š A Potential Break Up in New York
Will he stay? Or will he retire?
Just waiting for the āSpencer Rattler could go in the first roundā reportsā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
Giants TE Debates Retirement: Is it because of his QB situation?
Happy āThe Beast ā release day to all who observe
Rookie TE Super Model Tiers 1 and 2: Brock Bowers is a DAWG
Itās 4/10. Take it away, Chris Allenā¦
Thereās a heightened sense of uncertainty at this point in the draft cycle.
Weāve exhausted all of the practical uses of the data weāve been given regarding the rookies. Now, weāre nitpicking. At the same time, front office personnel have turned into ninjas from the Foot Clan with the constant smokescreens to keep us all guessing about their draft plans.
Plus, we still have the veterans looking for new deals to consider. As a Bengals fan, Iāve seen more trades involving Tee Higgins than Iād like. Regardless, from Higgins to Brandon Aiyuk, any certainty about how the night of the 25th will go instantly gets tossed out the window.
But thatās (somewhat) expected. Remove the player names, and this is the annual circus getting us to the first-overall selection. However, the 2024 season gave us its own added spice on examples of uncertainty before resetting rosters for the upcoming season.
Colleague @VicTafur caught up with Darren Waller in Vegas recently. When will Waller inform the Giants if he's retiring? He said it would be ideal to let them know before the draft "but I also donāt want to put that on myself. Itās gotta be before summer break, for sure.āā¦ twitter.com/i/web/status/1ā¦
On the one hand, Darren Wallerās hesitancy isnāt without merit. The soon-to-be 32-year-old TE has dealt with lower-leg injuries every year since 2019. He hasnāt played a full season since ā20. But in the midst of his on-field setbacks, Waller has strived to help folks off the field. With one Pro Bowl to his resume and an albeit short-lived playoff run, hanging āem up at this point would be commendable.
On the other hand, itād be objectively funny if Waller is waiting to see if heāll be playing with another QB this season.
Admittedly, Giants GM Joe Schoen already indicated the āteam has other needsā. But Jerry Jones said Dallas was āall-inā and splurged onā¦*checks notes*ā¦Eric Kendricks. According to Jim Harbaugh, J.J. McCarthy will be the first QB off the board. People say things.
Regardless, the fantasy implications (with Daniel Jones or McCarthy under center) are intriguing. Wallerās ADP sits at TE32 on Underdog. Folks have more confidence in Chig Okonkwo (TE25) playing behind Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and (maybe?) Treylon Burks than Waller competing withā¦*again checks notes*ā¦Isaiah McKenzie (Iām kind of kidding). Lest we forget, when healthy, at least Waller functioned as a top option in their passing game:
Air Yard Share: 23.0%, 2nd (amongst all TEs)
Target Share: 21.0%, 2nd
TPRR: 20.3%, 12th
Did Waller meet expectations in 2023? No.
But maybe when you have a midseason QB battle between Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito, a lot of things didnāt go the way you thought they would. So while many might dismiss Wallerās decision, drafters with 3-TE builds on their minds should look to the Giantsā TE as a value option for 2024.
The Pinnacle of Golf...The Masters
Who will walk away from Augusta National with the Green Jacket?
Elevate your golf experience with BetMGM as the drama unfolds at The Masters. Swing into the action with BetMGM for a front-row seat to witness history in the making! Feel the adrenaline as golf's biggest stars shine at golf's grandest showdown! Be a part of golf history with BetMGM by your side.
Place your first bet and BetMGM will pay you back in bonus bets up to $1,500 if you donāt win! That's right, $1,500!
Join The King of Sportsbooks today! Sign up for BetMGM here!
Claim up to $1500 in Bonus Bets
šŗ Is the next Travis Kelce on the way?Ā Dwain and Marcas break it down.
āĀ Former Patriots CB calls it a career.Ā Wouldnāt be surprised to see him coaching soon.
š 400 scouting reports. Test data for 2000 prospects. The Beast is loose!
š®Ā Packersā president hints at their season opener location.Ā What a way to kick off 2024.Ā
š¤Ā Former MVP plays catch with kids while on vacation.Ā That arm still looks good.
š¢Ā Justin Jefferson is jealous of his old LSU teammates.Ā Itās all love, though.
ā NFL adds more helmet designs for the upcoming season.Ā Anything to keep our guys safe.
