🤮 Backup QBs, Gross
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we highlight backup QBs and their ATS value, player props for Week 7, and more.
I hope you’re READY for (reportedly) Brian Hoyer vs. (disgustingly) Tyler Tyson Bagent…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Prop Drop:
- Backup QBs: Their ATS values.
- Player Props! Receiving yardz…
- Bets from the Group Chat: A +721 parlay for the degens!
- Quick Hitter: A bet to HAMMER!
- SNF: Game of the year?
- It’s 10/22: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
This weekend, the NFL will treat us to an instant classic between the Raiders and Bears at storied Soldier Field, which has borne witness to such memorable moments as…
I can’t keep this up.
This game will likely suck. It features two backup QBs in Hoyer and Bagent (aka “T-Bag.”)
As low as the total of 37.5 is, that might still be too high.
⬇️ Totals Are DOWN
Last week, unders went 12-2-1 (59.3% ROI, per Action Network). This year, unders are 56-37-1 (14.9% ROI). Only in Week 2 has fading points not been profitable.
And last year unders were 158-125-1 (6.9% ROI, including playoffs), marking the most profitable season for unders in at least the past two decades.
In points per game per team, we have seen a drastic dropoff in scoring since the pandemic-fueled high of 2020.
- 2020: 24.8
- 2021: 23.0
- 2022: 21.9
- 2023: 21.8
For context, the average was 22.0 in 2008 — Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter. It’s not an exaggeration to say that, since last season, league-wide scoring has regressed 15 years.
What’s the cause for the current lack of points?
🤔 Why Has Scoring Dropped?
In this week’s “Bigger Picture” Betting Life episode, I talked with Rob Pizzola (one of our friends from the Hammer Betting Network) about all the unders we’ve seen this year.
Many of last week’s unders were related to weather, but there are also other factors.
Defenses have increasingly employed more two-high shells over the past few seasons in an attempt to limit explosive plays and slow offenses down. Even though the NFL is a passing league, the vertical pass might be dead.
But it’s not just defense that has driven down scoring. It’s also QB skill.
Since the heyday of 2020, many respected veteran pocket-passing QBs have either retired or declined, and most of the young QBs to enter the league in the subsequent seasons have failed to develop as expected.
And then there are the QB injuries, which compound the problem.
Kyler Murray (knee, IR) has been out since the second half of last year. Rodgers (Achilles, IR) and Anthony Richardson (shoulder, IR) are out for the long term, and Justin Fields (thumb) and Jimmy Garoppolo (back) are out this week.
Deshaun Watson (shoulder) and Daniel Jones (neck) have already missed time this year and are questionable (though likely) to play this week. Joe Burrow (calf) has struggled while playing through an injury, and Ryan Tannehill (ankle) seems unlikely to return to action immediately following the Week 7 bye.
Scoring is down in part because today’s QBs are underwhelming — and getting injured.
Early last season — before the under onslaught was in full effect — Evan Abrams posted a research piece noting that unders outperform in games started by backup QBs, and I imagine that’s still the case now (maybe even more so).
🤏 What are Backup QBs Worth to the Spread?
So backup QBs are good for under bettors, but what about spread bettors?
What are some of these backups — Hoyer, Bagent, et al. — worth against the spread (ATS)?
Before the season started, Ben Fawkes talked with eight bookmakers to get the difference in point value between all 32 NFL starters and their backups.
And Robby Greer has tracked QB ATS value going back to 1999.
Using their information and making some adjustments of my own, I’ve reached the following ATS valuations for all the backup QBs who might play this weekend (minus Zach Wilson) as well as a few we might see at some point this season (listed most valuable to least valuable).
Note: These valuations compare the backups directly to the starters. Example: I have Chiefs QB Blaine Gabbert at -7.9. That means he’s worth -7.9 points relative to starter Patrick Mahomes ATS.
- Jacoby Brissett (vs. Sam Howell): +1.5
- Gardner Minshew (vs. Anthony Richardson): +0.4
- Taylor Heinicke (vs. Desmond Ridder): +0.0
- Jameis Winston (vs. Derek Carr): -0.9
- Tyrod Taylor (vs. Daniel Jones): -1.2
- Bailey Zappe (vs. Mac Jones): -1.5
- Brian Hoyer (vs. Jimmy Garoppolo): -2.0
- Malik Willis (vs. Ryan Tannehill): -3.1
- Malik Cunningham (vs. Mac Jones): -3.1
- Joshua Dobbs (vs. Kyler Murray): -3.3
- Jarrett Stidham (vs. Russell Wilson): -3.7
- Tyson Bagent (vs. Justin Fields): -3.8
- P.J. Walker (vs. Deshaun Watson): -5.5
Gross.
