As Rod Stewart once said, the first cut is the deepest...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the FFPC :

• 6 RBs who were cut & the fantasy implications
• 3 tips for playing on FFPC
• A sleeper TE to target
• Kendall's favorite bets
  
• Kevin's top draft value
• It’s 8/31. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

The deadline for NFL teams to trim their rosters down to 53 players was yesterday at 4pm ET. Here are 6 interesting RB cuts and the sneaky implications for fantasy...

✂️ Texans RB Marlon Mack

Takeaway: Not sure there is a buzzier player in fantasy right now than rookie RB Dameon Pierce and the Texans releasing Mack certainly isn't going to cool off any enthusiasm. Pierce's ADP appears to be on an unstoppable trajectory into the early rounds of drafts. Not to be that guy, but...the real issue for Pierce was never Mack, it was losing pass down work to Rex Burkhead on an offense that is going to be trailing most games. I'd proceed with caution at these elevated prices.

✂️ Commanders RB Jaret Patterson

Takeaway: The big news here is that Brian Robinson made the roster, an amazing development considering he was just released from the hospital on Monday after being shot twice. We still have no concrete timeframe on his return to action, but this is a promising step in the right direction.

We’re all excited to have @BrianR_4 back in the building 💛 twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders)
Aug 30, 2022

✂️ Niners RB JaMycal Hasty

Takeaway: Many thought Hasty would make the team and mix in on passing downs, so this would seem to indicate that the team's hot-and-cold relationship with Trey Sermon is currently looking more glass-half-full. This also bolsters Jeff Wilson Jr.'s role, who I believe will open the season as the No. 2 behind Eli Mitchell.

✂️ Patriots RBs JJ Taylor and Kevin Harris

Takeaway: This must mean Ty Montgomery's injury isn't too serious and/or the team is feeling good about rookie Pierre Strong. Who knows, maybe Sony Michel could find his way back to New England as well. Regardless, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are the only draftable Patriots backs in most formats.

✂️ Colts RB Phillip Lindsay

Takeaway: Because I'm sick, I was actually slightly worried about Nyheim Hines' contingent value in the event of a Jonathan Taylor injury because of Lindsay. Deon Jackson remains on the roster, but this makes a Hines a slightly more attractive RB dart throw in my eyes. 

✂️ Ravens RB Tyler Badie

Takeaway: Cutting the rookie is interesting and would seem to imply the team liked what they saw in the passing game from bounceback candidate Justice Hill. Also worth noting: after getting released by the Raiders, Kenyan Drake is expected to sign with the Ravens. If you liked last year's Ty'Son Williams and Latavius Murray version of the Baltimore backfield, you are going to love the Drake and Mike Davis one.

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📝 3 Tips for 2022 FFPC Drafts

A couple weeks ago I shared some general tips for drafting on the FFPC, but today I want to dive into some more current strategy with regards to how drafts are actually unfolding.

I now have 8 FFPC Main Event teams under my belt–a handful of which you can watch me draft over on the Ship Chasing Youtube channel–and there are some unique dynamics at play in 2022 draft rooms.

Here are three tips for those of you chasing that million dollar top prize with me…

💡 It’s very tough to pass on an Elite QB

Late round QB has been a dominant strategy for years, but in the new NFL the elite QBs (specifically those who can also contribute via rushing) have become a bit of a cheat code.

As you can see in this ADP grid of Main Event drafts (h/t Rotoviz), QBs 3-9 all go off the board between rounds 6-9:

I find it incredibly difficult to pass up on one of the signal callers in this range because of the immense upside they can give you during the playoff sprint Weeks 15-17.

I think you could argue that all of these QBs should be valued higher and the opportunity cost of passing on a RB or WR in one of these rounds isn’t massive.

💡 Know the pockets of the draft

In a perfect world, you’d get an Anchor RB, an Elite TE, an Elite QB, and a handful of high upside WRs through the first half of your draft, but that’s not always possible. 

Knowing you’ll likely be weak at at least one position, it’s important to know the value pockets throughout the draft so you can make up for quality with quantity.

I already mentioned the sweet spot for QBs above, but I’d also point out a few others:

• Upside WRs (Rounds 3-8): This is the sweet spot for grabbing WRs who have legit upside to finish as a Top 15 WR. After DeVonta Smith comes off the board at WR41, it gets very thin.
• Zero RB targets (Round 10): This is an incredibly juicy range for high upside RB fliers. In this round:

• Punt TEs (Rounds 12-13): If you miss out on an elite TE, be ready to grab a couple in this range where exciting names like Gerald Everett, David Njoku, and Hunter Henry all go off the board.

💡 Go get your guys after Round 10

If there’s one thing I’ve learned while playing on FFPC, it’s that drafters throw ADP out the window in the second half of the draft. 

FFPC players are news hounds and there’s no performance or blurb that gets past them. Players who performed well in training camp and preseason like Isiah Pacheco, George Pickens, and Isaiah Likely have screamed up draft boards. If you want ‘em, you’re gonna need to go and get ‘em.

