Zero RB is the bee's knees...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bud Light:

• Two heavy favorites that could still throw plenty.
• Rankings Update. Two new top-24 RB options.
• Dear Pete. Solving Thursday Night football.
• Bets from the group chat. MANdrews SZN.
• OWS. Eno + G = Geno.
• Its 10/15. Take it away Dwain McFarland...

We have multiple players rising up the rankings this weekend, but one stands head and shoulders above the rest in Darrell Henderson.

Cam Akers won't play due to personal reasons, leaving the door open for a hefty workload for Henderson. Be sure to check out the rankings update for a full breakdown of where Henderson and others now stand heading into Week 6 action.

Speaking of Week 6 action, we have a very interesting slate. Only two contests offer a game total of over 48 points, creating some doubt about which situations are ripe with fantasy upside.

However, despite the lack of shootouts, we have two heavily favored teams with juicy implied point totals.

➡️ Rams (-10) vs. Panthers

Thanks to the huge spread, the Rams carry the fifth-highest implied point total, which bodes well for TD opportunities all around.

Los Angeles runs the ball 43% of plays when they lead by four or more points, which is 8 percentage points below the league average. That wouldn't be ideal if the backfield was split among multiple ball carriers, but with Akers now out, the pathway is clear for a significant workload for Henderson.

With the Rams still willing to pass when ahead, that means Cooper Kupp might not see any opportunity drop off. As usual, he has monster-game upside (not that any of you needed me to tell you that).

➡️ Buccaneers (-9.5) at Steelers

Tampa Bay provides the No. 2 implied points behind Buffalo on the Week 6 slate.

This spot feels eerily similar to the Bills and Steelers matchup last weekend. We have a pass-happy team heavily favored against Pittsburgh.

The Buccaneers drop back to pass 62% (fifth-most) when leading by four or more points in 2022 — a number that matches their 2021 campaign. We can expect Tampa Bay to keep the pedal to the metal in Pittsburgh, especially with Minkah Fitzpatrick out of commission.

We could see Mike Evans or Chris Godwin score multiple times despite playing with a lead, and Leonard Fournette is a top-five lock.

Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

Risers

📈 RB – Eno Benjamin

James Conner (ribs) and Darrel Williams (knee) won’t play this weekend, leaving Benjamin with an opportunity to lead the Cardinals’ backfield. In Week 5, Benjamin took over in the second half due to injuries and posted a top-24 fantasy finish with 14.3 points.

Arizona faces Seattle, who allows the most fantasy points per game on the ground in non-overtime play (26.8 points per game). Benjamin sports a solid 21% target rate (TPRR), so we should see substantial involvement in the passing attack in a game with the second-highest total (50.5) on the slate.

Expect Benjamin to handle 60-70% of the workload and provide high-end RB2 value.

📈 RB – Darrell Henderson

Cam Akers (personal) is out against the Panthers for Week 6. That means Henderson should see a heavy workload, with Malcolm Brown rotating in for relief. In his last 11 games as the primary back, Henderson averaged 15.4 fantasy points.

The Rams haven’t been an effective rushing team this season but are 10-point favorites, and Carolina allows the third-most non-overtime rushing attempts per game (33.4). 

Henderson should see plenty of opportunities this weekend and is a low-end RB2 option.

📈 RB – Alvin Kamara

The Saints won’t have Michael Thomas (toe) or Jarvis Landry (ankle) again this weekend, and Andy Dalton will start. That recipe led to an old-school Kamara workload in Week 5, where the veteran back saw a mouth-watering 25% target share on his way to 25.9 fantasy points.

The Bengals' defense has been stingy against the run, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game on the ground in non-overtime play (10.8). That and the low implied point total (20.0) keep projections around Kamara in check. 

Kamara is a mid-range RB1 who could boom in the passing attack in Week 6.

📈 WR – Ja’Marr Chase

Tee Higgins (ankle) is questionable for the Bengals’ tilt in New Orleans. He managed to work in a limited fashion at Friday’s practice but missed Wednesday and Thursday. That puts him on the more doubtful side of the equation, and if he plays, he won’t likely be 100%.

With the Saints’ star CB Marshon Lattimore also out, this could be an eruption game for Chase. The second-year WR posted a 33% target share last weekend, with Higgins leaving the game early after trying to play through the injury.

