Arthur Smith was never good in school because you have to pass...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Cuts:

• The trade deadline looms.
• Utilization Report. One RB to scoop and one to shop.
• Premiere Matchup. A veteran rejoins the WR1 convo.
• Regression Session. Times are hard, man.
• The Fantasy Life Podcast is LIVE!
• QB play is down...
• It's 10/26. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

The NFL trade deadline is next Tuesday and we have already seen several moves over the last week, and that could continue with multiple players still associated with trade rumors. 

🤝 The Top Six Fantasy Options that Could Be Traded

➡️ WR - D.J. Moore

The Panthers say he isn't available, but that could change with a big offer. Moore has the talent profile of a WR1, he just needs a QB.

➡️ RB - Kareem Hunt

The dual-threat could become an instant RB1 on many teams and is on the market. That is just one of the many reasons he is a buy-low candidate. Read on for more in the Utilization Report.

➡️ WR - Brandin Cooks

The Texans are 1-4-1, and Cooks can challenge for immediate WR2 status on most teams. Teams are calling.

➡️ WR - Elijah Moore

Another WR that is supposedly not for sale, but Moore requested a trade, and the right offer could pry him free. Moore flashed big as a rookie. He is available in 59% of Yahoo! leagues.

➡️ WR - Jerry Jeudy

The former first-rounder from Alabama has a solid target rate (21%) and could flourish with a legit QB. According to Adam Schefter, multiple teams have inquired about Jeudy.

➡️ WR - Chase Claypool

The Steelers have multiple young weapons, and Claypool flashed big-time as a rookie with a WR22 finish. The third-year WR is available in 39% of Yahoo! leagues.

The Chiefs, Eagles, Packers and Rams are all notable teams that are rumored to be in the market for offensive weapons.

Be sure to practice patience with talented players who are underperforming until the deadline has passed. Don't release them, and don't trade them unless you are capitalizing on the rumor mill and your opponent's imagination. Also, if you see a talented player dropped, they could be worth a pickup, just in case they get a change of scenery. 

Ready to trade in your Cheeto-stained T-shirts?

Let’s face it. Our wardrobes need an overhaul. Especially the old T-shirts we throw on when we are getting ready for seven hours of commercial-free football or bracing ourselves for another Russell Wilson prime-time game.

Too baggy, too tight, too flimsy, too heavy, the list goes on and on.

Cuts has changed the game by creating the perfect T-shirt that makes you look good and feel better. With Cuts, you can be comfortable and watch your fantasy team win in style.

Cuts are more than just T-shirts. They have expanded their product line to include polos, joggers, and jackets, so no matter if you are watching football with friends or forced to visit your mother-in-law while checking box scores every 10 seconds and have to look nice - Cuts has you covered!

Upgrade your wardrobe game

Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.

💰 Sell High

💰 RB – D’Onta Foreman

Foreman is the perfect definition of a sell-high candidate for three reasons:

• He is the No. 2. He worked behind Chuba Hubbard with only 35% of the snaps and 33% of the rushing attempts. Half of his work came in the fourth quarter after Hubbard left with an ankle injury. This could be a fluid situation, but the first data point tells us he is behind a younger option the team drafted.
• The Panthers aren’t a good offense. The Panthers rush the ball 20.1 times per game in non-overtime play – last in the NFL. They score a TD on 13% of drives – 30th in the NFL.
• The market is in need. Fantasy managers are hurting at running back after injuries to Breece Hall, J.K. Dobbins, and Rashaad Penny, and the disappearance of early-season luck boxes like James Robinson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Find that RB-needy team and see what you can get for Foreman, who has the cards stacked against him in Carolina.

Buy Low

💰 RB – Kareem Hunt

Hunt continues to see similar utilization to previous seasons, but the production has not followed.

The primary difference for Hunt has been his 15% target rate (TPRR), which is down from his three-year average of 22%, which means regression to the mean provides upside – the Browns still prefer Hunt as the pass-catching back, thus his role as the passing-down back.

Additionally, the trade rumor mill is churning around Hunt over the past few days. The all-purpose RB would immediately leap-frog to the No. 1 position on many teams not led by super-human Nick Chubb.

Hunt has outs whether he stays or leaves the Browns, making him a great RB to target low after only one top-12 finish so far in 2022.

Upgrades

📈 QB – Justin Fields

Fields had 14 carries for 82 yards and a TD. Importantly, 28% of those carries were designed plays – something we have been begging the Bears to do all season. 

The second-year QB already leads the league in scramble rate at 18%, so if Chicago is serious about integrating Fields into the designed-run plans, this role is going to be juicy. He had attempt totals of 7, 8, and 12 in the three previous games and eclipsed 45 yards in each. He is averaging 10.3 carries per game over the last four contests.

Fields is a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside moving forward.

📈 RB – Travis Etienne

James Robinson was traded to the Jets on Monday evening. We could see Snoop Conner or another back help ease the early-down burden, but Etienne took over an every-down role in Week 7 with Robinson nursing a knee injury. 

He scored 18.9 fantasy points on 80% of snaps and 58% of the rushing attempts, and he continued to dominate passing downs as he has done since Week 1. Etienne has also played better as of late and now ranks ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25) and carries of 10-plus yards (15%). 

The former first-round NFL draft pick is a low-end RB1 heading into Week 8.

📈 WR – DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins returned with a vengeance with an eye-popping 50% target share in Week 7 against the Saints. 

Last season, Hopkins registered his worst TPRR (18%) since his rookie campaign while battling through multiple injury issues. This was a sharp contrast from his 27% target share over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, which left fantasy managers wondering which Hopkins we would see in 2022. 

