💡 A QB Sleeper You Can't Ignore
In today's Fantasy Life newsletter, the team breaks down the curious case of the Atlanta Falcons, 4 super deep best ball sleepers, how to draft RBs, and more!
Maybe Arthur Smith went on an Ayahuasca retreat over the summer...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Fantasy Football Expo:
- The curious case of the Atlanta Falcons
- OverReaction Monday: Can these 2 take advantage?
- 4 super deep best ball sleepers
- Optimal Roster Construction: How To Draft RBs
- It's 6/26. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
The Atlanta Falcons are a very interesting fantasy football case study.
On the one hand, you have an offense led by Arthur Smith—a man who would presumably rather complete the Cinnamon challenge in his underwear on national television than pass the ball.
The Falcons finished 31st in the league last year with a dismal -13.7% pass rate over expectation and also played at one of the slowest paces (27th in the league).
This isn’t exactly an offense that fantasy dreams are made of. And yet if you looked at current draft boards, you’d see an offense with three different skill position players going in the Top 70 picks:
Everyone knows Bijan Robinson is a generational prospect who could easily contend for the RB1 this year.
Drake London is a 22-year-old, 6’4” 213lb WR who was selected 8th overall in the 2022 draft and earned a 25% target share as a rookie.
And yes, then there’s Kyle Pitts—the TE who burned us all last year but remains one of the most gifted players in the league at a position with very little top-end talent.
Something has to give, right?
Sure, Robinson can pay off his ADP regardless on massive rushing volume, but there’s very little chance both London and Pitts can outperform theirs without some kind of philosophical shift or a leap in QB play…
This brings us to second-year QB, Desmond Ridder.
😕 Can the Falcons get something from their QB?
Despite three of his weapons going early in drafts, Ridder goes in the last round and sometimes undrafted.
Here’s how Ian described his outlook in the Falcons team preview:
As a rookie, Ridder came in 30th in completion percentage over expected (-1%) and 34th in EPA per dropback (-0.05) among 47 qualifying QBs, so he really wasn't a good real life or fantasy QB…
Ridder's path to success would require more fully leaning into some of his underrated athletic tools, which includes a 4.52 40-yard dash time and a 98th-percentile SPARQ-X score.
His four starts last season left a lot to be desired, but Ridder did average an impressive 43.6 rushing yards per game during his collegiate career at Cincinnati, and rushing production greatly increases a QB's fantasy floor and ceiling.
Ian Hartitz
In addition to his athleticism, another reason for enthusiasm with Ridder is that the team did ramp up both their situation-neutral pass rate and plays per game after benching Mariota:
So how to play it?
I’m not advocating to omega-stack the Falcons in your drafts, but I do think Ridder is going overlooked.
If you take the plunge on London or Pitts, Ridder is the perfect QB2 with an elite QB or a serviceable selection in a spray-and-pray late-round 3QB build.
The margin for error on Robinson and London is pretty small with their pricey ADPs, but there’s basically no risk with Ridder at his current price of free.
If I’m making a bet on any piece of the Falcons’ passing game to be good, Ridder should be coming along for the ride.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall previews the outlooks of two players thrust into marquee roles. It’s their world, can they take advantage?
We are coming close to the end of June and Training Camp is right around the corner, which means a lot of our depth chart questions will be answered soon. We have a clear idea of who the valuable starters are in fantasy football, but what should we think about the players who fell into their new roles?
Dalvin Cook and DeAndre Hopkins were both cut from their respective teams this offseason, leaving the “next man up” to fill a huge void in the roster. There are great opportunities for a few players in 2023, but can they maximize their new role or are they in line to disappoint?
🤔 Alexander Mattison
This one is obvious, but we still need to talk about it.
The Vikings released their four-time Pro Bowler in Cook, which left some pretty big shoes to fill. The obvious answer for taking over the lead back role is Mattison, whose current ADP on Underdog sits at 62. He has put up some big-time fantasy numbers in his limited starts over the years and graded out as PFF’s 12th-best rusher among 59 qualifying RBs in 2022.
Over the weekend, he told SiriusXM NFL Radio that he’s up for his new challenge:
“I'm thankful for having Dalvin in that running back room and challenging me … with that understanding of knowing kind of where my role is going to be I’m going to maximize it.
I've been a lot more prepared in the way of understanding where I'm going to be in the playbook, where I'm going to have to be physically, my stamina.”
Alexander Mattison
Here’s hoping that Mattison (and the coaching staff) gets him more involved in the passing game — after all we are talking about a Vikings backfield that ranked just 22nd in expected PPR points per game last season.
Read on for more on Mattison from Dwain McFarland.
🤔 Marquise Brown
WE KNOW IT’S THE CARDINALS, JUST KEEP READING!
Hopkins got released from the Cardinals almost a month ago, and the six-week sample we had last season with Marquise Brown as the undisputed No. 1 WR during Hopkins’ suspension would make anyone have high hopes. Overall, he worked as the PPR WR5 before breaking his foot.
The (unfortunate) reality is that the Cardinals will likely start the season without quarterback Kyler Murray, which does lower expectations. I like the idea of Brown being a high-risk, high-reward player in 2023, with the most pressing question being when Murray will return to the field.
If he goes on the PUP list, the earliest return would be Week 5. If you’re okay with lower-end production from Brown in the first half of the season with a potential boom during the later half and fantasy playoffs, then I’d say it’s a risk to take.
Looking through the depth chart, the passing game will be operating through Brown and we can expect the Cardinals to be playing from behind with the 11th hardest strength of schedule.
🚗 The Ultimate Fantasy Football Road Trip!
Grab your league-mates and head to "Fantasy Football's Greatest Weekend!