Chase is capable of the No. 1 overall WR box score on any slate, but things are lining up exceptionally well this weekend.

Fallers

📉 WR – Joshua Palmer

The Chargers don’t play until Monday night, and Keenan Allen practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday and Friday. He is questionable for the game, and the Chargers are playing it safe with Allen, but this still casts doubt over Palmer’s value in Week 6.

Palmer is now a high-end WR5, and fantasy managers should start options like Isaiah McKenzie, Michael Gallup and Elijah Moore instead.

Monitoring

👀 RB – Jonathan Taylor

Taylor (ankle) registered two limited practices to end the week but remains questionable on the injury report. If he can’t go, Nyheim Hines is progressing well through the concussion protocol and would carry low-end RB2 value in PPR leagues if Taylor doesn’t suit up.

If neither Taylor nor Hines plays, Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay are RB3 options.

👀 RB – Damien Harris

Initially, Harris was expected to miss multiple games but has practiced in a limited fashion all week. He is notorious for getting knocked out of action and returning the next week, so it is hard to rule him out completely.

Of course, this could be the typical Patriots’ gamesmanship where everyone is considered limited to keep the opponent guessing. Rhamondre Stevenson is currently my RB6. If Harris is active, he will move to mid-range RB2 territory.

👀 WR – CeeDee Lamb

Lamb (hip) popped up on the injury report on Friday. However, he seems likely to play based on comments from Stephen Jones. 

It is a Sunday night game, so be sure to have a backup plan from Dallas, Philadelphia, Denver or the Chargers if possible.

Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com.

Dear Pete, Thursday Night Football has been disappointing this year. I know weekdays are important, but I can’t think of anything that Thursday specifically brings to the table after everything I have seen these last few weeks. Tuesdays are for Tacos. Wednesdays are hump days. Maybe Thursday just isn’t meant to carry the weight of the football world. Should we introduce a new day of the week and bump Thursday out of the rotation? — Anonymous Weekday Lover

DEAR ANONYMOUS WEEKDAY LOVER: I appreciate your restraint in saying TNF has been “disappointing” this year. You’d be plenty justified to say it has been “atrocious,” “offensive,” or even “the darkest moment in the history of broadcasting.”

In the past two weeks, we’ve seen the Commanders and Bears combined for 19 points and the Broncos and Colts combined for 21 points. To put things in a horrifying perspective, Taysom Hill scored more TDs (3) last week on 9 touches than four teams combined to score on TNF in the past two weeks (2).

I know we always say that “bad football” is better than no football altogether, but TNF is really putting that axiom to the test this year.

At what point does the league admit that forcing teams to play a game Sunday, recover, travel, practice, and play another game four days later hurts the product on the field? We don’t need to scrap it altogether, but I think we need to institute some kind of scheduling mandate that provides teams with at least six days in between games.

Either that or we need to run with your idea and create a weekly Thursday holiday to take the pressure off. Thin Mint Thursdays, anyone?

Hey Pete! I’m a 68-year-old widow/single gal, and I love football and fantasy! I’m in a family fantasy league (12 years now), and I’m a 4-time champion——no one else is a 2-time winner, ha! (I’m sure my son, son-in-law, nephews, and great-nephews are embarrassed!!). I have a 3-2 record and am in first place now with the most total points. Just writing to give a shout-out to all senior ladies like me who know and love football! And oh yeah, Let’s go Braves!!! Take care. —  Old Gal Loves Fantasy.

DEAR OLD GAL LOVES FANTASY: I know you didn’t ask a question per se, but you better believe I’m going to provide you with this forum to dunk on all of the men in your life who you are whooping in fantasy every year. 

Step it up, fellas. OGLF ain’t messing around.

💪 Don’t say Tom Brady couldn’t make it in the old NFL. He did. Literally.

👀 This WR is in rare company. Small sample sizes are fun, am I right? 

🐐 The GOAT is high on this KC receiver. Maybe we should be too.

🌠 This former NFL WR is on tour. Did you get your ticket yet?

🤔 More targets coming for this stud WR? Playing WR more might help.

💂‍♂️ Have these two ever been seen in a room together? Royalty.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for Week 1...

