BEST Bijan Robinson landing spots
A first-round RB? In this economy?
Would be a lot cooler if fantasy football championships came with a green jacket...
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Podcast with Ian Hartitz and Chris Allen:
- The two best Bijan Robinson landing spots
- TE Rookie Super Model: Dalton Kincaid TE1
- 2023 TE Tiers: Travis Kelce stands alone at the top
- Sean Tucker Rookie Profile. An under-the-radar RB
- Our NFL Mock Draft. From a Fantasy & Betting Perspective.
- It's 4/7. Take it away, Ian Hartitz...
Texas RB Bijan Robinson is special. Fantasy Life CEO Eliot Crist introduced the first-team AP All-American in his dynasty rookie profile with the following statement:
“At 5’11 and 215 lbs. with 4.46 speed, it's as if Bijan Robinson were built in a lab to play RB. With elite athleticism and college production, Robinson is a near-lock to be the first RB selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. If he's not, it would be a bigger upset than Purdue's loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA tournament.”
All 32 NFL teams would be better off having Robinson in their RB room; NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah ranks him as the third-best overall prospect in the class.
Unfortunately (for now), there’s no way to clone him. Imagine what the first round might look like if we could.
First mock draft of the year! #NFLDraft https://t.co/PXCqdY8prY
Today’s goal: Where would Robinson’s most fun landing spots be in terms of his potential fantasy value?
Spoiler: The floor is high anywhere he lands, but some offenses offer a more fantasy-friendly combination of 1.) scoring upside and 2.) shallow depth at the position.
The following two teams are my personal favorite dream landing spots and would lead to Robinson entering fantasy drafts as a near consensus top-five pick at the position.
🐅 Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals let Samaje Perine walk in free agency and don’t appear to be on the best terms with Joe Mixon at the moment.
Specifically, Bengals EVP Katie Blackburn recently said, “Right now, he’s (Mixon) on the team.” I don’t want to stir up too much drama, but the way she said it was not great!
Off-the-field concerns aside, the Bengals can save north of $10 million against the salary cap by designating Mixon as a post-June 1 cut.
This decision would open up a borderline erotic workhorse role for a lucky someone. The following leaderboard reflects the top RBs in expected PPR points per game from 2022; these backs had the most fantasy-friendly workloads independent of what they did with those touches:
Austin Ekeler (20.4 expected PPR points per game)
Mixon (19)
Christian McCaffrey (18.6)
Saquon Barkley (17.9)
Josh Jacobs (17.4)
Subtracting Mixon from the equation leaves a true every-down role available inside of the league’s reigning seventh-ranked scoring offense. The team’s trio of talented WRs will certainly be prioritized in the passing game; that said, Mixon and Perine did combine for 126 targets last season.
🦅 Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders took his talents to Carolina, leaving the Eagles with ex-Seahawks’ RB Rashaad Penny alongside incumbent backups Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell and Trey Sermon.
It’s easy to see the allure with Penny; he’s been incredibly efficient when healthy and accordingly boasts a mouth-watering highlight film.
Still, his contract is a one-year, $3.5M deal with just $600,000 guaranteed. That’s life for an RB who has played in just 42 of a possible 82 regular season games since entering the league back in 2018.
Maybe the Eagles aren’t done adding to their RB room. Fantasy Life’s fearless leader Matthew Berry noted the following about this backfield in his ”23 most interesting things he learned at the combine” article:
“One thing that was interesting was both sources told me the “running back by committee” approach that Philly used the last couple of seasons was more about a lack of confidence in Sanders handling a massive workload, both from a health point of view and concerns on fumbling. If Philly were to land a “star running back” from the draft (like if they somehow wound up with Bijan Robinson) they would ride that guy in a big way. In other words, a RBBC is not Sirianni's preferred way to deploy running backs but rather what he felt he had to do given who they had on the roster.”
A workhorse role inside of the league’s reigning second-ranked scoring offense behind PFF’s top-ranked offensive line from 2022, is that something you might be interested in?
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Batman and Robin won't help you navigate the Fantasy Football streets, but we know two superheroes who will...
Who, you may ask?...
The superhero duo of Ian Hartitz and Chris Allen are teaming up once a week to bring you the latest breaking news, data dives, draft strategy, and more to help you dominate your Fantasy Football leagues.
"TELL ME MORE!" You got it...
WHO: Ian Hartitz and Chris Allen
WHAT: The (BRAND NEW) Fantasy Life Podcast with Ian & Chris
WHEN: LIVE every Thursday at 12:15 PM EST
WHERE: Fantasy Life Live on YouTube
What's that? You don't want to wait until next Thursday? Good news - you don't have to.
