially because we know Sean McVay loves utilizing a single back.

BONUS: Here’s what Dwain had to say about Evans in his RB Super Model piece this offseason:

Evans was a five-star recruit and the No. 2 RB in the 2020 recruiting class behind Bijan Robinson. Evans played his first two seasons at TCU, where he broke out with a 2.47 ATYTA as a sophomore in six games. However, he opted to transfer to Ole Miss for his junior season, where he regressed to 1.33 ATYTA in 2022.

On the surface, Evans’s 86 total yards per game for his career doesn’t look very appealing, but he flashed enough of his five-star magic to earn a spot in Tier 4. His 81st-percentile 21% explosive rush rate is best in the 2023 RB class, and Evans's average yards after contact ranks second behind only Robinson when only looking at Power Five programs.

In the passing attack, Evans was an above-average target earner with an 18% TPRR and a 1.35 YPRR on his career. He wasn’t just a swing-pass option either, as his 2.0 aDOT ranked third among this year's class of RBs.

Dwain McFarland

🔎Devon Achane - The guy behind Raheem Mostert
🔎 Kendre Miller - The guy behind Jamaal Williams

I’m lumping Devon Achane and Kendre Miller together because they are both rookies who were firmly on the redraft radar and subsequently dropped in most leagues, but now have clearer paths to relevance…

In Miami, Salvon Ahmed is dealing with a groin injury. And with Jeff Wilson out at least two more games, it means Achane will most certainly have a role in Week 3:

Achane’s blazing fast speed (4.32 40-yard dash) instantly makes him an intriguing stash in Mike McDaniel’s run scheme.

In New Orleans, a similar situation is unfolding. Jamaal Williams suffered a hamstring on Monday night, which paved the way for Tony Jones Jr. to turn 12 touches into 24 yards and 2 TDs.

Like the aforementioned Reynolds and Breida, Jones Jr. is a middling talent, which means the door is open for the exciting rookie to make his stamp on this backfield over the coming weeks.

It could be as soon as Week 3 with Alvin Kamara serving the final game of his suspension.

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Ian Hartitz took a look at 12 trends through two weeks and attempted to discern whether the numbers are real enough to keep on keeping on, or if the world will find out things are fake sooner rather than later. As always: It’s a great day to be great…

👨‍🍳 The Bills are letting James cook

Just look at this utilization!

The second-year RB has made the most out of his opportunities along the way, posting top-10 marks in missed tackles forced per carry (0.28), yards per carry (5.8) yards after contact per carry (4.4) and yards per route run (1.13).

Yes, the Bills seem content to let Latavius Murray and Damien Harris handle the majority of goal-line work.

Also yes, Cook is on pace for a whopping 315 touches and 1,887 total yards after two weeks of action.

❓Real or fake?

Fake in that I would take the under on those aforementioned touch and yardage projections, real in that Cook has solidified himself as a weekly upside RB2 inside this ever-potent Bills attack.

Beggars can’t be choosers in fantasy land: 15-plus combined carries and targets per week inside of this Josh Allen-led attack can and will go a long way this season.

It’d be cooler if the Bills gave Cook a goal-line carry here and there, but the young back’s explosive pass-catching ability is more than enough to make up for a lack of short-down-and-distance usage.

💪 This Cowboys defense looks like an absolute juggernaut

One of my favorite team defense stats is “Havoc Rate”, which takes the sum of a group’s tackles for a loss or no gain, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass deflections and pressures before dividing by total plays faced.

A really good havoc rate is usually anything above 50%. Nine defenses have pulled this off through two weeks of action:

• Cowboys (80.2%)
• Saints (59.1%)
• Bills (58.7%)
• Packers (58.1%)
• Commanders (57.5%)
• Browns (57%)
• 49ers (54%)
• Steelers (53.1%)
• Eagles (51.1%)

Micah Parsons and company have made life absolute hell for both Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson this season, unleashing a combination of elite pressure (62.8%, No. 1) and sticky coverage (21.4% contested target rate, No. 1) that is quite literally unmatched around the league.

❓Real or fake?

Fake in that these numbers won’t stay THIS high, but there does seem to be a real chance the best defense in football now resides in Dallas.

Matchups against the Cardinals and Patriots likely won’t give this group a real test over the next two weeks, but, for now, this pass rush looks capable of f*cking up any offensive line.

Plus, the addition of Stephon Gilmore has this ball-hawking secondary sitting pretty with PFF’s No. 1 coverage grade after two weeks of action.