Same thing goes for all your favorite sleeper RBs. Do you love Eno Benjamin as much as we do? Well don’t wait to get him at ADP, there seems to be a drafter willing to take him earlier and earlier every draft.

🎯 A sleeper TE to target. Everything is pointing to a big year.

🤔 Could Michael Gallup be back Week 1? Jerry Jones gives a very Jerry Jones-y response.

🚑 2 players in doubt for Week 1. We need to keep tabs on Ravens RBs and Dolphins WRs.

💥 A wild Calvin Ridley story. He's had a rough year.

🖼️ An incredible Jimmy G drawing. Rita has ben doing a Jimmy G drawing every day until he's traded, so Sunday was a big day for the bit.

🎙️ Big Fantasy Life news. You're going to want a Sirius XM subscription.

Our Senior Analyst & Director of Social, Kendall Valenzuela, drops by to give us two of her favorite NFL bets on the board right now. Take it away, Kendall...

‘Tis the season of pumpkin spice lattes and kids going back to school which can only mean one thing, we are dangerously close to the NFL season starting. Even though summer is coming to an end there are still some hot futures bets you can place before Week 1 begins.

💰 Justin Fields Over 3299.5 Passing Yards (-115) via Bet MGM

I get it, if you’re not under the impression that Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields will improve from his rookie campaign and look more polished then you may not like this bet. BUT let me try and get you on board. 

First it’s important to note that the coaching changes should signify a better situation overall for Fields. The offense should be more catered to his style of play resulting in a better product. We can agree that there is a lack of depth across the offense, but playmakers are still there and there’s no doubt in my mind that Fields will improve from his rookie season. 

Per Sharp Football Analysis, Justin Fields started 10 games last season and averaged 187 yards per game – this put him on pace for 3,179 over a full 17-game schedule. So when considering Fields would only need to average about 200 yards a game in 2022 the over seems doable. Fields will have better games under Luke Getsy and even a moderate improvement will allow him to keep pace to hit the over on passing yards. You can also get access to Sharp Football through Rotopass here.

💰 Vikings and Bills to make the Playoffs (+130) via DraftKings

Just because summer is over doesn’t mean things have to cool down in our parlays. This is one I found on DraftKings in Team Futures-Playoff Parlays section. My ultimate bet here is that I fully believe in the Minnesota Vikings this season and see them making the playoffs. Pair that with a Buffalo Bills team who are favorites to win the Super Bowl and things could get fun.

I am buying into the new coaching staff in Minnesota and believe Kevin O’Connell can get even more out of quarterback Kirk Cousins. Oh yeah, and they have a few superstars in Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook too. It’s also interesting to point out that in 2022 the Vikings will play more home games than road games. If you take out the 2020 season that didn’t allow fans, the Vikings are 36-18-4 (67%) ATS at home since 2014, which is the best record in the NFL according to FOX Sports. 

The offense is going to produce and the defense won’t face as tough of a schedule as they did last season. I like the Vikings to make the playoffs, parlayed with the Bills to make the playoffs to give us a little extra juice.

Hunting for value in our drafts is how we build superteams. Today, Kevin shares his favorite value RB in drafts right now...

🚀 Rachaad White (RB42)

When I look at the players with the best value relative to their ADP, I can’t help but look to rookies or players with uncertain situations or roles. White fits that bill.

White is one of my favorite RBs to draft in fantasy this season and he checks every box in terms of what you want from a back in fantasy, except for an immediate three-down opportunity. But he has a path to that!

The Buccaneers led the NFL in high-value touches from RBs (carries inside the 10-yard line plus receptions) last season and they should be right there within the top-five in 2022. White will get quite a few high-value touches via receptions in a standalone role.

White’s receiving profile in college is something to behold. Historic even. White’s career average of 2.46 yards per route run is the third-highest mark of any RB in the last six draft classes, putting him only behind Christian McCaffrey and Kenyan Drake.

Targets are worth more expected fantasy points than carries, by about 2.5x-3x depending on scoring factors. When we’re looking for the RB profiles that could make a giant leap in fantasy, an elite receiving profile highlights and bolds that player for me. Add in a 4.48 40-yd. dash at 215 pounds plus a 19% target share last season for Arizona State? The icing on the cake.

The standalone role for White is pretty fantastic for a RB you can draft in the double-digit rounds, but what about the contingency factor?

Mark Ingram was coming off an RB8 season at age 27 when the Saints drafted Alvin Kamara in Round 3.

This is a Rachaad White tweet.

— Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew)
May 18, 2022

White will have a role in this strong Buccaneers offense even if Leonard Fournette is healthy, but what if Leonard Fournette ISN’T healthy? If something were to happen to Fournette, who has never played a full season in his five-year career, then White is the next man up and provides some of the best contingent value in fantasy this season. He should be a priority add to fill out your RB depth in fantasy drafts and the upside here is a potential Alvin Kamara? I’m in. And so is Pete.