Catch Ian and Chris' debut episode on the Fantasy Life Live YouTube Channel, just don't be caught too off guard if they actually are wearing capes...
With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, Dwain has been hard at work building out the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model to help us identify the best prospects based on historical collegiate data and expected draft capital. Today, we dive into TEs.
🥇 Tier 1
🦸 Dalton Kincaid | Utah | 6’4 and 246 lbs.
Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 90th percentile
Underdog ADP: TE23, Round 17
Rookie Rank: TE3, No. 26 Overall (Per Fantasy Pros Rookie Rankings)
Over the last two seasons, Brock Bowers of Georgia was the only TE to produce more than Kincaid against Power Five competition. Per PFF data, Kincaid delivered 1,134 yards and 12 TDs with a 2.29 YPRR.
There have been rumors of Kincaid slipping out of Round 1 in the NFL draft after skipping combine and pro day tests due to a small back fracture he suffered at the end of last season. However, the latest mock draft data still suggests late-first or early-second-round capital.
The model loves Kincaid thanks to his 74th-percentile career YPRR (2.32) and 86th-percentile best YPRR (3.00). After draft capital, no other metric correlated more strongly to future fantasy production than those two metrics since the 2017 draft class.
When you pair that with his 82nd-percentile explosive target rate (30%) and a plus-10-yard aDOT (10.6), Kincaid has the profile of a TE that could translate targets into elite production. He can work all three levels of the field. Almost 15% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield, five percentage points higher than the NCAA average for TEs with at least 200 routes.
Kincaid will be 23.9 years old when the NFL season starts, making him one of the older rookies in the class. However, he got a late start in his football career, not playing at the high school level until his senior year.
He played his first two seasons as a walk-on at the University of San Diego – where he was an FCS All-American – before Utah offered him a scholarship in 2020. Kincaid looks like a late-bloomer on paper due to his age and five-year collegiate career, but he is still young in terms of football experience.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has Kincaid graded as the No. 2 option in the class and compares him to Zach Ertz. His closest comps in our model are Dallas Goedert and Gerald Everett. Our data sample is limited, but since the 2017 class, 75% of the prospects to grade above the 85th percentile have enjoyed a top-12 finish in their first three seasons.
While the TE learning curve is real, Kincaid is underpriced in best ball and dynasty formats. He shouldn’t be going so far after Michael Mayer considering how closely the two grade out as Tier 1 prospects.
💨 Michael Mayer | Notre Dame | 6’4 1/2 and 249 lbs.
Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 86th percentile
Underdog ADP: TE18, Round 15
Rookie Rank: TE1, No. 12 Overall
Mayer is the all-time leader for receptions, receiving yards and TDs by a Notre Dame TE. He earned a starting role as a freshman and broke out with a 25% dominator as a sophomore before delivering a sparkling 37% mark in his junior season.
Before the 2022 season, Mayer’s expected draft capital was in the mid-first round, but that has recently fallen toward late-first-round territory after subpar testing at the NFL Combine.
Despite the concerns, Mayer appears to be a safe bet to earn first-round capital, and he was an absolute target magnet in South Bend. He upped his target share every season (18%, 24% and 36%) and had a career average of 24% in targets per route run (TPRR). Over his career, he accounted for 28% of the Irish’s TDs in games where he laced up the cleats.
His 60th-percentile career YPRR (1.95) and 65th-percentile best YPRR (2.33) are second to only Kincaid for Power Five prospects in the 2023 class. However, while he has flashed elite target earning upside, his lower aDOT and explosive play rate weren’t as strong as Kincaid's.
Mayer’s 39th-percentile career aDOT (8.0) and 51st-percentile explosive target rate (22%) align with his lackluster combine performance – at least on the surface. He was also slightly below average in yards after the catch (YAC), with 4.9 yards per reception. The NCAA average since 2014 for TEs with at least 200 routes and an aDOT between seven and nine yards was 5.4.
The closest comp for Mayer in our Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model is T.J. Hockenson. We shouldn’t have concerns about clicking on him late in the first or second round of rookie drafts and his best ball ADP is reasonable if you want exposure. Mayer is the safest TE prospect in the class, but Kincaid’s profile suggests a higher ceiling.
View the rest of Dwain's TE Super Model rankings
❗ MAJOR free agency addition. Fantasy Life is building a dream team.
🧨 This rookie RB is EXPLOSIVE. Don’t sleep on him.
🐆 A star NFL WR is planning to "call it quits" sooner rather than later. Hint: He’s fast fast.
🐎 The Colts desperately need a QB. They accordingly held a private workout with one of the draft's top prospects.
