Let's just pretend last night's game didn't happen...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bud Light:

• 5 players to panic on
  
• JMToWin's Week 5 DFS Tips
• The elite TE set for a bounceback
• Geoff's bets: Falcons & Eagles
• Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 5
• Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
  
• It's 10/7. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Early in the season, we try not to panic when guys underperform, but with four weeks in the books, there are certainly guys it's safe to panic on. 

But not all panic is created equal. Some of these guys you can drop. Some you can bench. Some you have to just plug your nose and pray to the fantasy gods. 

Here is how I'm specifically approaching THE PANIC on a few of the biggest busts of the 2022 season:

🙏🏽 DJ Moore (Start & Pray)

Baker Mayfield has been catastrophically bad, and yet Moore continues to see a legit target share. We currently have him ranked as a fringe WR3. If you need to put him into your flex to send a message, we understand. 

🪑 Matthew Stafford & Allen Robinson (Bench & Pray)

The Rams are pretty broken right now. The running game is busted, and the passing offense funnels exclusively through Cooper Kupp with a sprinkle of Tyler Higbee. It's not like Robinson is on the bench, though. He's out there on the field getting his cardio in for the day. The team insists they want him to get involved, but this is a "we'll believe it when we see it" situation. Bench 'em both until they pound some Pedialyte and fend off their Super Bowl hangover. 

✂️ Darnell Mooney (Cut & Still Pray)

The Bears are currently running a 1940's offense, and Mooney might as well be wearing a leather helmet. He has 8 catches for 121 yards...on the season. Sure, he caught one bomb last week, but this is a dire situation with no light at the end of the tunnel. Feel free to move on to a player in a 21st-century offense.

🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽 Kyle Pitts (PRAY AS HARD AS YOU CAN)

Not only has Pitts been one of the biggest busts of the season, but he's now missed two straight days of practices. As a masochist, I was fully prepared to martingale Pitts in my starting lineup for the 5th straight week, but perhaps he will save me from myself and take this week off. 

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🧩 THE PUZZLE MASTER

My grandmother loved puzzles of any kind. Every time we visited, she had something new to show me.

Three-dimensional puzzles, computer puzzles, number puzzles, word puzzles.

Physical puzzles, slide puzzles, lever puzzles, maze puzzles.

But for all the puzzles my grandmother showed me — for all the puzzles I saw her complete — I never once saw her flip a puzzle over and try to solve it upside-down, with only the pieces guiding her and no pictures involved. She loved a challenge, but puzzles are challenging enough without unnecessary obstacles.

🧩 DFS IS A PUZZLE

Each week, the "picture on the box" in DFS is different. Each slate offers unique elements — in a hundred different categories — and our focus should be on putting together the puzzle in the best way we can.

It's pretty simple stuff, really — this isn't a groundbreaking thought — but somehow, it's something most of our DFS competition still doesn't think about or grasp:

If each new week is its own unique puzzle, the best thing we can do is figure out what the "picture on the box" looks like before we begin to build.

🧩 THE PICTURE ON THE BOX: WEEK 5

Teams missing from the slate: Teams missing from the slate: Colts // Broncos // Giants // Packers // Ravens // Bengals // Raiders // Chiefs

Key "top of the price range" players missing from the slate: Patrick Mahomes // Lamar Jackson // Jonathan Taylor // Saquon Barkley // Joe Mixon // Davante Adams // Ja'Marr Chase // Tee Higgins // Courtland Sutton // Michael Pittman // Travis Kelce // Mark Andrews

With so many "top of the price range" players missing from this slate, we will have some really unique elements to play around with, as the field is likely to either A) congregate on the same high-priced players this week (given that there are fewer to choose from), or B) focus more heavily on the mid-range of pricing.

We also have each of the top three offenses on the slate (Bills, Bucs, Eagles) projected to win somewhat handily (Buffalo and Tampa are both favored by over a touchdown, while the Eagles are 5-point road favorites vs the Cardinals), and we have only one game that features a close spread between two teams that have a decent chance of "pushing one another."

🧩 POTENTIAL "CORNER PIECE"?

The game with "a close spread between two teams that has a decent chance of pushing one another" is Chargers at Browns, which carries a spread of 3.0 between two teams that matched up for a 47-42 game last season.

In that game, Justin Herbert totaled five scores and threw for 398 yards, Austin Ekeler notched three touchdowns of his own, and Mike Williams went for 165 yards and a pair of scores. The Browns contributed a big day on the ground for Nick Chubb, a multi-touchdown game for Kareem Hunt, and a 7-149-1 line for David Njoku. There is plenty of continuity on these teams from last season to this season, making this an interesting spot to play around with throughout the weekend.

🧩 POTENTIAL MISSING PUZZLE PIECE?

"The Falcons are pathetic." This is the public perception.

But the numbers tell us something different.