šĀ Panthers eyeing multiple WRs in the draft.Ā Get Bryce Young some help!
š° The Jaguars strike a deal with their star pass rusher.Ā Now, fix the offense. Please?
We let Dwain McFarland out of the lab to watch the eclipse and then immediately sent him back inside to evaluate the incoming class of rookie TEs. Of course, he came up with a model so great it couldnāt just be called a āTE model.ā
Presenting: Fantasy Lifeās new Rookie TE Super Model.
š„Ā Tier 1 ā Superstar Traits With High-End TE1 Upside
šŖĀ Brock Bowers | Georgia
TE Super Model: 83rd percentile
Age: 21.7
Height: 6ā3ā
Weight: 243
šĀ Pedigree
Program Quality Index: 55th percentile
NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 10, Round 1
247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars
Bowers has slipped a few spots in mock drafts over the past month, but he has a chance to become the third TE taken inside the top-10 picks since the 2018 NFL Draft. This would put him in the company of Kyle Pitts and T.J. Hockenson.Ā
š¤Ā Production and Athleticism
Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 100th percentile
Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 92nd percentile
Speed Score Index: 44th percentile*
Adjusted Career receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) is the strongest predictor in the model, with a 0.51 correlation to fantasy points per game over a TEās first two seasonsāonly behind NFL Draft pick at 0.58. Bowers has the top prospect score in the Super Model database.
Bowers erupted as a true freshman with a 2.16 RYPTPAāthe highest mark on record. He followed that up in each of the next two seasons to earn an age-adjusted RYPTPA of 2.03 (96th percentile).
But that wasnāt all. Bowers delivered a top-three all-time finish in every component of Adjusted Career RYPTPA:
Career RYPTPA Over Expected for aDOT: +1.21
Career RYPTPA Over Expected for team passer rating: +1.18
Career RYPTPA Over Expected for Teammate Competition: +1.18
When his QBs looked his way, Bowers rewarded them with a 141.9 QB ratingāthe second-best mark in our database. He was equally impactful against man and zone coverages, outpacing his collegiate peers with at least 250 routes in all categories:
Man TPRR: 20% (+3 percentage points)
Man YPRR: 1.90 (+0.58 yards)
Zone TPRR: 25% (+10)
Zone YPRR: 2.92 (+1.60)
š®Ā Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates
Underdog ADP: TE9, Round 7
Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE1, Pick 4
Hitting on an early-career breakout from the TE position isnāt easy. However, if Bowers lands on a roster without much competition, I wouldnāt bet against a top-six season out of the gate.Ā
š„Ā Tier 2 ā Role Traits With Room to Grow Into A Low-End TE1
šļøāāļø JaāTavion Sanders | Texas
TE Super Model: 48th percentile
Age: 21.4
Height: 6ā4ā
Weight: 245
šĀ Pedigree
Program Quality Index: 0th percentile
NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 40, Round 2
247 Recruit Player Rating: 5 of 5 stars
Sanders was a wide receiver in high school but, at 235 pounds, was classified as an athlete (ATH) prospect. In 2021, he was the No. 30 prospect overall and the No. 1 ATH prospect in the country.
š¤Ā Production and Athleticism
Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 62nd percentile
Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 69th percentile
Speed Score Index: 40th percentile
Despite a non-existent role as a freshman, Sanders scored above average in the production model, where Years 2 and 3 are the most important RYPTPA years for TEs. Here are the correlations to future fantasy points for each year:
Year 1: 0.18
Year 2: 0.40
Year 3: 0.43
Year 4: 0.13
Year 5: -0.04
How well the prospect scores in age-weighted RYPTPA accounts for almost half of their Adjusted Career RYPTPA.
Sanders gets a bump from the Super Model for playing with Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. His career teammate-adjusted RYPTPA was 0.57 over expectationāthe second-best mark in the 2024 TE draft class. That score makes sense in the context of his targeted QB rating. Sanders capitalized when his opportunities came, delivering a 111.0 Career Targeted QB Rating (69th percentile).
š®Ā Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates
Underdog ADP: TE27, Final Rounds
Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE2, Pick 25
The most significant risk for Sanders is finding an offense that wonāt pigeonhole him in a part-time role. However, in the right spot, Sanders could develop into a No. 2 or 3 passing-game option and offer fantasy value.
More on the Tier 1 & 2 TEs of 2024