🌴 A longtime Falcons, Cardinals and Jaguars DL is hanging up the cleats. Happy retirement!
❓ NFL players can wear the number "zero" in 2023. There are five confirmed cases so far.
✈️ The Jets add an ex-Packers QB. Not the one you think!
🤬 When will Aaron Rodgers be traded? We (might) have a timeline.
What follows is the first edition of Ian's 2023 fantasy football TE tiers. The players are ranked in order inside of the specific tiers; just realize the disparity is far wider between tiers than individual rankings. Current Underdog Fantasy ADP and specific pick numbers are also noted.
🐐 Tier 1: The (fantasy) TE GOAT (TE1)
TE1: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
Underdog ADP: TE1 (6.1)
Key question: Is Kelce’s age high enough to concern yourself with at this point?
Meh. While Kelce does turn 34 in October, TE has historically produced elderly fantasy stars at a far higher rate than RB or WR.
Nothing about Kelce’s underlying data seemed to indicate there was a true dropoff in performance; the man remains plenty capable of putting even the league’s best corners into a blender.
💀 https://t.co/w8sTYAw46T
Kelce has worked as the overall PPR TE1 in six of the last seven years.
Read that sentence again. Madness. Continue to fire up Patrick Mahomes’ undisputed No. 1 pass-game option as the top-overall player at the position in fantasy land.
🚀 Tier 2: Overall TE2 upside (TE2-6)
TE2: Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson
Underdog ADP: TE3 (43.9)
Key question: Just how good was Hockenson with the Vikings?
Pretty, pretty, pretty good. The ex-Lions TE played 10 full games with the Vikings after being traded in early November:
- Week 9: 9 receptions-70 yards-0 TD (9 targets)
- Week 10: 7-45-0 (10)
- Week 11: 5-34-0 (9)
- Week 12: 5-43-1 (6)
- Week 13: 4-33-0 (6)
- Week 14: 6-77-0 (8)
- Week 15: 3-33-0 (9)
- Week 16: 13-109-2 (16)
- Week 17: 7-59-0 (12)
- Wild Card: 10-129-0 (11)
17-game pace: 117-1,074-5 on 163 targets. Not too shabby!
The decision to release Adam Thielen is only good news for Hockenson’s continued chances of demanding an awful lot of targets. New No. 2 TE Josh Oliver has caught just 26 passes in 35 career games; Justin Jefferson is the only person expected to see more weekly pass-game volume in this offense ahead of 2023.
Top-10 in both yards per route run (1.73, No. 6) and PFF receiving grade (76.4, No. 9) last season (including playoffs), Hockenson is a very good real-life talent with one of the position’s most fantasy-friendly roles. He’s my overall TE2 at the moment, with the next two players on this list having so much uncertainty under center.
TE3: Ravens TE Mark Andrews
Underdog ADP: TE2 (41)
Key question: Was last year a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come for Andrews?
I lean towards the former. While Andrews’ 2022 campaign was widely viewed as a disappointment, he did still finish as the TE3 in PPR points per game. The extended absence of Lamar Jackson as well as lingering knee and shoulder issues didn’t help; the larger problem was Andrews falling well behind Travis Kelce just one season after snatching away his TE1 fantasy crown.
Still, Andrews’ status as the Ravens’ clear-cut No. 1 pass-game option continued to yield excessive fantasy-friendly opportunities relative to everyone at the position other than Kelce. Only six TEs averaged at least 11 expected PPR points per game last season:
Kelce (17.2 expected PPR points per game)
Andrews (14)
Zach Ertz (13)
T.J. Hockenson (12.9)
Dalton Schultz (11)
Kyle Pitts (11)
Fast forward to 2023, and so far, the only newfound target competition for Andrews is … Nelson Agholor.
While I would take George Kittle ahead of Andrews in a real-life draft, the Ravens’ rising sixth-year talent figures to see far more volume inside of this rather depleted passing attack.
The NFL Draft is approaching, and we have a HUGE mock draft for you. We can’t fit 31 picks into the newsletter, so our resident draft betting expert, Eliot Crist, is dropping by to let you know who his #1 pick is.
6’3, 214lbs, 21 years old
Rookie Rank: QB:2, Superflex: 3
While Stroud is my number one QB in the draft there is no bias involved in this selection.
The Panthers traded away multiple first-round picks and D.J. Moore, knowing Stroud was their guy. Strouds' odds shot up from +175 to now -330 on DraftKings Sportsbook after the trade. Yesterday’s Chris Mortenson “report”moved the odds back down to -130, however that report was misrepresented and was really for a mock draft.
https://t.co/eMkctdBUyV