Just looking at this list makes me want to bet some unders. And if the gambling gods grant us mercy, we might not need to consult this list too often this year.
For everything you need for Week 7 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with his top five player props. Here are a couple of his favorites, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
👆 Gabe Davis Over 35.5 Yards Receiving (-125, PointsBet)
- Aggregate Projection: 50.2
- Cutoff: 38.5
Davis’ prop of 35.5 yards isn’t just his lowest mark this year. It’s also the lowest mark he has had since last year.
Just last week, his prop was 43.5 yards — but then he had a season-low 21 yards receiving … and now his prop has dropped significantly.
It’s an overreaction.
In his two games since last year with a receiving prop in the 30s — Weeks 15-16 (37.5 and 36.5 yards) — he had 56 and 45 yards receiving.
Davis has an explosive 11.4 yards per target this year, and for his career he has an efficient mark of 9.4 yards: He doesn’t need many targets to have a real chance to hit the over.
And this year he’s averaging a respectable five targets per game.
Plus, I like his matchup, as the Patriots are notably wounded in the secondary: CBs Christian Gonzalez (shoulder, IR), Jack Jones (hamstring, IR), and Marcus Jones (shoulder, IR) are all on the reserve list, and CB Jonathan Jones (knee) is questionable to play given that he exited Week 6 early with an injury after missing Weeks 2-4 with an ankle issue.
Davis is one of my Week 7 fantasy favorites.
👇 Kadarius Toney Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
- Aggregate Projection: 26.9
- Cutoff: 27.5
Come on.
Toney is yet to play more than 42% of the offensive snaps in any game this year.
He has 4.2 targets per game, but an RB-like average depth of target of 2.2 yards makes it really hard for him to accumulate receiving yards. For the year, Toney has just 55 air yards.
He’s a theoretical playmaker, but Toney has just 3.7 yards per target this year and 6.3 since joining the Chiefs last year.
In 10 games with Kansas City in 2022 (including playoffs), Toney surpassed the 29.5-yard receiving threshold just thrice. In six games this year, he has gone over the mark only once.
And here’s what’s wild: His prop of 29.5 yards is higher than all of the other marks he has had this year except for the 30.5-yard prop he had in Week 1. Despite his performance record, Toney is priced near his ceiling.
SEE THE REST OF FREEDMAN’S PROPS!
🏈 For Sports Betting Goodness...
We recommend you sign up for the Prop Drop!
What's Prop Drop all about?
At Prop Drop, we're passionate about the thrill of sports betting and making it as easy and profitable as possible for you. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, Prop Drop is here to provide you with valuable insights, daily player prop picks, and more to elevate your sports betting game.
Here's what you can expect from Prop Drop:
- 📊 Expert Player Prop Picks: I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets each week, carefully researched and backed by data.
- 📈 Real-Time Updates: Our picks and insights are updated in real-time, but you will want to act fast after our drops before the line moves. Especially once the official picks drop on Twitter (always 15-30 minutes after the newsletter).
- 🎯 Quick and Easy Betting: Tail our picks in less than 60 seconds, and watch your winnings stack up.
Welcome to Week 7 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit as much information as possible from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s a selfish endeavor, as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers.
Just like last week, we’ll take the three best bets (decided by me of course) and make a nice three-way community parlay for us to sweat, as a group.
We will certainly have some losing weeks as we go, but last week was not one of them…
Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
It’s always nice to start with some momentum and this week the parlay will have some fresh faces in it (the pressure is on). The picks for Week 7 are below.
🏴☠️ LaMarca Likes: Buccaneers -2.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: -2.5 (-115)
Matt was absolutely distraught last week when I left his Seahawks bet out of the group parlay.
My spidey senses were tingling on Joe Burrow, though, and leaving Lamarca out of Week 6 allowed us to cash the first parlay of the year. But I’d be dumb to leave Matt’s bets out every week. He’s been crushing college football, among other things, and this week he has the same take on the Buccaneers/Falcons game as myself.
Desmond Ridder has not been a good player to back on the road. For his NFL career, he’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road — and for what it’s worth he also had a losing ATS record on the road in college (per The Action Network).
The Buccaneers are nowhere near perfect but have a top-12 rush defense and will likely force the Falcons to try and beat them through the air, a successful formula against the Falcons of late (who are 1-3 in their last four games).
It may be gross but I like the Bucs to win and likely cover this game.
⛏️ Freedman Likes: Steelers Moneyline (+140, BetMGM)
- Play to: +135
I admit, I like the Rams vibes, and they have been outperforming, but they’re also just 3-3 and have losses against the 49ers and Eagles at home already – two teams with winning records and above-average defenses (in overall DVOA rankings). The Steelers fit both of those criteria (3-2 and 11th in overall defensive DVOA).