Through four games, the ground-and-pound Falcons rank second in the NFL in Football Outsiders' run offense DVOA and third in adjusted line yards. They are playing the Bucs this week.

"The Bucs are phenomenal against the run. Don't even try it." This is the public perception.

But the numbers tell us something different.

Through four games, the Bucs rank 17th in run defense DVOA and 27th in adjusted line yards.

How bold are you feeling?

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📈 The elite TE set for a bounce back. Please. We're begging you.

👿 Just don't hold your breath for this disappointing TE. Brutal quote.

⬆️ Is the Cowboys' offense ready to take a step forward? This WR is ready to take it to the next level. 

💾 The Utilization Report video is LIVE & in living color. Dwain dives deep into RB usage, so you don't have to. 

🤷 Could Kyle Pitts' biggest problem be that he's too good? Phone it in here, sir.

🐦 The key to the Cardinals turnaround? It can't hurt.

🤦 The Kadarius Toney Experience. This guy, smh.

🚀 The Lions' offense could be scary good down the stretch. Reinforcements coming.

In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.

💸 Bears +7.5 

The Bears take on a Vikings squad who are 3-1 straight up but a mere 1-3 ATS. In the Kirk Cousins era, the Vikings have also been terrible covering as home favorites, posting a 4-9 ATS record in these spots since the beginning of the 2020 season. 

So far this year, the Vikings are ranking 4th last in yards per attempt as a secondary. They allowed a 71% completion rate and 8.4 yards per attempt to Andy Dalton, who was able to bring the Saints back from a two-score deficit in the second half on Sunday.

The Vikings are also a massive public favorite, with over 75% of the bets right now coming in on their side. To this point in the year, teams getting more than 60% of the bets are a mere 9-18 ATS.  

With low sentiment and a key number achieved at +7.5, the Bears are worth a play this week.

💸 Dallas Goedert over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)

The Cardinals' defense has posted a 43% blitz rate (second-highest in the league), seemingly leaving them vulnerable against opposing TEs. They’ve already given up 341 yards to opposing TEs through four weeks after giving up just 595 yards to the position all of last season. Goedert has averaged four catches and a 15.0 yard per reception rate through four weeks in 2022. The over is a clear target on Goedert this week, and don’t be shocked if this low total rises significantly by kick-off. 

💸 Justin Fields over 165.5 passing yards (-115)

As mentioned above, the Vikings have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt against and, as a team, play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league. Fields threw for 285 yards against Minnesota last year (his second-highest total ever) and still has a depressed over/under from the Bears' shockingly low pass rate through the first four weeks. With an uptempo game environment, expect some normalization towards the mean (from a run-pass play perspective) from the Bears this week and for a potential breakout game from Fields. 

💸 Saquon Barkley under 77.5 yards

The Packers have allowed 5.1 YPC this year, but a lot of that juiced-up number came in proverbial garbage time against the Bears. The Giants are going into London with almost no receivers and, with Barkley coming off 31 rushing attempts in Week 4, may be quick to reduce his touches if they get behind early. This isn’t a spot to go over on the Giants' offensive player props. 

💸 Top 3 ATS (Against the Spread)

• Bears +7.5
• Falcons +10
• Eagles -5.5

Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!

It’s#LOVEHATE day! Week 5 is now posted and, as always, it’s FREE.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Oct 6, 2022

Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice. 

Normally, I’d start with some kind of intro, but we’ve got too much to get to, so let’s just dive in. 

🦵️ Younghoe Koo (Linda's Rank: K13)

I can’t in good conscience tell you to sit Younghoe Koo this week, or any other week for that matter. The Falcons' 3.0 attempts per game are tied for first in the league. While I can’t tell you to sit him, I will tell you to manage your expectations. Atlanta faces off against a tough Tampa Bay defense in Week 5. The Falcons are down their starting running back and have struggled to get it going in the air, completing only 7 passes last week vs. the Browns. 

🦵️ Injury Roundup

If you had told me in the pre-season I’d need to set aside space to cover kicker injuries, I wouldn’t believe you.

But here we are. 

* Harrison Butker hasn’t played since his injury in Week 1. If Butker can’t go on Monday, the Chiefs will look to Matthew Wright, who went 2-2 on field goal attempts and 5-5 on extra point attempts last week vs. the Bucs. Whoever is kicking for the Chiefs this week should see opportunities vs. the Raiders. 

*Jake Elliot got banged up last week vs. the Jaguars and has been ruled out.  It’ll be rookie UDFA Cameron Dicker. 

* Matt Prater sustained a hip injury in Week 4. He has been ruled OUT for Week 5. Matt Ammendola, who played one game with the Chiefs this season, will get the nod for Arizona. 

* Austin Seibert continues to be sidelined with an injury after missing Week 4. The Lions brought in Michael Badgley in case Seibert can’t go.

You can find my Week 5 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.