🔥 Mark Andrews Over 70.5 Receiving yards -115 

For me, it’s simple. With Rashod Bateman on the sidelines for a second straight week, it’s time once again to bet Mark Andrews receiving props. 

Outside of Lamar Jackson, Andrews is the clear engine of this Ravens’ offense, and that's shown by his massive 34% target share and his targets per route run rate of 29%. For perspective, Cooper Kupp has a target share of 34% and a targets per route run rate of 29%, and Justin Jefferson clocks in at a 30% target share with a targets per route run rate of 26%. 

So we know the usage is great, but let’s talk about the matchup vs the New York Football Giants.

From an on-paper perspective, the Giants have been relatively stingy to opposing TEs this season, giving up the 9th fewest fantasy points to the position. But as you pull back the curtains on the Giants’ schedule, you can see that Robert Tonyan is the “best” fantasy TE that the Giants have faced this season. With a small sample and mediocre competition, I’m completely ignoring this DVP ranking in my analysis. 

The newly updated Fantasy Life Prop Tool has Andrews projected for 81.25 receiving yards and gives a 5.3% edge on the over. Also, our friends at BetMGM are about 2 yards lower than the industry average on this line, so grab that value while you can. 

🔥 Quick Picks on BetMGM

• Christian McCaffrey over 5.5 Receptions +120 
• Devin Duvernay over 37.5 Receiving yards -115
• Josh Allen over 2.5 Passing TDs +140
• Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 Passing TDs +130

Dwprix is a research expert at OWS, and every other week he'll be dropping by the Fantasy Life office to give you his best DFS value plays of the week.

Pricing can change the value of a play between DraftKings and Fanduel. Recognizing what plays are better values on each site based on scoring rules, the amount of cap space a player takes up, and points per dollar can create a sizable edge when building rosters. Here are Week 6 players that are best utilized on DraftKings or Fanduel.

😎 Geno Smith

• FD $7.4k, 12.3% // DK $5.7k, 11.4% // Value on DK

Geno has the 2nd highest salary multiplier (3.7x) of all QBs based on his average production (21.2) and price this week. He takes up 0.9% less of the cap on DraftKings and is the 10th-priced QB. On Fanduel, he’s the 9th priced QB.

😎 Eno Benjamin

• FD $6.3k, 10.5% // DK $4.6k, 9.2% // Value on DK

James Conner is out this week, and Benjamin should get the majority of the RB usage. He’s a good value on both sites, but he’s a little bit better on DraftKings, where he’s only $4.6k. Benjamin is the 37th-priced RB on DraftKings but the 19th on Fanduel.

😎 Aaron Jones

• FD $7.3k, 12.2% // DK $7.6k, 15.2% // Value on FD

Jones takes up 3% less of the cap on Fanduel than he does on DraftKings. Jones is the 5th-priced RB on DraftKings but only the 10th on Fanduel. His price stayed the same on DraftKings this week but dropped $300 on Fanduel.

😎 Tyler Lockett

• FD $7.5k, 12.5% // DK $5.6k, 11.2% // Value on DK

Lockett takes up 1.3% less of the cap on DraftKings, and he’s already hit the 100-yard bonus in two games this season. Lockett has the 2nd highest salary multiplier (3.5x) of all WRs based on his average production this season (17.9 DK points) and salary this week.

😎 George Kittle

• FD $5.7k, 9.5% // DK $5.1k, 10.2% // Value on FD

Kittle is the 8th-highest-priced TE on Fanduel and 3rd on DraftKings. He takes up 0.7% less of the cap on Fanduel. His price went down $800 since last week, and he’s the cheapest he’s been all season on Fanduel. 

🔨 Quick Hitters

Value on DK:

• Kirk Cousins: FD $7.6k, 12.7% // DK $6.0k, 12.0%  
• Rhamondre Stevenson: FD $7.5k, 12.5% // DK $6.0k, 12.0%      
• Cade Otton: FD $5.0k, 8.3% // DK $2.9k, 5.8% 

Value on FD:

• Matthew Stafford: FD $7.2k, 12.0% // DK $6.2k, 12.4%  
• Jonathan Taylor: FD $8.0k, 13.3% // DK $8.0k, 16.0%
• Gabe Davis: FD $6.9k, 11.5% // DK $6.5k, 13.0% 

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