š¤© A WR With High-End Upside
And a HoF daddy to boot...
Live. Laugh. Love QBsā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Poker Now:
QB tunnel vision
Steelers: QB order released, kind of
Rookie Super Model: 100th percentile?!?
It's 4/5. Take it away, Cooterdoodle...
Thereās been a lot of speculation surrounding QBs this offseason. And the questions are endless.
Will Kirk Cousins save Kyle Pitts & Co.?
Can CJ Stroud take the three-headed WR monster to a Super Bowl?
Will Chicagoās 1.01 pick in the 2024 draft elevate their offense (in ways that their 1.11 from 2021 couldnāt)?
Answers? I donāt got āem. But I do have QB tunnel vision.
šµ QB Tunnel Vision
We have been absolutely gridlocked into a QB-heavy point of view since the Achillesā injury heard round the world during Aaron Rodgersā first drive of Week 1 back at the start of 2023. And rightfully so.
The entire position has felt like a never-ending carousel of badness. Bad plays, bad boys, bad luck, and even a few bad backups.Ā
But our collective QB obsession, as of late, has been heavily turned towards the future. While the NFL draft and everything to come is exciting, thereās still plenty to learn from the play calling of the past.
I hate to say it, but weāve got a case of tunnel vision, baby. And itās making us nervous.
šØ Panic Mode?
With a total of 66 (3 more wouldāve been nice) QBs clocking in as NFL starters in 2023, we were in a fantasy football frenzy. Lineups were churning. Waivers were burning. We couldnāt keep up!
If you drafted a starting QB that started every gameā¦ Damn it felt good, didnāt it?
But with so many rotations within the same position, weāve come to believe that QB is a very critical āget it right on draft dayā pick.
But this carousel isnāt an entirely new trend.
Starting NFL quarterbacks per season:
2023: 66
2022:Ā 68
2021:Ā 62
And whether these numbers are influenced in the long-term by the additional regular season games, or by a combination of other factors, it still begs the question:
How do we use this information for fantasy football purposes?
š See the Bigger Picture
While this doesnāt apply solely to the QB position, our main safeguard to make it through the offseason unscathed will be to triangulate the data.
In other words, we need to gobble up as much information as we can to avoid getting tunnel vision. Rookies (more on that below), vets, strength of schedule, coaching changes, ADP, cryptic WR tweetsā¦ All of it.
Itās why weāve cultivated a team of analysts who have been developing a variety of tools and rankings here. You need to gobble up the past, the present, and the future to win that championship.
But you know that already, donāt you? Itās why youāre hereā¦
ā ļøā„ļø Free to EnterĀ Poker Tournament ā£ļøā¦ļø
Tonight at 9 pm EST!
The Poker Now $1,000 Freeroll Tournament may have filled up but you can still get on the waiting list! Make sure you don't miss out on the next great event on Poker Now by signing up for the Poker Now newsletter here with one simple click!
Poker Now is a free-to-play poker site with nearly 1M players from around the world. PokerĀ Now makes it easy to play poker with friends and even create your own private poker club!
š¤Ā The Chargers are a dream landing spot for rookie RBsā¦but which RB fits best?
šŗ In any other year, would Rome Odunze be the rookie WR1?Ā Letās dive in.
š¬Ā A slight dig at Diggs?Ā Canāt we all just get along?
š¤ÆĀ The Steelers QB pecking order is inā¦Ā At least jersey-wise.Ā
7ļøā£ Seven years already? What a NICE draft pick.
šĀ Rashee Rice update. His lawyer shares details.
š¼Ā The 1.01 is packed and ready!Ā He only has one trip to take.
šļø Ohhh, Stefon Diggs did some negotiating.Ā What a deal.
š¶Ā No one is safe from the mouths of babes.Ā Not even a 49er.
Fantasy Life head of analytics Dwain āThe Rockā McFarland has been in the lab GRINDING to evaluate the incoming class of rookie WRs. Many would simply put together a model of sorts to accomplish this task, but Dwain? That wouldnāt be nearlyā¦ super enough.
Presenting: Fantasy Lifeās Rookie WR Super Model.Ā
š„ Tier 1 ā Superstar Traits With High-End WR1 Upside
šŖĀ Marvin Harrison Jr. | Ohio State
WR Super Model: 100th percentile
Age: 22.1
Height: 6ā3ā
Weight: 209
šĀ Pedigree
Program Quality Index: 84th percentile
NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 4, Round 1
247 Recruit Player Rating:Ā 4 of 5 stars
Harrison is arguably the most well-known WR prospect of the last decade. He is the son of an NFL Hall of Famer and was in the national spotlight almost every Saturday, playing at Ohio State.
š¤Ā Production
Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 70th percentile
Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 81st percentile
Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 77th percentile
Harrison played in 12 games as a true freshman, but his route participation was limited to 28%, with Wilson, Olave and Smith-Njigba providing stiff competition. However, at 20, he stepped into a full-time role in his sophomore campaign, and the production followed.Ā
That year, he broke out with a whopping 30% target shareāthe highest mark from any Buckeye since 2014āand registered an elite 3.08 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA). In his age-21 season, Harrison topped those tallies with a 31% target share and 3.18 RYPTPA.
š®Ā Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates
Underdog ADP: WR10, Round 2
Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR1, Pick 1
Harrison has the highest score in the history of the WR Super Model if we include his expected NFL Draft capital. He will surpass Chaseās old high score if he goes fourth overall.
šļøāāļø Malik Nabers | LSU
WR Super Model: 95th percentile
Age: 21.1
Height: 6ā0ā
Weight: 200
šĀ Pedigree
Program Quality Index: 80th percentile
NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 5, Round 1
247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars
Nabers doesnāt come with the same pent-up anticipation as Harrison, but he is gaining steam as we get closer to the draft. Some NFL Draft and fantasy analysts have even moved Nabers to the WR1 position in their rankings. While some prospect fatigue is occurring with Harrison, Nabersā profile has merit.
š¤Ā Production
Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 76th percentile
Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 51st percentile
Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 71st percentile
Nabers ranks No. 1 in the 2024 class for adjusted career RYPTPA, a metric that accounts for age, aDOT, alignment, QB play, and quality of teammates (target competition). It is the most robust production measurement in our database, and no other production metric carries as much signal for future fantasy points.
The 21-year-old WR carved out a 52% route participation as an 18-year-oldĀ freshman, and while he didnāt post jaw-dropping RYPTPA (1.18), he made a substantial impact on a per-route basis. His 1.95 yards per route run (YPRR) was 0.40 above expectation for his age. As a sophomore, Nabers upped his RYPTPA to 2.12 and then erupted as a junior, posting a mark of 3.81.
š®Ā Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates
Underdog ADP: WR23, Round 3
Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR1, Pick 2
When you add everything together, Nabers grades out close to Harrison in the Super Model, including draft capital. He is the No. 3 graded prospect since 2018.Ā
A Tier 2 WR that was SO CLOSE to Tier 1
You can feel his energy & excitement. Itās palpable, and contagious