As Matt pointed out himself, the Steelers are out of a bye and getting healthy.
I am on board with this one.
The Rams have a tough schedule ahead and may be a good target in futures markets after Week 8 but, for now, I don’t think picking against them as favorites (with a top defense on the other side) is a poor idea at all.
⬆️ Geoff Likes: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
- Fantasy Life aggregate projection: 16.9 rush yards
- Play to: over 13.5 (-115)
Yes, I am selfishly taking the last spot again. When you hit a Zach Wilson over (that does not involve INTs or soccer moms) you deserve a second act. This week, I am once again targeting a terrible offense in the AFC East and going with Rhamondre Stevenson to smash in the receiving yards department.
Despite the Patriots ineptitude on offense, there is a lot to like about this prop. Stevenson in Week 6 posted season highs in route rate (59%) and target share (20%) and this week will be taking on a Bills defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. It’s worth noting that Stevenson averaged 5.5 rec and 26 receiving yards against Buffalo last year.
Let’s hope for a fast-paced game with plenty of dump-offs.
🤝 Week 7 Group Parlay: +721 (BetMGM)
- Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)
- Steelers Moneyline (+140)
- Stevenson over 12.5 receiving yards (-120)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account!
Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 7 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Rob Pizzola…
🎥 I want this man to win a Super Bowl: The King of the Nerds!
🦪 This isn’t a sport, but it should be. I mean, at least you can bet on it.
📺 Last minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.
⚔️ “It is truly amazing how stupid some people are.” When a sportsbook calls out someone for saying something they know nothing about.
☀️ It’s from the summer, but it feels more relevant than ever. Oh my, check out the replies and quotes.
🌽 I wouldn’t want to live in Iowa right now: An amazing game-winning punt return TD! — but it didn’t count.
🌪️ “Turning and turning in the widening gyre”: This team continues to have tremendously poor luck.
⚾️ A baseball item, for the numerical sickos: Relievers are probably pitching too much in the playoffs.
🕶️ “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.” I wouldn’t bet this — but you can imagine what it would be like.
🎧 The worst bad beat I’ve ever heard of… followed by the new worst bad beat I’ve ever heard of.
The Week 7 SNF nightcap features what might end up being the game of the year between the Eagles and Dolphins. Matt LaMarca is here to break it down from a betting angle with his best bets…
🐬 Dolphins at Eagles: Under 51.5 (-110, BetMGM)
It’s definitely scary to target the under in a Dolphins game. Their six contests have averaged more than 63 points per game, and when they go over they tend to go way over. That said, they’re still just 4-2 to the over this season.
In general, it has been a historic start to the year for unders. They’ve gone 56-37-1 through the first six-plus weeks, good for a +14.9% return on investment. Unders were also phenomenal last season (151-119-1; +7.0% ROI), so the sportsbooks have struggled to adjust to the way teams are currently playing.
Additionally, primetime unders have been a smash spot for the past few years. The public tends to love to bet on offense, and Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football get plenty of public action. Since the start of 2019, unders in Sunday and Monday Night Football have gone a remarkable 94-57-3. That means that a $100 bettor would be up nearly $3,000 if they simply took the under in each of those contests.
I think the Eagles should be able to control the time of possession with their rushing attack, which should lead to a few long, sustained drives. The Dolphins’ offense also won’t look as explosive as they have against some of the league’s cellar-dwellers. Add it all up, and points might be a bit harder to come by than expected.
⬇️ Sunday Night Football Prop Bet: Raheem Mostert Under 13.5 Carries (-114, FanDuel)
The Dolphins rushing attack has been phenomenal this season, with Mostert leading the way. That said, there are two potential pitfalls for him this week.
First is the matchup. The Eagles defense may not be as good as they were last season, but they’re still solid on the ground. They’re 12th in rushing Success Rate against, and they’ve held five of their first six opponents to 89 yards or fewer. They’ve been a bit more vulnerable against the pass, so it might make more sense for the Dolphins to try and exploit them that way.
Second, Mostert will face a bit more competition for touches this week. The team is still without breakout sensation De’Von Achane, but Jeff Wilson Jr. has been activated from Injured Reserve. He’s not as big of a threat to Mostert’s touches as Achane, but he should still siphon off enough carries to keep Mostert under 13.5.
Mostert had 17 carries last week, but he’s still gone under 13.5 in four of six games this season. I expect the Dolphins to have a bit fewer possessions than usual, and with the added competition for carries, it makes the under a solid selection.