🧁 Buccaneers country is BAKING

The 2-0 Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers haven’t exactly faced the toughest defenses in the Vikings (28th in scoring defense in 2022) and Bears (32nd), but credit where credit is due: This offense has found an early-season groove despite being written off by pretty much everyone before the season began.

Yes, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin make life a helluva lot easier for any QB.

Also yes, Mayfield himself deserves a lot of credit for the team’s hot start.

• EPA per dropback: +0.18 (No. 8 among 33 qualified QB)
• PFF passing grade: 80.3 (No. 3)
• CPOE: +6.3% (No. 9)
• Passer rating: 105.1 (No. 6)
• Adjusted completion rate: 78.7% (No. 11)
• Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 10)

❓ Real or fake?

Real-ish in the sense that this group won’t be confused with the league’s single-worst offense.

Mayfield has indeed played competent football for extended stretches before (just look at his second-half performance in both 2018 and 2020), and he’s being put in a good position to succeed with top-10 rates in play-action (29.3%) and no-huddle (15.4%) usage.

Potentially this year’s version of the 2022 Seahawks, at a minimum the Buccaneers profile as a far more average offense than anyone thought was possible a mere few weeks ago.

9 more trends & analysis on what is real & fake…

📉 Could CMC’s workload get scaled back? Kyle Shanahan tips his hand.

📺 Diving into every Week 2 data point. Are you BUYING LOW or SELLING HIGH?

🙏 Will Brandon Aiyuk be ready for TNF? Sounds iffy.

✍️ Miss out on the home-run waiver adds this week? These four breakouts may be available…

📊 Breaking down betting trends after 2 weeks of action. WHO is a longshot MVP bet to consider?!

🤥 Teams are apparently lining up to trade for Cam Akers…but I don’t buy it.

👎️ Speaking of potential trades I’m not buying…how about Jonathan Taylor to the Browns?

🤣 Now this is how you celebrate a first career TD pass. So good.

🔥 This rookie WR class is off to a blazing start. Look at those numbers!

🤮 Deshaun Watson vs. Zach Wilson. Who ya got???

Week 2 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…

Before we get into player specifics, I want to draw your attention to one key concept:

🔑 ADP is a distant memory

I know we just spent months mock drafting and studying player ADP, but as we get more weeks under our belt and the data points pile up, it’s time to loosen the reins on draft capital.

That’s right. It’s time to start valuing the information in front of us. (Start Puka!)

Now let’s get into some buyin’, sellin’, and holdin’ baby!

🛒BUY

📈 Sam LaPorta

If you didn’t draft one of the ‘big three TEs’ (read: Travis Kelce & co.), you’ve likely been playing tight-end roulette the last few weeks.

Hell, even if you DID draft one of the big three TEs you’ve had to scour the waiver wire for a healthy hammy. But I’m ready to settle down with the right guy.

With an average of 5 receptions and 50.5 yards per game, I’d say he’s worth your consideration.

Look, I know it’s only been 14 days, but I’m exhausted trying to fill my TE slot. If I can make it happen, I want the current overall TE6 on my team.

Takeaway: I refuse to let TE waivers rule my life.

🛒 SELL

📉 Najee Harris

Is it still considered selling if no one is buying?

Lucky for you, Harris broke away with a few double-digit runs on Monday night. Those might have beefed up his score justtttttt enough on paper to help you trade him away (4.8 points looks better than 0.9, right?).

Analysts have been touting Harris’ backup, Jaylen Warren, all offseason. And I think Warren’s role grows in this offense sooner rather than later.

Takeaway: Jaylen Warren is the RB to roster in PIT.

📉 Tony Jones Jr. RB 1 SZN?

While Jones’ lightning-quick payday looked great on paper once Jamaal Williams left the game with a hamstring injury, this type of production just isn’t guaranteed week to week.

Alvin Kamara returns from suspension after just one more game and rookie Kendre Miller is reportedly nearing his own return.

While Jones isn’t a bad pick-up in a vacuum, his price is just too damn high on the heels of this 2 TD game, for what is possibly only one week of playtime as the starter.

Takeaway: Tony Jones Jr. is here for a good time, not a long time.

🛒 HOLD

👌 Tony Pollard

Guys. You drafted him for this!

Pollard is looking to be exactly the RB we were hoping for this season. In a landscape where early-round picks can be unpredictably disappointing fantasy production busts, Pollard is holding his own.

Not only is Pollard ranked 3rd for rushing attempts on the season, a threat through the air, and healthy. But he’s also leading the NFL in carries from inside the 10.

AND Pollard takes on Arizona next week? YUMMY.

Takeaway: Red zone carries are good. We like red zone carries.

More Players to Buy, Sell, or Hold for Week 3

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