The first data point suggests the 30-year-old still has plenty of gas in the tank, and with Marquise Brown out, Hopkins is a high-end WR2.

🥇 Whew, if you drafted these guys... Well done, you are winning.

💥 This rookie WR is smashing. He is in some elite company.

🦷️ Some tiny Week 7 performances. Bro, you got flossed.

😱 Pressure can get to all of us. This QB really can't handle it.

🎱 Is QB play really that bad in 2022? Signs point to yes.

🐄 We have a new Bellcow back in the AFC East. And it's not who you think it is. 

📈 2 RB1s you need to pay attention to. Marcas & Dwain break it down in the Fantasy Life Podcast.

✌️ This player has a new profile pic. You gotta love NFL fans.

🤷‍♀️ Didn't expect to compare these two QBs in 2022. But, here we are...

Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, Chris Allen tackles the Cardinals/Vikings Week 8 tilt...

On paper, this matchup looked intriguing back in Week 1. We had some insight into Minnesota’s offense, but Arizona’s had some mysticism about it. Marquise Brown had just entered the fold, and DeAndre Hopkins was due back. But then, chaos happened.

The Cardinals’ offense couldn’t get off the ground. Before Week 7, they were 20th in EPA per play and constantly switching up their offensive linemen. Kyler Murray is the QB5 on the season, but without the expected heights. He has fewer rushing yards than Justin Fields, and Joe Burrow has more scores on the ground. I was skeptical about Hopkins’s return, but surprisingly, Kliff Kingsbury showed signs of creativity as a play-caller.

We consider “getting the ball to your best players” a simple concept. But for receivers with Hopkins-level talent, it’s a bit more difficult. Usually, it requires moving your players around the formation. Take Tyreek Hill, for example. 

While still in Kansas City, Hill lined up on the left and right perimeter at nearly identical rates (14.7% and 16.7%). His slot routes told a similar story. Stefon Diggs is another case. But Kingsbury took a different (read: nonexistent) approach for his WR1.

Nuk spent 65.1% of his routes on the left perimeter in 2021. He ran the fewest routes from the slot of any starting receiver in Arizona, per SIS. The lack of manufactured touches and his noted target decline bounded any optimism for his return. But he got off to the right start in TNF last week.

It’s a one-game sample, but Hopkins has a single-digit aDOT for the second time in his career. He led the team in slot targets despite Murray's other two primary targets (Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch) being interior receivers. His on-field deployment, coupled with a 60.6% air yard share, puts Hopkins firmly back in the WR1 conversation. And, going up against Minnesota’s secondary (18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks), the Cardinals should continue to find success through the air. I only wonder which Kirk Cousins we’ll see on Sunday.

Cousins does just enough to lure you into believing he’s a franchise quarterback. At first glance, the offense is fine. Not spectacular or capable of making a deep playoff run. But fine. 

They’re 14th in EPA per play and 18th in yards per play. Cousins has run the 11th-most plays in their opponent’s red zone and come out with a touchdown or field goal on 26.4% of those opportunities. You start thinking if the team had more juice on offense, they’d be more of a contender until you look closer at his play.

Cousins’ first-half efficiency and accuracy metrics put him in the upper echelon of quarterbacks. His 4.4% CPOE is greater than Patrick Mahomes. His EPA per play matches Burrow’s. But watch out in the second half. 

Davis Mills and Russell Wilson surround Cousins in the rankings for late-game efficiency. Zach Wilson is more accurate in this part of the game. The Vikings’ passing game only has six completions of 20-yards or more on the season, and Cousins is 23rd in adjusted completion percentage under pressure. Without an explosive aerial attack, the Cardinals’ defense may keep the Vikings in check coming out of their bye.

When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.

Positive Regression - Diontae Johnson

It’s been a difficult start for the Steelers' offense over the past three weeks, averaging just 11 points and one passing touchdown per game. Unsurprisingly, Diontae Johnson’s production has suffered as a result. He is the WR57 in half-PPR points per game since Week 5 and has yet to top 85 yards or score a touchdown in a game this season. 

That’s a whole lot of bad. Now let’s look at the positives.

Over that same three-game stretch with WR57 production, Johnson ranked as the WR4 in expected half-PPR fantasy points. He is seeing nearly 10 targets per game this year and currently has the highest aDOT of any season in his career. He has continued to prove his ability to create separation, leading the league in ESPN’s Open Score (an interesting stat you can read about here). 

This suggests that Diontae is still a good player in a great role. If the Steelers' offense can establish some chemistry with Kenny Pickett at QB over the remainder of the season, we should see Johnson return to the PPR machine that has made him a valuable fantasy asset. 

Negative Regression - Mecole Hardman

The Chiefs have been looking for a secondary weapon behind Travis Kelce, and Mecole Hardman stepped up big this week by scoring three touchdowns. That performance put an exclamation point on a great three-week run where Mecole has been the WR2 in half-PPR scoring. Unfortunately, this seems unlikely to last due to his part-time role in the offense and reliance on designed touches near the end zone. 

Over those three weeks, Hardman has run a route on just 50% of Patrick Mahomes dropbacks and earned 12 total targets. Even when we account for his role in the rushing game, he only ranks as the WR61 in half-PPR expected points per game. His usage near the goal line in Week 7 seems likely to have been game-plan specific and not a true change of role. All of these factors, along with the more sustainable breakout of JuJu Smith-Schuster in recent weeks, suggest that regression is right around the corner.

Don’t fall for the supposed breakout; Hardman has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career, and this season is unlikely to be different, despite the hot stretch he’s had.

Hey@SleeperHQ your app keeps telling me I’m the worst team every Tuesday morning. I think it’s a bug if you want to alert the IT guy.

— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle)
Oct 25, 2022