If you are looking for the perfect “road trip” this summer, why not make it to Canton, Ohio from August 11 - 13, 2023 for the Fantasy Football Expo?
The Fantasy Football Expo features over 50 of the top experts in Fantasy Football sharing all of their best insights for every genre of fantasy. Also, you'll get to experience:
- Live Drafts courtesy of DraftNightOut.com
- Kings & Queens Classic Experts Draft
- Flag Football Tournament at The Dome in the Hall of Fame Village
- Fantasy Football Panels with all of the top experts
- Exclusive Parties both Friday and Saturday Night
Grab your buddies, gas up the car, and head to Canton for this opportunity to level up your fantasy game! Get your tickets now for the Early Discount!
📣 Antonio Brown sounds off on the Bucs. What a podcast chair, btw.
📘 Why the Ravens WR group could make history. You can’t accuse the team of not surrounding Lamar with talent.
🧬 Which Bill O’Brien did Bill Belichick hire? The Patriots’ offense depends on it.
🏈 Best teams at avoiding 3rd down in 2022. The Jets are bound to improve, right?
💤 4 super deep best ball sleepers. Load up.
🏃 Your fantasy team needs RBs. Ian & Chris have you covered.
⌚️ The best coaches in 2022 based on in-game decisions. There are some head-scratching surprises...
Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate. What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2? Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds? The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite: it depends. Luckily Dwain is here to break it all down…
RUNNING BACK
💼 Supply and Demand
RBs are going later than ever in Underdog drafts. The top-24 options are going 10 selections later on average compared to 2022. However, as the draft continues, the ADP disparity versus last year dissipates, with RB25 to 48 only going 1.9 picks later.
🏈 RB Strategy Overview
On one hand, seeing players like Josh Jacobs fall to Round 3 seems like an overreaction – especially in a half-PPR format. On the other hand, it is hard to take more than one RB in the first three rounds because, on Underdog, your league mates will continue to pound WRs until they are all gone.
Often, you will find RB to be the best ADP value in your queue when you are on the clock, and if you already have three, it is hard to extract much actual value from the discount. Additionally, late-round RBs have a better chance of ascending in value during the preseason if a starter goes down – something we don’t see with WRs.
Due to these factors, my favorite approach to RB in 2023 is grabbing one high-end option in the first three rounds and then piecing together the rest of my unit by focusing on ADP value after I have four or five WRs.
I do occasionally make exceptions to this rule at the Round 2/3 turn by taking two RBs and have even started with three RBs a few times – two strategies we will discuss more below under Draft Capital Plans.
🏗️ Building Pillars – Values
🎯 Tony Pollard | Round 2
Pollard is my most rostered RB in the first two rounds at 17%.
His explosive playmaking ability and receiving prowess provide him with league-crushing upside. I would be willing to take him as high as late Round 1, and you can get him in late Round 2.
🎯 Rhamondre Stevenson & Friends | Round 3
Similar to Pollard, Stevenson has big-time receiving down chops and the path to 300 touches is wide open with Damien Harris gone via free agency and James Robinson cut. Stevenson profiles like a back we would have spent early Round 2 capital on in previous seasons.
Of course, Stevenson is just one of many great options at RB in the early third round, including Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall. Ultimately, I have a slight preference for Stevenson.
Still, I am diversifying my exposures across this group and using the Best Ball Hub to monitor my most common player combinations so I can mix things up. (And you should be too. PS, ITS FREE)
🥉 Honorable Mentions
Alexander Mattison | Round 6 – It seems folks have been quick to dump on Mattison now that his ADP is at the beginning of Round 6. While he hasn’t been an elite back, his missed tackles forced and explosive rush rate rank in RB1 territory compared to backs since 2012.
He has work to do in the passing game, but the Vikings should be a high-scoring offense providing plenty of TD upside. Plus, we don’t know anything about the other backs on this roster, and none of them have significant draft capital, while Mattison got a nice offseason contract.
Cam Akers | Round 6 – Akers is a replacement-level back, but his late-Round 6 ADP makes him worth consideration. We have seen McVay show a willingness to ride one RB, and over the last three games, he handled 82% of snaps, 73% of rushing attempts and saw a 67% route share on his way to 19.5 PPG.
📓 Draft Capital Guidelines
Remember, these are just guidelines, not hard and fast rules. The basic rule of thumb is to spend less later if you spend more early and vice versa. Everything works on a sliding scale.
Drafted one RB by Round 4 (hopefully by Round 3)
Draft like you nailed your RB1 selection and take the value as it falls
Aim for a minimum of three and a maximum of four RBs before Round 11
Five RBs are my favorite builds starting this way, but six is okay as well, depending on your build and value
Exception: if you draft Mixon as your RB1 in Round 5, assume he pays off like a Round 3 pick and use this same plan
Example RB Room: Tony Pollard (R2), Cam Akers (R7), Zach Charbonnet (R9), Jerome Ford (R14), Gus Edwards (R16)
Drafted zero RBs by Round 4
Build a mix of projection and upside prospects between Round 5 and Round 11, but don’t reach. Example: Akers projects well on expected volume, and Swift offers talent-based upside
Aim for a minimum of three and a maximum of four RBs before Round 11
This can still be a five-RB build if you tack on your fifth option shortly after Round 10. However, it might be best as a 6-RB build if you wait to add No. 5
Note: this will tie up a lot of picks where QBs go, and the WR tiers hit a cliff in Round 9
Example RB Room: D’Andre Swift (R7), Rachaad White (R8), Antonio Gibson (R9), Jerick McKinnon (R11), Jaylen Warren (R12), Gus Edwards (R16)
Get Dwain’s full RB strategy HERE!
